Coronavirus - New Zealand
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Watching the news paints a grim picture of the possibility of a wider outbreak...
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@Winger said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Now we don't need Winger to stoke paranoia and conspiracy theories.
It was inevitable because logic suggested it was going to happen. Based on a basic understanding of human frailties, looking at overseas experiences and just shit happens.
they have actually said this since we went to Lvl 1. I'm guessing they stepped up the messaging recently as it was obvious people were getting more and more complacent and also in light of Melbourne's debacle.
I posted about talking to a DHB and being told it was only a matter of time but that they were better prepared.
So 4 cases of the yearly flu is used as an excuse to lock the country down again. And you still don't see it.
What will it take.
At this point I believe Trump is the worlds only hope. Or we will live in a world where the people have limited rights and freedoms. Using global warming (as it gets colder) or say a yearly flu to treat us all like silly children. Where the center gives the orders and the children must comply. Or else. And many will applaud the strong Govt action to keep us all safe. As economies collapse.
Weirdest Ferner
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@Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@raznomore and Ashley was so prescient with his "a 2nd wave is unavoidable" call...
Cool. Something to add to the conspiracy theories thread.
It was obvious to all that most of NZ (myself included) had become complacent and, given the likelihood of things reappearing, weren’t prepared enough for action when it did.
At least some listened and tried to prepare with masks etcI do agree that we are going to have to find a way of living with this. One of the biggest issues is that despite an increase we still don’t have the ICU capacity in our hospitals and wouldn’t cope with a widespread problem.
We have brought some time in the last couple of months but haven’t solved the conundrumTongue in cheek mate. Though he certainly wasn't spinning that message earlier...
Do you have any stats on what we have actually achieved during this curve flattening period? I havent seen much, for NZ or for Australia, and its pretty frustrating.
I saw numbers in an article just the other day. Can't remember where now.
It was something like ICU beds per million and comparing countries. When this kicked off we were pretty low compared to many and although the number has increased it is still below other countries that struggled when hit.
The whole 'it only kills old people' argument is so dumb when you understand the crippling of the country that would occur having to deal with the ill that need help and how people that would currently survive because care is available would swamp the health system and then the death rate increases.
It's not just about death either. Some very long lasting damage is done that will be a burden for many years.The only answer I can see is to ride this out the best we can with these shithouse restrictions from time to time until a medical solution is found.
Bold: we're assuming it's going to be long lasting.(Although it's probably s good sssumption. )
Virus has only been in humans for 9 months.
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@booboo and that's the thing, they dont know, so they need to work out the best way for us to live with it, unless they plan on shutting our borders completely not allowing people in, that we know cant happen.
I'm not keen to follow the Sweden path, but we have seen the current path we have taken wont work either (without shutting borders)...sure it might get rid of it so we can return to 'normal' for a few months, but it will be back, so how do we deal with that.
I assume there have been thousands of people that were turned away today, so it is likely Monday or Tuesday before we see the true numbers of infected?
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@taniwharugby I'm ever so slightly tongue in cheek querying how long lasting the health effects will be.
How will we know they will they will be long lasting when the virus has only been about for 9 months.
Having said that some of the apparent impacts on the heart, scarring on lungs etc etc are pretty certain to impact long term.
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@booboo yea they had a lady on TV the other day who said she was very active (think she was late 30s early 40s) prior to getting it, was like a bad dose of the flu but over a month after supposedly being clear she is still struggling with breathlessness, fatigue etc.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@booboo and that's the thing, they dont know, so they need to work out the best way for us to live with it, unless they plan on shutting our borders completely not allowing people in, that we know cant happen.
I'm not keen to follow the Sweden path, but we have seen the current path we have taken wont work either (without shutting borders)...sure it might get rid of it so we can return to 'normal' for a few months, but it will be back, so how do we deal with that.
I assume there have been thousands of people that were turned away today, so it is likely Monday or Tuesday before we see the true numbers of infected?
The thing is we don't know how it got in and how long it has been in for. It is possible that we could change procedures to make sure it doesn't get in again. It's also possible it isn't very widespread and we will be back to that normal in a few weeks.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan Why is the opinion of those two important?
Thought that the contact tracing issue was a big one, and the government need to find a way to be able to isolate and track effectively
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@pakman No the converse is not true. It would be over a shorter time frame but all expert opinion agrees there was no community transmission in NZ because if there was, the way the virus progresses, it would have had to have been detected..
Which is a good lesson about experts. The asymptomatic transmission of CV makes measurement of its extent a calculated guess. And as @Godder helpfully posted, a very few cases can escalate extremely rapidly.
Post mortems done In 2020 on a few patients, which died of a mystery condition in France in December 2019, are reported as testing positive for CV. It appears it was already lurking there.
It is entirely possible for it to be circulating in the community at very low levels without being detected.
Which is why the objective of elimination is hugely harder than on the surface it might appear.
Meanwhile in UK fewer people dying in summer of CV than flu.
For me jury is very much out on merits on NZ approach.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Post mortems done In 2020 on a few patients, which died of a mystery condition in France in December 2019, are reported as testing positive for CV. It appears it was already lurking there.
I'm not sure, but I think there may have been questions over the qPCR curves from those tests. Looked like the curve grew late in the cycles, which may indicate a false positive. Would need to check.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I'm not keen to follow the Sweden path,
Why not?
Or Swedish plus protect the vulnerable (as Sweden didn't do).
This virus seems no worse than many year flu's so its the normal logical path.
But protect the vulnerable and stop people going out of they are sick (that wasn't done in the past) and maybe temperature readings and masks for those who want extra protection.We are following a path for a deadly black plague type illness and its really not needed
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@No-Quarter said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Why wouldn't you be complacent when the government slaps itself on the back for eliminating the virus?
They also can't seriously expect people to lock themselves at home every time they get mild symptoms of a cold. There would be noone at work at all over winter if that was the case.
As I said earlier, it was inevitable the virus would come back, especially if it is as contagious as they claim. We can't stop the country every time it spreads. It's here to stay at a global level so we just need to learn how to live with it like we do all other versions of the Flu (some of which are extremely nasty).
It just seems like nothing has changed since the last lockdown. No plans on how to deal with the next inevitable outbreak other than "let's rocket from level 1 to level 3 again!". That's not a solution. There's no end game other than some vague hope of a vaccine that is unlikely to be ready short-term if at all.
But Russia has a vaccine...
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I am 100% for a sweedish approach mark II as stated above. spend a billion protecting hyper vulnerable ie rest homes/workers etc encourage basic sanitary procedures and bobs your uncle.