North Korea



  • I'm not about to start a detailed analysis of the geopolitical implications of the US v NK stand off but I saw this headline and got a flashback to Comical Ali...

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  • @booboo I'm going to hell for reading that as luthlessly ravage aren't I?



  • Wonder if shit is about to go down? NK are scared.



  • @jegga said in North Korea:

    @booboo I'm going to hell for reading that as luthlessly ravage aren't I?

    WOOTHWESSWY WAVAGE!

    alt text



  • There were reports that 150,000 Chinese troops were massing on the NK border but nothing official yet - not that the Pentagon is in the habit of reporting on foreign troops movements.

    Even if they were, you'd have to wonder which of the following options they'd take:

    • Assist NK with American Aggression
    • Assist NK with North Korean stupidity

    The rumour is that Xi is getting a bit tired of NK's escalated idiocy since the new fat kid came along. He has some internal divisions to fight at home but a bit of cosying up to The West by getting rid of Fatty Jong-Un might help take a bit of pressure of their South China Sea ambitions.



  • @Frank said in North Korea:

    Wonder if shit is about to go down? NK are scared.

    But not as scared as South Korea I imagine.



  • lots of tough talking going on....



  • Part of me wants this to kick off to see exactly what muscle NK actually does have - I can't for the life me believe that the NK military would have anything to take on the seppo's. The bigger worry though is obviously what China would do in such a situation.



  • @MajorRage said in North Korea:

    Part of me wants this to kick off to see exactly what muscle NK actually does have

    Haha. Squeeze a tiger's testicles. He might not have any teeth, but quite a game finding out.

    As you say, his neighbour has teeth and claws, and he might not like the noise next door...



  • yeah thats the thing, China supposedly the broker in the middle with a fair bit of sway...

    BUt geez those military parades are an awesome spectacle!



  • I'm more curious than worried about China.

    China isn't as happy with NK as it used to be. They've already got nuclear powers in South Asia to contend with, so they don't want another one, particularly in a regime with knife-edge stability.

    They've always been happy for NK to be the barking mad communist puppy, while they positioned themselves as the silent wolf.

    BUT a few things have changed in their domestic situation, most notably their rampant economy which then underwent growing pains. They've had a taste of the money and now they understand the access and control with the world economy.

    Combine this reduction in isolationism with an uplift in the very same thing in Trump's list of promises. China sees US withdrawal from climate change measures as a massive opportunity to drive forward its own green power plans, including nuclear and renewables expertise. It can sell these to the rest of the world and stimulate itself as the Big Tech economy rather than just being resource-reliant.

    An ambitious space program and a desire to take over leadership of the Pacific Rim from a slovenly US is entirely possible.

    So the question becomes: would they bother to intervene on NK's behalf? Or, just perhaps, would they intervene on behalf of the US?



  • The problem is more or less Seoul's location. Not at all far from the border with the North. Any war of any sort will mean massive civilian casualties for the South.

    Not sure how having NK there benefits China. No NK would mean fewer US troops in East Asia for a start.



  • China likes the existence of North Korea because it provides a geographical buffer with the West (USA).

    Any missile attack would target South Korea and Japan, perhaps US bases like Guam.



  • I doubt the US would be doing this without China's blessing. Seems they've finally had enough, which is ironic considering they're pretty much the reason the regime survived the Korean War and has lasted this long.

    It would be interesting to know what the average South Korean feels about potential reunification. The Germans struggled enough, but East Germany was a farking Ferrari compared to the broken Trabant that is North Korea. How do you reunify when one of the countries has been stuck in a time warp for about 50 years? Very sad situation.



  • @Rancid-Schnitzel said in North Korea:

    I doubt the US would be doing this without China's blessing. Seems they've finally had enough, which is ironic considering they're pretty much the reason the regime survived the Korean War and has lasted this long.

    It would be interesting to know what the average South Korean feels about potential reunification. The Germans struggled enough, but East Germany was a farking Ferrari compared to the broken Trabant that is North Korea. How do you reunify when one of the countries has been stuck in a time warp for about 50 years? Very sad situation.

    I don't think the timing of the Chinese premier's visit to Washington and this standoff is a coincidence. Certainly I don't expect China was unaware, they are an economic powerhouse now, and NK is bad for business



  • @canefan war is bad for business, plus costs alot of money.

    Also reports of 150,000 Chinese troops on the NK Border supposedly to deal with refugees that may leave en masse.



  • @canefan said in North Korea:

    Certainly I don't expect China was unaware, they are an economic powerhouse now, and NK is bad for business

    NK is China's ace card tho'. a few months back - and right thru the election China was, apparently, going to be on the receiving end of a yuge trade war, santions, you name it. Then once in office the briefing goes "so this is NK" and now China is awesome. China has zero incentive to fully disarm NK, it gives them huge leverage, its very, very good for business.

    @Rugger-Quizzes said in North Korea:

    Not sure how having NK there benefits China. No NK would mean fewer US troops in East Asia for a start.

    By that logic no hostile Japan after WW2 means no US bases in Phillipines, Japan, Korea etc. NK goes down China is fully aware that a unified Korea is pro US & just a bigger base right on their doorstep. Take a look at US bases in Asia pre WW2, then post WW2, Same in Middle East pre gulf war / post gulf war, Africa pre Somalia / post Somalia. The US does not scale back after entering a region.



  • @gollum said in North Korea:

    NK goes down China is fully aware that a unified Korea is pro US & just a bigger base right on their doorstep. Take a look at US bases in Asia pre WW2, then post WW2, Same in Middle East pre gulf war / post gulf war, Africa pre Somalia / post Somalia. The US does not scale back after entering a region.

    Which is kind of dumb because the Yanks can park all the tanks they want across the Yalu from Manchuria - its a big fucking place compared to NK.

    Better off keeping things at the 38th parallel. Sure the NK regime could shell Seoul right now, but there are some big fucking hills in the way.

    I read at series my brother picked up (http://www.ian-slater.com/bibliography.php) which did some interesting things in terms of conflict.



  • By the sounds of it there's some positive diplomacy going on between the US and China.

    Which isn't surprising because this relationship is going to be critical on several fronts beyond the current NK issue. There's some major economic issues that China will want Trump to stick to his word on.



  • @ACT-Crusader said in North Korea:

    By the sounds of it there's some positive diplomacy going on between the US and China.

    Which isn't surprising because this relationship is going to be critical on several fronts beyond the current NK issue. There's some major economic issues that China will want Trump to stick to his word on.

    Depends who the word was given to. They actually want him to fully go back on his word in every single trade area that he got elected on.

    That's already looking good, he pledged to denounce China as a currency manipulator, that got tossed a week ago etc.. Now he needs to roll on everything else too. But this is why they (the Chinese) have no interest in fully "solving" the issue. You solve NK, Trump can immediately go back to his election plays & go "I was playing China!".

    China has huge leverage here, the US desperately need something to happen other than full on war. War would be a terrible result, and for Trump - the position he's in now, nothing happening would be a terrible result too. So the Chinese just have to offer something - even just a freeze on the nukes overseen by China with zero other changes & they can ask for literally anything they want. They don't even have to engineer a coup.

    Hell, they could even try get the US to throw the whole South China Sea issue under the bus. That feels like a stretch, but its probably on the table.


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