Coronavirus - New Zealand
-
@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@muddyriver Define vulnerable. Given there are still cases where young people without co-morbidities die. What mortality rate is acceptable?
I suspect playing God with decisions like these is a lot more difficult for politicians than making them from the comfort of a keyboard (not having a go at you BTW).
Evidence to date is that any solution that relies on everyone doing the right thing for the common good is doomed to fail.
Out walking last night almost everyone had slipped straight back into social distancing but with more masks worn but to counter that you have the selfish pricks who fled Auckland ahead of the lockdown because of; ya know the inconvenience of it all.
I hear this.
When you are deciding an acceptable mortality rate, please include a close family member(Wife/Husband or kid) as a death as one of these and still see if that mortality rate is acceptable.
IMO vulnerability is related to a greater likelihood of serious complications or death than what you would expect in the general population AND the presence of any other factors that stop such a person being able to mitigate the risks themselves. So people in rest homes, residential rehab facilities and people whose job exposes them to unreasonable likelihood of exposure.
An acceptable mortality rate is whatever we could expect to see in any periodic or seasonal viral outbreak. It's not zero. The comparatively acceptable death is me. Will that do?
-
@Virgil said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
here we go...
I feel like they are drawing a really really long bow with this theory the virus came into the country via imported products. When the obvious answer is the weeks of fuck ups at isolation and quarantine facilities. The numbers of people let out without getting tested, those that broke out or broke in. Reports of security guards falling asleep on the job, and more worryingly ‘mingling’ with those in isolation. People in isolation allowed to mingle with each other etc.. that’s where it fucken came from and it could have been from a few weeks ago.
Did NZ outsource its quarantine to Victorians?
-
@Virgil said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Those guys that managed the Ammonium Nitrate hoard in Beirut seemed more competent then those running our boarders and quarantine facilities these past few weeks.
At least they cleaned up their own cluster....
-
@JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@muddyriver Define vulnerable. Given there are still cases where young people without co-morbidities die. What mortality rate is acceptable?
I suspect playing God with decisions like these is a lot more difficult for politicians than making them from the comfort of a keyboard (not having a go at you BTW).
Evidence to date is that any solution that relies on everyone doing the right thing for the common good is doomed to fail.
Out walking last night almost everyone had slipped straight back into social distancing but with more masks worn but to counter that you have the selfish pricks who fled Auckland ahead of the lockdown because of; ya know the inconvenience of it all.
I hear this.
When you are deciding an acceptable mortality rate, please include a close family member(Wife/Husband or kid) as a death as one of these and still see if that mortality rate is acceptable.
IMO vulnerability is related to a greater likelihood of serious complications or death than what you would expect in the general population AND the presence of any other factors that stop such a person being able to mitigate the risks themselves. So people in rest homes, residential rehab facilities and people whose job exposes them to unreasonable likelihood of exposure.
An acceptable mortality rate is whatever we could expect to see in any periodic or seasonal viral outbreak. It's not zero. The comparatively acceptable death is me. Will that do?
I'm squarely in at risk group, so have a vested interest in eliminating the virus.
Part of the caring about the community part of this argument brought up above works the other way too. I want a good future for the country and the next generation. I don't want to burn down the country just protect myself.
We have to have a plan in place that reduces the spread as much as possible but not at the cost of the standard of living of the entire country for decades to come.
I'd enforce the use of masks, have a real quarantine for people coming into the country (controlled by the army, with barbed wire, the works), actually test people not just symptomatic people, and get PPE to at risk people and not pretend they have it already.
To be honest, I'm really struggling with how this has been handled.
-
@Mokey said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
We've used up all our luck with the previous screw ups. No way they will contain it if they aren't smart about testing, tracing, and people STAYING THE FUCK HOME if they are unwell.
You need some NSW luck. I have no idea how we haven’t had a bigger outbreak here.
-
@Nepia said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Mokey said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
We've used up all our luck with the previous screw ups. No way they will contain it if they aren't smart about testing, tracing, and people STAYING THE FUCK HOME if they are unwell.
You need some NSW luck. I have no idea how we haven’t had a bigger outbreak here.
A massive healthcare bureaucracy, widespread testing (20k-30k each day) with aggressive contact tracing and quick action when new cases are found.
And a big fat dose of luck.
-
@JK said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Just shot to local liquor store and picked up 6 doz hazy IPAs and couple of doz wine.
Interestingly all the lines at the supermarket next door to it seem to have subsided
I was out yesterday morning and it was crazy on the roads and motorways in Auckland. When I left work a couple hours after the deadline it was quiet and I was able to walk straight into the local NW. Very strange
-
@Kirwan not that it's any kind of solace but I can't see any flavour of govt or bureaucracy handling this significantly better. In that many of the current mistakes would have popped up under other leadership etc. Or are connected to longer term problems with supplies, plans and the like (edited that to be clearer).
I 100% agree with your ideas for quarantine and widespread testing. Even with the benefit of hindsight it seems crazy we didn't go harder on that aspect of things.
It is more than unfortunate that genuine oversights/gaps in our methodology can have such huge and punishing outcomes. A mate at work pointed out that our "X days Covid free" should have been "X days since Covid detected" - but I guess no matter the messaging everyone gets fatigue and starts relaxing.
-
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan soft squishy robots made out of cardboard as it lasts quite a while on hard surfaces.
But hey they're just old fucks right? Contribute nothing to society. No one will miss them...
As long as the economy is sweet what's a few hundred or thousand deaths between friends?
Who's saying that though @canefan? Every response should be evidence-based. Doing nothing is a valid option, and comes with costs and benefits, as does a comprehensive lockdown at the other end of the spectrum. The arithmetic of relative harm should be dispassionate and complete, taking into account the long-run impacts as well as the short-run. It's not heresy to suggest that there are some scenarios where the benefits of protecting people like me are outweighed by the costs that others will have to bear,
That's not suggesting that I want to die or that the government should have me killed. A decision doesn't mean automatic death for an individual, that's not how the risk calculations work. It's saying that if we roll the dice and choose an option where the relative probability of someone like me dying is greater than the relative probability of a 20 year old dying, then that's OK. I'm hardly going to be over the moon about it, and I hope that the outcome is that neither of us die, but I understand the marginal extra risk that someone my age carries. The truth is I carry a higher risk in practically every aspect of my life than a 20 year old does, it's the price of ageing.
-
@Paekakboyz i guess the key is, did they learn anything from the 1st lockdown to do it better this time, or are they just gonna do it the same again?
-
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Paekakboyz i guess the key is, did they learn anything from the 1st lockdown to do it better this time, or are they just gonna do it the same again?
Hard to say. Will butchers be allowed to open under Lvl 4 this time? Has any more work been done into what actually is essential? I suspect it will be identical, in which case, yeah, we learned nothing.