Covid Economics
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@antipodean said in Covid Economics:
Speaking of track records in forecasting...
Data released by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission shows retail trading increased as a proportion of the overall market between February 2020 and April 3, compared to the six months prior.
Significantly, ASIC noted during the period there was a sharp increase in the daily number of unique client identifiers - associated with new retail accounts.
An average of 4,675 new identifiers appeared per day in the focus period, compared to 1,369 new identifiers per day in the previous period. In total, this brought in 140,241 identifiers the regulator had previously not seen in its trade surveillance data.
Retail brokers were net buyers of securities over the focus period, buying $53.4 billion and selling $48.4 billion.
Leveraged contract for difference (CFD) products also increased. In the week March 16 until March 22, retail client losses were just over $428 million gross or $234 million net, the regulator has estimated based on data from 12 CFD providers.
"Retail investors chasing quick profits by playing the market over the short term have traditionally performed poorly – in good times and bad - even in relatively stable, less volatile market conditions," the regulator said.
The average time between trades by the same investor has decreased from 2.5 days to less than one day. ASIC
"The analysis suggested few pursuing quick windfalls were successful. During the focus period, on more than two thirds of the days on which retail investors were net buyers, their share prices declined the following day.
"On days where retail investors were net sellers, their share prices more likely increased the next day."
From a mate at IRESS, sent to me on 17 March:
"Fun fact: so far in 2020 we have processed a total of 43% of the entire 2019 stock market volume of trades in the UK and 38% in Australia.
The bulk of that is in the last 2 weeks ."
Pretty wild!
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@voodoo said in Covid Economics:
@antipodean said in Covid Economics:
Speaking of track records in forecasting...
Data released by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission shows retail trading increased as a proportion of the overall market between February 2020 and April 3, compared to the six months prior.
Significantly, ASIC noted during the period there was a sharp increase in the daily number of unique client identifiers - associated with new retail accounts.
An average of 4,675 new identifiers appeared per day in the focus period, compared to 1,369 new identifiers per day in the previous period. In total, this brought in 140,241 identifiers the regulator had previously not seen in its trade surveillance data.
Retail brokers were net buyers of securities over the focus period, buying $53.4 billion and selling $48.4 billion.
Leveraged contract for difference (CFD) products also increased. In the week March 16 until March 22, retail client losses were just over $428 million gross or $234 million net, the regulator has estimated based on data from 12 CFD providers.
"Retail investors chasing quick profits by playing the market over the short term have traditionally performed poorly – in good times and bad - even in relatively stable, less volatile market conditions," the regulator said.
The average time between trades by the same investor has decreased from 2.5 days to less than one day. ASIC
"The analysis suggested few pursuing quick windfalls were successful. During the focus period, on more than two thirds of the days on which retail investors were net buyers, their share prices declined the following day.
"On days where retail investors were net sellers, their share prices more likely increased the next day."
From a mate at IRESS, sent to me on 17 March:
"Fun fact: so far in 2020 we have processed a total of 43% of the entire 2019 stock market volume of trades in the UK and 38% in Australia.
The bulk of that is in the last 2 weeks ."
Pretty wild!
Normal to have high volumes of trades in times of extreme volatility if you think about it. Difficult to have high vol without high numbers of trades!
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@Catogrande yes, there would appear to be some logic in your statement...
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@voodoo said in Covid Economics:
@Catogrande yes, there would appear to be some logic in your statement...
Like a stopped clock...
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https://www.top.org.nz/universal_basic_income
A lot of chatter around universal basic income, so that's one version of it, costed for NZ.