Coronavirus - New Zealand
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I hope they have a great plan for rolling out the vaccine in South Auckland in double quick time. Pretty sure the entire country would be happy to wait so they could get jabbed alongside essential workers, border staff etc, cos this whole shut down the country for a case or two is a terrible long term strategy, both for the economy and mental health.
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@mokey said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I hope they have a great plan for rolling out the vaccine in South Auckland in double quick time. Pretty sure the entire country would be happy to wait so they could get jabbed alongside essential workers, border staff etc, cos this whole shut down the country for a case or two is a terrible long term strategy, both for the economy and mental health.
I hope they have a plan too. I'm not sure they do though
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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
It feels to me that Ardern and co think that its' best to vaccinate the country and then continue with the quarantine for quite some time.
I think the lack of a (public?) plan doesn't help, but I don't think the lack of a detailed road map implies that we'll still stick with quarantine after widespread UK-like vaccinations either.
In some ways, while we finish a wider vaccine rollout over our 2021 winter, maybe we learn from the lessons of the UK and co in reopening borders/an economy/wider society as you're going into your summer months, while we've still kept unemployment at circa 5%, etc, in NZ in the interim.
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I recognise that only as a NZ citizen & secondary tax payer my views are beneath NZ residents.
I think that's overly depressive! But I have been intrigued over the last year that - as a sweeping generalisation (and with 2- 3 exceptions that immediately spring to mind ) - the strongest critics on TSF of the NZ approach are those already living offshore. While most TSF'ers onshore are generally more content with how things are going in Godzone.
For a while now I've been mulling over what that means, if anything at all. Perhaps that most of us have already wisely chosen the places in the world that are best suited to us and our worldviews? Maybe.
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I acknowledge my Dad is a curmudgeonly old bastard at the best of times btw. But what is the roadmap? When can I visit next without quarantine, when will my parents be allowed to leave?
A pedantic point. For all the excitement about Australia briefly opening one way travel bubbles, people are free to leave NZ at any time and don't need approval like our friends from across the ditch (https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/leaving-australia). Though it's getting back in which is the rationed problem for now...
I think it's fair to say that a genuine two -way travel bubble with Oz was hoped for sooner, and that demand for MIQ places from people coming home has been stronger than anticipated, certainly post-Christmas.
Vaccine passports will have to come into the global and NZ travel mix at some stage soon. The dilemma will be how far each nation can trust a document and from where. The Russian fisherman who had been "isolated and tested" before leaving Russia for NZ last October being an salutatory reminder there... not that it should have been much of a surprise.
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Dad genuinely thinks in a few months we'll be out 'n about whilst he will he be locked down in the BoP due to an outbreak of 3-4 people in South Auckland.
I think if the powers-that-be weren't already aware of the risk of creating a Boy Who Cried Wolf effect from going straight to Level 3 and only finding a handful of cases, I think they certainly will be if this week goes well healthwise. For now, I'm just hoping that none of the Friday gym-goers were infected and then went to the Parker fight or Six60...
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If there are vaccine passports, I can anticipate non/short quarantine travel based on testing. No need to have a 2 weeks quarantine if you are vaccinated, coming from a low risk country and testing negative at departure and/or arrival.
Would rather see NZ continue as is than attempt to rush back into the old normal. Fact is, apart from a few blips, they have done very well. If they miraculously get out of this one with no extensions and can avoid future lockdowns till vaccinations are more widespread then they have done very, very well.
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Great answers / comments - some questions.
@donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I think the lack of a (public?) plan doesn't help, but I don't think the lack of a detailed road map implies that we'll still stick with quarantine after widespread UK-like vaccinations either.
I don't agree with that. You can't find any official government postings anywhere on when this will end. This implies to me that it will continue long beyond when countries hit hardest have opened up. Boris has said 21st June we are fully open. That's only 3 months away ... not much personal international travel is booked < 3months in advance.
It would obviously be silly to allow free travel between UK / NZ from this date given that the virus will still be prevalent in the UK then, but you'd at least expect some sort of acknowledgment.
In some ways, while we finish a wider vaccine rollout over our 2021 winter, maybe we learn from the lessons of the UK and co in reopening borders/an economy/wider society as you're going into your summer months, while we've still kept unemployment at circa 5%, etc, in NZ in the interim.
Indeed. We may well be the guinea pigs for you guys to see how it goes. Not sure what your point is re unemployment tho.
I think that's overly depressive! But I have been intrigued over the last year that - as a sweeping generalisation (and with 2- 3 exceptions that immediately spring to mind ) - the strongest critics on TSF of the NZ approach are those already living offshore. While most TSF'ers onshore are generally more content with how things are going in Godzone.
For a while now I've been mulling over what that means, if anything at all. Perhaps that most of us have already wisely chosen the places in the world that are best suited to us and our worldviews? Maybe.
I would say it's the opposite! The TSF view is more negative on NZ by those in NZ than I'd expect! Although that perhaps is because it's a clear contrast to the Jacinda loving media which means she is not being properly held to account for the govt failings.
I also make no secret that my above rant is more about my own thoughts/things, not what may be best for the general NZ population.
A pedantic point. For all the excitement about Australia briefly opening one way travel bubbles, people are free to leave NZ at any time and don't need approval like our friends from across the ditch (https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/leaving-australia). Though it's getting back in which is the rationed problem for now...
I've not looked at it, but my dad is adamant he is not allowed to leave NZ. My left wing sister also says as much.
I think it's fair to say that a genuine two -way travel bubble with Oz was hoped for sooner, and that demand for MIQ places from people coming home has been stronger than anticipated, certainly post-Christmas.
Vaccine passports will have to come into the global and NZ travel mix at some stage soon. The dilemma will be how far each nation can trust a document and from where. The Russian fisherman who had been "isolated and tested" before leaving Russia for NZ last October being an salutatory reminder there... not that it should have been much of a surprise.
Indeed. Although the UK should be ok here. If it's not, then diplomatically that could be a large issue.
I think if the powers-that-be weren't already aware of the risk of creating a Boy Who Cried Wolf effect from going straight to Level 3 and only finding a handful of cases, I think they certainly will be if this week goes well healthwise. For now, I'm just hoping that none of the Friday gym-goers were infected and then went to the Parker fight or Six60...
You'd hope so. But it would mean the would need to be properly held to account, which Ive seen very little of so far ...
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
When Covid first appeared 12 months ago NZ's ICU capacity was 173. By April this increased to 330 and by July 552. I'm not sure what has happened since.
Similarly withy respirators. Don't know current numbers but I do know from a RNZ The Detail podcast that we purchased (medical term) a shitload last year. We also developed a methodology for having one ventilator support multiple patients
Experience from the UK suggests ventilators are needed less and less as Covid treatments are refined. Recovery rates have improved significantly as well.
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@canefan I'm told that didn't happen. What happened was they had excess vaccine and sent out an email to GP's and more turned up than there was excess.
So why the sudden unscheduled need to get people in for the jab? Mrs CF's sister got the call early Saturday evening with an offer to have the first shot immediately, no prior warning. That isn't evidence of a cohesive plan to me
Depends on the vaccine. The Pfizer one can't be stored in a fridge like a normal vaccine and needs to be used quite quickly.
Standard practice in the UK for people to be called at short notice to use any spare doses - it's baked into the planning to get as many people vaccinated as possible. E.g. 1,000 people called and vaccinated within 48 hours of spare box of vaccine being delivered to a Medical Centre.
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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I don't agree with that. You can't find any official government postings anywhere on when this will end. This implies to me that it will continue long beyond when countries hit hardest have opened up. Boris has said 21st June we are fully open. That's only 3 months away ... not much personal international travel is booked < 3months in advance.
And if a new variant appears in one part of the globe, I wonder if Boris sticks to that line in the sand of "fully open". I hope he;s right and I wish him all the best. Just that planning three and a half months ahead has been as much use as crystal ball gazing in the wider covid environment. I wonder if some of the lack of a detailed public plan is to avoid over-promising and under delivering.
I saw something on LinkedIn from one of the consultancies suggesting one big hurdle for international tourism will be travel insurers being prepared to cover Covid related risks again.
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Indeed. We may well be the guinea pigs for you guys to see how it goes. Not sure what your point is re unemployment tho.
That NZ has mostly weathered the worst of the economic and employment expectations, so we're in a great position if we can get the transition to opening right.
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I've not looked at it, but my dad is adamant he is not allowed to leave NZ. My left wing sister also says as much.
They're wrong. It's mainly practical issues of how (very) expensive the flight out is, do they want/can they get travel insurance cover, and how long until they can get an MIQ spot to return.
While the official advice is "do not travel", it doesn't go as far as requiring approval: https://covid19.govt.nz/travel-and-the-border/leaving-new-zealand/
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I would say it's the opposite! The TSF view is more negative on NZ by those in NZ than I'd expect! Although that perhaps is because it's a clear contrast to the Jacinda loving media which means she is not being properly held to account for the govt failings.
There's definitely a group of us onshore on TSF who grouch about some of the specific decisions, me included. I'm thinking more about views toward the overarching NZ approach. So far your post has had likes and a reply of "100" from who I'd have anticipated. You and TeWaio are in the UK (?), Voodoo in Oz, plus Duluth and No Quarter (I think) in NZ. I'm anticipating a couple more names will join you soon
TSF is a lot more thoughtful, and oscillates much less wildly than the remnants of NZ journalism though. We also feel like a good counterpoint to most of NZ Twitter's commentary.
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
But I hear real frustration from my parents over the handling of the whole thing, and the closing off of the country. Dad genuinely thinks in a few months we'll be out 'n about whilst he will he be locked down in the BoP due to an outbreak of 3-4 people in South Auckland.
I'm curious about the comments about your Dad. Those of us living in the Bay have had about seven and a half weeks in Level 4 or Level 3 in the last year. I'm very envious of where the UK is in their vaccination programme, but it feels a bit early to be envious of the likely lockdown situation in the two countries? Those I chat to in the UK seem to see it differently to your Dad. The grass is always greener on the other side, perhaps.
Aucklanders and the hospitality tourism will genuinely differ, but those of us in places like the Western Bay have had an okay ride on the whole and by global standards. Even if Baron would vehemently disagree with me
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@donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
And if a new variant appears in one part of the globe, I wonder if Boris sticks to that line in the sand of "fully open". I hope he;s right and I wish him all the best. Just that planning three and a half months ahead has been as much use as crystal ball gazing in the wider covid environment. I wonder if some of the lack of a detailed public plan is to avoid over-promising and under delivering.
Boris has been very clear that things may well change at each stage of the re-opening. They are being really cautious after last year's problems. There's a lot of concern that the success of the vaccine roll-out might breed complacency.
I have to say I look at the complaints from people in NZ and smile - compared to here, NZ has had minimal disruption and a pretty normal life.
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I shudder to think what it has been like for people in the NH with significant death tolls and repeated lockdowns. You can palpably feel the mental exhaustion of a lot of Aucklander's al Lockdown 3.2 and we have had such a light let off compared to those overseas.
I do believe it has been the fact that we had a (poor weather-wise) summer of life as near normal as anywhere on earth that has made the last three weeks such a ball ache for a lot of people. The end is in sight it seems then whammy. This contributes to the anger felt by a majority towards the 'offenders' in the latest cluster - although I do wonder how many of them could have been caught out in exactly the same way but for the roll of the dice i.e. the majority of the team of 5 Million have been skipping practice and not following their diet plan.
I think there is a plan by the NZ govt. Deal with this current outbreak and any subsequent ones as we have successfully in the past while inoculating those that work at the borders and their close contacts to make it even harder for Covid to enter the country. Then open up travel bubbles. Oz and the Sth Pacific probably I'm guessing Q3. I can then see this being extended to places like Singapore which already allows entry from NZ without the need for quarantine.
Progressively roll out the vaccine to the general population over Q3/4. What happens with international travel isn't for one country to decide.
The doomsayers about NZ's approach have been proven wrong on almost every point to date. Unemployment isn't where they predicted, the economy hasn't tanked, we are not in the depths of depression, mental illness isn't on the rise. Undoubtedly some industry's and individuals are doing it really tough and as I said I think everyone is over 'it' Have we been lucky? Yes? Could we have done better? Certainly in some ways. But it is not all down to dumb luck. We are more fortunate than 99% of the people on the planet because we have followed a plan that has largely worked.
These last couple of weeks have been tough for me. My partners mother died during Level 3. We were lucky enough to bury her under Level 3, then her Dad was diagnosed three days later with a massive cancer wrapped around his spine and is in hospital unlikely to come out and no one can even visit. It sucks for her, but it's been much worse for a lot of other people and it would suck if we had never even heard of Covid. I'm not looking for sympathy I honestly believe that tough as things may be for people here in NZ we need to take stock and get some perspective.
Plus use the covid app and do what we know is right.
Apologies for rant
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@donsteppa Iβll respond a bit later but donβt think Iβm
Being critical of NZ - far from it. The problems it has on the back of Covid are superb ones to have!Iβm just genuinely curious as to the plan to get out as it affects me greatly from a personal point of view.
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Some of the frustration does come from all of our differing circumstances as @MajorRage has said. Those with sick or elderly parents are going to feel differently about travel than some one like me that spent 30 years traveling and has no interest in doing much more. My sister is in Aus and hasn't seen my father (who is in his eighties) for over 2 years, whereas I see him every couple of days as he lives just down the road.
It's not "I'm alright Jack" but the comments about the greater good and how things are done sensibly (but with some compassion) that seem to be a difficult balance to find. I'm nowhere near Auckland but we are still lumped into level 3. There are far more sensible boundaries to use but we have to abide by the rules even if they aren't very practical.
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@snowy Yep, Regional Council boundaries that were based primarily on water catchment boundaries back in 1989 (with some tweaks on the Franklin side after the Super City formation) have never been practical for half of the economic purposes they've been put to. Let alone for Covid in Auckland...
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@donsteppa damn, have I become that predictable?!! π€£
Whilst it's true I'm now in Oz, I've also had the pleasure of being in NZ for self-isolation, L4 Lockdown, then every level on the way back to L1.
I've then experienced NSW as we went through our own levels, inc the Northern Beaches lockdown, and relative freedom either side of that.I think I've been pretty consistent throughout in my criticisms of the NZ Gov. I was supportive of the initial hard lockdown, but I thought we were slow to come out of it. Having lived through that in order to develop "gold standard" tracing systems, I'm not very supportive of recent lockdowns almost a full year later for very small numbers of cases. And I contrast it to the way NSW has managed larger outbreaks here.
Mostly, I just want to hear some semblance of a plan around vaccinations, around returning to normality wrt to trade and travel and freedoms. Some indication that eventually we will give up this folly of elimination and learnt to live with this.
I have friends in NZ who have been totally unaffected by this. Have actually thoroughly enjoyed being locked down. Secure jobs, kids too young or old to trouble them with home-schooling. They don't want to hear a bad word about Jacinda.
They also trot out that unemployment line regularly, even though the reality is that it's totally propped up by the Gov debt going from $50bn to $200bn by 2024. I've been told no international students til 2022, and its hard to see international travel until then either.
Even if you're prepared to pay for your MIQ, getting a spot is a total disaster. I looked the other week, there wasn't a single spot available to book, for any date in the future!
NZ had every advantage in managing this disease from a health perspective, but they still had to deliver on it. And we did that at the outset. I'm just not we can say the same holds true now, both in terms of health (poor vaccination plan) , or in terms of the economy.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
They also trot out that unemployment line regularly, even though the reality is that it's totally propped up by the Gov debt going from $50bn to $200bn by 2024.
For better or worse, that's literally NZ's cross-party economic disaster recovery plan for everything (except ACT's). Run up debt when the global economy get's tough or the Pacific ring of fire flares up, then pay it down in the better times. Put to good effect by Bill English for the GFC and the Christchurch earthquakes. Keep most people in jobs, then try and grow our way out of the debt.
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Whilst it's true I'm now in Oz, I've also had the pleasure of being in NZ for self-isolation, L4 Lockdown, then every level on the way back to L1.
I've then experienced NSW as we went through our own levels, inc the Northern Beaches lockdown, and relative freedom either side of that.You've lived through it more than most, so I still wonder if it's your fault
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Even if you're prepared to pay for your MIQ, getting a spot is a total disaster. I looked the other week, there wasn't a single spot available to book, for any date in the future!
I think MIQ demand was significantly underestimated. It might have been eased by an Australian style control on departures, but also by more capacity too...
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
They also trot out that unemployment line regularly, even though the reality is that it's totally propped up by the Gov debt going from $50bn to $200bn by 2024. I've been told no international students til 2022, and its hard to see international travel until then either.
The job losses have definitely hit in that sector. I wonder how many of the 1,000 Masters students exempted will get deterred by the increase in quarantine fees...
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@voodoo I'm pretty much as unaffected as your friends but I'm happy to hear plenty of bad words about Jacinda. It's just when I contrast her with ScoMo BoJo or DumbDo I think meh - maybe not so bad.
The NZ response was pretty similar to NSW's this last time round, but they made the call it hadn't worked solely because the rules haven't been followed. Personally I give no credence to the apologists who are trying to shift the blame from personal responsibility to poor messaging by Ministry of Health. Twelve months fuckwits. You knew what the rules were. Don't even try it.
I agree about international students (large number come from Covid hot spots) and travel. Sucks for those affected but I think both of those industries were due a reset anyhow.
Govt debt. Fuck I wish it was higher. Borrow fucking more while money is so cheap and use it to catch up on decades of infrastructure underspend. It's still low by comparison with almost every developed country and economically we are performing way better than those same countries. Our govt debt will still peak at less than most European countries levels pre Covid.
I give the govt a cautious pass on Covid. It's everything else I criticise them for - although I don't see the opposition parties offering anything as an alternative
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@donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
They also trot out that unemployment line regularly, even though the reality is that it's totally propped up by the Gov debt going from $50bn to $200bn by 2024.
For better or worse, that's literally NZ's cross-party economic disaster recovery plan for everything (except ACT's). Run up debt when the global economy get's tough or the Pacific ring of fire flares up, then pay it down in the better times. Put to good effect by Bill English for the GFC and the Christchurch earthquakes. Keep most people in jobs, then try and grow our way out of the debt.
Yeah, don't disagree with that, I'm just also making the point that:
a. Debt could have been lower with more judicious use of the lockdown stick; and
b. Low unemployment isn't some magical evidence of successful economic planning@donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Even if you're prepared to pay for your MIQ, getting a spot is a total disaster. I looked the other week, there wasn't a single spot available to book, for any date in the future!
I think MIQ demand was significantly underestimated. It might have been eased by an Australian style control on departures, but also by more capacity too...
no doubt it caught them by surprise, but a lot of time has passed now to adjust to that. Same goes for Australia where we have $40k aussies wanting to come home but can't, and our own swather of international students wanting to come and learn. It just doesn't strike me as the hardest problem to solve if the desire was there - load them up on a couple of A380's, get them straight on an empty cruise ship or send them into a scout jamboree site in the bush - after that they're here for a year with no desire to leave, sending thousands of $?
@donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
You've lived through it more than most, so I still wonder if it's your fault
Probably right
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@dogmeat I'd also be fine with govt debt IF it was spent on infrastructure. As has been noted, $50bn isn't a big number relative to GDP and global levels, though $200bn is getting up there. I just think a good chunk of this rise is wasteful and self-inflicted
I don't think ScoMo has done too badly through this. He has tried to find the balance between health and economy, and has the constant ongoing battle with dealing with State premiers who have very different agendas
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
What happens with international travel isn't for one country to decide.
So this. It is sometimes forgotten in the arguments about what a country should do.
Even now there are some people in NZ who theoretically can return home, but in practice the travel arrangements are a potential house of cards if the trip requires more than one international transit.
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
b. Low unemployment isn't some magical evidence of successful economic planning
True, planners tend to get too much credit or blame for the (un)employment figures. It's just the economic metric I'm most strongly biased toward, given my career to date.
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It would appear that the KFC worker was following instructions as listed on the ministry's own unite against covid19 site.
Untidy