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@Crucial said in US Politics:
Polls take account by having margins of error.
Those margins can be considerable and up to 5%.Margins of error in polls don't do that because that's not what's meant by the margin of error.
What it actually means is given a truly random, unbiased sample with truthful responses we can say with 95% confidence (i.e. there's a 95% probability) that the result for the whole population would be within the margin of error from the result. It's just a calculation of how much random samples can vary based on probability distributions.
Anything else that makes the poll not representative of the population, which is what shy Trump voters would be, aren't covered by this statistic.
https://www.statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/hypothesis-testing/margin-of-error/
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@pakman said in US Politics:
I never suggested doing nothing. BUT the THING which does need to be done is to TAX Chinese and Indian imports to remove the competitive advantage they gain from their failure to alter their dirty environmental practices.
The world is shifting East and the idea of the West deciding what is and isn't a competitive advantage is increasingly a no go - as the EU found out when Modi told them he wasn't interested in any India/EU trade deal which interfered with India's internal policy making.
I'll say this for Trump. he has at least recognised the issues the West faces in trade with, say, China and India. His solutions may or may not be the right ones, but he hasn't hid his head in the sand like, say, Merkel has.
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@Victor-Meldrew I do get the feeling that Merkel is mainly interested in saving what is left of her legacy. Or should I say her perceived legacy.
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@Victor-Meldrew said in US Politics:
@pakman said in US Politics:
I never suggested doing nothing. BUT the THING which does need to be done is to TAX Chinese and Indian imports to remove the competitive advantage they gain from their failure to alter their dirty environmental practices.
The world is shifting East and the idea of the West deciding what is and isn't a competitive advantage is increasingly a no go - as the EU found out when Modi told them he wasn't interested in any India/EU trade deal which interfered with India's internal policy making.
I'll say this for Trump. he has at least recognised the issues the West faces in trade with, say, China and India. His solutions may or may not be the right ones, but he hasn't hid his head in the sand like, say, Merkel has.
Agree on Trump/Merkel.
China/India climate/competitive advantage issues are complex and holistic. Bottom line is that there is a cost from upholding Western ‘values’.
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@Catogrande said in US Politics:
@Victor-Meldrew I do get the feeling that Merkel is mainly interested in saving what is left of her legacy. Or should I say her perceived legacy.
And Merkel seems more interested in propping up domestic industries by hiding behind the EU rather than look at the increasing threat from Asian competitors - at the same time expecting the US, via NATO to guarantee their security.
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@pakman said in US Politics:
Bottom line is that there is a cost from upholding Western ‘values’.
Yep. But will the electorate want to bear the cost of being virtuous or will they expect their politicians to provide a cost and pain-free solution?
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@Victor-Meldrew said in US Politics:
@pakman said in US Politics:
Bottom line is that there is a cost from upholding Western ‘values’.
Yep. But will the electorate want to bear the cost of being virtuous or will they expect their politicians to provide a cost and pain-free solution?
Spot on. My reading would suggest the majority of the electorate prefer the latter.
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@Anonymous said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
Polls take account by having margins of error.
Those margins can be considerable and up to 5%.Margins of error in polls don't do that because that's not what's meant by the margin of error.
What it actually means is given a truly random, unbiased sample with truthful responses we can say with 95% confidence (i.e. there's a 95% probability) that the result for the whole population would be within the margin of error from the result. It's just a calculation of how much random samples can vary based on probability distributions.
Anything else that makes the poll not representative of the population, which is what shy Trump voters would be, aren't covered by this statistic.
https://www.statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/hypothesis-testing/margin-of-error/
Good link, thanks.
What I probably should have said is that the 'shy voters' are likely to be within the margins rather than imply that the pollsters allow for them.
From the link ...
What is a Margin of Error?
A margin of error tells you how many percentage points your results will differ from the real population value. For example, a 95% confidence interval with a 4 percent margin of error means that your statistic will be within 4 percentage points of the real population value 95% of the time.So, at the moment there is a 95% chance that Biden will win even if the States within the margin of error all move in one direction.
Trump is counting on both the margin and the polls being wrong. -
Mainstream media complains about the "spread of misinformation" and then plasters the "fake Melania" story all over their websites.
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@Rembrandt said in US Politics:
@Frank I think the king lost his crown in 2016. Interesting comparing polls to rally turnout, thousands vs dozens (if they're lucky). Very strange election.
Adverts are hilarious.
That is cringe worthingly funny.
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@Rembrandt said in US Politics:
@Frank I think the king lost his crown in 2016. Interesting comparing polls to rally turnout, thousands vs dozens (if they're lucky). Very strange election.
Adverts are hilarious.
wow that is so unhinged
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Its kind of cruel at this point.
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Said it months ago
His family, friends, and the DNC should be fucking ashamed of themselves
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@MiketheSnow said in US Politics:
Said it months ago
His family, friends, and the DNC should be fucking ashamed of themselves
People, inc the DNC, appear so focussed on getting rid of Trump - to the point of obsession - that all other considerations and rationality seem to have gone out the window.
It's a deranged type of politics which seems to believe getting rid of Trump is going to bring in some sort of political nirvana. The voter anger that produced Trump's win in 2016 just isn't going to go away with a Biden victory.
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