Coronavirus - New Zealand



  • @taniwharugby the main weakness I see in NZ strategy is how to get out of it.

    If the virus is eradicated in NZ that’s excellent. But when do you allow international travel again?

    Don’t get me wrong - I’d rather be in NZ right now than UK, that’s unquestionable. But I just can’t see how the measures can be unwound. I can see NZ closing borders / locking people down in phases for up to 3 - 5 years. We are equally as vulnerable up here, altho I expect if the antibodies tests come available the results will be eye opening.



  • @MajorRage my brother and I are debating this. He trades jet fuel and is betting the bank on a quick resumption of international travel.

    I'm telling him he's deluded.

    Then it gets all brotherly 🙂



  • @JC said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Kirwan @Baron-Silas-Greenback - I see no evidence that the government isn't incredibly concerned about the economy. They're spending billions to support it.

    I’ve tried to stay well away from this but I couldn’t let this go by unchallenged.

    Spending money the way the government is doing is not supporting the economy. It is moving money - that they don’t actually have, by the way - from one part of the economy to another. Every dollar they spend this way is a dollar not spent on something they previously thought was essential. If that was infrastructure, which boosts GDP, then that infrastructure will not now be built.

    The way to repair the economy is to let the economy do what it does, finding the most efficient way to allocate the available resources with the intention of increasing their value. That is something that clearly isn’t happening at the moment, because the majority of participants in the economy are banned from working.

    However good the intentions of the government are, they aren’t supporting the economy as much as running it.

    And this is the bit that really concerns me. One thing politicans have shown (from all parties) is that they shouldn't be running the economy. The farce of them picking what is an essential service underlines that completely.

    I also probably have irrational concerns about leaders that use terms like "comrade" unironically getting a taste of running the economy.



  • @Godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/120890068/coronavirus-one-dead-but-road-toll-down-more-than-16andcounting

    Something else to consider in the death counts - a lower road toll.

    Yeah, articles like this make me feel sick to be honest.



  • @Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/120890068/coronavirus-one-dead-but-road-toll-down-more-than-16andcounting

    Something else to consider in the death counts - a lower road toll.

    Yeah, articles like this make me feel sick to be honest.

    That and cleaner air and all the rest of the dross around "benefits of lockdown" Personally, I want to get out and about again.

    It's a stupid train of thought that the attached article is a benefit. It's not, it's an outcome.



  • @Godder said in Lockdown Check In:

    @booboo apparently GPs have had a massive loss of revenue because alert level 4 means people just aren't going, even though they are allowed to.

    Pharmacies must be in a similar boat too. They have all the costs of being open, but seem to have little foot traffic from one that I've spoken with.



  • @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/120890068/coronavirus-one-dead-but-road-toll-down-more-than-16andcounting

    Something else to consider in the death counts - a lower road toll.

    Yeah, articles like this make me feel sick to be honest.

    It's a stupid train of thought that the attached article is a benefit. It's not, it's an outcome.

    oooh I like it. Well done Mr Hooroo, dont get used to my compliments on your opinions though......



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/120890068/coronavirus-one-dead-but-road-toll-down-more-than-16andcounting

    Something else to consider in the death counts - a lower road toll.

    Yeah, articles like this make me feel sick to be honest.

    It's a stupid train of thought that the attached article is a benefit. It's not, it's an outcome.

    oooh I like it. Well done Mr Hooroo, dont get used to my compliments on your opinions though......

    I won't. This is internet 🙂

    I honestly feel I can detach myself from the political side of this and just look at it as a decision making exercise by a human(s)

    So far, I'm happy enough, without the benefit of hindsight, that for the most, the right decisions for this country have been made.

    I am under no illusion though that things are going to get very tough and consequences will be extreme.



  • "road safety campaigner Clive Matthew-Wilson" needs to do something about those mutton chops before he has his picture published again



  • @Godder said in Lockdown Check In:

    @booboo apparently GPs have had a massive loss of revenue because alert level 4 means people just aren't going, even though they are allowed to.

    Our clinic is suffering this at the moment. The doctors have noticed a severe drop off in traffic because people think they will be swamped with covid19. Actually a good time (if there ever is one) to get non-covid unwell and head to your GMP or A&E



  • @Donsteppa I have a client that has 3 pharmacies, I know thier main one is busy AF, unsure about the other 2, but expect they will be pretty busy too...thier main one is next to a busy COuntdown too, so that probably helps



  • Akl Council's list of immediate infrastructure projects for govt funding:

    •Developing a rapid transit system to the North West
    •Funding light rail from the City Centre to Mt Roskill and Māngere
    •A fourth main trunk rail line constructed at the same time as the third to save costs
    •Increasing NZTA funding proportions for projects such as the Matakana Link Road, which could start immediately, and the second and third stages of the Eastern Busway to Botany
    •Sped up construction of cycleways which could start immediately
    •Bringing forward roading renewals currently at the back of the 10-year Auckland Transport Alignment Project (ATAP)
    •Creating a charging network and bus depots to accelerate electrification of the city’s bus fleet
    •Funding local roads in new housing developments such as Drury
    •Building infrastructure to allow intensive residential and commercial precincts around the new City Rail Link stations at Mt Eden, Karangahape Rd and Aotea Centre
    •Funding underground fresh, waste and stormwater infrastructure in regeneration programmes such as Tāmaki, and new developments such as the Unitec site
    •Bringing forward separation of wastewater from stormwater to clean up Auckland’s harbours
    •Cultural and community amenities such as building a Pasifika and Māori cultural centre at Manukau, Te Papa North.

    There are still places in Akl where you can see the concrete roads laid down during the 30's Depression. My grandfather worked on Great North Road. He was an unemployed teacher.



  • @Godder said in Lockdown Check In:

    @booboo apparently GPs have had a massive loss of revenue because alert level 4 means people just aren't going, even though they are allowed to.

    I get that. Have to make appt with Doc to review routine blood tests, and not too keen to sit in waiting room ...



  • GP's and Pharmacies have been given 15mill each (last week) with more to come



  • @dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @JC The money they are spending now is new borrowing so it hasn't taken money away from any other area of spending.

    they have also borrowed for the recovery which will see additional infrastructure spending

    Finally if people lose jobs and companies go under the economy contracts. The government has taken steps to mitigate both those scenarios. That's supporting the economy surely. But yeah they are running the economy in a way we haven't seen since the early 80's. Hopefully they aren't ruining it as much as Muldoon did.

    The money they are spending now is also through quantitative easing. QE is like a stock split in a company - the company is the same, with the same revenues and assets, but instead of 1m x $10 shares you now have 2m x $5 shares. QE devalues the worth of each unit of productivity in the economy, exactly like inflation does.

    The idea that borrowing is a way out of this is something I'm sceptical about. Even at low interest rates the principal has to be repaid. The net core debt currently stands at $60bn, about 20% of GDP. That's pre-recession GDP, by the way. The already announced debt expansion is $25bn, and the consensus GDP contraction for this year is 10%. So we can expect net core debt to rise to 30% of GDP by year end at a minimum. If the debt growth is $60bn, which has been touted, that will equate to 43% of GDP. Then the doom-mongers estimates of %50 don't seem so fantastic. I don't know how the government intends to repay that using tax revenues from a temporarily crippled economy. But hey, I'm sure Grant and Cindy have economics expertise that outweighs mine.

    Finally if people lose jobs and companies go under the economy contracts. The government has taken steps to mitigate both those scenarios. That's supporting the economy surely.

    This is an interesting point. Some, @Baron-Silas-Greenback for example, would no doubt argue that mitigating the scenario is the least they could do given that they are the ones dictating the conditions that lead to the job losses. You're right, the economy contracts under those circumstances. But it's legitimate to ask if it was necessary in the first place. And it's not sustainable.



  • @JC this may seem a dumb question, but who are the 'borrowing' from?

    Given most Govts. are doing this to try to keep their economies heads above water, they cant all be borrowing from a single entity, is it just a big money go round or is 'borrowing' just making more money?



  • @dogmeat said in Lockdown Check In:

    GP's and Pharmacies have been given 15mill each (last week) with more to come

    So the govt is picking more winners and losers..... work at a pharmacy = winner, work at a butchers = loser.



  • The RBNZ issues Treasury Bonds. Effectively they are promises to repay the face value plus a specified interest amount (called the coupon) at a future specified date. These are tradable in the open market. They are issued by tender, and there is a register of tender counterparties who are allowed to bid. These institutions then sell them on into the retail market.

    Edit: If you have a Kiwisaver account your provider may have some of your portfolio made up of Treasury Bonds. They have lowish returns (especially now) but are considered low risk.



  • @JC nah I think my KS is made up of all the companies losing value worldwide 😞 😉



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback Are you trying to be deliberately obtuse or contrary? If so congratulations.

    Work in an essential industry with no alternative options or work in a non essential industry with options.



  • @taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @JC nah I think my KS is made up of all the companies losing value worldwide 😞 😉

    I prefer not to look at my KS. I'm not going to need it for some time anyway



  • @dogmeat said in Lockdown Check In:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback Are you trying to be deliberately obtuse or contrary? If so congratulations.

    Work in an essential industry with no alternative options or work in a non essential industry with options.

    Are you posing a false dichotomy to prop your weak argument or just being stupid? If so congratulations.



  • @canefan yeah I last looked in late Feb I think, and had lost a wedge, so stopped looking...



  • Leaders of big business that will benefit from a lock down killing off small business competitors n NZ support a lockdown.... shocked.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120912415/coronavirus-how-tindall-morgan-and-fyfe-worked-to-ready-country-for-covid19-fight



  • @JC I don't disagree with anything that you've written which is why I made the point that NZ is in the fortunate position of having had two decades of careful Finance Ministers and had by world standards low govt debt going into the pandemic.

    Don't get me wrong I do think this is going to be very difficult both individually (for all but a few) and collectively, but the 30's demonstrated the folly of cutting costs in times like these.

    In terms of the govt dictating the circumstances that led to the job losses does anyone really think we should have left the borders open and even if we had would tourists have still been coming?

    In terms of the broader impacts - large tranches of the economy should gear up again reasonably well. Countries will still need to buy our food, construction will get a stimulus, but I think the point being missed is that if we had sustained and high death rates a lot of companies wouldn't have suvived that scenario either.

    There's a lot of criticism of actions that the govt has taken, and, despite the view of others I have been no big fan of this govt, however I have yet to see a single alternative option put forward that couldn't be distilled down to leave everything open - we will be OK.

    2nd time today my clumsy fingers have completely changed the meaning of what I meant to type. Apologies @JC



  • @dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @JC I don't agree with anything that you've written which is why I made the point that NZ is in the fortunate position of having had two decades of careful Finance Ministers and had by world standards low govt debt going into the pandemic.

    Don't get me wrong I do think this is going to be very difficult both individually (for all but a few) and collectively, but the 30's demonstrated the folly of cutting costs in times like these.

    In terms of the govt dictating the circumstances that led to the job losses does anyone really think we should have left the borders open and even if we had would tourists have still been coming?

    In terms of the broader impacts - large tranches of the economy should gear up again reasonably well. Countries will still need to buy our food, construction will get a stimulus, but I think the point being missed is that if we had sustained and high death rates a lot of companies wouldn't have suvived that scenario either.

    There's a lot of criticism of actions that the govt has taken, and, despite the view of others I have been no big fan of this govt, however I have yet to see a single alternative option put forward that couldn't be distilled down to leave everything open - we will be OK.

    Close the borders, All visitors go into a govt controlled quarantine for 14 days. Enforced a lockdown on over 65s and vulnerable people, massive aid package to ramp up support for these people around home deliveries and mental health.
    Leave schools and all businesses open, with hospitality restricted to keep strict logs of all visitor's. Subsidise local tourism ventures whilst also giving aid package to market them to locals



  • The issue is a government choosing what is essential.



  • @Kirwan who should decide if not government?



  • @Kirwan the baron gave an example. Which IMO was ridiculous.

    As soon as you are in a situation where there is a complete lockdown except for essential services then you have to define "essential". It's the govts role to do this. They explained their rationale behind excluding butchers and greengrocers etc. You don't have to accept it but there was a degree of thought behind it.

    Personally I think the govt has allowed too many companies to push the envelope. If we have to have a lockdown I'd prefer it to be short and brutal so that we maximise the opportunity to return to some sort of normality as quickly as possible.

    Of course many would not have enforced the lockdown



  • Wow just 29 cases today, it’s working isn’t it?



  • @Virgil said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Wow just 29 cases today, it’s working isn’t it?

    Let's keep it up and get the fark on with life on the other side asap



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    All visitors go into a govt controlled quarantine for 14 days.

    this is what is happening from midnight tonight, which should have happend when the rest of NZ went into lockdown.



  • @canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Virgil said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Wow just 29 cases today, it’s working isn’t it?

    Let's keep it up and get the fark on with life on the other side asap

    Yup! 2 more weeks of this and we maybe in a place to start the recovery.



  • Expect schools to stay closed given this big rollout of devices, modems and education programs



  • @Virgil said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Expect schools to stay closed given this big rollout of devices, modems and education programs

    My sister's kids in Melbourne have had their schools closed for all of term 2 with little warning. I hope we don't follow suit



  • @taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    All visitors go into a govt controlled quarantine for 14 days.

    this is what is happening from midnight tonight, which should have happend when the rest of NZ went into lockdown.

    Better late than never. It's no time to stuff that up



  • @canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Godder said in Lockdown Check In:

    @booboo apparently GPs have had a massive loss of revenue because alert level 4 means people just aren't going, even though they are allowed to.

    Our clinic is suffering this at the moment. The doctors have noticed a severe drop off in traffic because people think they will be swamped with covid19. Actually a good time (if there ever is one) to get non-covid unwell and head to your GMP or A&E

    i had to go to the Doc this week, and i have never, ever seen the practice that empty.



  • @mariner4life chafing?



  • @canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Virgil said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Expect schools to stay closed given this big rollout of devices, modems and education programs

    My sister's kids in Melbourne have had their schools closed for all of term 2 with little warning. I hope we don't follow suit

    They announced yesterday that they're doing the same in the ACT. Meanwhile the government is now providing free daycare. Someone explain to me the thought process behind that without pointing out the teacher's union is a cancer on society.



  • @antipodean said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Virgil said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Expect schools to stay closed given this big rollout of devices, modems and education programs

    My sister's kids in Melbourne have had their schools closed for all of term 2 with little warning. I hope we don't follow suit

    They announced yesterday that they're doing the same in the ACT. Meanwhile the government is now providing free daycare.

    That makes no sense! Free day care for all? Or just for those kids of essential workers?


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