Covid Economics



  • Interesting short interview with Leland Miller, CEO of China Beige Book, talking about how much China's economy can recover this year.

    https://podbay.fm/podcast/326301337/e/1588610160

    Some background:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-re-opening-has-been-rocky-the-party-line-may-start-to-change-this-analyst-says-2020-04-29

    Because it’s more targeted than the firm’s regular surveys, this special supplement aims to show “how corporate China is handling the aftermath of the virus,” China Beige Book CEO Leland Miller said in an interview. “The answer is, not well.”

    The good news is that almost all — 91% — of the more than 500 Chinese companies surveyed had reopened by late April, and about three-quarters were working on-site again, but just 42% were able to operate at more than half their capacity.

    Worse, demand for goods and services from Chinese companies has plummeted. Foreign orders have fallen more than twice as fast as domestic ones, with orders from the U.S. contracting the most among China’s major trading partners.

    Crucially, 81% of executives at surveyed companies said they’re worried about a resurgence of the coronavirus in the next three months. And 69% say April’s tepid pace of economic activity may be “as good as it gets” for the next several months.

    The responses to this survey suggest the economy is likely still contracting, Miller told MarketWatch. Yet the Chinese government has not yet admitted that they’re not likely to hit their 6% GDP growth target for 2020, even though “mathematically that cannot be reached in any scenario,” Miller believes.

    BTW, anyone know if China Beige Book has a good track record on forecasting?



  • Speaking of track records in forecasting...

    Data released by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission shows retail trading increased as a proportion of the overall market between February 2020 and April 3, compared to the six months prior.

    Significantly, ASIC noted during the period there was a sharp increase in the daily number of unique client identifiers - associated with new retail accounts.

    An average of 4,675 new identifiers appeared per day in the focus period, compared to 1,369 new identifiers per day in the previous period. In total, this brought in 140,241 identifiers the regulator had previously not seen in its trade surveillance data.

    Retail brokers were net buyers of securities over the focus period, buying $53.4 billion and selling $48.4 billion.

    Leveraged contract for difference (CFD) products also increased. In the week March 16 until March 22, retail client losses were just over $428 million gross or $234 million net, the regulator has estimated based on data from 12 CFD providers.

    "Retail investors chasing quick profits by playing the market over the short term have traditionally performed poorly – in good times and bad - even in relatively stable, less volatile market conditions," the regulator said.

    The average time between trades by the same investor has decreased from 2.5 days to less than one day. ASIC

    "The analysis suggested few pursuing quick windfalls were successful. During the focus period, on more than two thirds of the days on which retail investors were net buyers, their share prices declined the following day.

    "On days where retail investors were net sellers, their share prices more likely increased the next day."

    https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/retail-investors-hunt-risk-in-rush-to-trade-asic-20200506-p54q9t



  • what's ecomomics got to do with Covid



  • @dogmeat said in Covid Ecomomics:

    what's ecomomics got to do with Covid

    it's american spelling



  • @dogmeat said in Covid Ecomomics:

    what's ecomomics got to do with Covid

    alt text



  • This is going to be the new fun thread, I can tell...



  • What was that I vaguely remember? The TPP or something?



  • @Tim said in Covid Economics:

    What was that I vaguely remember? The TPP or something?

    Oh but that was crap because they didn't organize it!!!!



  • Vietnam has come a long way!

    One danger with that approach is patents and copyright, particularly the impact on Pharmac, but if we can carve out something for that, this would be big for NZ.



  • @Godder I think you may be right. The last thing the US wants is a level playing field.



  • @antipodean said in Covid Economics:

    Speaking of track records in forecasting...

    Data released by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission shows retail trading increased as a proportion of the overall market between February 2020 and April 3, compared to the six months prior.

    Significantly, ASIC noted during the period there was a sharp increase in the daily number of unique client identifiers - associated with new retail accounts.

    An average of 4,675 new identifiers appeared per day in the focus period, compared to 1,369 new identifiers per day in the previous period. In total, this brought in 140,241 identifiers the regulator had previously not seen in its trade surveillance data.

    Retail brokers were net buyers of securities over the focus period, buying $53.4 billion and selling $48.4 billion.

    Leveraged contract for difference (CFD) products also increased. In the week March 16 until March 22, retail client losses were just over $428 million gross or $234 million net, the regulator has estimated based on data from 12 CFD providers.

    "Retail investors chasing quick profits by playing the market over the short term have traditionally performed poorly – in good times and bad - even in relatively stable, less volatile market conditions," the regulator said.

    The average time between trades by the same investor has decreased from 2.5 days to less than one day. ASIC

    "The analysis suggested few pursuing quick windfalls were successful. During the focus period, on more than two thirds of the days on which retail investors were net buyers, their share prices declined the following day.

    "On days where retail investors were net sellers, their share prices more likely increased the next day."

    https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/retail-investors-hunt-risk-in-rush-to-trade-asic-20200506-p54q9t

    From a mate at IRESS, sent to me on 17 March:

    "Fun fact: so far in 2020 we have processed a total of 43% of the entire 2019 stock market volume of trades in the UK and 38% in Australia.

    The bulk of that is in the last 2 weeks ."

    Pretty wild!



  • @voodoo said in Covid Economics:

    @antipodean said in Covid Economics:

    Speaking of track records in forecasting...

    Data released by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission shows retail trading increased as a proportion of the overall market between February 2020 and April 3, compared to the six months prior.

    Significantly, ASIC noted during the period there was a sharp increase in the daily number of unique client identifiers - associated with new retail accounts.

    An average of 4,675 new identifiers appeared per day in the focus period, compared to 1,369 new identifiers per day in the previous period. In total, this brought in 140,241 identifiers the regulator had previously not seen in its trade surveillance data.

    Retail brokers were net buyers of securities over the focus period, buying $53.4 billion and selling $48.4 billion.

    Leveraged contract for difference (CFD) products also increased. In the week March 16 until March 22, retail client losses were just over $428 million gross or $234 million net, the regulator has estimated based on data from 12 CFD providers.

    "Retail investors chasing quick profits by playing the market over the short term have traditionally performed poorly – in good times and bad - even in relatively stable, less volatile market conditions," the regulator said.

    The average time between trades by the same investor has decreased from 2.5 days to less than one day. ASIC

    "The analysis suggested few pursuing quick windfalls were successful. During the focus period, on more than two thirds of the days on which retail investors were net buyers, their share prices declined the following day.

    "On days where retail investors were net sellers, their share prices more likely increased the next day."

    https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/retail-investors-hunt-risk-in-rush-to-trade-asic-20200506-p54q9t

    From a mate at IRESS, sent to me on 17 March:

    "Fun fact: so far in 2020 we have processed a total of 43% of the entire 2019 stock market volume of trades in the UK and 38% in Australia.

    The bulk of that is in the last 2 weeks ."

    Pretty wild!

    Normal to have high volumes of trades in times of extreme volatility if you think about it. Difficult to have high vol without high numbers of trades!



  • @Catogrande yes, there would appear to be some logic in your statement...



  • @voodoo said in Covid Economics:

    @Catogrande yes, there would appear to be some logic in your statement...

    Like a stopped clock...



  • https://www.top.org.nz/universal_basic_income

    A lot of chatter around universal basic income, so that's one version of it, costed for NZ.



  • @Godder I was gonna say ol' Gareth has been banging that drum for years then I saw the link address...


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