Coronavirus - UK
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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@pakman my gut says the opposite.
British public has little respect for govt directives snd I think mixing mingling will rise exponentially starting right now.
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Iām thinking and hoping a bit of both. I agree that the level of compliance is likely to fall but hope that A) that has been factored in to the thinking and that the dramatic improvement in the figures is down primarily to the vaccines and this provides us with a way out that is not lockdown dependent.
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I donāt see any big changes to be honest and anticipate a National lockdown sometime in October or early November for the winter
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@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
I donāt see any big changes to be honest and anticipate a National lockdown sometime in October or early November for the winter
That would be nothing other than an unmitigated disaster after the year we've had and the rapid development and supply of vaccines. All for a virus that hardly affects the majority of the population.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - UK:
@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
I donāt see any big changes to be honest and anticipate a National lockdown sometime in October or early November for the winter
That would be nothing other than an unmitigated disaster after the year we've had and the rapid development and supply of vaccines. All for a virus that hardly affects the majority of the population.
Agreed
But thatās whatās being mooted for Wales.
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@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
I donāt see any big changes to be honest and anticipate a National lockdown sometime in October or early November for the winter
I'm not ruling it out and Whitty has said as much that there may well be some restrictions next Winter.
But the politics will make it extremely tough to get this through.
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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
I donāt see any big changes to be honest and anticipate a National lockdown sometime in October or early November for the winter
I'm not ruling it out and Whitty has said as much that there may well be some restrictions next Winter.
But the politics will make it extremely tough to get this through.
Well thereāll be no opposition from Starmer, so thatās one less hurdle
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@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
I donāt see any big changes to be honest and anticipate a National lockdown sometime in October or early November for the winter
I'm not ruling it out and Whitty has said as much that there may well be some restrictions next Winter.
But the politics will make it extremely tough to get this through.
Well thereāll be no opposition from Starmer, so thatās one less hurdle
I saw a great quote on Andrew Neil's page about Starmer's strategy:
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@tewaio said in Coronavirus - UK:
Still locked up until June. What a joke.
Ironically I tested positive for coronavirus a few hours after posting this.
No idea how I caught it, have been working from home since March and seeing hardly anyone as have a young baby. My wife felt a bit unwell so we both got tested, otherwise I wouldn't have bothered. She was negative. I just feel a bit tired - as you'd expect with a baby anyway!
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@tewaio said in Coronavirus - UK:
@tewaio said in Coronavirus - UK:
Still locked up until June. What a joke.
Ironically I tested positive for coronavirus a few hours after posting this.
No idea how I caught it, have been working from home since March and seeing hardly anyone as have a young baby. My wife felt a bit unwell so we both got tested, otherwise I wouldn't have bothered. She was negative. I just feel a bit tired - as you'd expect with a baby anyway!
Hope it blows over without too much fuss mate
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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - UK:
I saw a great quote on Andrew Neil's page about Starmer's strategy:
Starmer has a strategy?
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SAGE modelling which seems to have been behind the super timid unlocking roadmap: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963400/S1116_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_modelling_on_scenario_for_easing_restrictions.pdf
Spent some time looking at this.
As they note, outputs are 'critically dependent on very uncertain modelled assumptions'.
Key assumptions are denoted Central (conservative) and Pessimistic (absurd). Studies posted elsewhere here by @Victor-Meldrew etc. indicate actual vaccination protection is coming in at better thn the 'Central' assumptions.
Four scenarios. One, in essence unlock now, predictably leads to big resurgence.
Many outputs indicate substantial deaths.
Trouble is that no account taken of strong evidence that vaccination is 99% effective in preventing deaths!
And actual vaccination take up is much higher among Over 70s than assumed.
Also can't seem to find age banded mortality assumptions, which suggests there are none.
SPA-M panel up for the 2021 Neil Ferguson Award!
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@tewaio said in Coronavirus - UK:
@tewaio said in Coronavirus - UK:
Still locked up until June. What a joke.
Ironically I tested positive for coronavirus a few hours after posting this.
No idea how I caught it, have been working from home since March and seeing hardly anyone as have a young baby. My wife felt a bit unwell so we both got tested, otherwise I wouldn't have bothered. She was negative. I just feel a bit tired - as you'd expect with a baby anyway!
Get well soon
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Passports at the ready, but not to leave the country
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@tewaio said in Coronavirus - UK:
@tewaio said in Coronavirus - UK:
Still locked up until June. What a joke.
Ironically I tested positive for coronavirus a few hours after posting this.
No idea how I caught it, have been working from home since March and seeing hardly anyone as have a young baby. My wife felt a bit unwell so we both got tested, otherwise I wouldn't have bothered. She was negative. I just feel a bit tired - as you'd expect with a baby anyway!
Hope your symptoms are mild, which seems likely given you haven't been exposed to the outside world.
Sounds a bit of a mystery how you got it.
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@tewaio Glad you aren't feeling too bad.
Think some of these test results a bit shonky. Very odd that your wife who actually is ill is negative, whilst you positive.
My neighbour had all the symptoms (nailed Covid bingo as he called it) and tested negative as well as negative for the antibodies. He couldn't tell the difference between tea and coffee!
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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@tewaio Glad you aren't feeling too bad.
Think some of these test results a bit shonky. Very odd that your wife who actually is ill is negative, whilst you positive.
My neighbour had all the symptoms (nailed Covid bingo as he called it) and tested negative as well as negative for the antibodies. He couldn't tell the difference between tea and coffee!
Apparently 50% of PCR tests are false positives.
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@tim said in Coronavirus - UK:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - UK:
Aparently 50% of PCR tests are false positives.
That sounds very wrong. What is the source? I've seen nothing like that.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - UK:
@tim said in Coronavirus - UK:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - UK:
Aparently 50% of PCR tests are false positives.
That sounds very wrong. What is the source? I've seen nothing like that.
I read that as saying that evidence of Covid is detected but the virus is no longer viable. There only āfalseā in the sense of transmission ability.
Still a concern considering that this is the test being relied on for travel.
We have urged my son and his partner to test well before the required flight test so that they have time to get cleared should unknown positive results show.