Hong Kong
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@Hooroo Something like this:
I can't remember the figure exactly but the amount of pro-democracy people protesting amounted to most of the country. That will take quite some quashing and I'm not sure anyone will want to risk coming to their aid.
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@Rembrandt said in Hong Kong:
@Hooroo Something like this:
I can't remember the figure exactly but the amount of pro-democracy people protesting amounted to most of the country. That will take quite some quashing and I'm not sure anyone will want to risk coming to their aid.
Yeah but it isn't a democratic process. They are under China rule so they need to bear the consequences if they don't obey? Surely?
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@Donsteppa said in Hong Kong:
Despite the best rhetoric of the NRA, I'm not sure how the second amendment really enables citizens to stand up to the modern US military/government, nor how the right to arms would enable Hong Kong residents in any confrontation with a modern day army.
Probably should be on a thread of its own but I'm not so sure. If it were a case of simply destroying a location then sure military will win every time, but if its a case of occupation against resistance it could be very different. Compare the volume of hunters by State in the US vs country army sizes. At the very least an invading force would have to think very carefully about what they are doing, its an expensive business and could leave them vulnerable on other fronts especially with potential modern day independent media optics.
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@Rembrandt said in Hong Kong:
@Hooroo Yeah that does seem off, they had some method of working it out on the report but I can't find it, they were pretty massive though.
So it has happened before with a similar volume? I don't see this lasting very long.
China can and will play the long game
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The whole thing saddens me deeply. Hong Kong is my second home and I still have many friends there. I gave up my right to vote a couple of months ago as I haven't been there for 2 years now. It seems timely as a vote is worthless now anyway. I also lost might right to run for legislative council, also a pointless exercise it seems.
I have to say that I thought it would come to a head much earlier - just a few years after the handover - but Beijing have been gently, gently about it all. I suppose complete autonomy / democratic process was never likely and shouldn't have been expected. Just a shame and HK people are generally a passive apolitical group.
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So it has happened before with a similar volume? I don't see this lasting very long.
China can and will play the long gameYes happened before but not on this scale, I was living there at the time.
It is also much deeper than extradition. Democracy and self governance come into play. China will not allow another Taiwan. Hong Kong people don't want their chief executive to be Beijing appointed either, so going to take an awful lot of diplomacy to fix it, or it will go horribly wrong.
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So it has happened before with a similar volume? I don't see this lasting very long.
China can and will play the long gameYes happened before but not on this scale, I was living there at the time.
It is also much deeper than extradition. Democracy and self governance come into play. China will not allow another Taiwan. Hong Kong people don't want their chief executive to be Beijing appointed either, so going to take an awful lot of diplomacy to fix it, or it will go horribly wrong.
Realistically, what is "Horribly Wrong"?
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So it has happened before with a similar volume? I don't see this lasting very long.
China can and will play the long gameYes happened before but not on this scale, I was living there at the time.
It is also much deeper than extradition. Democracy and self governance come into play. China will not allow another Taiwan. Hong Kong people don't want their chief executive to be Beijing appointed either, so going to take an awful lot of diplomacy to fix it, or it will go horribly wrong.
Realistically, what is "Horribly Wrong"?
Complete Beijing control through military power. Remember Tiananmen Square was a very similar democratic protest?1989? "Official" figures at around 300 dead (read into that what you will).
That, to me, is horribly wrong.
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So it has happened before with a similar volume? I don't see this lasting very long.
China can and will play the long gameYes happened before but not on this scale, I was living there at the time.
It is also much deeper than extradition. Democracy and self governance come into play. China will not allow another Taiwan. Hong Kong people don't want their chief executive to be Beijing appointed either, so going to take an awful lot of diplomacy to fix it, or it will go horribly wrong.
Realistically, what is "Horribly Wrong"?
Complete Beijing control through military power. Remember Tiananmen Square was a very similar democratic protest?1989? "Official" figures at around 300 dead (read into that what you will).
That, to me, is horribly wrong.
Can you see that happening in this day in age? I can't. Sure, they maybe casualties that should have been prevented but I don't see 100's dead sort of thing
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Lam’s press conference yesterday was very telling of the predicament HK find themselves. From a political perspective going into that presser knowing the protests have been going on for almost 3 months and not being able to provide any answers was always going to be carnage.
She has no authority and her position is largely symbolic now. China can’t get rid of her because whether they appreciate it or not, that would inflame and escalate the protests. On the other hand she can’t do anything about the legislation.
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So it has happened before with a similar volume? I don't see this lasting very long.
China can and will play the long gameYes happened before but not on this scale, I was living there at the time.
It is also much deeper than extradition. Democracy and self governance come into play. China will not allow another Taiwan. Hong Kong people don't want their chief executive to be Beijing appointed either, so going to take an awful lot of diplomacy to fix it, or it will go horribly wrong.
Realistically, what is "Horribly Wrong"?
Complete Beijing control through military power. Remember Tiananmen Square was a very similar democratic protest?1989? "Official" figures at around 300 dead (read into that what you will).
That, to me, is horribly wrong.
Can you see that happening in this day in age? I can't. Sure, they maybe casualties that should have been prevented but I don't see 100's dead sort of thing
Really? It wasn't expected in 1989 either. Things escalate and it will depend on the protesters as well.
Beijing will do whatever they see fit to retain control of Hong Kong. I just hope that it doesn't happen.
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So it has happened before with a similar volume? I don't see this lasting very long.
China can and will play the long gameYes happened before but not on this scale, I was living there at the time.
It is also much deeper than extradition. Democracy and self governance come into play. China will not allow another Taiwan. Hong Kong people don't want their chief executive to be Beijing appointed either, so going to take an awful lot of diplomacy to fix it, or it will go horribly wrong.
Realistically, what is "Horribly Wrong"?
Complete Beijing control through military power. Remember Tiananmen Square was a very similar democratic protest?1989? "Official" figures at around 300 dead (read into that what you will).
That, to me, is horribly wrong.
Can you see that happening in this day in age? I can't. Sure, they maybe casualties that should have been prevented but I don't see 100's dead sort of thing
Really? It wasn't expected in 1989 either. Things escalate and it will depend on the protesters as well.
Beijing will do whatever they see fit to retain control of Hong Kong. I just hope that it doesn't happen.
I think the difference between now and 30 years ago is that China won't want all the footage of carnage being televised throughout the world. That won't help things in their favour.
I also need to say that I am fairly ignorant around this but I don't see this turning into a small massacre.
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So it has happened before with a similar volume? I don't see this lasting very long.
China can and will play the long gameYes happened before but not on this scale, I was living there at the time.
It is also much deeper than extradition. Democracy and self governance come into play. China will not allow another Taiwan. Hong Kong people don't want their chief executive to be Beijing appointed either, so going to take an awful lot of diplomacy to fix it, or it will go horribly wrong.
Realistically, what is "Horribly Wrong"?
Complete Beijing control through military power. Remember Tiananmen Square was a very similar democratic protest?1989? "Official" figures at around 300 dead (read into that what you will).
That, to me, is horribly wrong.
Can you see that happening in this day in age? I can't. Sure, they maybe casualties that should have been prevented but I don't see 100's dead sort of thing
Really? It wasn't expected in 1989 either. Things escalate and it will depend on the protesters as well.
Beijing will do whatever they see fit to retain control of Hong Kong. I just hope that it doesn't happen.
I think the difference between now and 30 years ago is that China won't want all the footage of carnage being televised throughout the world. That won't help things in their favour.
I also need to say that I am fairly ignorant around this but I don't see this turning into a small massacre.
Hope that you are correct and yes you are coming across as slightly naive. 30 years ago Beijing were made to look bad politically, so they quashed it. Beijing are generally pretty passive but if this makes them look bad - like 1989- who knows? Already using rubber bullets, tear gas, etc, some pretty strong tactics to break up protests and that is just HK police. Let the PLA in there...
"Beijing’s condemnation has become more ominous, with warnings that those who play with fire will “perish by it.” Was one quote that I read from a spokesperson. Hopefully it is all bluff, but they know how to wield the sword.
I am obviously more emotionally invested in this than most, but I also have some experience.
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The upside to these protests is the world is seeing the true nature of China more clearly.
Due to its economic power and totalitarian ways, it looms as by far the most dangerous threat to Western civilization.
Would love to see it take a hard tumble or for Europe and America to unite against it, pulling their money and companies out. -
So it has happened before with a similar volume? I don't see this lasting very long.
China can and will play the long gameYes happened before but not on this scale, I was living there at the time.
It is also much deeper than extradition. Democracy and self governance come into play. China will not allow another Taiwan. Hong Kong people don't want their chief executive to be Beijing appointed either, so going to take an awful lot of diplomacy to fix it, or it will go horribly wrong.
Realistically, what is "Horribly Wrong"?
Complete Beijing control through military power. Remember Tiananmen Square was a very similar democratic protest?1989? "Official" figures at around 300 dead (read into that what you will).
That, to me, is horribly wrong.
Can you see that happening in this day in age? I can't. Sure, they maybe casualties that should have been prevented but I don't see 100's dead sort of thing
Really? It wasn't expected in 1989 either. Things escalate and it will depend on the protesters as well.
Beijing will do whatever they see fit to retain control of Hong Kong. I just hope that it doesn't happen.
I think the difference between now and 30 years ago is that China won't want all the footage of carnage being televised throughout the world. That won't help things in their favour.
I also need to say that I am fairly ignorant around this but I don't see this turning into a small massacre.
I don’t think they give a fuck what the world thinks , they don’t care what anyone thinks about this
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So it has happened before with a similar volume? I don't see this lasting very long.
China can and will play the long gameYes happened before but not on this scale, I was living there at the time.
It is also much deeper than extradition. Democracy and self governance come into play. China will not allow another Taiwan. Hong Kong people don't want their chief executive to be Beijing appointed either, so going to take an awful lot of diplomacy to fix it, or it will go horribly wrong.
Realistically, what is "Horribly Wrong"?
Complete Beijing control through military power. Remember Tiananmen Square was a very similar democratic protest?1989? "Official" figures at around 300 dead (read into that what you will).
That, to me, is horribly wrong.
Can you see that happening in this day in age? I can't. Sure, they maybe casualties that should have been prevented but I don't see 100's dead sort of thing
Really? It wasn't expected in 1989 either. Things escalate and it will depend on the protesters as well.
Beijing will do whatever they see fit to retain control of Hong Kong. I just hope that it doesn't happen.
I think the difference between now and 30 years ago is that China won't want all the footage of carnage being televised throughout the world. That won't help things in their favour.
I also need to say that I am fairly ignorant around this but I don't see this turning into a small massacre.
I don’t think they give a fuck what the world thinks , they don’t care what anyone thinks about this
I think they are smart enough to know that if there is a massacre in Hong Kong led by the mainland, the economic impact would be substantial enough to potentially cripple them.
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@Snowy I think they will do whatever they feel they need too to get the desired outcome. As you mentioned they've already been applying pressure through strong arm tactics, and I'd expect that will escalate into broader violence which is tragic. I know a couple of old school mates who have set their lives up over there and have absolutely loved the place - really sad that that HK is being swept away.
Weren't all those white shirted hoods from a 'gang'? I'd expect their numbers to grow substantially and for them to look much fitter and more 'militant' if China takes a non-uniformed approach.@Frank what the international community will do around HK as a trade and business hub is interesting. Will it be a shadow of it's former self under tighter Chinese rule? will everyone gap it? where do they go!? crazy stuff.
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@Snowy from the people you know in HK, are they pretty informed on how dangerous China is to them?
I have a mate originally from a Chinese coastal city whose pretty woke to it all mainly due to the HK influence in his city. Has some pretty incredible stories, the government reach is pretty long and there are approaches from government types even in foreign countries (had one such occurrence when we were at a movie together). He writes about it but all under an assumed name due to the danger to his family. Reading stories like the below doesn't surprise me in the least, add in huge re-education camps and organ harvesting from political prisoners and you can see why HK folk need to stand up hard right now regardless of consequences.