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Definately, the polls & media weren't great, but on the most part they were pretty much within the expected polling error levels tho, at the high end (4%ish) but not wildly off. The narrative has been they were WAY off because that discredits all other polls (approval for example). Thats not really true.
The media got the reporting of the polling very wrong, the polls themselves were only slightly (for polls) wrong.
Prior to Trumps win 538 posted an article explictly saying if the polls are out by a similar error level as in 2012, Trump wins -
The media just didn't report that narrative. You could argue that led to a lot of Clinton voters not bothering to vote as it was in the bag
Trump - and a couple of Trump voters on here, are pushing this idea of "polls wrong, media wrong, therefore nothing they ever say again will be valid", because that obviously a fantastic story to get ingrained in people's minds ahead of what he is going to do.
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What I'm getting at is that even if the polls were within the margin of error that margin was entirely in Trumps favour because the sample had missed sectors that were Trump favourable.
If they are still missing those sectors then I don't expect favourability polls to be that accurate.
What is interesting in that link of the disapproval rating is the swing to disapproval in the last few days. Seems that some of his actions are not being viewed well.What will also be interesting is what happens after the initial burst of actions to appease his supporters. What will be the substance that will carry the support?
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@gt12 said in US Politics:
And, of course this. The independent is reporting that there are more than a million names on a petition against him being able to visit:
The petition says no such thing, it says they don't want him to have a state visit. He can come and have talks with the government. But they don't want the red carpet rolled out and they don't want the queen subjected to entertaining him, or him addressing the commons.
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Yeah, I can totally buy that polling groups still aren't hitting his audience. Thats very much a possibility. Tho' I don't buy any of his voters are shy now, they sure as fuck are not shy. They won, everyone else needs to STFU.
I'm personally more interested in how long the fluffing he's doing now to hit his audience without actually delivering anything to them lasts before that audience realise they are being fucked.
EG tarriffs, his audience love that, but the group tarriffs hit hugely are those who spend most of their income on general crap - ie the poor. Or when the new jobs from factories dont arrive & those that do are for skilled graduates running automated plants etc. Or the tax cuts that he's already said deliver nothing to the poor and a big cut to the rich. Or a Pakistani & a Saudi machine gun a shopping mall.
That's when it gets really entertaining. Like the way its dawning on a lot of Trump voters that Obamacare is infact ACA. Because they didn't know. At some stage in the next few years people who voted for tax cuts, jobs, tarriffs & no Obamacare will have no healthcover, no jobs, the crap they buy is 25% more expensive & the rich have had a tax cut. Yet thats exactly what they voted for.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in US Politics:
@Donsteppa said in US Politics:
@Frank said in US Politics:
Aaah the hypocrisy.
Aaah the contrived false choice.
That is not contrived.... and Frank was not saying it was a choice. It is hypocrisy and double standards. Obama pretty much single handedly instigated the debacle in Syria. He gets Noble Peace Prize.... Trump stops visitors from unstable or 'antagonistic' countries.. and he is vilified. If you cannot see the double standards in that.. well...
It's a simplified false choice for people who love distilling everything down to a twitter post or polemic soundbite. Even things as simple as civil wars.
I wouldn't have given Obama a Nobel Peace Prize either, and especially not that early on in his tenure. A shit load of people instigated and contributed to the debacle in Syria, from Assad to ISIS to Putin to Iran, NATO & the EU to Saudi. Including Obama and his response was neither good nor helpful, and didn't cover him with glory.
Ironically, if my memory is right, to have done much more or 'got it right' Obama would have needed more of the 'violence and destroyed states' or regime change that the Wikileaks tweet laments.
Either way, a more useful conversation than a Wikileaks tweet.
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@Donsteppa said in US Politics:
It's a simplified false choice for people who love distilling everything down to a twitter post or polemic soundbite. Even things as simple as civil wars.
Yep, unless Obama caused the drought that actually sparked the war.
Four years of devastating drought beginning in 2006 caused at least 800,000 farmers to lose their entire livelihood and about 200,000 simply abandoned their lands, according to the Center for Climate & Security. In some areas, all agriculture ceased. In others, crop failures reached 75 percent. And generally as much as 85 percent of livestock died of thirst or hunger. Hundreds of thousands of Syria’s farmers gave up, abandoned their farms, and fled to the cities and towns in search of almost non-existent jobs and severely short food supplies. Outside observers including UN experts estimated that between 2 and 3 million of Syria’s 10 million rural inhabitants were reduced to “extreme poverty.”
And so tens of thousands of frightened, angry, hungry, and impoverished former farmers were jammed into Syria’s towns and cities, where they constituted tinder ready to catch fire. The spark was struck on March 15, 2011, when a relatively small group gathered in the southwestern town of Daraa to protest against government failure to help them. Instead of meeting with the protesters and at least hearing their complaints, the government saw them as subversives. The lesson of Hama must have been at the front of the mind of every member of the Assad regime. Failure to act decisively, Hama had shown, inevitably led to insurrection. Compromise could come only after order was assured. So Bashar followed the lead of his father. He ordered a crackdown. And the army, long frustrated by inaction and humiliated by its successive defeats in confrontation with Israel, responded violently. Its action backfired. Riots broke out all over the country. As they did, the government attempted to quell them with military force. It failed. So, during the next two years, what had begun as a food and water issue gradually turned into a political and religious cause.
Thats obv. much longer than a tweet (as is the excellent article) so I'm expecting most will stick with "Thanks Obama!".
The truth is even more "troubling" for some on here as it actually links in with extreme climate change.
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@gollum said in US Politics:
At least the ban is keeping the real scum out. Australians.
From your article
"The resulting confusion and general evil of such an order "
Lol... just lol.
And i dont take anyone seriously who calls it a Muslim ban.
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And Gollum stop talking about polls like you understand anything about them, you clearly do not. You have proven that already, and you lectured and lectured and then ran away. You would be the very last person I would take opinion on polls from.
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Obama caused massive loss of life in the ME. The current Syria's civil war is nearly entirely down to him and his administration.
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@NTA said in US Politics:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in US Politics:
Obama pretty much single handedly instigated the debacle in Syria.
That is such great hyperbole it needs a new term... Maybe "Superbole"?
Its your gift for blaming Obama, while ignoring every other region-destabilising US administration since (say) Carter, that is truly breathtaking to observe.
I know, I know - in your world, whataboutery only works when its Obama. Everyone else before him doesn't have anything to answer for.
I'll make sure to give myself a forehead slap for my forgetfulness. Maybe later.
Trump stops visitors from unstable or 'antagonistic' countries..
Excluding Syria
I actually wonder what the logic is there. I mean, Syria is a fucking basket case, so maybe Trump is leaving the door open for refugees. That's pretty cool.
And, as @Crucial says, if he was going after nutbag countries, why not also include other noted basket cases like Egypt, Pakistan, and Indonesia? You know - the places where terrorists are known to thrive and plan the downfall of western society, as per RWNJ Volume 1.
Anyway, there is talk that Trump may put Pakistan on the list, which might disappoint his mate Nawaz.
Excluding Syria?? FFS how can you not know that Syria was included?
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@gollum said in US Politics:
Days until achieving MAJORITY disapproval from @Gallup
Reagan: 727
Bush I: 1336
Clinton: 573
Bush II: 1205
Obama: 936Trump: 8. days.
At some stage he gets so toxic that GOP house & senate candidates have to seperate from him or lose their seats. That usually takes longer than 8 days... Tho' I'm sure there are "alternate" facts & as BSG will post later, polls are always wrong. Always.
It would be no different really if Clinton was president. She was going to be unpopular too.
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@hydro11 said in US Politics:
@gollum said in US Politics:
Days until achieving MAJORITY disapproval from @Gallup
Reagan: 727
Bush I: 1336
Clinton: 573
Bush II: 1205
Obama: 936Trump: 8. days.
At some stage he gets so toxic that GOP house & senate candidates have to seperate from him or lose their seats. That usually takes longer than 8 days... Tho' I'm sure there are "alternate" facts & as BSG will post later, polls are always wrong. Always.
It would be no different really if Clinton was president. She was going to be unpopular too.
It would be an unreported unpopularity though,
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Here is an interesting poll.....
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in US Politics:
Excluding Syria?? FFS how can you not know that Syria was included?
See subsequent post - Syria on the "indefinite" list. The list of seven were the temporaries.
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And Obama did the same thing in regards to Cubans not long ago.. got a valid Visa.. turn up in the US and get detained. Obamas executive order also caused confusion and was equally ham fisted.
Where was the outrage then? -
@NTA said in US Politics:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in US Politics:
Excluding Syria?? FFS how can you not know that Syria was included?
See subsequent post - Syria on the "indefinite" list. The list of seven were the temporaries.
Which makes your stupid rant even more ignorant and retarded.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in US Politics:
Which makes you stupid rant even more ignorant and retarded.
Because I misread something?
How fucking retarded, then, do you look, due to a complete lack of understanding about the geopolitical history of the Middle East, and the underlying US interference for the past 4-5 decades?
"Its Obama's fault" said Baron.
Because he hates black guys or something...
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@NTA said in US Politics:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in US Politics:
Which makes you stupid rant even more ignorant and retarded.
Because I misread something?
How fucking retarded, then, do you look, due to a complete lack of understanding about the geopolitical history of the Middle East, and the underlying US interference for the past 4-5 decades?
"Its Obama's fault" said Baron.
Because he hates black guys or something...
Yeah cool stuff... you look foolish and ignorant and you got caught, suck it up and move on.
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