Coronavirus - UK
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@MajorRage said in Coronavirus - UK:
Whitty & Vallance gave the UK an update on factual information. It was worthwhile watching & I thoroughly enjoyed turning off the TV as the media companies then went through what it all meant. I.e - what they think it means which will help their ratings.
Could be up to 50k cases per day if nothing changes by November, which translates to 200 deaths per day.
The $64,000 question is the fatality rate, which is VERY low at present.
Going to be a heavy 6 months ahead, and we all must play our part.
EDIT: Because I am detrimental to myself at times, I had a quick twitter scan. Yep, media are showing varied updates showered with their own opinions which are extremely mixed. A lot of anger of no questions & no politicians.
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@sparky said in Coronavirus - UK:
UK goes up from Level 3 (virus out there, restrictions being removed) to Level 4 (virus in general transmission and growing exponentially).
Up to the devolved administrations to decide what to do now. COBR meeting tomorrow.
Apparently the levels are based on the Nando's Spice level chart.
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@Crucial said in Coronavirus - UK:
@sparky said in Coronavirus - UK:
UK goes up from Level 3 (virus out there, restrictions being removed) to Level 4 (virus in general transmission and growing exponentially).
Up to the devolved administrations to decide what to do now. COBR meeting tomorrow.
Apparently the levels are based on the Nando's Spice level chart.
They'll be hoping for lemon pepper ASAP then
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@Crucial said in Coronavirus - UK:
@sparky said in Coronavirus - UK:
UK goes up from Level 3 (virus out there, restrictions being removed) to Level 4 (virus in general transmission and growing exponentially).
Up to the devolved administrations to decide what to do now. COBR meeting tomorrow.
Apparently the levels are based on the Nando's Spice level chart.
So long as they don’t adopt that for tax I’m with them!
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Just back from shopping in Liskeard.
Really big ramp up in measures by supermarkets and shops - as strict as it was at peak Covid-19. Word on the street is a lot of people testing positive after the warm weather and knob-head tourists who wouldn't stick to the rules spreading infections.
I really am getting fed up with this Covid shit. Peak motorcycle weather has passed and autumn pub visits and Christmas shopping looks to be pretty farked up as well.
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I guess it's all about how long the lag is but the signs are the NHS is much better equipped to cope this time.
Daily New cases have tripled since the start of the month. Daily deaths have doubled but that death rate was off a really low base so doubling equates to 37 deaths in real terms.
By comparison the last time we saw Daily New cases at the same rate as today was early May and there were over 1,000 deaths per day.
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - UK:
I guess it's all about how long the lag is but the signs are the NHS is much better equipped to cope this time.
Daily New cases have tripled since the start of the month. Daily deaths have doubled but that death rate was off a really low base so doubling equates to 37 deaths in real terms.
By comparison the last time we saw Daily New cases at the same rate as today was early May and there were over 1,000 deaths per day.
This ratio is what should be used to decide lockdowns, number in hospital + deaths. Not the number of cases.
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@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - UK:
@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - UK:
I guess it's all about how long the lag is but the signs are the NHS is much better equipped to cope this time.
Daily New cases have tripled since the start of the month. Daily deaths have doubled but that death rate was off a really low base so doubling equates to 37 deaths in real terms.
By comparison the last time we saw Daily New cases at the same rate as today was early May and there were over 1,000 deaths per day.
This ratio is what should be used to decide lockdowns, number in hospital + deaths. Not the number of cases.
Isn’t the aim to head those hospitalised and dead numbers off before they happen?
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@Crucial said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - UK:
@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - UK:
I guess it's all about how long the lag is but the signs are the NHS is much better equipped to cope this time.
Daily New cases have tripled since the start of the month. Daily deaths have doubled but that death rate was off a really low base so doubling equates to 37 deaths in real terms.
By comparison the last time we saw Daily New cases at the same rate as today was early May and there were over 1,000 deaths per day.
This ratio is what should be used to decide lockdowns, number in hospital + deaths. Not the number of cases.
Isn’t the aim to head those hospitalised and dead numbers off before they happen?
My point is that the number of cases in the "second wave" doesn't appear to be as deadly or force as many people into hospital as the first wave. So the lockdown calcuation needs to change with the new data
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@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Crucial said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - UK:
@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - UK:
I guess it's all about how long the lag is but the signs are the NHS is much better equipped to cope this time.
Daily New cases have tripled since the start of the month. Daily deaths have doubled but that death rate was off a really low base so doubling equates to 37 deaths in real terms.
By comparison the last time we saw Daily New cases at the same rate as today was early May and there were over 1,000 deaths per day.
This ratio is what should be used to decide lockdowns, number in hospital + deaths. Not the number of cases.
Isn’t the aim to head those hospitalised and dead numbers off before they happen?
My point is that the number of cases in the "second wave" doesn't appear to be as deadly or force as many people into hospital as the first wave. So the lockdown calcuation needs to change with the new data
The thresholds change for sure, but it should be that the rate of cases growth can have more tolerance. No use counting the dead and then reacting
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@Crucial I agree with that, but ultimately I think they are learning (hopefully) as we go on how best to manage this, and manage how Kiwis will react to any further restrictions (which is getting less favorable with the bungles at our border)
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@Crucial said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Crucial said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - UK:
@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - UK:
I guess it's all about how long the lag is but the signs are the NHS is much better equipped to cope this time.
Daily New cases have tripled since the start of the month. Daily deaths have doubled but that death rate was off a really low base so doubling equates to 37 deaths in real terms.
By comparison the last time we saw Daily New cases at the same rate as today was early May and there were over 1,000 deaths per day.
This ratio is what should be used to decide lockdowns, number in hospital + deaths. Not the number of cases.
Isn’t the aim to head those hospitalised and dead numbers off before they happen?
My point is that the number of cases in the "second wave" doesn't appear to be as deadly or force as many people into hospital as the first wave. So the lockdown calcuation needs to change with the new data
The thresholds change for sure, but it should be that the rate of cases growth can have more tolerance. No use counting the dead and then reacting
Also no use destroying an economy if 10,000 cases means 2 people in hospital and no deaths (random number picked from my arse). Have to use the data properly.
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@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Crucial said in Coronavirus - UK:
@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - UK:
@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - UK:
I guess it's all about how long the lag is but the signs are the NHS is much better equipped to cope this time.
Daily New cases have tripled since the start of the month. Daily deaths have doubled but that death rate was off a really low base so doubling equates to 37 deaths in real terms.
By comparison the last time we saw Daily New cases at the same rate as today was early May and there were over 1,000 deaths per day.
This ratio is what should be used to decide lockdowns, number in hospital + deaths. Not the number of cases.
Isn’t the aim to head those hospitalised and dead numbers off before they happen?
My point is that the number of cases in the "second wave" doesn't appear to be as deadly or force as many people into hospital as the first wave. So the lockdown calcuation needs to change with the new data
It probably has changed though.
Uk went into lockdown on 16 March when 7-day average was 158 daily cases and 9 daily deaths.Currently it is 7-day average of 4,501 daily cases and 25 daily deaths.
(I don't know the hospitalisation stats).
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i still battle to get my head around the fact we ground the world to a halt for a disease that has killed less than a million people over the course of 9 months. That's world wide.
The world's population has grown by 60 million in 2020
yes, i understand it would have been different if we did nothing, that's not my angle. I am just staggered that it happened, and struggle to process it.
And there is no end in sight. It's just mind blowing.
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - UK:
i still battle to get my head around the fact we ground the world to a halt for a disease that has killed less than a million people over the course of 9 months. That's world wide.
The world's population has grown by 60 million in 2020
yes, i understand it would have been different if we did nothing, that's not my angle. I am just staggered that it happened, and struggle to process it.
And there is no end in sight. It's just mind blowing.
Faced with a similar challenge in 2018, without the technology and medical know how of 2020, the world lost 5% of its population to the itty bitty yearly flu