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This Summer has been a bit of a tipping point here in Australia, though.
I think people are realising that we are going to cop the brunt of climate change, and the new reality is setting in - more intense droughts, fires, rains, storms, hot days etc.
It's moved from a fringe environmental issue firmly into the mainstream, from theory to reality. It's going to be interesting to see if the Morrison Government is forced to act on this issue, and what it is they choose to do to placate the growing angst in the wider public.
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@barbarian sure, but first how about a comprehensive national marketing campaign identifying and stigmatizing the act of arson?
Place arson in the minds of people similar to drink driving.
Let's have a hierarchy of measures starting at the source of the fires - people lighting them!
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Pretty sure arson is fairly well stigmatized as it is. Not sure the problem is that people are accepting of it, as they once were with drink driving.
I'm sure there will be a few enquiries that look at this subject in the aftermath of the fires, and the best way to address it. Not sure there is a silver bullet to prevent it from happening.
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@barbarian said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
This Summer has been a bit of a tipping point here in Australia, though.
I think people are realising that we are going to cop the brunt of climate change, and the new reality is setting in - more intense droughts, fires, rains, storms, hot days etc.
It's moved from a fringe environmental issue firmly into the mainstream, from theory to reality. It's going to be interesting to see if the Morrison Government is forced to act on this issue, and what it is they choose to do to placate the growing angst in the wider public.
Are the recent fires a direct result of human induced climate change? My limited understanding is the concern is around what may happen in the future rather than the now. I remember reading about Cyclones and scientists saying it was impossible to draw a direct link between them and climate change.
It seems to me there's a multitude of factors at play, but not a lot of nuance in the public conversation about it (which is typical of any public conversation really).
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@No-Quarter They aren't a direct result of climate change, in the sense that we have bushfires every year.
But the strength of the fires are exacerbated by the drought (so the country is very dry), and the more intense summer conditions we are experiencing. A delayed northern wet season has also contributed, pushing hot westerly winds across the south-east.
So it is related to climate change. There is nothing new about fires, or loss of property/life, but the extent of these fires is unprecedented.
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@barbarian great. No imagination for a campaign that visits all schools then. No upping the general awareness of what to do when suspecting an arsonist? No cameras in areas of population? No hot lines to call? No increased taskforce to tackle arson? No establishing a national database? No addressing the issue like Australia has done for paedophilia, or terrorism or hate speech?
No?
Just throw billions at a problem no one understands and "placate" the masses , and just sit through 10 years more of arson while we tackle climate change?
Sounds great.
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@No-Quarter said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
Are the recent fires a direct result of human induced climate change?
There's not much you can directly attribute to climate change. The best analogy I've seen is - say you increase gravity by 2%. Not much right, but you know the slipping/tripping/injuries will all be a bit worse. For each individual event you can say 'well, I should have lifted my foot further, or not dropped that thing, etc', but as a collective it changes the way people injure themselves. Climate change is a bit like that... individual weather events happen, but they just tend to be slightly more extreme, slightly more intense, etc.
Edit: found teh link
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@Siam said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
@barbarian great. No imagination for a campaign that visits all schools then. No upping the general awareness of what to do when suspecting an arsonist? No cameras in areas of population? No hot lines to call? No increased taskforce to tackle arson? No establishing a national database? No addressing the issue like Australia has done for paedophilia, or terrorism or hate speech?
No?
Just throw billions at a problem no one understands and "placate" the masses , and just sit through 10 years more of arson while we tackle climate change?
Sounds great.
Why all that effort for such a statistically small incident?
The problem remains the drought.
People can call 000 if they want to report arson.
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@Siam You couch the issue like it's one that can be easily solved. I'm no expert but I'm sure there are plenty of initiatives that the police use to catch arsonists - I know there is definitely a database that already exists, for example.
I'm all for doing everything we can to decrease incidents of arson, and I'm sure a few ideas will be aired in the inevitable enquiry/royal commission.
But we can do two things at once. We can tackle arson AND take action on climate change.
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@antipodean my bad. I thought over 50% of the fires started from human activity, hence tackle that first. I'm the first to admit I don't know much on the whole subject except that fires have been a large part and parcel of Aussie summers as long as humans have been there.
I thought dealing with Arson and load fuels would be the first step in reducing fire risk. Just a bit more bang for the buck.
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@Siam There's two problems. First is not all human started fires are deliberate. The second is if it's dry enough it's immaterial if there's been fuel reduction burns. Also crown fires don't rely on ground fuel.
What we need to do is better develop management and governance responses.
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@nzzp said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
@No-Quarter said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
Are the recent fires a direct result of human induced climate change?
There's not much you can directly attribute to climate change. The best analogy I've seen is - say you increase gravity by 2%. Not much right, but you know the slipping/tripping/injuries will all be a bit worse. For each individual event you can say 'well, I should have lifted my foot further, or not dropped that thing, etc', but as a collective it changes the way people injure themselves. Climate change is a bit like that... individual weather events happen, but they just tend to be slightly more extreme, slightly more intense, etc.
Edit: found teh link
That's a great analogy - thanks
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This could go in any of 4 threads, podcasts, bush fires, or nz politics.
This climate change issue is so complicated and we've all experienced the fatigue of trying to work out who's telling the truth in an appropriate context.
Bjorn Lomborg is someone that anybody trying to get their head around this mess, should know - as one source of information. He calculates the cost benefits of strategies to make life better in terms of money invested and return. "How much will it cost to fix the problem and how much good will that do". His credentials and publications are impressive and genuine, IMO.
E.g.. tuberculosis is the biggest infection disease killer in the world. 1.6 million die per year, and most of these people are in the productive age of their lives, ie. not infants or elderly. Lomborg predicts it'd cost 8 billion to fix it yielding a return of $43 for every dollar spent.
Investing in nutrition for 0 to 2 year olds worldwide , $1 yields 45.
He has similar calculations for a whole raft of world issues, including climate change.
At 44 minutes he mentions New Zealand. I feel a small swelling of pride in expectation of some environmental policy flattery when he says "New Zealand has promised to go carbon neutral by 2050".
The swelling quickly subsided
In 2008 we said we'd do it by 2020. We're currently at 123% instead of zero. But we'll have a pop at 2050 then ( because carbon neutral sounds bloody impressive).To our credit, Lomborg states that we asked the NZ institute of economic research to provide cost analysis.
It turns out (average of all the estimates provided) that carbon neutral in 2050 will cost 16% of GDP. I know, sounds alright to a non finance freak like me.
That's twice as much as we spend on health, and in a dollar cost, it's more than the gov spends on EVERYTHING today.So, we pay for carbon neutral, get to 2050 and maintain for 50 years more it'll cost ( based on median GDP over 80 years) 5 trillion US dollars. For 5 million people to pay for ( I don't even know how many millions that is each). With no money left for normal services.
I urge you to watch the next bit when he talks about how much this will cool the planet...
I think it's a valuable insight to carbon neutral signalling and to be very wary of such promises or claims.
Introducing ( to some of you perhaps) Bjorn Lomborg, a reasoned and practical component of the climate debate.
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@Siam said in Climate Change #3 & Other Environmental Issues:
( based on median GDP over 80 years) 5 trillion US dollars. For 5 million people to pay for ( I don't even know how many millions that is each)
Maybe US1 million each. (if 5 trillion is 5 million million)
To reduce the temperature even based on the most scary calculation by the climate alarmists. It would be so small (less then 0.01 degrees) And there are nil restrictions on China (easily the biggest CO2 producer. NZ in comparison is tiny) and India.
But lets destroy the NZ economy (esp farming). And send billions overseas to a fund where the money isn't accounted for. And use climate change to justify more tax etc.
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@Nevorian said in How's the weather?:
@Victor-Meldrew said in How's the weather?:
about -1.3 in Cornwall and strong winds from the East. About -5.2 Wind chill.
No snow or ice as the air is really dry.
Does the Gulf Stream ocean current make it a bit milder there or is that more Southern Ireland. Couldn’t believe it when I saw palm trees in Ireland, wtf the tropics in Ireland of all places
Palms in west Scotland too. The Gulf stream was my first thought as well when I heard about the UK weather. At risk of upsetting climate change deniers but the GS stopping was in the modeling and the UK getting significantly colder as a result. Not saying that is happening (could be a one off event) but QI nonetheless.
Parts of the Thames have frozen for the first time in 60 years .
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@Snowy Yup global climate change is melting the ice caps, and the cold dense water is stopping the gulf stream going as far north as it used to. So the UK will get significantly colder from glabl climate change. In addition Scotland is rising and England sinking, in the last ice age the weight of the ice oop north tilted Britain - wnough that you could walk from the continent. That has gone so the island is slowly righting itself, combined with increasing sea levels we'll see a lot of what was once marsh become so again - the SE
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@Snowy said in How's the weather?:
@Nevorian said in How's the weather?:
@Victor-Meldrew said in How's the weather?:
about -1.3 in Cornwall and strong winds from the East. About -5.2 Wind chill.
No snow or ice as the air is really dry.
Does the Gulf Stream ocean current make it a bit milder there or is that more Southern Ireland. Couldn’t believe it when I saw palm trees in Ireland, wtf the tropics in Ireland of all places
Palms in west Scotland too. The Gulf stream was my first thought as well when I heard about the UK weather. At risk of upsetting climate change deniers but the GS stopping was in the modeling and the UK getting significantly colder as a result. Not saying that is happening (could be a one off event) but QI nonetheless.
Parts of the Thames have frozen for the first time in 60 years .
The Thames is significantly less polluted now than over the last 100 years which would have an impact. Water freezes at a higher temperature than most pollutants. This is based on my knowledge of drinking Youngs and Fullers beer. The taste of which has declined with the increasing purity of the water. Fuck you Greta Thunberg.
Climate Change