Electric Vehicles
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@voodoo said in Electric Vehicles:
@Kirwan said in Electric Vehicles:
@NTA said in Electric Vehicles:
Goes to the heart of the problem with autonomy in free space: unless everyone has it, nobody is safe.
As opposed to how safe we are now?
Unfortunately, that's irrelevant. Because we are a useless race, AV's will always be measured against perfection rather than looked at as a significant improvement on the status quo.
That's why I'm so bearish on them in Australia, I just can't see them being accepted any time soon when a single accident will set the timeline back so much.
Somewhere like Singapore though, or entire Chinese provinces, absolutely.
They have already had fatalities in the states, doesn't seem to be halting things too much.
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Sample sizes are too small to accurately say whether vehicle autonomy is safer or not.
IMHO the key to autonomy is having vehicles communicate with vehicles - they can do it faster and better than humans. As the video above demonstrates, the only time the guy's software really got into trouble was when a ute cut them off.
If Car A knew Car B was about to do that, Car A would be able to react.
Anyone remember Minority Report where Cruise jumps onto that "car" that was scaling down a building? Seamlessly moving in and around other vehicles. That would be the goal.
But how do you do that without having everything on the same net?
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@NTA said in Electric Vehicles:
Sample sizes are too small to accurately say whether vehicle autonomy is safer or not.
IMHO the key to autonomy is having vehicles communicate with vehicles - they can do it faster and better than humans. As the video above demonstrates, the only time the guy's software really got into trouble was when a ute cut them off.
If Car A knew Car B was about to do that, Car A would be able to react.
Anyone remember Minority Report where Cruise jumps onto that "car" that was scaling down a building? Seamlessly moving in and around other vehicles. That would be the goal.
But how do you do that without having everything on the same net?
Sensors on the car and predictive algorithms. Or maybe a mesh local network?
I’d prefer the first option, at least to start. They showed how the software tracks pedestrians and cyclists to try and anticipate unusual paths, it’s pretty amazing.
At the very least, these cars will stop eons before a human driver when something goes wrong.
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@Kirwan did you see that footage of a Tesla that stopped because the car in front of the truck it was following stopped? Crazy.
Local mesh would be preferable. Saw an article from Microsoft - well it was more of a sales pitch - quoting between 20 and 100TB of data per day for autonomous vehicles "so hey why not use Azure?"
I think there will be a shitload of data BUT there needs to be some kind of rational debate on what is temporary and what is valuable as a long-term prospect. Temporary traffic issues are useful if they're added to a hierarchy as some form of summary data e.g. Date + Duration + Location for predictive analytics of macro traffic.
But every individual point from every individual car? Hmmm... limited value for some of it. Instantaneous in some cases.
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As an aside on data: I'm working in a team that is pulling over 3 million data points a day from IoT across ~900 sites, and people in the industry (facilities management) are losing their fucking minds over the quantity of points, but it really is only dozens of MB per day.
Estimates I've seen of Tesla cars is 40-70MB per day per car. It used to be over 150MB so I think they versioned in order to trim what they no longer needed after the first X million miles of driving.
Need a fairly capable Time Series DB to handle that, and a shitload of capability to wash it out the other side to be useful.
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@NTA yes, I think laws will (rightly) ensure that electric cars have to keep full logs of every decison they have made, so those numbers above are going to get massive very very quickly.
In my previous job, we talked a lot about self-driving cars. Apparently they had around 10 million lines of code then, and that was increasing all the time.
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How about this at the price point?
https://www.citroen.co.nz/citroen-universe/concept-car/ami-one-concept/
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@dogmeat said in Electric Vehicles:
So cars have to talk to other cars? Yeah I can see that working coz manufacturers have a fantastic record of working together to create uniform platforms. Sharing IP no problem at all. Or will it be a case of dummkopf auto nien sprechen sie Audi
Thats a legislative issue, not a technology one. Billions of devices connect over the internet because there are standards about how to communicate.
In order to get a "license" to be on the road you have to use xyz standard to communicate.
Tesla or Google will probably design it, and Tesla already open source their patents and Google are pretty good on that front as well. Hell, even Microsoft open source software these days.
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@antipodean yeah I've seen the feedback from a few pundits on the software in the VW EVs and they say its crap
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@antipodean said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@mariner4life said in Investing - Property/Shares:
Can someone explain to me how suddenly Tesla is worth more than every other car company combined?
FOMO. There's literally no other reason for the stock price.
Anyone thinking their battery technology is worth such a ridiculous valuation is ignoring that most of the IP is actually owned by their partners and smaller university backed companies are doing more interesting, ground breaking things.
The EPS of the stock is ludicrous. It's like muppets think Tesla is going to dominate the automobile industry. Now that all the other real manufacturers are stepping into the EV market, Tesla will remain a niche for people who don't know what quality is.
Probably a bet on the self driving aspect of Tesla. Whoever cracks that technology first is going dominate what driving in the future looks like.
Particularly as they aren't using a lidar based system, and their competitors are.
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@Kirwan said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@antipodean said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@mariner4life said in Investing - Property/Shares:
Can someone explain to me how suddenly Tesla is worth more than every other car company combined?
FOMO. There's literally no other reason for the stock price.
Anyone thinking their battery technology is worth such a ridiculous valuation is ignoring that most of the IP is actually owned by their partners and smaller university backed companies are doing more interesting, ground breaking things.
The EPS of the stock is ludicrous. It's like muppets think Tesla is going to dominate the automobile industry. Now that all the other real manufacturers are stepping into the EV market, Tesla will remain a niche for people who don't know what quality is.
Probably a bet on the self driving aspect of Tesla. Whoever cracks that technology first is going dominate what driving in the future looks like.
Particularly as they aren't using a lidar based system, and their competitors are.
I'm pretty bearish on AVs in Australia, probably NZ also. Somewhere like Singapore maybe will be first.
But here in Oz in particular, everyone wants to drive, and everyone thinks they're really good at it. And red tape and beaurocracy will ensure that we continue to measure AV safety against perfection rather than the miserable drivers that humans actually are.
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@Kirwan said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@antipodean said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@mariner4life said in Investing - Property/Shares:
Can someone explain to me how suddenly Tesla is worth more than every other car company combined?
FOMO. There's literally no other reason for the stock price.
Anyone thinking their battery technology is worth such a ridiculous valuation is ignoring that most of the IP is actually owned by their partners and smaller university backed companies are doing more interesting, ground breaking things.
The EPS of the stock is ludicrous. It's like muppets think Tesla is going to dominate the automobile industry. Now that all the other real manufacturers are stepping into the EV market, Tesla will remain a niche for people who don't know what quality is.
Probably a bet on the self driving aspect of Tesla. Whoever cracks that technology first is going dominate what driving in the future looks like.
Particularly as they aren't using a lidar based system, and their competitors are.
My SUV will drive itself so long as you keep touching the steering wheel every 30 seconds to remind it you're still there. It's useless. It depends on monitoring your position on the road using cameras so it's looking for a clear white line on the offside and a centre line on the right. It's common not to have a left hand side line at all and any time there's a missing centerline the car drifts you across to the other side where it then uses its radar to detect the car it has now put you in the way of. The last thing you hear before you die is the truly excellent warning systems telling you it's all gone tits up.
Steering wheels. They're worth using.
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@voodoo said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@Kirwan said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@antipodean said in Investing - Property/Shares:
@mariner4life said in Investing - Property/Shares:
Can someone explain to me how suddenly Tesla is worth more than every other car company combined?
FOMO. There's literally no other reason for the stock price.
Anyone thinking their battery technology is worth such a ridiculous valuation is ignoring that most of the IP is actually owned by their partners and smaller university backed companies are doing more interesting, ground breaking things.
The EPS of the stock is ludicrous. It's like muppets think Tesla is going to dominate the automobile industry. Now that all the other real manufacturers are stepping into the EV market, Tesla will remain a niche for people who don't know what quality is.
Probably a bet on the self driving aspect of Tesla. Whoever cracks that technology first is going dominate what driving in the future looks like.
Particularly as they aren't using a lidar based system, and their competitors are.
I'm pretty bearish on AVs in Australia, probably NZ also. Somewhere like Singapore maybe will be first.
But here in Oz in particular, everyone wants to drive, and everyone thinks they're really good at it. And red tape and beaurocracy will ensure that we continue to measure AV safety against perfection rather than the miserable drivers that humans actually are.
Agreed. It doesn't need to be perfect, just better. The problem for lawmakers is semi-autonomous driving still kills people and they'll be more than happy to insist on inventing a suitable standard for such systems to comply with.
We're a long, long way off autonomous driving, but anything that limits this sort of fuckwittery is "A Good Thing":
Now given the time to implement a legislative background (which will only come at the behest of lobbying and public groundswell), that's a fair way off. Tesla may well be the obvious and lone candidate for licensing, but that alone won't justify the share price.
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Not sure how far along autonomous Jetsons are, but that could end up being the solution.
What will put AV over the top IMO is cheap passenger transport as a service, whether that's as individual cars going door to door for $5 or busses and trains dropping below $2.