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I have no idea what the opposition are trying to do.
If they vote this down I just don't see where it all goes. -
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
I have no idea what the opposition are trying to do.
If they vote this down I just don't see where it all goes.I suspect there are going to be quite a few from opposition parties who vote for it. But I still think it will lose. And then ...
@MajorRage said in Brexit:
I get that people are entrenched, but I firmly believe people are no longer voting in country's interest. Here's my prediction:
Parliament doesn't back it, general election gets called.
Boris & Co go to every single constituent who voted leave and the MP voted against the deal (this is likely to be 150+)
Conservatives win around 48% of what's required.
Conservatives go around all parties and say, only prepared to team up with anybody who agrees to vote for this deal.Somebody caves. Most likely the Brexit party.
Done.
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
Can anybody wade on here and smash my opinions and thoughts to pieces?
I need a contrarian. I've just had 45 mins discussion with colleagues .. and we essentially all agree. Worrying.
London centric.
Commute to London centric. But there's all walks here.
Apart from Corbyn supporters.
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
@MajorRage said in Brexit:
Can anybody wade on here and smash my opinions and thoughts to pieces?
I need a contrarian. I've just had 45 mins discussion with colleagues .. and we essentially all agree. Worrying.
London centric.
Commute to London centric. But there's all walks here.
Apart from Corbyn supporters.
I tried.
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
Can anybody wade on here and smash my opinions and thoughts to pieces?
I need a contrarian. I've just had 45 mins discussion with colleagues .. and we essentially all agree. Worrying.
I'd like to try but sadly I think you're on the money. The deal, such as it is, seems to be essentially May's deal but instead of a hard border between NI and the republic, there is a semi-hard border in the Irish Sea. Now I can see how this sits a little better on the island of Ireland but not sure that it's a solution in re the UK and I'm not sure there IS a solution either.
However, I am beginning to think, that apart from the DUP and Sein Fein, the Irish problem is just a hook to hang the coat on. The real, underlying issue is a reluctance to leave the EU and party politics. Neither of which are being dealt with in Boris' deal. So sadly I fear your predicted outcome is highly likely. Where this takes us aside from becoming even more divided I don't know.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
If they vote this down I just don't see where it all goes.
Extension then a General Election.
Parliament v People. BoJo wins. Brexit done
Bojo loses. Brexit chaos for another year, then 2nd Referendum.
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@Catogrande said in Brexit:
However, I am beginning to think, that apart from the DUP and Sein Fein, the Irish problem is just a hook to hang the coat on. The real, underlying issue is a reluctance to leave the EU and party politics
Pretty much on the nail. Some MPs were calling for a 2nd referendum or saying it was "advisory only" within hours of the 2016 result. They are now calling for another vote as "we didn't know it was going to be so difficult" or "to confirm the deal". Strange they didn't say that before the referendum result they expected to win. Even stranger that they don't see how transparent they are.
I used to think the Eurosceptics were nuts (still do) but the Remain side have become crazier. The Lib Dem's position appears to be to have another referendum and if Leave win again, to refuse to implement the result.
Labour's position is to get another deal, put that to a public vote and campaign against the deal they have just negotiated. Yes, really.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Brexit:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
If they vote this down I just don't see where it all goes.
Extension then a General Election.
Parliament v People. BoJo wins. Brexit done
Bojo loses. Brexit chaos for another year, then 2nd Referendum.
I wish I shared your binary outcome view but I really think that the NI issue will continue to be problematical even if Boris wins a people v parliament GE. This raises issues about the Good Friday agreement, support from the US (possibility of trade deals being dependent on same) and the whole future of NI within the UK.
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Think Norn Iron will be less of an issue now there's no border on the island. BoJo's deal seems to have the support of SF. the moderate Unionists and Dublin. Interestingly, heard a NI business leader praising the deal as it gave NI access to the EU AND the UK - inc. any FTA's (eg. the US) the UK makes.
FWIW, I sense that any FTA between the EU & the UK will be pretty close to the current NI/UK/EU arrangement. There's really no realistic alternative for either side.
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@Catogrande said in Brexit:
The deal, such as it is, seems to be essentially May's deal but instead of a hard border between NI and the republic, there is a semi-hard border in the Irish Sea.
What hypothetical changes could have been made to the WA to have made is substantively different then?
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Pretty much go along with your analysis although I hold out a 10% chance that enough Labour members will vote this deal through on Saturday. If they do it will be as a group en mass, so wouldn't come together until the final 24 hours.
...thank you.
While I have the touch ABs by 40 today then.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback yeah can't access either. Laugh is at him complying with the Benn act by sending a letter requesting an extension..except this letter was a photocopy and not signed and then he followed it up with a letter explaining he was forced to send the letter and another letter which was signed saying they didnt want a delay. Its detailed on his Telegram account (probably from twitter) as to what this all means I don't think anyone really knows.
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Johnson sent the letter asking for an extension (albeit very reluctantly) under the terms of the Benn Act. That is all that matters legally and constitutionally. The Prime Minister is not above the law.
There is a chance Macron might veto an extension, but my guess is he will press for a very short extension to get the Brexit deal over the line. Macron and Johnson are now on the same side. Both want the UK out of the EU as soon as possible and for the withdrawal agreement to pass the House of Commons.
A veto from Poland and Hungary is less likely in my opinion. The V4 will though press for a swift trade deal with the UK and very close relations with the UK post-Brexit.
The non-signing and the other letter matter a lot politically and are cunning moves, even if his opponents see them as childish. Johnson is rapidly hoovering up the Leave vote and even the soft Remain vote for himself and the Conservatives. He is a very good bet for the General Election when it eventually comes.
Letwin and co won a constitutional battle tonight, but Johnson is still winning the political war.
Brexit