Coronavirus - UK
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I’m thinking and hoping a bit of both. I agree that the level of compliance is likely to fall but hope that A) that has been factored in to the thinking and that
the dramatic improvement in the figures is down primarily to the vaccines and this provides us with a way out that is not lockdown dependent. -
I don’t see any big changes to be honest and anticipate a National lockdown sometime in October or early November for the winter
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@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
I don’t see any big changes to be honest and anticipate a National lockdown sometime in October or early November for the winter
That would be nothing other than an unmitigated disaster after the year we've had and the rapid development and supply of vaccines. All for a virus that hardly affects the majority of the population.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - UK:
@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
I don’t see any big changes to be honest and anticipate a National lockdown sometime in October or early November for the winter
That would be nothing other than an unmitigated disaster after the year we've had and the rapid development and supply of vaccines. All for a virus that hardly affects the majority of the population.
Agreed
But that’s what’s being mooted for Wales.
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@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
I don’t see any big changes to be honest and anticipate a National lockdown sometime in October or early November for the winter
I'm not ruling it out and Whitty has said as much that there may well be some restrictions next Winter.
But the politics will make it extremely tough to get this through.
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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
I don’t see any big changes to be honest and anticipate a National lockdown sometime in October or early November for the winter
I'm not ruling it out and Whitty has said as much that there may well be some restrictions next Winter.
But the politics will make it extremely tough to get this through.
Well there’ll be no opposition from Starmer, so that’s one less hurdle
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@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
I don’t see any big changes to be honest and anticipate a National lockdown sometime in October or early November for the winter
I'm not ruling it out and Whitty has said as much that there may well be some restrictions next Winter.
But the politics will make it extremely tough to get this through.
Well there’ll be no opposition from Starmer, so that’s one less hurdle
I saw a great quote on Andrew Neil's page about Starmer's strategy:
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@tewaio said in Coronavirus - UK:
Still locked up until June. What a joke.
Ironically I tested positive for coronavirus a few hours after posting this.
No idea how I caught it, have been working from home since March and seeing hardly anyone as have a young baby. My wife felt a bit unwell so we both got tested, otherwise I wouldn't have bothered. She was negative. I just feel a bit tired - as you'd expect with a baby anyway!
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@tewaio said in Coronavirus - UK:
@tewaio said in Coronavirus - UK:
Still locked up until June. What a joke.
Ironically I tested positive for coronavirus a few hours after posting this.
No idea how I caught it, have been working from home since March and seeing hardly anyone as have a young baby. My wife felt a bit unwell so we both got tested, otherwise I wouldn't have bothered. She was negative. I just feel a bit tired - as you'd expect with a baby anyway!
Hope it blows over without too much fuss mate
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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - UK:
I saw a great quote on Andrew Neil's page about Starmer's strategy:
Starmer has a strategy?
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SAGE modelling which seems to have been behind the super timid unlocking roadmap: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/963400/S1116_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_modelling_on_scenario_for_easing_restrictions.pdf
Spent some time looking at this.
As they note, outputs are 'critically dependent on very uncertain modelled assumptions'.
Key assumptions are denoted Central (conservative) and Pessimistic (absurd). Studies posted elsewhere here by @Victor-Meldrew etc. indicate actual vaccination protection is coming in at better thn the 'Central' assumptions.
Four scenarios. One, in essence unlock now, predictably leads to big resurgence.
Many outputs indicate substantial deaths.
Trouble is that no account taken of strong evidence that vaccination is 99% effective in preventing deaths!
And actual vaccination take up is much higher among Over 70s than assumed.
Also can't seem to find age banded mortality assumptions, which suggests there are none.
SPA-M panel up for the 2021 Neil Ferguson Award!
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@tewaio said in Coronavirus - UK:
@tewaio said in Coronavirus - UK:
Still locked up until June. What a joke.
Ironically I tested positive for coronavirus a few hours after posting this.
No idea how I caught it, have been working from home since March and seeing hardly anyone as have a young baby. My wife felt a bit unwell so we both got tested, otherwise I wouldn't have bothered. She was negative. I just feel a bit tired - as you'd expect with a baby anyway!
Get well soon
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Passports at the ready, but not to leave the country
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@tewaio said in Coronavirus - UK:
@tewaio said in Coronavirus - UK:
Still locked up until June. What a joke.
Ironically I tested positive for coronavirus a few hours after posting this.
No idea how I caught it, have been working from home since March and seeing hardly anyone as have a young baby. My wife felt a bit unwell so we both got tested, otherwise I wouldn't have bothered. She was negative. I just feel a bit tired - as you'd expect with a baby anyway!
Hope your symptoms are mild, which seems likely given you haven't been exposed to the outside world.
Sounds a bit of a mystery how you got it.
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@tewaio Glad you aren't feeling too bad.
Think some of these test results a bit shonky. Very odd that your wife who actually is ill is negative, whilst you positive.
My neighbour had all the symptoms (nailed Covid bingo as he called it) and tested negative as well as negative for the antibodies. He couldn't tell the difference between tea and coffee!
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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@tewaio Glad you aren't feeling too bad.
Think some of these test results a bit shonky. Very odd that your wife who actually is ill is negative, whilst you positive.
My neighbour had all the symptoms (nailed Covid bingo as he called it) and tested negative as well as negative for the antibodies. He couldn't tell the difference between tea and coffee!
Apparently 50% of PCR tests are false positives.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - UK:
Aparently 50% of PCR tests are false positives.
That sounds very wrong. What is the source? I've seen nothing like that.
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@tim said in Coronavirus - UK:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - UK:
Aparently 50% of PCR tests are false positives.
That sounds very wrong. What is the source? I've seen nothing like that.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - UK:
@tim said in Coronavirus - UK:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - UK:
Aparently 50% of PCR tests are false positives.
That sounds very wrong. What is the source? I've seen nothing like that.
I read that as saying that evidence of Covid is detected but the virus is no longer viable. There only “false” in the sense of transmission ability.
Still a concern considering that this is the test being relied on for travel.
We have urged my son and his partner to test well before the required flight test so that they have time to get cleared should unknown positive results show. -
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@tewaio Glad you aren't feeling too bad.
Think some of these test results a bit shonky. Very odd that your wife who actually is ill is negative, whilst you positive.
My neighbour had all the symptoms (nailed Covid bingo as he called it) and tested negative as well as negative for the antibodies. He couldn't tell the difference between tea and coffee!
Bit of an update, my wife tested negative again and is feeling better. I've got right off a cliff though, absolutely exhausted and short of breath. Getting up to use the loo feels like having run a 5k. Been quarantined to a bedroom and the mother in law is here helping with the baby. Not fun.
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@tewaio said in Coronavirus - UK:
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@tewaio Glad you aren't feeling too bad.
Think some of these test results a bit shonky. Very odd that your wife who actually is ill is negative, whilst you positive.
My neighbour had all the symptoms (nailed Covid bingo as he called it) and tested negative as well as negative for the antibodies. He couldn't tell the difference between tea and coffee!
Bit of an update, my wife tested negative again and is feeling better. I've got right off a cliff though, absolutely exhausted and short of breath. Getting up to use the loo feels like having run a 5k. Been quarantined to a bedroom and the mother in law is here helping with the baby. Not fun.
Get well soon
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@tewaio said in Coronavirus - UK:
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@tewaio Glad you aren't feeling too bad.
Think some of these test results a bit shonky. Very odd that your wife who actually is ill is negative, whilst you positive.
My neighbour had all the symptoms (nailed Covid bingo as he called it) and tested negative as well as negative for the antibodies. He couldn't tell the difference between tea and coffee!
Bit of an update, my wife tested negative again and is feeling better. I've got right off a cliff though, absolutely exhausted and short of breath. Getting up to use the loo feels like having run a 5k. Been quarantined to a bedroom and the mother in law is here helping with the baby. Not fun.
Take care of yourself mate.
Slimmest of silver linings is good to know the test results work!
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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@tewaio said in Coronavirus - UK:
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@tewaio Glad you aren't feeling too bad.
Think some of these test results a bit shonky. Very odd that your wife who actually is ill is negative, whilst you positive.
My neighbour had all the symptoms (nailed Covid bingo as he called it) and tested negative as well as negative for the antibodies. He couldn't tell the difference between tea and coffee!
Bit of an update, my wife tested negative again and is feeling better. I've got right off a cliff though, absolutely exhausted and short of breath. Getting up to use the loo feels like having run a 5k. Been quarantined to a bedroom and the mother in law is here helping with the baby. Not fun.
Take care of yourself mate.
Slimmest of silver linings is good to know the test results work!
Thanks. Yes, when I got my result I genuinely thought it was a false positive.... definitely not. It goes to show how you can be infectious with no symptoms which is the whole problem containing it.
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@tewaio said in Coronavirus - UK:
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@tewaio Glad you aren't feeling too bad.
Think some of these test results a bit shonky. Very odd that your wife who actually is ill is negative, whilst you positive.
My neighbour had all the symptoms (nailed Covid bingo as he called it) and tested negative as well as negative for the antibodies. He couldn't tell the difference between tea and coffee!
Bit of an update, my wife tested negative again and is feeling better. I've got right off a cliff though, absolutely exhausted and short of breath. Getting up to use the loo feels like having run a 5k. Been quarantined to a bedroom and the mother in law is here helping with the baby. Not fun.
Sounds like a good dose of man flu.
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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@majorrage said in Coronavirus - UK:
@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
I don’t see any big changes to be honest and anticipate a National lockdown sometime in October or early November for the winter
I'm not ruling it out and Whitty has said as much that there may well be some restrictions next Winter.
But the politics will make it extremely tough to get this through.
Well there’ll be no opposition from Starmer, so that’s one less hurdle
I saw a great quote on Andrew Neil's page about Starmer's strategy:
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@pakman Ha ... very good. Reminds me of something I'm about to post in the politics section ..
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - UK:
@tim said in Coronavirus - UK:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - UK:
Aparently 50% of PCR tests are false positives.
That sounds very wrong. What is the source? I've seen nothing like that.
Hi @pakman, sorry I didn't reply to this. Had a busy and weird week.
I did read a comment, but not a paper, about changing the amplification cycle threshold to avoid non viable virus particles/remnants. I really can't comment without doing a deep dive into what is going on. I would like to see a lot more long-read sequencing data, at the least, to interpret this.
Quite possible that detecting many recovered infections, but sensitivity also very important to contain outbreaks from people who have been infected but not had time to develop an observable infection.
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Three cases of the more deadly Brazilian variant that existing vaccines are less effective against discovered in South Gloucestershire and three somewhere om Scotland:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-variants-identified-in-uk
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https://www.ft.com/content/767fdd85-5329-479d-b565-4ec85d28b492
After battling with AstraZeneca over shipment delays, and even casting doubt over its Covid-19 jab’s efficacy, EU countries are seeing stocks of the company’s shots pile up — unused.
As of Friday, France had administered 16 per cent of the 1.1m doses of the two-injection vaccine it received since the first delivery in early February, according to health ministry data. As of Thursday, Germany had given a little over one-fifth of the 1.45 million doses, about the same proportion as Italy, which has received over 1m doses. Spain has used just under a third of a total of 808,000 doses as of Friday.
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@tim what are these countries doing?
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Meanwhile, Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi tells the media that, now supplies are becoming plentiful, the UK is gearing up to administer up to 1m doses a day by mid-March.
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - UK:
@tim what are these countries doing?
Being good Europeans and fucking things up.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - UK:
So is the inference that locking down is not as effective as vigilance in an 'open' society?
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@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - UK:
So is the inference that locking down is not as effective as vigilance in an 'open' society?
And/or that lower average BMI and more single person households also helps.
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@mikethesnow @Donsteppa it was the correlation that got me, pretty wild.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - UK:
@mikethesnow @Donsteppa it was the correlation that got me, pretty wild.
As in the similarity of the data points?
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Show on BBC1 last night
Why is Covid Killing People of Colour?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p097gzdcCentral theme was the British system and the NHS is systematically racist and is the reason for higher percentage of deaths amongst people of colour compared with their white counterparts.
During the show, Dr Guddi Singh stated that 95% of the deaths amongst doctors was of people with colour. She said that it can't be attributed to lack of opportunity, education, or wealth but failed to delve deeper.
I guess it didn't fit their 'hypothesis'
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@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - UK:
Show on BBC1 last night
Why is Covid Killing People of Colour?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p097gzdcCentral theme was the British system and the NHS is systematically racist and is the reason for higher percentage of deaths amongst people of colour compared with their white counterparts.
During the show, Dr Guddi Singh stated that 95% of the deaths amongst doctors was of people with colour. She said that it can't be attributed to lack of opportunity, education, or wealth but failed to delve deeper.
I guess it didn't fit their 'hypothesis'
There is a chance of quite an ugly revolt happening here with the continual plying of the same theme. Some of the more, shall we say, controversial people on my whatsapp charts are stating to trot out the old "why don't you fuck off back to where you came from then" with a bit more venom ...
That obviously ignores the fact that an extremely large percentage of POC in Britain are not first generation & not something I get involved with.
But too many people are painting the white man as the enemy in arguably the least racist country on the planet. The fact is that POC in the country currently have a much greater chance of higher education than the white men from up north.
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@mikethesnow I do wonder if any of these people actually believe the shit they are spouting. Are they really suggesting with any degree of belief, let alone evidence that the NHS systematically provides a two tier service based on ethnicity?
