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I think putting the election result down to a single issue is a bit silly. As is the idea that Morrison swept to power and Shorten was soundly rejected by the electorate.
The margin in this election was still relatively fine. Morrison has a very slim majority. And I'd argue that Labor actually lost this election in northern Tasmania and Victoria. Queensland was always going to be a shit show for them (although nobody thought it would be bad enough to lose Longman and be in trouble in Lilley).
What was interesting was the seats that Labor should have held/picked up down south - losing Bass and Braddon, and failing to win Chisolm, La Trobe, and pick up a slightly safer Lib seat like Flinders or Deakin. A difference of just five seats takes Morrison back to 73, and Labor up to 72 where they stand a realistic shot at forming power.
It's easy enough to look at Queensland and bring it back to mining, climate, tax etc. But Victoria? This is the state that elected Dan Andrews in a landslide. Climate was clearly an issue on the agenda, and yet the Liberals held seats they were predicted to lose.
I don't think there is one answer as to why that happened, but I think taxation and the economy was higher on the list than climate in driving Victorian votes, and probably northern Tassie too.
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@barbarian said in Aussie Politics:
I think putting the election result down to a single issue is a bit silly. As is the idea that Morrison swept to power and Shorten was soundly rejected by the electorate.
The margin in this election was still relatively fine. Morrison has a very slim majority. And I'd argue that Labor actually lost this election in northern Tasmania and Victoria. Queensland was always going to be a shit show for them (although nobody thought it would be bad enough to lose Longman and be in trouble in Lilley).
What was interesting was the seats that Labor should have held/picked up down south - losing Bass and Braddon, and failing to win Chisolm, La Trobe, and pick up a slightly safer Lib seat like Flinders or Deakin. A difference of just five seats takes Morrison back to 73, and Labor up to 72 where they stand a realistic shot at forming power.
It's easy enough to look at Queensland and bring it back to mining, climate, tax etc. But Victoria? This is the state that elected Dan Andrews in a landslide. Climate was clearly an issue on the agenda, and yet the Liberals held seats they were predicted to lose.
I don't think there is one answer as to why that happened, but I think taxation and the economy was higher on the list than climate in driving Victorian votes, and probably northern Tassie too.
But was Andrews elected because of climate or because a shit load is being done in Victoria at the moment? For all his faults my understanding is that he has kicked off a heap of projects and the wheels are turning nicely. Cranes and construction everywhere are always a good look. Makes people think that things are getting accomplished.
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@Rancid-Schnitzel said in Aussie Politics:
But was Andrews elected because of climate or because a shit load is being done in Victoria at the moment? For all his faults my understanding is that he has kicked off a heap of projects and the wheels are turning nicely. Cranes and construction everywhere are always a good look. Makes people think that things are getting accomplished.
Oh of course there were a lot of factors at play there too. But Andrews, I'd wager, is the most left-wing leader in this country by a margin. He's very vocal in his views on climate, LGBT rights, etc.
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Additionally: Andrews survived a period in which a coal shutdown happened at Hazelwood, and it wasn't exactly a just transition (5 months). According to Victorians I know, the bloke leading the other side was seen as a bit of a fluffybunny, as well as the infighting in State Lib ranks.
@barbarian said in Aussie Politics:
nobody thought it would be bad enough to lose Longman
They only held it by 0.8% after a 7.7% swing to ALP last time.
@barbarian said in Aussie Politics:
The margin in this election was still relatively fine.
81.5% counted at this point with totals as:
Coalition: 5,291,757
Labor: 4,255,694
Greens: 1,248,527
Others: 1,862,323 (I think)
Informal: 724,708
TOTAL: 13,383,009That's a fair whack of informals.
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@NTA said in Aussie Politics:
Coalition: 5,291,757
Labor: 4,255,694
Greens: 1,248,527WTF is wrong with people? I wonder how many of those are protest votes vs those who are spastics.
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@barbarian said in Aussie Politics:
@Rancid-Schnitzel said in Aussie Politics:
But was Andrews elected because of climate or because a shit load is being done in Victoria at the moment? For all his faults my understanding is that he has kicked off a heap of projects and the wheels are turning nicely. Cranes and construction everywhere are always a good look. Makes people think that things are getting accomplished.
Oh of course there were a lot of factors at play there too. But Andrews, I'd wager, is the most left-wing leader in this country by a margin. He's very vocal in his views on climate, LGBT rights, etc.
For sure, but Victoria is pretty left-wing isn't it? Actually while Labor obviously have a Qld problem, the Libs appear to have a Victoria problem. Not much blue there.
As an aside it was great to see Julia Banks humiliated. Would be difficult to find a more self entitled cry-baby in politics. Awesome captain's pick there Malcolm.
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@Rancid-Schnitzel said in Aussie Politics:
For sure, but Victoria is pretty left-wing isn't it?
Yeah I suppose that's my point in a way, trying to counter the idea that Labor were killed by their approach to climate change.
If that was the central election issue, I would have expected a much better result for them in Victoria than what they achieved, given the way that state generally leans.
The fact they didn't swing wildly to Labor illustrates to me that economic factors may have been more prominent there.
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When you're an attention seeking fluffybunny drowning in self pity and hyperbole
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@antipodean it's extremely doubtful there were any blokes that would have happily had a beer with an insufferable twat like that anyway so I don't think his life is going to change much.
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@antipodean said in Aussie Politics:
When you're an attention seeking fluffybunny drowning in self pity and hyperbole
How pathetic.
A relative of mine sent out a Facebook message about cheap plants for sale that started with "I know we're all still reeling from the result of the election".
She works for the ABC btw.
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@rotated said in Aussie Politics:
@booboo said in Aussie Politics:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Aussie Politics:
Climate hysteria cost Labor this election.
Amongst other hysteria. Don't think it was just climate.
I disagree, it was an issue that sucked a lot of resources and oxygen from both major parties, UAP and Get Up and that is hard to account for but electorally it ended in a stalemate.
The clearest path for victory for Labor was in the outer suburban and smaller city seats: Bass, Macquarie, Chisolm etc needed to go the way of Dunkley and Braddon. Their inability to move them was purely economic policy and Shorten IMO.
If Labor's policy was to open five new coal plants by Christmas they may have picked up two seats in Queensland and lost five senate seats to the Greens across the country.
Just on some of those seats:
Dunkley - the 2018 redistribution made that seat notionally Labor (like Corangamite), and given it was Victoria you’d be safe to say that the Coalition already banked on it being goneski.
Chisholm - given Banks defection it was already “lost” to the Coalition going into the election. The two major parties ran a middle aged Chinese woman as their candidate. Big Chinese population with Box Hill and Burwood - so it was a genuine fight and as shown by the result a very close run one.
Braddon/Bass - these were clearly targeted as ‘must win’ for the Coalition and given the number of times Morrison went down there and other high profiles, the polling must have been saying something about their reactions to Labor’s agenda.
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Now we've got AFP warrants being executed on a Newscorp journalist and the ABC for stories that occurred some time ago.
Coincidence that this happens after the election? Hard to say, but Morrison and Dutton are claiming they had no knowledge, so the conspiracy theories are running riot.
Concern for freedom of the press being expressed over here.
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@NTA said in Aussie Politics:
Now we've got AFP warrants being executed on a Newscorp journalist and the ABC for stories that occurred some time ago.
Coincidence that this happens after the election? Hard to say, but Morrison and Dutton are claiming they had no knowledge, so the conspiracy theories are running riot.
Concern for freedom of the press being expressed over here.
My understanding is this is long running because the ABC report was based on classified information. They're looking for the source of the leak.
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@antipodean which figures as getting enough evidence together is a painstaking process. EDIT and at this point they're not arresting anyone.
The live tweet from the ABC honcho was interesting.
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Plenty of National Supporters (still) drinking from the same fountain of denial.
Same goes for the anti-Dons and Brexit remainersSign of the times
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Meanwhile the RBA have cut interest rates 50 points in a month, and we now have an official cash rate of 1%
Not looking great out there.
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@mariner4life said in Aussie Politics:
Meanwhile the RBA have cut interest rates 50 points in a month, and we now have an official cash rate of 1%
Not looking great out there.
Increased liquidity from tax cuts eaten by real cash rate.
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@antipodean said in Aussie Politics:
@mariner4life said in Aussie Politics:
Meanwhile the RBA have cut interest rates 50 points in a month, and we now have an official cash rate of 1%
Not looking great out there.
Increased liquidity from tax cuts eaten by real cash rate.
the savings on their mortgage might mean people can pay their electricity and insurance bills.
otherwise they will pay more off their mortgages to safeguard against future pain.
Do the old rules hold true any more?
Aussie Politics