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Never will be a flood of new builds. Too much land banking going on. And not just by dodgy private owners, local councils and the govt are just as guilty. New sub divisions and blocks are drip feed.
Nothing will ever change with nz housing now. Horse has bolted, too many have skin in the game especially with land. -
Material costs are a big part of it too. I would have built a new house on my land, which would have added to the stock, but the materials were ridiculously expensive. So I am moving a house and not adding to the supply at all as where it is coming from will be commercial.
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@taniwharugby said in NZ Politics:
@nzzp but thing is with the price of construction, that isnt going to drive prices down to where they should be...
One of the areas they do Kiwibuild up here isnt in a desirable area, and these new homes are >$550,000, hardly a good price for a new home buyer.
Sensible vs realistic is also probably quite different too!
I have no figures to back up, but in AKLD the unitary plan which allows for higher density housing seems to have driven the price of land up. Punters seem to be paying a huge amount more for sizable sections with the promise of building more units for more profit. Ultimately it remains to be seen if the increase in supply affects the price of smaller houses/ townhouses. New home buyers will find it easier to get into one of those
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@canefan a 3 bed terrace, 125m2 in Glen Innes going for $890k.
Honestly, it's nuts. If that doesn't feel expensive, god knows what does.
Also, peopel forget that big mortgages take a long time to pay back, even if interest rates are low. $800k mortgage at $750k/week ($3k/month) will take 22 years. And you've got interest on that of (currently) $400/week (at 2.5%). That is a lot of money for a starter home.
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@nzzp said in NZ Politics:
@taniwharugby said in NZ Politics:
thing is how do they fix it?
Even a 'jolt' of a 25% drop isnt going to correct much, and all that will do is create 'cheaper' houses for people to buy up and start the rise again.
Literally build more houses. Christchurch did it, and if you flood the supply side, you don't pay a premium for a used house.
The thing is as far as I can tell is that everyone fixates on the house, and it ain't the house - it's the land with infrastructure. And the infrastructure is the important and expensive part. Built Smart will deliver a decent quality 100m2 3 bed home on a site for $200k. It is not the price of the house that is driving up the housing cost, it's the section to put it on that's connected to waste.
If I were a benevolent dictator (vote NZZP, yay!), I'd be stimulating supply by investing in the infrastructure near major cities, and facilitating folk living in smaller towns away from cities to reduce demand. Do that for a few years, and you potentially get house prices to a sensible level. Needs major commitment and drive though, and I can't see it happening.
That's a really good point. The aim for any govt now is to slow the rate of increase and work on incomes closing the gap. Reducing the values isn't going to happen, too much skin in the game and too much risk of a crash.
Obtaining/releasing land and investing in infrastructure would, over time, increase supply. You could even look at govt land ownership/lease as a model with the dividend/rental covering lending costs. An annuity style mortgage on the ownership that gets sold with the property so that the capital is recovered over say, 100 years. -
was just talking to a client before, and we hear all this talk of foreign students and workers...
He was saying Immigration refused to extend Visas of 240 Thai Students who have been here since before Covid.
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@nzzp said in NZ Politics:
@canefan a 3 bed terrace, 125m2 in Glen Innes going for $890k.
Honestly, it's nuts. If that doesn't feel expensive, god knows what does.
Also, peopel forget that big mortgages take a long time to pay back, even if interest rates are low. $800k mortgage at $750k/week ($3k/month) will take 22 years. And you've got interest on that of (currently) $400/week (at 2.5%). That is a lot of money for a starter home.
Doesn't really add up does it? A 30 year mortgage with %20 deposit would have repayments of $2810 at %2.5 interest (and who knows how long that will last).
Average wage before tax is apparently around $53k, so around net $43k, $3583 per mth.
So welcome to Tokoroa where you probaly can't earn $53K anyway.
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@nzzp said in NZ Politics:
@canefan a 3 bed terrace, 125m2 in Glen Innes going for $890k.
Honestly, it's nuts. If that doesn't feel expensive, god knows what does.
Also, peopel forget that big mortgages take a long time to pay back, even if interest rates are low. $800k mortgage at $750k/week ($3k/month) will take 22 years. And you've got interest on that of (currently) $400/week (at 2.5%). That is a lot of money for a starter home.
Crazy eh? If there is going to be an effect it will take years and years to rebalance. There are stories of 800m to 1000m sections with house on in Mt Roskill and Mt Albert (hardly blue chip) going for $3M. The UP will allow for 8-10 units to be built on sections of that size, so the developers win again. At that price the prospect of a nice sized section with house is getting further out of reach
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@Snowy said in NZ Politics:
@nzzp said in NZ Politics:
@canefan a 3 bed terrace, 125m2 in Glen Innes going for $890k.
Honestly, it's nuts. If that doesn't feel expensive, god knows what does.
Also, peopel forget that big mortgages take a long time to pay back, even if interest rates are low. $800k mortgage at $750k/week ($3k/month) will take 22 years. And you've got interest on that of (currently) $400/week (at 2.5%). That is a lot of money for a starter home.
Doesn't really add up does it? A 30 year mortgage with %20 deposit would have repayments of $2810 at %2.5 interest (and who knows how long that will last).
Average wage before tax is apparently around $53k, so around net $43k, $3583 per mth.
So welcome to Tokoroa where you probaly can't earn $53K anyway.
Not legally anyway
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@Snowy said in NZ Politics:
@nzzp said in NZ Politics:
@canefan a 3 bed terrace, 125m2 in Glen Innes going for $890k.
Honestly, it's nuts. If that doesn't feel expensive, god knows what does.
Also, peopel forget that big mortgages take a long time to pay back, even if interest rates are low. $800k mortgage at $750k/week ($3k/month) will take 22 years. And you've got interest on that of (currently) $400/week (at 2.5%). That is a lot of money for a starter home.
Doesn't really add up does it? A 30 year mortgage with %20 deposit would have repayments of $2810 at %2.5 interest (and who knows how long that will last).
Average wage before tax is apparently around $53k, so around net $43k, $3583 per mth.
So welcome to Tokoroa where you probaly can't earn $53K anyway.
I do believe Tokoroa has one of the highest average incomes in NZ, along with Kawerau due to the MIlls and associated by-lines of industry.
I will try and back that up with some tangible data
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@Hooroo said in NZ Politics:
@Snowy said in NZ Politics:
@nzzp said in NZ Politics:
@canefan a 3 bed terrace, 125m2 in Glen Innes going for $890k.
Honestly, it's nuts. If that doesn't feel expensive, god knows what does.
Also, peopel forget that big mortgages take a long time to pay back, even if interest rates are low. $800k mortgage at $750k/week ($3k/month) will take 22 years. And you've got interest on that of (currently) $400/week (at 2.5%). That is a lot of money for a starter home.
Doesn't really add up does it? A 30 year mortgage with %20 deposit would have repayments of $2810 at %2.5 interest (and who knows how long that will last).
Average wage before tax is apparently around $53k, so around net $43k, $3583 per mth.
So welcome to Tokoroa where you probaly can't earn $53K anyway.
I do believe Tokoroa has one of the highest average incomes in NZ, along with Kawerau due to the MIlls and associated by-lines of industry.
I will try and back that up with some tangible data
Totally off topic but their KFC is of a very good standard
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@Hooroo said in NZ Politics:
@Snowy said in NZ Politics:
@nzzp said in NZ Politics:
@canefan a 3 bed terrace, 125m2 in Glen Innes going for $890k.
Honestly, it's nuts. If that doesn't feel expensive, god knows what does.
Also, peopel forget that big mortgages take a long time to pay back, even if interest rates are low. $800k mortgage at $750k/week ($3k/month) will take 22 years. And you've got interest on that of (currently) $400/week (at 2.5%). That is a lot of money for a starter home.
Doesn't really add up does it? A 30 year mortgage with %20 deposit would have repayments of $2810 at %2.5 interest (and who knows how long that will last).
Average wage before tax is apparently around $53k, so around net $43k, $3583 per mth.
So welcome to Tokoroa where you probaly can't earn $53K anyway.
I do believe Tokoroa has one of the highest average incomes in NZ, along with Kawerau due to the MIlls and associated by-lines of industry.
I will try and back that up with some tangible data
Don't forget their rugby player export industry
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@Hooroo We can make it Kaitaia or Raetihi, Taumaranui. The point remains that you have to live where the cheap housing is to get a foot in the door (literally) and then it becomes harder to keep an income big enough. It would be more achievable than Auckland though.
@canefan Paying for KFC might be an issue with a negative cashflow but worth moving there for I'm sure (as well as it being a lovely tropical pacific island of course).
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@Crucial said in NZ Politics:
@Hooroo said in NZ Politics:
@Snowy said in NZ Politics:
@nzzp said in NZ Politics:
@canefan a 3 bed terrace, 125m2 in Glen Innes going for $890k.
Honestly, it's nuts. If that doesn't feel expensive, god knows what does.
Also, peopel forget that big mortgages take a long time to pay back, even if interest rates are low. $800k mortgage at $750k/week ($3k/month) will take 22 years. And you've got interest on that of (currently) $400/week (at 2.5%). That is a lot of money for a starter home.
Doesn't really add up does it? A 30 year mortgage with %20 deposit would have repayments of $2810 at %2.5 interest (and who knows how long that will last).
Average wage before tax is apparently around $53k, so around net $43k, $3583 per mth.
So welcome to Tokoroa where you probaly can't earn $53K anyway.
I do believe Tokoroa has one of the highest average incomes in NZ, along with Kawerau due to the MIlls and associated by-lines of industry.
I will try and back that up with some tangible data
Don't forget their rugby player export industry
Like the Venezuela of jinking RL players
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@Snowy said in NZ Politics:
@Hooroo We can make it Kaitaia or Raetihi, Taumaranui. The point remains that you have to live where the cheap housing is to get a foot in the door (literally) and then it becomes harder to keep an income big enough. It would be more achievable than Auckland though.
@canefan Paying for KFC might be an issue with a negative cashflow but worth moving there for I'm sure (as well as it being a lovely tropical pacific island of course).
Fair enough. I can't back up my claim in any case so may well be wrong.
As for KFC Tokoroa, I had some yesterday to support my hangover. It is indeed good KFC. And if you are really nice and polite and friendly, they magic an extra wing or two
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@chimoaus said in NZ Politics:
Whilst NZ housing affordability is very poor many other countries including Australia are in a very similar boat. One saving grace in Australia is that you can move to a regional hot as fuck town and pick up a bargain.
We are the worst. Sure Aussie is bad too, but not as bad and their house prices are dropping right now, while ours are continuing to go up and at an increasing rate.
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@dogmeat said in NZ Politics:
@reprobate All very true so what would you do as an alternative. The rising house prices reflect low interest rates as a result of quantative easing as an attempt to protect businesses and jobs.
No political party spoke out against this except guardedly ACT. So it seems the trade off to rising house prices is that you may be able to afford one - if only you had a job.
The govt could ramp up the building of state houses (already has) but we're short of builders so......
Personally I think this is short term and that there's going to be a correction once the economy really starts to tank in the New Year. Equities are also setting record highs. It all feels a bit party, party because tomorrow we die.
It's not that complicated to me, though it does take time and a co-ordinated effort.
New Zealand is not short on land, though more needs to be made available. That's largely local government as I understand it. Get that sorted so there are places to build where people want to live.
Then we need more building and less buying from investors. These people will do what the $ tell them to do, prevent them from buying, and encourage them to build. LVR, tax, a flat ban for 5 years, whatever - the government is already manipulating the market via interest rates and LVR, why not actually do it in a positive manner. Land banking could be disincentivised too.Sadly you're right, it seems nobody has the balls to address it. This is fucking weird to me when, as per previous post, high and rising prices are disadvantageous or neutral to most of the population.
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@reprobate said in NZ Politics:
@chimoaus said in NZ Politics:
Whilst NZ housing affordability is very poor many other countries including Australia are in a very similar boat. One saving grace in Australia is that you can move to a regional hot as fuck town and pick up a bargain.
We are the worst. Sure Aussie is bad too, but not as bad and their house prices are dropping right now, while ours are continuing to go up and at an increasing rate.
That's bad. I don't know how they fix that, capital gains tax in Oz didn't have the desired effect of softening house prices did it?
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@canefan said in NZ Politics:
@reprobate said in NZ Politics:
@chimoaus said in NZ Politics:
Whilst NZ housing affordability is very poor many other countries including Australia are in a very similar boat. One saving grace in Australia is that you can move to a regional hot as fuck town and pick up a bargain.
We are the worst. Sure Aussie is bad too, but not as bad and their house prices are dropping right now, while ours are continuing to go up and at an increasing rate.
That's bad. I don't know how they fix that, capital gains tax in Oz didn't have the desired effect of softening house prices did it?
It is bad, and it's now worse than that graph - I think NZ as a whole is over 7.5 x income now, and Auckland over 8x.
There are a number of things that can be done - the astonishing thing is to not even try. Or even be prepared to talk about the problem really - it's an absolute disaster, and we've just had an election where it was roundly ignored.
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@reprobate said in NZ Politics:
@canefan said in NZ Politics:
@reprobate said in NZ Politics:
@chimoaus said in NZ Politics:
Whilst NZ housing affordability is very poor many other countries including Australia are in a very similar boat. One saving grace in Australia is that you can move to a regional hot as fuck town and pick up a bargain.
We are the worst. Sure Aussie is bad too, but not as bad and their house prices are dropping right now, while ours are continuing to go up and at an increasing rate.
That's bad. I don't know how they fix that, capital gains tax in Oz didn't have the desired effect of softening house prices did it?
It is bad, and it's now worse than that graph - I think NZ as a whole is over 7.5 x income now, and Auckland over 8x.
There are a number of things that can be done - the astonishing thing is to not even try. Or even be prepared to talk about the problem really - it's an absolute disaster, and we've just had an election where it was roundly ignored.
One of the staff at our work bought a few months ago and the on paper value has already increased by 6%. The situation is ridiculous, but I don't know how this bubble will ever burst
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