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@taniwharugby said in NZ Politics:
@Crucial tongue in cheek comment...Tiwai is a high profile thing, but very little in way of media surrounding the Refinery and its future.
Not sure I am sold on the Ports of Auckland thing moving up here yet, but def think the Navy would be a big boost.
Trouble with the Navy thing is that I think your council has allowed developers to already take up any suitable spots. No way are the residents going to allow a base being built next to them. Any other places would require dredging (and the maintenance that goes with that). I think Whangarei may end up in the too hard basket when/if NZN go looking for a new base.
They are sitting on some immensely valuable land in Devonport at the moment so it will be a numbers game. No use selling and moving to be in an equal/worse position. -
In case anyone out there was unaware
Latest Reid Research poll has Nats at 25% Labour at 61%
Poll was conducted after Collins took over as National's leader.
Also Jami-Lee Ross channels Monty Python and jumps into bed with Monster Raving Looney Party aka Public party who I assume would have @Winger 's vote sewn up
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@dogmeat said in NZ Politics:
In case anyone out there was unaware
Latest Reid Research poll has Nats at 25% Labour at 61%
Poll was conducted after Collins took over as National's leader.
Also Jami-Lee Ross channels Monty Python and jumps into bed with Monster Raving Looney Party aka Public party who I assume would have @Winger 's vote sewn up
I wonder what the Greens think of those types of figures. They must aso be a bit twitchy on how they can have influence?
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@taniwharugby said in NZ Politics:
@Crucial is plenty of land there, but in my view it is an either or, I dont think we can do both.
It's not the land its the harbour and depth. You need to have big ships able to berth.
edit: sorry, should explain that I am thinking that the option would likely be closer to the heads than in town.
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@dogmeat said in NZ Politics:
In case anyone out there was unaware
Latest Reid Research poll has Nats at 25% Labour at 61%
Poll was conducted after Collins took over as National's leader.
The poll may well be accurate, but I don't see how it reflects reality.
2002 is looming large at the moment but that was a case where National bleed a shitload of votes to all three of NZF, ACT and UF in addition to underperfoming themselves.
Based on the current polling left of centre parties would hoover up ~70% of the vote. That means just under half of all NZ First and National voters last election have abandoned their parties. Even with St Cindy this just doesn't pass the sniff test.
The estimate for one if not two of National, NZF or ACT (in order of likelihood) will be out by < 5% come the election.
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@rotated I don't think anyone thinks the poll is accurate or that Labour will sustain that level of support. However if I was a National List MP it would definitely be squeaky bum time.
Nats aren't totally dead in the water but they probably need something like much worse than expected economic data and / or community transmission.
Good news for NZF - centre right voters may desert National so that Winnie can be a hand brake. Left wing Labour voters may also feel comfortable switching to the Greens.
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@dogmeat said in NZ Politics:
Good news for NZF - centre right voters may desert National so that Winnie can be a hand brake. Left wing Labour voters may also feel comfortable switching to the Greens.
This is the part that annoys me if it comes to fruition.
I never wake up upset or unhappy if Labour or National are in power. Everything stays pretty much the same but with a bit of minor noise.
If Greens held too much sway or NZF, then I would be disappointed with who's in govt. When I say sway I mean that they have a lot more power than just buddying up come Election time
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@dogmeat said in NZ Politics:
@Hooroo the counter-argument is that 'Everything stays pretty much the same but with a bit of minor noise' because the minor parties prevent Labour / National going down ideological avenues.
It's the argument the likes of @Kirwan use against MMP
The advantage of FPP was that a party like Labour or National could actually move us forward (even if some of the country didn't agree). Under MMP 7% of the country decided that the minority party (Labour) should form the government and then that same 7% proceeded to stop Labour on several of their policies.
In effect we are now stuck with changes around the edges, with no large changes happening. That obviously can be a good thing, but I think its halts progress more.
As for the poll, it's super similar to Labour last time around (They got to 23% from memory, turfed a few leaders, then the cult of personality kicked in and of course MMP). So it's possible, but extremely unlikely that National can form a government.
So with that context, I wonder if it would be a good thing for Labour to have a majority on their own. Social policy would move forward, but obviously they would fuck over the "rich" (read: people earning over $80,000). If Labour scooped up the Greens vote and they disappeared, that would be good. As would National getting NZ First votes and murdering that abomination of a party.
Get FFP back de facto.
I can dream.
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@Hooroo Photo emerged of 18 yr old candidate in Palmie with a fake moustache doing the old heil hitler salute
He was 14 at the time and has admitted he was a dickwad and apologised for the act. Other party leaders are saying to cut him slack while highlighting his age....
@Mokey I wonder how many candidates put their hands up. No one knew Labour would be floundering for a candidate 6 wks out from election day.
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@dogmeat said in NZ Politics:
@Hooroo Photo emerged of 18 yr old candidate in Palmie with a fake moustache doing the old heil hitler salute
He was 14 at the time and has admitted he was a dickwad and apologised for the act. Other party leaders are saying to cut him slack while highlighting his age....
@Mokey I wonder how many candidates put their hands up. No one knew Labour would be floundering for a candidate 6 wks out from election day.
That's a stupid thing to get worked up about. But IMO it's also stupid for an 18 year old to be standing.
I don't know any of my friends at that age that had not made some sort of Nazi joke, or other sort of bad taste joke. That's how you learn where the line is.
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@Mokey said in NZ Politics:
@dogmeat Wasn't just that, he did the white supremacist sign in another photo at 17 (deleted, but the internet is forever.)
Sounds like a dick. And who the fark wants to be an MP at 18? (Jami LR and Chloe Swarbrick would be the youngest I can think of)
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@Mokey said in NZ Politics:
@dogmeat Wasn't just that, he did the white supremacist sign in another photo at 17 (deleted, but the internet is forever.)
Which sign was that, the OK one?
Edit: "Late last year Mr Wood posted then deleted a photo on social media which showed a friend, standing beside him, making a hand gesture adopted by white supremacists. His friend was also wearing a “Make America Great Again” hat."
That's a stretch IMO, wasn't even him and the OK sign means plenty of different things, especially to kiwis.
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@Mokey said in NZ Politics:
@canefan The choice must have been really really dire if they went with an 18yo. Makes you wonder who the other possibilities for PN were.
... and going up against a cabinet minister too, with a reasonable local support. Wouldn't have seemed high risk, but not sure the seat was in play when the local electorate made that call.
Still happier having the locals do it than having centralised control (looking at you, Louisa Wall in Mangere)
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