Coronavirus - Overall
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@booboo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Dr Campbell explains some good news coming from Imperial College.
Basically the preventions are working. It is likely actual cases are grossly under-reported. Italy is likely to have had well over a million infections, maybe in the millions. They currently show a death rate around 13% but this is likely 1% or lower given the number of actual infected.
Probably why countries like Australia, NZ have such low death numbers is the virus did not actually take hold and spread before measures were put in place. So our number of cases reported are much closer to actual cases. Whereas Europe, the US are probably 10x higher or more.
Highly likely then in the short term our health systems are unlikely to become overburdened. The issue now is how do they open up the economy whilst controlling any left over cases.
1% of 1 million is still shit loads
10,000. Compared with an average of 22000 flu or flu type illness related deaths per year on average for the last 3 years in Italy
Yeah. But since when have common flu cases overwhelmed the health system,?
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@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@No-Quarter That’s exponentiality demonstrated right there. If a single virus was placed in a glass jar at 3pm and that virus doubled every second and the jar was full at 4pm, at what time was it half full? 1 second to 4pm.
Those figures are not surprising.
Technically, from these details the jar may have never been half full. But that's probably too much mathematics for everyone.
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@booboo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@booboo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Dr Campbell explains some good news coming from Imperial College.
Basically the preventions are working. It is likely actual cases are grossly under-reported. Italy is likely to have had well over a million infections, maybe in the millions. They currently show a death rate around 13% but this is likely 1% or lower given the number of actual infected.
Probably why countries like Australia, NZ have such low death numbers is the virus did not actually take hold and spread before measures were put in place. So our number of cases reported are much closer to actual cases. Whereas Europe, the US are probably 10x higher or more.
Highly likely then in the short term our health systems are unlikely to become overburdened. The issue now is how do they open up the economy whilst controlling any left over cases.
1% of 1 million is still shit loads
10,000. Compared with an average of 22000 flu or flu type illness related deaths per year on average for the last 3 years in Italy
Yeah. But since when have common flu cases overwhelmed the health system,?
Oh yeah I'm not disagreeing. I was just comparing bare numbers. But that is the annual figure for the flu, covid19 has struck at a much higher rate
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@booboo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@booboo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Dr Campbell explains some good news coming from Imperial College.
Basically the preventions are working. It is likely actual cases are grossly under-reported. Italy is likely to have had well over a million infections, maybe in the millions. They currently show a death rate around 13% but this is likely 1% or lower given the number of actual infected.
Probably why countries like Australia, NZ have such low death numbers is the virus did not actually take hold and spread before measures were put in place. So our number of cases reported are much closer to actual cases. Whereas Europe, the US are probably 10x higher or more.
Highly likely then in the short term our health systems are unlikely to become overburdened. The issue now is how do they open up the economy whilst controlling any left over cases.
1% of 1 million is still shit loads
10,000. Compared with an average of 22000 flu or flu type illness related deaths per year on average for the last 3 years in Italy
Yeah. But since when have common flu cases overwhelmed the health system,?
Two days ago UK heath boffin stated that flu sometimes causes a temporary overload of capacity.
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@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@No-Quarter That’s exponentiality demonstrated right there. If a single virus was placed in a glass jar at 3pm and that virus doubled every second and the jar was full at 4pm, at what time was it half full? 1 second to 4pm.
Those figures are not surprising.
When was it FIRST full?
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It will be interesting to see how Sweden goes. Even though they are not in lockdown, it would seem that the Swedes' famous knack of doing what they are told will give them a chance to pull it off
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@No-Quarter That’s exponentiality demonstrated right there. If a single virus was placed in a glass jar at 3pm and that virus doubled every second and the jar was full at 4pm, at what time was it half full? 1 second to 4pm.
Those figures are not surprising.
When was it FIRST full?
From the details provided I’d say 4pm. But the beauty of mathematics is the ability to theorise differently until absolute proof is achieved. Speaking as a non mathematician I will leave it for others to extrapolate from incomplete dat
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@booboo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Yeah. But since when have common flu cases overwhelmed the health system,?
I think we monitor the strains of the Flu virus and vaccinate people at risk.
Everyone over 60 (I think) gets offered a Flu jab every year in the UK
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@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@No-Quarter That’s exponentiality demonstrated right there. If a single virus was placed in a glass jar at 3pm and that virus doubled every second and the jar was full at 4pm, at what time was it half full? 1 second to 4pm.
Those figures are not surprising.
When was it FIRST full?
From the details provided I’d say 4pm. But the beauty of mathematics is the ability to theorise differently until absolute proof is achieved. Speaking as a non mathematician I will leave it for others to extrapolate from incomplete dat
Tru da
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@booboo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@booboo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@chimoaus said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Dr Campbell explains some good news coming from Imperial College.
Basically the preventions are working. It is likely actual cases are grossly under-reported. Italy is likely to have had well over a million infections, maybe in the millions. They currently show a death rate around 13% but this is likely 1% or lower given the number of actual infected.
Probably why countries like Australia, NZ have such low death numbers is the virus did not actually take hold and spread before measures were put in place. So our number of cases reported are much closer to actual cases. Whereas Europe, the US are probably 10x higher or more.
Highly likely then in the short term our health systems are unlikely to become overburdened. The issue now is how do they open up the economy whilst controlling any left over cases.
1% of 1 million is still shit loads
10,000. Compared with an average of 22000 flu or flu type illness related deaths per year on average for the last 3 years in Italy
Yeah. But since when have common flu cases overwhelmed the health system,?
Two days ago UK heath boffin stated that flu sometimes causes a temporary overload of capacity.
If that's the case then it's little wonder they're stressing about a new very contagious virus hitting the market.
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@Victor-Meldrew same in NZ I believe.
My neighbour said he has his flu jab booked for the 14th...on arrival, calls the Dr and gives them his car rego, they will then come out to him, supposedly in full PPE to give him his jab.
I haven't had the flu jab since I was in the UK, also haven't had the flu since I had the jab either...but if they have a CV jab, I think I'll take that one.
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@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Godder said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@No-Quarter That’s exponentiality demonstrated right there. If a single virus was placed in a glass jar at 3pm and that virus doubled every second and the jar was full at 4pm, at what time was it half full? 1 second to 4pm.
Those figures are not surprising.
You and your "mathematics"...
It's gaining traction, soon people won't look at it as a pseudo-science. We're going mainstream brother. Come with us!
Sounds like my kind of cult - does it allow amateurs?
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Looks like squabbling over the groceries isn't confined to the supermarket
https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-cries-foul-over-berlin-bound-masks-diverted-to-u-s-11585943440
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Best interview I've seen
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Conference call with Trump today. Some heavyweights. Amusing to see Vincent Kennedy amongst them!
They haven’t released yet what was discussed, but presumably it’s about re-starting their seasons or trying to get a sense of when they can get back to business.
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so 1 in 4 of the total infected are in the US, thier numbers are getting pretty scary, I think I heard on Friday they were about 10 days away form peaking in NY?
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Overall:
so 1 in 4 of the total infected are in the US, thier numbers are getting pretty scary, I think I heard on Friday they were about 10 days away form peaking in NY?
I trust their numbers, can't say the same for many other countries.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Overall:
so 1 in 4 of the total infected are in the US, thier numbers are getting pretty scary, I think I heard on Friday they were about 10 days away form peaking in NY?
I trust their numbers, can't say the same for many other countries.
I don;t trust their numbers at all, they're not testing enough. But, yes, I don't think they're downplaying them - they just have no idea