Will our kids be immortal or extinct?



  • http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html
     
    I am never ceased to be amazed by the lack of interest on things that really matter. I posted this on FB.. and it got less response than the cute story of my kids selling plums.
     
    This should be one of humanities biggest issues, this should be way ahead of climate change, Kardashians  and other issues.



  • I agree, will read the blog tonight.



  • Looks interesting, I will give it a read.



  • Thanks for sharing BSG, that is a cracker of an  article. Mind blown!!



  • Thanks. Hardly revolutionary though.  Maybe it's being a bit older but I can from personal observation attest to the exponential rate of growth.
     
    I remember my grandfather telling me the whole town he was brought up in used to run out into the street if a car drove in. He died the week of Apollo11.
     
    I remember TV arriving in NZ.
     
    When I first flew it was on Air NZ's first jet. When I first went overseas it was the era of postcards, aerogrammes, telegrams and party lines.
     
    When I was a teenager we were all convinced we'd die in a fireball (if we were lucky) before the millennium.
     
    By the mid 80's with the rise of computers and the start of genetic engineering, I figured I had every chance of living forever.
     
    Now - I'm pissed off that I'm probably going to die a couple of decades before eternal life becomes a viable option.
     
    The rate of change is exciting, but I do worry that ironically the coming generation may not live as long or as well as I have.
     
    I don't worry about climate change or AI or getting hit by a meteorite for one thing I'm sure of; whatever the future brings, we won't see the important stuff coming. We never do.
     
    Mankind's resilience is based on almost totally fucking things up and then a deux ex machine appearing and taking us all off in a totally different direction.
     
    I'm just gonna keep taking the tablets and wait for someone to give me one that undoes the 50+ years of self-inflicted damage. If that's a super intelligent AI I'll gladly stand him a round of CRC.
     
    (was I just machineist?)



  • Most people see the size of WBW articles and get put off. You need to set aside that time you'd usually waste on TV or something, find a quiet spot, and just clean your brain in preparation.
     
    Because that guy asks some fucking scary questions, but also wakes you up to some pretty amazing shit.
     
     
     
     
     
    To sidetrack for a moment: I first saw WBW with this article, and figured he was like theoatmeal.com
     
    www.huffingtonpost.com/wait-but-why/generation-y-unhappy_b_3930620.html
     
    But its sooooo much deeper than that.



  • Most people see the size of WBW articles and get put off. You need to set aside that time you'd usually waste on TV or something, find a quiet spot, and just clean your brain in preparation.

    Would help if the writer didn't waffle on about the same point 10 different ways before getting on with it. 
     
    Yep, exponential rate of change got it....way before the need for a Back to the Future analogy.



  • Would help if the writer didn't waffle on about the same point 10 different ways before getting on with it. 
     
    Yep, exponential rate of change got it....way before the need for a Back to the Future analogy.

    Way to go on in  finding something to complain about.
    Knew I could count on you.



  • Most people see the size of WBW articles and get put off. You need to set aside that time you'd usually waste on TV or something, find a quiet spot, and just clean your brain in preparation.
     
    Because that guy asks some fucking scary questions, but also wakes you up to some pretty amazing shit.
     
     
     
     
     
    To sidetrack for a moment: I first saw WBW with this article, and figured he was like theoatmeal.com
     
    www.huffingtonpost.com/wait-but-why/generation-y-unhappy_b_3930620.html
     
    But its sooooo much deeper than that.

    I liked that article. It is a hard balance as a parent though, it is natural to tell your kids how awesome you think they are.. as I do. But at the same time you need to show them that hard work gets them places not parental approval.



  • To sidetrack for a moment: I first saw WBW with this article, and figured he was like theoatmeal.com
     
    www.huffingtonpost.com/wait-but-why/generation-y-unhappy_b_3930620.html
     
    But its sooooo much deeper than that.

    I like that article. A lot.
     
    It reinforces my prejudices
     
    1  That Gen Y's have a massive chip and sense of entitlement1
    2  That I got to my current position in life through hard work and endeavour.  I am the Captain Cook (or Kirk) of the corporate world - luck didn't come into it.
     
    Bet the author's a boomer....
     
    1 Better yet - it justifies it.  Should be compulsory reading for all Lucy's.



  • Thanks. Hardly revolutionary though.  Maybe it's being a bit older but I can from personal observation attest to the exponential rate of growth.
     
    I remember my grandfather telling me the whole town he was brought up in used to run out into the street if a car drove in. He died the week of Apollo11.
     
    I remember TV arriving in NZ.
     
    When I first flew it was on Air NZ's first jet. When I first went overseas it was the era of postcards, aerogrammes, telegrams and party lines.
     
    When I was a teenager we were all convinced we'd die in a fireball (if we were lucky) before the millennium.
     
    By the mid 80's with the rise of computers and the start of genetic engineering, I figured I had every chance of living forever.
     
    Now - I'm pissed off that I'm probably going to die a couple of decades before eternal life becomes a viable option.
     
    The rate of change is exciting, but I do worry that ironically the coming generation may not live as long or as well as I have.
     
    I don't worry about climate change or AI or getting hit by a meteorite for one thing I'm sure of; whatever the future brings, we won't see the important stuff coming. We never do.
     
    Mankind's resilience is based on almost totally fucking things up and then a deux ex machine appearing and taking us all off in a totally different direction.
     
    I'm just gonna keep taking the tablets and wait for someone to give me one that undoes the 50+ years of self-inflicted damage. If that's a super intelligent AI I'll gladly stand him a round of CRC.
     
    (was I just machineist?)

    A mate of mine's grandfather was alive to see the Wright Brothers through to the moon landing. Given that sort of leap, I'd need to see teleportation in my lifetime to replicate that sort of progression. Since the Concorde is dead, it's hard to envision a realistic transportation system that moves people magnitudes faster than what happens now as opposed to moving magnitudes more of people.
     
    Human beings living longer isn't to be taken for granted either given the onset and prevalence of preventable diseases in wealthy societies, superbugs etc.
     
    I'm more concerned about employment opportunities for future generations:



  • antipodean,Given the gap between Kittyhawk and Tranquillity Base was only 66 years, plenty of people bridge that gap.Also I think people alive today (including me) have too, just not in flight.Your smart phone is way more powerful than the comparative abacus' that powered the Apollo programme



  • We seem to be discussing the first part of the article more than the truly scary part... we are in all likelihood only decades away from creating an intelligence thousands of time smarter than us.
     
    How can we even comprehend what it could do?



  • We seem to be discussing the first part of the article more than the truly scary part... we are in all likelihood only decades away from creating an intelligence thousands of time smarter than us.
     
    How can we even comprehend what it could do?

    John Connor or Morpheus will sort it out for us.



  • antipodean,
    Given the gap between Kittyhawk and Tranquillity Base was only 66 years, plenty of people bridge that gap.
    Also I think people alive today (including me) have too, just not in flight.
    Your smart phone is way more powerful than the comparative abacus' that powered the Apollo programme

    Yeah, but Apollo 11 happened before I was born...
     
    I've always been surrounded by electricity - we had a tv, a phone, got a video cassette player so large flat screen panels, mobile phones, media storage etc has over my life seemed a perfectly reasonable transition of technology. Almost linear given you could only ever use the capability of the computer in front of you. Even now my workstation for which you'd need ~50 million ENIACs still can't do things fast enough. Perhaps the unreasonable expectation is what drives the exponential progress.

    We seem to be discussing the first part of the article more than the truly scary part... we are in all likelihood only decades away from creating an intelligence thousands of time smarter than us.

    I'm more interested in abstract thought when replacing us. When will machines evolve to have a renaissance, an impressionist movement, grunge, etc.
     
    Skynet blowing us all up isn't going to keep me up at night.



  • http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html
     
    I am never ceased to be amazed by the lack of interest on things that really matter. I posted this on FB.. and it got less response than the cute story of my kids selling plums.
     
    This should be one of humanities biggest issues, this should be way ahead of climate change, Kardashians  and other issues.

    Cheers, I probably won't get a good nights sleep for quite a while but it was an interesting read. 
     
    I read a theory somewhere that machines of that intelligence won't want to wipe us out because our capacity for stupidity , health issues and need for food would  give it a reason to exist . I hope its right.



  • We seem to be discussing the first part of the article more than the truly scary part... we are in all likelihood only decades away from creating an intelligence thousands of time smarter than us.
     
    How can we even comprehend what it could do?

    Wonder if it'll pick a disciple  :think:
     
    I love sci-fi for how it stretches ideas about what that sort of future tech might look like, or how humans would live alongside it. Get the sense that the (eventual) truth will be stranger than any fiction to date.



  • Wonder if it'll pick a disciple  :think:
     
    I love sci-fi for how it stretches ideas about what that sort of future tech might look like, or how humans would live alongside it. Get the sense that the (eventual) truth will be stranger than any fiction to date.

    I dunno.  If you look at 2015 in Back To The future, and the real 2015, the BTTF one seemed far more interesting!



  • Or are we more likely to get The Matrix version...
     
    Fingers crossed!



  • Be careful with predictions that rely on Moore's Law continuing. It's officially dead now.
     
    It's also worth looking into the power requirements for exascale computing. DARPA, NSA etc are looking into radical alternatives to silicon CMOS such as superconducting switches.


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