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@mariner4life said in Aussie Politics:
That poll really means nothing.
I disagree. It quantifies the general feeling on the ground, which is that he's made a mess of it. There was a chance it was just a lot of media noise which most people ignored while on their summer break.
He loses a couple of points, whatever. But to have such a large drop means that the media were broadly right and it has hurt him plenty.
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@barbarian said in Aussie Politics:
@mariner4life said in Aussie Politics:
That poll really means nothing.
I disagree. It quantifies the general feeling on the ground, which is that he's made a mess of it. There was a chance it was just a lot of media noise which most people ignored while on their summer break.
He loses a couple of points, whatever. But to have such a large drop means that the media were broadly right and it has hurt him plenty.
Hurt him how? I guess he could be rolled by someone in his party but there’s no election any time soon . Maybe more of the public think he’s a cock than usual I guess .
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@jegga said in Aussie Politics:
Hurt him how? I guess he could be rolled by someone in his party but there’s no election any time soon . Maybe more of the public think he’s a cock than usual I guess .
It's recast the entire political landscape, at least for the first half of 2020.
Morrison has now lost his 'man of the people' mantra. He's lost his buffer in the polls. He is under pressure to do more on climate change, but will also be under pressure not to do too much. He's had his first real test of leadership and in the eyes of most it's one he has failed.
Albanese hasn't announced a policy yet, and was going to use 2020 to slowly develop a platform to take to the next election. Now he's unexpectedly leading the race, and Labor will definitely be thinking about doing far less than they maybe first anticipated they would.
Now I don't think people will be thinking about the fires when they cast their vote in 2022, but it will certainly set in motion a chain of events that will see 2020 look very different to what we previously may have thought.
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There is no doubt Morrison's performance the past month has been sub par filled with some absolute clangers. But much like masoginist/luddite stitch up on Abbott at the start of the decade by the entire media left of Piers Akermann he has been defending himself against the impossible IMO. The 08-09 Busfire season, where Rudd had ~150 fatalities and his visits to these communities are regarded as one of the sole positive moments of his premiership. The media so poisoned the well before Morrison returned from Hawai'i that there was simply no winning. We are currently at 29 fatalities.
I agree with @barbarian - it's terminal for Morrison.
Albo is a very underrated operator and if you chart his career has probably the best radar for mainstream Australia since Howard. The current cabinet is built to similar specifications as @Mick-Gold-Coast-QLD described earlier so it's difficult to see a viable challenger.
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@rotated said in Aussie Politics:
There is no doubt Morrison's performance the past month has been sub par filled with some absolute clangers. But much like masoginist/luddite stitch up on Abbott at the start of the decade by the entire media left of Piers Akermann he has been defending himself against the impossible IMO. The 08-09 Busfire season, where Rudd had ~150 fatalities and his visits to these communities are regarded as one of the sole positive moments of his premiership. The media so poisoned the well before Morrison returned from Hawai'i that there was simply no winning. We are currently at 29 fatalities.
True enough, but the trip to Hawai'i was a big blunder. The trip itself was poorly timed and chosen (I think it would be very different if he was just in Noosa), and his office tried to cover it up for days before it came out. He also took his sweet time to come back.
It went down really badly with the wider public. But broadly speaking I think people are willing to chalk up an error like that every now and again. The real damage came when he tried to visit Cobargo and other towns.
He's already on the back foot, with the Hawaii trip losing him the benefit of the doubt in the eyes of the public. And he goes in to a struggling town and makes a series of blunders, walking away mid-conversation from a young woman, forcing a weird handshake with a firefighter, turning up to devastated areas without so much as a case of bottled water.
After that people have been far less forgiving. If it had been Gladys, I think she would have been forgiven as she's been handling the situation pretty well thus far. But Morrison had already gone missing once, and then he stuffed up his first foray into the field.
Sections of the media have over-egged it, sure. But I do think it they have broadly mirrored the wider public reaction.
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Sounds like the same premature assessments of Trump and Boris, and the polling data.
All those predictions severely underestimated the thoughtfulness of the voters too.
You may be right eventually but recent history shows that the incessantly noisy and disparaging media doesn't actually reflect the mood of the populace very accurately.
Who knows, except to say that political predictions aren't following msm messages
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@rotated said in Aussie Politics:
But much like masoginist/luddite stitch up on Abbott at the start of the decade by the entire media left
Really??? I'm no leftie, but Abbott deserved everyone he got. His demise was entirely of his own making, his complete refusal to listen to his electorate was astounding.
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I'm no believer in polling numbers, but there is a big difference in analysing a poll with a looming election (as in the case of Boris or Brexit or Trump) and analysing the drop in popularity after a particular event or crisis.
Morrison has had a 11% increase in his disapproval rating, and a nine point drop in his preferred PM rating. Even accounting for the inaccuracy of the polls, that is a significiant fall from grace.
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@voodoo said in Aussie Politics:
@rotated said in Aussie Politics:
But much like masoginist/luddite stitch up on Abbott at the start of the decade by the entire media left
Really??? I'm no leftie, but Abbott deserved everyone he got. His demise was entirely of his own making, his complete refusal to listen to his electorate was astounding.
In a tactical sense he definately charted the course of his own demise whilst Prime Minister (that's another topic). The media giving legitimacy to the allegations by Gillard and others that he was a misogynist and presenting his socially conservative views as being hostile despite all evidence being to the contrary ultimately hastened his speedy decline in popularity.
Similarly with Morrison it is a case of throw enough mud and enough will stick. No one has quite pointed out what he could have done to avoid this catastrophe since assuming office in Sep 2018, nor does anyone seem to be willing to outright accuse him of being ambivalent to what is going on - so I am not quite sure why there is such hostility toward him.
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@barbarian said in Aussie Politics:
True enough, but the trip to Hawai'i was a big blunder. The trip itself was poorly timed and chosen (I think it would be very different if he was just in Noosa), and his office tried to cover it up for days before it came out. He also took his sweet time to come back.
It went down really badly with the wider public. But broadly speaking I think people are willing to chalk up an error like that every now and again. The real damage came when he tried to visit Cobargo and other towns.
Agree 100% - which must be a first.
Outside of a rip tide, nothing is going to kill an Aussie PM more than going out into the electorate and bumbling about seeming like a fish out of water. My point is simply the reason places like Cobargo and Nelligen were so specifically hostile towards Morrison was because the media whipped them up into a frenzy. If they had done their job and explained that the response broadly was a state responsibility then it likely would not have been as hostile reaction as it was.
That said if he can slip off his WWJD bracelet and slip on a WWJohnHowardD bracelet things may turn around for him. And for what it's worth and to tie it back to the Ardern article posted earlier in the week - if Morrison was a mother of two daughters aged 10 and 12 I don't think the backlash for the Hawai'i trip would have been nearly the same FWIW.
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@rotated said in Aussie Politics:
Similarly with Morrison it is a case of throw enough mud and enough will stick. No one has quite pointed out what he could have done to avoid this catastrophe since assuming office in Sep 2018, nor does anyone seem to be willing to outright accuse him of being ambivalent to what is going on - so I am not quite sure why there is such hostility toward him.
I think a lot of it is that people are angry with the whole situation and need to direct that somewhere. By his own blunders (which didn't matter a jot in the grand scheme of things), Morrison put the target on his back and has received the brunt of that anger. Whether it's justified is another thing entirely.
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@rotated said in Aussie Politics:
Outside of a rip tide, nothing is going to kill an Aussie PM more than going out into the electorate and bumbling about seeming like a fish out of water. My point is simply the reason places like Cobargo and Nelligen were so specifically hostile towards Morrison was because the media whipped them up into a frenzy. If they had done their job and explained that the response broadly was a state responsibility then it likely would not have been as hostile reaction as it was.
From what I have heard from people who know the area, I think Cobargo and Nelligen may well have been hostile to a Liberal PM regardless of the situation and the real blunder was going to those towns in the first place.
But I agree with your broader point.
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This is a really sad story and shows just how damaging the online mobs/cancel culture can be to young people.
This excerpt from the article explains well the driving force behind this. It's pathetic and people that engage in these online attacks are horrible people.
Why the mob attacks
While the many examples of pile-ons have been in response to an individual or company's misdeeds, some academics believe the motivation for attacking is sometimes more selfish than the lofty goal of holding people to account.In an article for Psychology Today last month, Cambridge University PhD student and research scholar Rob Henderson wrote about the motives of "cancel culture".
Henderson cited research that shows respect and admiration from peers is more important to a sense of wellbeing than socio-economic status.
Boosting one's social status is "the most powerful motive underpinning cancel culture," he said, adding: "For social strivers, cancel culture has created new opportunities to move up by taking others down."
On top of that, cancel culture is an easier way of elevating "the status of oneself or one's group" than the alternative – doing something good.
"But doing something good requires effort and the possibility of failure," Henderson wrote. "Fortunately, another option exists: Broadcasting the bad behaviour of others … Indeed, research shows that people engage in moral grandstanding to enhance their social rank."
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12300435
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@No-Quarter Very sad situation. He was just a kid really, no where near able to deal with the fall out from such a protest in modern day Australia, add in being gay and the absolute worst thing of all 'conservative' and the knives were well and truly out for him. The 'peace, love, tolerance, diversity, lgbtqa+' groups were out in force online celebrating his suicide until admins suddenly realised just how bad it made them look when their mask slipped and hurriedly started to mass deleting comments.
The first minute of this video is worth watching from and interview he did recently.
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@barbarian said in Aussie Politics:
@rotated said in Aussie Politics:
Outside of a rip tide, nothing is going to kill an Aussie PM more than going out into the electorate and bumbling about seeming like a fish out of water. My point is simply the reason places like Cobargo and Nelligen were so specifically hostile towards Morrison was because the media whipped them up into a frenzy. If they had done their job and explained that the response broadly was a state responsibility then it likely would not have been as hostile reaction as it was.
From what I have heard from people who know the area, I think Cobargo and Nelligen may well have been hostile to a Liberal PM regardless of the situation and the real blunder was going to those towns in the first place.
But I agree with your broader point.
The central point is as you have identified - “the real blunder was going to those towns in the first place” – those least aware of the risks in public for the Prime Minister are the fortune tellers, tea leaf readers and soothsayers of the Liberal and Country Parties. I doubt they still have any.
Labor offered a case study in purpose and discipline from the ‘70’s to the early ‘90’s (not now though, they are back in the old war between Left and Right - Albosleazy will be lucky to still have his job in a year). The backroom heavies had learned from the marketing mistakes seen during Whitlam’s reign.
They installed persuasive minders for each political ego/electoral liability, to whisper in his ear when he was getting too far ahead of himself. Hawke had Mick Young, Senator Peter Walsh holding the whole of government purse strings, Lionel Bowen and Sir Peter Abeles; Gough had John Menadue; Neville Wran at State level had Jack Ferguson and Gerry Gleeson.
For the 2019 emergency - when it became clear what was brewing that generation of Labor would set about fixing the roster for the whole of summer – the personality best suited to the various geographic, workforce or business audiences (eg. don’t send Paul Keating to visit the volunteer firefighters, Tom Uren for the South Coast Centrelinkers, Barry Cohen and John Brown to speak with Batemans Bay and Blue Mountains business owners and tourism operators) and there is no way the top man would be exposed to any bad reactions – if the local Labor leaders could not guarantee a positive and closely controlled reception there would be no visit from anyone recognisable.
The summer time work experience kiddies appearing for the press would have their jobs made easy for them, with daily releases of data and talking points, all set out to match their channel’s format, handed to them by long experienced journalists who had landed well paid jobs in the PM’s and Premiers’ offices. With handsome expense accounts to shout lunch for inexperienced young media operatives.
The Liberals were never adept at this historically. Now there is no-one left who knows what to do ... and why! The parliamentary members are too distracted chanting “I have always believed in global warmening, oh yes I do!” anytime anyone looks sideways at them, and searching for someone to elect as leader now that the current one has lost a few popularity points in the poll for the next election, more than two years away.
On Nelligen - anyone who believed an outpost housing a population of 400, buried in dense bushland and steep terrain, with one road out west and east was not one of the highest risk, lowest priority places, was fooling themselves. They had plenty of warning to get out. What Scott Morrison or Billie the Purple Fella was expected to do about it is a mystery.
Why a bad tempered, terminally ignorant old fool believed the Prime Minister deserved "Get Effed" over it, on national television news, is also a mystery. He did demonstrate he is a reckless and dangerous driver who should not be operating plant owned by the taxpayer.
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In an astonishingly weird decision, the High Court has held that identifying as an Aboriginal makes you exempt from immigration laws. So violent shitbag born in New Zealand can't be extradited because his Australian mother is Aboriginal.
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@antipodean this decison seems ok to me in principle.
The identifying as aboriginal is clearly wrong tho. Either you are or you aren’t. Identity politics should play no part. So if this blokes Mum is, then he’s clearly aboriginal, no?
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@MajorRage said in Aussie Politics:
@antipodean this decison seems ok to me in principle.
I'd be interested in your take on this.
The identifying as aboriginal is clearly wrong tho. Either you are or you aren’t. Identity politics should play no part. So if this blokes Mum is, then he’s clearly aboriginal, no?
I don't understand why people hold to a declining percentage of their ancestry as the defining characteristic. Particularly for a non-citizen to prevent the democratically elected government from kicking him out of the country.
It's interesting that race as a scientific construct was debunked, but the same side of politics that did that to prevent them being treated harshly or unfairly now use it as a cultural construct to ensure they're treated beneficially.
The Migration Act and the Australian Citizenship Act 2007 (Cth) ("the Citizenship Act") are enacted under s 51(xix). The plaintiffs do not challenge the provisions of those statutes. They do not contend that the criteria stated in the Citizenship Act for Australian citizenship and the inference to be drawn from those criteria respecting the status of alien is not within the power given by s 51(xix). They contend that they are outside the purview of those statutes and s 51(xix) because they have a special status as a "non-citizen, non-alien". They say that they have that status because although they are non-citizens they cannot be aliens because they are Aboriginal persons.
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