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@Donsteppa said in US Politics:
So ultimately US consumers will pay for the wall by paying higher prices to cover import tariffs in order to make the Mexicans pay for the wall.
Add in scrapping of the TPPA (grrr) and threatened renegotiation of seemingly every trade deal under the sun, and this is starting to look like a building a set of economic policies that Fortress NZ and Sir Robert Muldoon would have been very proud of.
Short term it'll look great with loudly shouted headlines of X number of jobs repatriated by company Y etc. In the long run I suspect someone else will have to clear up the mess of relatively lower US domestic consumption based on higher prices and a range of subsequent flow on effects. The US does have a huge domestic market to work with unlike Muldoon, but the rest of the world won't be standing still either.
Beyond the sabre rattling in the South China Sea, I suspect the people who are really delighted are the Chinese. Given they generally take a much longer horizon to politics and the economy than "look what Trump has done in one week!", "Look at the Dow Jones!" they'll be rubbing their hand with glee at countries dependent on exports to the US now looking even more to the next biggest game in town - and China will be looking to the long term possibilities and advantages.
As for Mexico, it sounds like their dependency on exports to the US is roughly similar to NZ having almost all export eggs in the UK basket prior to the UK joining the Common Market. Short run pain for Mexico is inevitable, but in the long run both Mexico and the USA might find out that the USA is still a huge deal... but isn't the only game in town.
What?
That is some A Grade wishful thinking on behalf of Mexico. -
I never said they weren't in big trouble in the short run....
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@Donsteppa said in US Politics:
I never said they weren't in big trouble in the short run....
I know.... it was the long run optimism.
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I can't figure Mexico's options out either, but then we took a while. I'm fuzzy on my trade history, but arguably it was 20 years before we recovered from our overreliance on exports to the UK? (And other shocks around the time in the mix). Mexico is a tough one to figure out given they'd need China to make one heck of s shift towards a consumption driven economy before they can send their lower ost manufacturing products there.
From a US point of view there's a range of reasons they started losing their manufacturing off shore... can a golden manufacturing/onshoring age really be brought back to America (First), or is it just holding back the tide until the pressures build up and a Rogernome takes over?
Mexico did have some somewhat reasonable economies nearby to do more trade with... until the likes of Chavez fucked them up...
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This side of things may start to get interesting as the Trump administration develops (the word was interesting, not earth shattering or a huge challenge to All Hail Trump's reign before people on both sides get too excited).
Employers are often the biggest beneficiaries of skilled migration, though for a range of reasons they are usually silent on the public debate that surrounds immigration.
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@Donsteppa said in US Politics:
From a US point of view there's a range of reasons they started losing their manufacturing off shore... can a golden manufacturing/onshoring age really be brought back to America (First), or is it just holding back the tide until the pressures build up and a Rogernome takes over?
I think the latter is nigh impossible in the traditional sense. What the US needs to do is look at onshore companies who aren't just cranking out the same old stuff, but doing something different. Something where superior QA is going to set them apart. That might need government subsidy but it could stabilise their domestic situation, get some jobs going again and make them overwhelmingly a net exporter.
Infrastructure is probably going to be a massive stimulus, and has the extra positive effect of helping underpin further productivity. Even moreso if they're not giving the work to offshore companies
I think a bigger issue is to tackle the financial sector as it relates to housing. That can take some pressure off the citizenry while at the same time giving them jobs to pay for that housing.
On a loosely related measure: implement housing efficiency legislation. The US can put in a hell of a lot of work on better construction practice during this reform, and lower their emissions while they're at it. Then they become a hub for exporting those products to the region.
They become internally stable with construction industries right across both domestic and industrial levels, give themselves an economic kick in the guts, and advance a range of technologies to do it.
If Trump masters that kind of thing, no-one will care that the top end of town are still making gazillions.
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@NTA I got bored half way through but gave you a like because that is a very thorough looking post! ;). Seriously though, I'd imagine that most illegals would be far more concerned with staying under the radar than risking exposure by casting a vote.
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Good to see President Trump continuing to keep his promises.
Interestingly - 6 of the 7 countries on the Trump's ban list permanently disallow Israelis from their countries. (Iran, Iraq, Libya, Sudan Syria and Yemen).
And Obama had a 6 month Iraq refugee ban in 2011.
Different times, different measures.
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If USA wants to ban certain nationalities temporarily, whatever. If they're worried about terrorism in the US, Saudi Arabia should really be on that list as well, but this is a good PR move for his base.
Signing such an order without an exception for current visa holders, especially residence visa holders (green cards) is terrible.
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Good article here about the number of times Trump has been destroyed:
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@Rancid-Schnitzel said in US Politics:
Good article here about the number of times Trump has been destroyed:
Yep, the amount of times that Trump in particular (but also other public figures at time) get "destroyed", "slammed" and occasionally even "schooled" or "owned" in the media and on Facebook stories beggars belief.
Part Trump and part buzzfeed-esque race to the bottom of coverage...
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@NTA said in US Politics:
It's good smokescreen politics. Wonder what they're up to while the outrage is going on?
That gets a little bit too close to tinfoil hat stuff though. Occasionally stuff does get buried the Friday before a long weekend, but politicians can work on more than one thing at once/more than one issue can be topical.
In the case of the Trump administration, they promised to do a whole lot of things and that's now what they're moving on. The oil pipeline has got some coverage that I've seen, it's just buried in the mix of every other story that's triggering an avalanche of outrage/good on him stories, posts etc.
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@Donsteppa said in US Politics:
In the case of the Trump administration, they promised to do a whole lot of things and that's now what they're moving on. The oil pipeline has got some coverage that I've seen, it's just buried in the mix of every other story that's triggering an avalanche of outrage/good on him stories, posts etc.
There's plenty to choose from!
US Politics