Coronavirus - New Zealand
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@nzzp yet this case wouldnt have been unexpected had the previous family told the truth about contact with this person, so you'd have to think level change was entirely avoidable (the argument we shouldnt have dropped so early the other week is another issue)
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@nzzp while hoping this outbreak can be squished this latest fuck up has to act as the last warning to people imo. From here on out we need to get tougher and there needs to be repercussions for these sorts of actions -
With vaccines coming through we need to hang on so we can drastically reduce the chance of it spreading via our Q facilities. Definitely agree we should be prioritising south Akld alongside Q workers and our vaccination staff. -
@nzzp We are not at the back of the queue for vaccine and we haven't gone into L3 every time we have a case. We didn't for the Defence Force cluster or the Northland one.
I'm as fucked off as anyone about being back at L3 but it is a total misrepresentation to say the govt hasn't learned anything in 12 months. They have made plenty of mistakes but how we respond to Covid has evolved. Unfortunately so has the virus. We simply can't instigate the same policies as the likes of Taiwan and Singapore. Kiwi's are far less quiescent. What can be done on those countries can't be replicated here. The yells of police state would be deafening.
I have been thinking about what needs to be done with this selfish prick who has cost us all a large measure of freedom and the economy millions. I can't see any defence for his actions. Personal responsibility FFS. Yeah a 21 yr old is still a kid, but he knew what he was doing was wrong and thought fuck it anyway.
The problem as I see it is people inherently lie and that is a conundrum for the government. Increase punishments for transgressions. People will simply lie or avoid getting tested at all so they don't get found out.
I have been told by a very senior source that Ministry of Health are pretty sure how this latest outbreak got across the border but it can't be proven. Not blaming the woman at the airport as she may not be patient 0 but someone contracted it at the airport and the very high suspicion is they were friendly with someone they wouldn't want their partner to know about. So they lie. More draconian measures simply increases the probability that people will cover up their actions.
We have thousands of exampoles of people not doing the right thing. Just look at the queues to get out of Auckland.
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp We are not at the back of the queue for vaccine and we haven't gone into L3 every time we have a case. We didn't for the Defence Force cluster or the Northland one.
I agree - but the last two 'unexpected' cases in teh community have gone straight to L3. I don't think the government have another option with our current culture. Our collective actions - not scanning, not socially distancing, not wearing masks by default - is leaving us vulnerable to outbreaks. That leaves us in a fragile system.
Edit: I didn't address the 'back of the queue' comment -- but we sure as hell aren't at the front. Not much we can do there, but we're going to be exposed for some considerable time waiting to get enough people vaccinated.
Seriously, we need culture change in this area, and that's going to hard work, at best moderately effective, and bloody unpopular. If we don't commit to that, then we will keep a fragile system that means that we'll be yo-yoing in and out of levels as we won't have a choice.
I'm as fucked off as anyone about being back at L3 but it is a total misrepresentation to say the govt hasn't learned anything in 12 months.
You'll note I didn't say that. The government have definitely evolved and responded, but it feels very reactionary. The cost of the last two lockdowns would comfortably have covered (for instance) a bluetooth card for everyone in the country. We don't seem to be proactive in wanting to change with our 'she'll be right' attitude. If we take as a given that the virus will cross the border occasionally, how do we build a resilient system inside NZ to avoid that? That is our challenge I'd say
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@dogmeat One thing I can't understand is the whole country not going to L3. As you point out there are alot of people heading out when it's announced.
It's not like there is a wall/moat preventing people from leaving.
We are a small country and don't restrict people's movement so surely a nationwide lockdown is the safest option to prevent community transmission.
As others have mentioned, we appear to rely on luck to stop the spread.
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The NZ mentality is a massive problem. I don't know how you explain to people (all people, as dogmeat says, those fleeing for their baches are just as culpable as those in South Auckland) that not doing the simple things (masks, scanning, self iso and testing if you feel ill, obeying instructions when given) have a tangible destructive effect on everyone, including the people themselves.
"Don't like lockdown?"
"Stressed that your kids have to stay home?"
"Worried about your business/ job security?"Then don't break the fucking rules
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
The NZ mentality is a massive problem.
I'm a goddamn broken record on this, but if I were a benevolent dictator, I'd be pumping money into advertising campaigns driving simple messages, delivered by celebrities and stars.
No scan, no service
Mask up
Social distancing
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@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
The NZ mentality is a massive problem.
I'm a goddamn broken record on this, but if I were a benevolent dictator, I'd be pumping money into advertising campaigns driving simple messages, delivered by celebrities and stars.
No scan, no service
Mask up
Social distancing
And pushing that message with an army of people out in the community, at malls schools clubs and churches to name a few places. Sounds too simple to work, but it would be more constructive than just asking people to be kind. And cheaper than lockdowns
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The kind thing is part of the problem. That implies current events aren't a big deal and it's not that bad if you ignore rules. As is the team of 5 million. This leads people to think that the actions of one won't matter in the bigger scheme of things, and as fuckface has just demonstrated, this is completely false.
Far too many years in government communications has me silently screaming about the foolish messaging. Jacinda should know better, but she loves her catch phrases.
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This guy is on the same page. South Auckland is on the front lines. Pay to get people to help spread the message. If it is too late to get existing staff or new staff up to speed early, enlist the help of community leaders and maybe offer some form of incentive. Try to create a real team atmosphere where people want to take responsibility for each other's actions
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@kirwan Hard to justify economically I guess. No cases in Dunedin since April last year. Asking a lot of businesses down there to go through the same pain as Auckland.
People are morons.
I'm with @nzzp with the benevolent dictator thing, only I wouldn't be very benevolent.
Was out dining when notification came through. Was able to watch presser on phone but clearly most tables didn't. As the rumour got around the restaurant it was interesting to see peoples reactions. The staff in particular were devastated as they don't know if they'll be paid but even diners looked crestfallen.
The place completely emptied in about 20 minutes. We kicked on and ended up in a bar on the waterfront that was heaving. I think we were the only two papalagi there. Having read @JK s comments, I'm now wondering how many of the punters might have come in from Papatoetoe for the night....
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@kirwan Hard to justify economically I guess. No cases in Dunedin since April last year. Asking a lot of businesses down there to go through the same pain as Auckland.
People are morons.
I'm with @nzzp with the benevolent dictator thing, only I wouldn't be very benevolent.
Was out dining when notification came through. Was able to watch presser on phone but clearly most tables didn't. As the rumour got around the restaurant it was interesting to see peoples reactions. The staff in particular were devastated as they don't know if they'll be paid but even diners looked crestfallen.
The place completely emptied in about 20 minutes. We kicked on and ended up in a bar on the waterfront that was heaving. I think we were the only two papalagi there. Having read @JK s comments, I'm now wondering how many of the punters might have come in from Papatoetoe for the night....
Potentially a few eh. We found town got suddenly much busier from 9pm. One place we tried to go in to was exit only so no new patrons allowed in after the announcement
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@winger said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
It's going to be a long and tortuous path to stability if the goal remains elimination until vaccination.
Do you really think the vaccine will make any difference? It will be say oh there's a new variant (that will go on forever) that needs yet another vaccine. That isn't ready yet.
My view is it won't stop until people collectively stop being so very compliant (and even want to punish people or dob people in who aren't good children). And accept that trying to stop a virus is like trying to stop the tide coming in. And think that maybe the way we did things in the past wasn't so bad.
Shit man, I don't know. I've been saying for a long time that I'd like to hear some thoughts on the state of play needed for borders to open up and regular lockdowns to stop. Like you, I'm not that confident in it happening, we all seem to be really supportive of these repeat lockdowns (see election results over the last 12 months around the world)
I'm certainly of the view that elimination policy is a fallacy, and we need to move on from that.
Our initial strategy bought us valuable time and we wasted it
that has happened everywhere in Australasia (perhaps outside NSW?)
I really wan tto know what is better about our preparedness now than 12 months ago. What is our medical capacity. How well does our tracing now work? What better data are we using to make decisions.
Because, from the outside, it looks like we are in the same place as 12 months ago, making the same decisions.
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@winger said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
It's going to be a long and tortuous path to stability if the goal remains elimination until vaccination.
Do you really think the vaccine will make any difference? It will be say oh there's a new variant (that will go on forever) that needs yet another vaccine. That isn't ready yet.
My view is it won't stop until people collectively stop being so very compliant (and even want to punish people or dob people in who aren't good children). And accept that trying to stop a virus is like trying to stop the tide coming in. And think that maybe the way we did things in the past wasn't so bad.
Shit man, I don't know. I've been saying for a long time that I'd like to hear some thoughts on the state of play needed for borders to open up and regular lockdowns to stop. Like you, I'm not that confident in it happening, we all seem to be really supportive of these repeat lockdowns (see election results over the last 12 months around the world)
I'm certainly of the view that elimination policy is a fallacy, and we need to move on from that.
Our initial strategy bought us valuable time and we wasted it
that has happened everywhere in Australasia (perhaps outside NSW?)
I really wan tto know what is better about our preparedness now than 12 months ago. What is our medical capacity. How well does our tracing now work? What better data are we using to make decisions.
Because, from the outside, it looks like we are in the same place as 12 months ago, making the same decisions.
I was totally on board with the flatten the curve idea. The killer part of Covid is how infectious it is, which can quickly overwhelm health systems and people that need care can't get it.
Completely ridding society of the virus altogether and implementing hard lockdowns whenever it rears its head is a lofty goal and a much tougher sell for me.
I guess with the vaccine on the horizon they're going to wait for that before changing the approach to managing the virus within the community without lockdowns.
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@no-quarter But they don't have to change the approach to make sure they optimise capacity do they?
I'd like to know what the ICU beds / ventilator capacity is now compared to a year ago, given that was the premise under which we locked down in the first place. I'll be pretty fucked off if we start getting hospitalisations and immediately run into exactly the same constraints we were apparently trying to avoid last March.
My bet is that there has been no significant upscaling in capacity because otherwise it would have been promoted as a big success story at the election. The way the government patted itself on the back for getting 12 families housed even a couple of ICU additional beds would surely have got a press conference of its own.
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@jc said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
My bet is that there has been no significant upscaling in capacity because otherwise it would have been promoted as a big success story at the election. The way the government patted itself on the back for getting 12 families housed even a couple of ICU additional beds would surely have got a press conference of its own.
If it was a significant upscale in capacity, we'd have probably got a public holiday.
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@donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@jc said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
My bet is that there has been no significant upscaling in capacity because otherwise it would have been promoted as a big success story at the election. The way the government patted itself on the back for getting 12 families housed even a couple of ICU additional beds would surely have got a press conference of its own.
If it was a significant upscale in capacity, we'd have probably got a public holiday.
so, if this upscale hasn't happened, the question arises, is NZ any better prepared for the next thing? Or is the entire strategy being we'll just deal with this one, the next will be someone elses problem?
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One think I'm dubious about is the comment from the PM that "People do dumb things but we're not going to get through this if people pillory them to the point they do not tell the truth."
What this family has shown is that some people don't need to be pilloried not to tell the truth, they will lie anyway if it suits them.
IMO if you want someone to act against their own self-interest the cost of non-compliance has to outweigh the perceived benefit. If the perception is that there is no downside to lying or gaming the system don't be surprised when people do it. As @Mokey says the "be kind" soundbite reinforces the message that nobody will hold you to account beyond a sad smile and a disappointed look. For some people "turn the other cheek" means they get to slap you up both sides of your head.
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@jc said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
My bet is that there has been no significant upscaling in capacity because otherwise it would have been promoted as a big success story at the election. The way the government patted itself on the back for getting 12 families housed even a couple of ICU additional beds would surely have got a press conference of its own.
If it was a significant upscale in capacity, we'd have probably got a public holiday.
so, if this upscale hasn't happened, the question arises, is NZ any better prepared for the next thing? Or is the entire strategy being we'll just deal with this one, the next will be someone elses problem?
My sarcasm aside, I suspect some it was buying time for better and more effective medical treatments to be identified too, as well as ICU capacity. Some of the graphs I saw out of the UK over December/January showed a much higher rate of infection than March/April, but lower rates of hospitalisation and mortality. I'm now sure how much of that was treatment related, vs 'luck' in the demographics infected.
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@jc said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
My bet is that there has been no significant upscaling in capacity because otherwise it would have been promoted as a big success story at the election. The way the government patted itself on the back for getting 12 families housed even a couple of ICU additional beds would surely have got a press conference of its own.
If it was a significant upscale in capacity, we'd have probably got a public holiday.
so, if this upscale hasn't happened, the question arises, is NZ any better prepared for the next thing? Or is the entire strategy being we'll just deal with this one, the next will be someone elses problem?
In Auckland, take the examples of Spaghetti Junction, our lack of mass transit network (despite the idea being proposed by Dove Myer Robinson back in the 50s) and the removing the harbour bridge toll years ago and now facing a bridge that is reaching the end of its life. I suspect we don't do forward planning. 10 years from now we will be just as vulnerable to the next virus