Coronavirus - New Zealand
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@JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
My hunch is 28 days short sharp pain will do less damage to the economy than a drawn out half arsed approach.
28 days which includes school holidays, plus 2 stat holidays. 18 working/trading days for many.
Let a hairdresser or dentist stay open but with desultory turnover but still all the costs? Or shut stuff down , reduce all costs, subsidise wages, defer mortgages. Shift the pain to the commercial landlords who shift it to the banks.
Wont work for all, for some time is money. Can't save everyone, let the 'creative destruction' begin as the textbooks say.
Can’t agree. “Creative destruction” is pretty offensive really. The majority of businesses that go to the wall represent the sweat, dreams and livelihoods of individuals and families all over the country. They will not recover. Many will have guaranteed their debts with their personal assets and they will lose their homes, in many cases their families, and in some cases their lives. They will not be able to borrow any more money to start again. They will fail to pay their debts, often to other small businesses, leading to more of the same. Recession, too, is a virus. What most small and medium sized businesses want is to be in control of their own destiny, not have failure forced on them by someone who has no idea of what is needed to keep a business afloat in good times and bad, or empathy with the sense of helplessness when you see the hurt felt by your family, your employees and their families, and the community who depends on you to deliver your services and pay your debts. And it doesn’t matter how smart you are or how honourable your intentions are, you can’t do anything about it. Because you have been ordered not to.
BTW, shifting the pain to the banks? Like that actually ever happens... The banks will do fine. And if they don’t, the squeeze will go onto their customers, and there’s nothing the government can do to stop them.
I think the distinction needs to be drawn between long established businesses, which would be viable 99% of the time, but without government assistence may fail and may be imossible to rebuild, and less established/sunset businesses whose vaibility was questionable anyway. Capitalism works in part by the weak perishing and the strong surviving, albeit plenty of luck involved along the line. So some constructive destruction is positive. A huge issue with the lockdown is the danger of the baby being thrown out with the dishwater.
Two things in the post CV world:
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Availabilty of finance for cash flow marginal/negative 'lifestyle projects' isn't likely to recover for some time. So less interesting consumer choices and [self-]employment opportunities going forward; and
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Lack of immigration and muted credit growth is likely to mean property/housing values will stagnate. Those who got used to spending more than they earned, relying on their home as an ATM, are going to find it a tough new world. There is a second order effect, because that is also likely to mean less new build, and a massive reduction in home improvements, so the downstream employment will remain impacted for at least a year or two.
That said, some might observe that CV didn't create such weaknesses, it merely exposed them.
No easy answers, for Cindy or anyone.
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@Chris-B
Re: discussion in media about M Bovis and lessons for Covid19, look at a recent Keith Woodford articles at interest.co.nz.Edit. Actually maybe not, just had a look but couldn't find one. Was sure I read one there a week or so ago.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
If I was enrolled in the Hooroo school of not giving a shit about strangers. I would be pleased with how NZ and Australia are going respectively. If NZ crashes badly and Australia does not? I will make shit tons of cash... if my business survives the next few months.
Why would I be pleased? I don’t get that.
I just wonder, given what is going on world wide that if we did much different would we have much of a different outcome? I doubt it.
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- Another death today, another Rosewood Home resident, so 5 deaths in total, 3 from Rosewood Home
- Additional 19 cases, 15 confirmed and 4 probable, taking total cases to 1349
- 75 recovered, taking total active cases down to 798
Should hear what level 3 will look like later this week, including (obviously) any changes from current.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12324415
Agree with this, Aussie is our biggest tourism market, so while it's not going to save the tourism industry from a massive drop, it would salvage something, and likewise for aviation job losses.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Godder would personally make me very happy too!!!
How would that happen? The govt has put us (at great cost) on the road to total elimination of the virus, unless Aus can do the same then we cannot let them i without 14 day quarantine. We have been told repeatedly the dangers of exponential growth, now the govt is going to pay a price for the line of scare mongering.
By taking this path when nobody else has, then we have no option but to remain isolated as the rest of the world forms its own networks. -
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Godder would personally make me very happy too!!!
How would that happen? The govt has put us (at great cost) on the road to total elimination of the virus, unless Aus can do the same then we cannot let them i without 14 day quarantine. We have been told repeatedly the dangers of exponential growth, now the govt is going to pay a price for the line of scare mongering.
By taking this path when nobody else has, then we have no option but to remain isolated as the rest of the world forms its own networks.I am curious as to your thoughts on how the New Zealand economy is going to be different given everything that is happening in the world despite our lockdown. Do you think the New Zealand economy would be significantly different had we done it under your thought process?
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@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Godder would personally make me very happy too!!!
How would that happen? The govt has put us (at great cost) on the road to total elimination of the virus, unless Aus can do the same then we cannot let them i without 14 day quarantine. We have been told repeatedly the dangers of exponential growth, now the govt is going to pay a price for the line of scare mongering.
By taking this path when nobody else has, then we have no option but to remain isolated as the rest of the world forms its own networks.I am curious as to your thoughts on how the New Zealand economy is going to be different given everything that is happening in the world despite our lockdown. Do you think the New Zealand economy would be significantly different had we done it under your thought process?
Yes.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Godder would personally make me very happy too!!!
How would that happen? The govt has put us (at great cost) on the road to total elimination of the virus, unless Aus can do the same then we cannot let them i without 14 day quarantine. We have been told repeatedly the dangers of exponential growth, now the govt is going to pay a price for the line of scare mongering.
By taking this path when nobody else has, then we have no option but to remain isolated as the rest of the world forms its own networks.I am curious as to your thoughts on how the New Zealand economy is going to be different given everything that is happening in the world despite our lockdown. Do you think the New Zealand economy would be significantly different had we done it under your thought process?
Yes.
Significantly? I don’t. Somewhat? Yes.
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@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Godder would personally make me very happy too!!!
How would that happen? The govt has put us (at great cost) on the road to total elimination of the virus, unless Aus can do the same then we cannot let them i without 14 day quarantine. We have been told repeatedly the dangers of exponential growth, now the govt is going to pay a price for the line of scare mongering.
By taking this path when nobody else has, then we have no option but to remain isolated as the rest of the world forms its own networks.I am curious as to your thoughts on how the New Zealand economy is going to be different given everything that is happening in the world despite our lockdown. Do you think the New Zealand economy would be significantly different had we done it under your thought process?
Yes.
Significantly? I don’t. Somewhat? Yes.
Cool you don't think having all businesses open and tourist ventures helped would significantly change the economy. Ok
Logic would dictate that you also don't believe that closing all non essential businesses has had a significant impact. Each to their own I guess.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Godder would personally make me very happy too!!!
How would that happen? The govt has put us (at great cost) on the road to total elimination of the virus, unless Aus can do the same then we cannot let them i without 14 day quarantine. We have been told repeatedly the dangers of exponential growth, now the govt is going to pay a price for the line of scare mongering.
By taking this path when nobody else has, then we have no option but to remain isolated as the rest of the world forms its own networks.I am curious as to your thoughts on how the New Zealand economy is going to be different given everything that is happening in the world despite our lockdown. Do you think the New Zealand economy would be significantly different had we done it under your thought process?
Yes.
Significantly? I don’t. Somewhat? Yes.
Cool you don't think having all businesses open and tourist ventures helped would significantly change the economy. Ok
Logic would dictate that you also don't believe that closing all non essential businesses has had a significant impact. Each to their own I guess.
Yes I thi k having all businesses open would have had a catastrophic effect on human life. I also think no matter what we did in NZ, the affect of the global economy would have been very bad for NZ
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@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Godder would personally make me very happy too!!!
How would that happen? The govt has put us (at great cost) on the road to total elimination of the virus, unless Aus can do the same then we cannot let them i without 14 day quarantine. We have been told repeatedly the dangers of exponential growth, now the govt is going to pay a price for the line of scare mongering.
By taking this path when nobody else has, then we have no option but to remain isolated as the rest of the world forms its own networks.I am curious as to your thoughts on how the New Zealand economy is going to be different given everything that is happening in the world despite our lockdown. Do you think the New Zealand economy would be significantly different had we done it under your thought process?
Yes.
Significantly? I don’t. Somewhat? Yes.
Cool you don't think having all businesses open and tourist ventures helped would significantly change the economy. Ok
Logic would dictate that you also don't believe that closing all non essential businesses has had a significant impact. Each to their own I guess.
Yes I thi k having all businesses open would have had a catastrophic effect on human life. I also think no matter what we did in NZ, the affect of the global economy would have been very bad for NZ
Definite catastrophic in this context. You talking Spain? Australia? I think social distancing has proven effective in keeping it from being catastrophe anywhere once it is implemented. Do you disagree with that?
Of course it would have been bad, but it is possible to make a bad situation worse. And we are trying hard to do that. -
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Godder would personally make me very happy too!!!
How would that happen? The govt has put us (at great cost) on the road to total elimination of the virus, unless Aus can do the same then we cannot let them i without 14 day quarantine. We have been told repeatedly the dangers of exponential growth, now the govt is going to pay a price for the line of scare mongering.
By taking this path when nobody else has, then we have no option but to remain isolated as the rest of the world forms its own networks.Of course Australia has to get to a level NZ is comfortable with, that's hardly rocket science . I'm not saying they're there, just that it would be bloody great for the economy and for me personally if they managed it.
Obviously it requires comfort around both borders, local testing and reporting, and ideally, development in testing regimes at the borders.
14 day mandatory quarantining certainly isn't opening borders any time soon.
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We got a note from our school saying the government has shared a tineline that aims to get kids back by 29th April, so they're obviously feeling pretty positive about the recent numbers. Obviously not confirmed but will be interesting to see what they say this week.
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My kids are out of school until the 22nd of May
Fuck my life
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@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Can only see the borders opening if they have a vaccine or a quick turn around test, even as much as a day (preferably less).
It'll be interesting to see if the 15 minute Covid-19 tests that were in the media a week or so back amount to anything reliable/cheap/mass producible.
Depending on which way all of this goes, they could be a temporary measure that forms past of Passport Control to get things up and running.
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
My kids are out of school until the 22nd of May
Fuck my life
Aussie have gone from being halfway to hardcore. At least where school is concerned
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@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Can only see the borders opening if they have a vaccine or a quick turn around test, even as much as a day (preferably less).
It'll be interesting to see if the 15 minute Covid-19 tests that were in the media a week or so back amount to anything reliable/cheap/mass producible.
Depending on which way all of this goes, they could be a temporary measure that forms past of Passport Control to get things up and running.
The should look at how Taiwan is doing it. They have been the most successful at stopping the virus from coming in from abroad
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Godder would personally make me very happy too!!!
How would that happen? The govt has put us (at great cost) on the road to total elimination of the virus, unless Aus can do the same then we cannot let them i without 14 day quarantine. We have been told repeatedly the dangers of exponential growth, now the govt is going to pay a price for the line of scare mongering.
By taking this path when nobody else has, then we have no option but to remain isolated as the rest of the world forms its own networks.I am curious as to your thoughts on how the New Zealand economy is going to be different given everything that is happening in the world despite our lockdown. Do you think the New Zealand economy would be significantly different had we done it under your thought process?
Yes.
Significantly? I don’t. Somewhat? Yes.
Cool you don't think having all businesses open and tourist ventures helped would significantly change the economy. Ok
Tourism was dead in the water even if we did nothing - nobody is coming here for a holiday while Coronavirus is rampant, because everywhere else is doing distancing and lockdowns and quarantines. Who would come here for a holiday when they have to pay 2-3 times as much for a seat to have distance on the plane because it's required by their home country anyway, and then sit in quarantine for 2 weeks on arrival back home? Flights and airlines have stopped operating. Airlines are insolvent and collapsing all around the world.
Overseas trips are among the first luxuries to be cut by people who have lost jobs or have uncertainty about their future prospects and there's a whole lot of that now.
Domestic tourism is not happening in any sort of volume either, even without a lockdown - too much fear and uncertainty.
12% of the economy, 13% of our jobs, mostly gone overnight (we'll keep some for domestic tourism). Required isolation and border controls sped it up a bit, but even without those, it was going to be a quick end.
Related but separate from tourism, domestic business travel (and associated accommodation/restaurants) is taking a huge dive - people discovered online meetings long before we reached level 4 (my employer worked that out before levels were instituted). It could be years before that level of travel is back, if ever. Likewise, if working from home becomes a lot more prevalent, how much does leasing of commercial office space reduce over time?
This is all relatively direct spending. What about indirect spending? Conservatively, we have already wiped 10% off GDP and increased unemployment to 10% (from 4%), and probably increased underutilisation to 15% (from 10%). GDP is simply a measure of spending in the economy, and if $31 billion didn't get earned or spent, that's a lot of money not available to buy a coffee with, to go out for dinner, to buy clothing, get a haircut (people still get haircuts, but fewer in a year). It's not going to be essential spending that gets cut, it's the discretionary spending.
If we just opted for social distancing and quarantining/isolation for border arrivals instead of lockdown, how many small businesses go to the wall in a year anyway because their income is down 20-30% and falling with no way to make it viable because their bank and landlord won't assist them? How many business owners increase their hours to 70-80 per week in an unsustainable and ultimately futile attempt to make it work? How many broken marriages, mental breakdowns, suicides do we get in that pathway? Is it more or less than the current pathway? Do we get worse or better outcomes from going tough now and soft later, or from going softer now but tougher for longer?
The premise of the current plan is that the total pain will be less if we get it done quickly than if we drag it out, especially because government can provide a lot more support in a short space of time than over a longer time frame.
We should see the next part of the government's financial support package this week - our current support is a good start, but hopefully this week provides a lot more support for small businesses especially as they need it.
Side note - a lot of owners of small businesses are in personal financial trouble because of personal guarantees. One of the reasons for companies as a legal entity was limited liability, but personal guarantees have made that a lot less of a reality. I would like to see personal guarantees banned to make limited liability companies actually limited liability, or if that isn't done, at least make them void if the failure was due to the pandemic (similar to the safe harbour announced for trading while insolvent if the insolvency is principally due to the pandemic). If someone added mortgages on residential property to fund business, I wouldn't be upset about that either...