Brexit



  • The UK will vote on the Brexit on 23rd June. I'm interested to find out what Ferners think about the Brexit.



  • Fullermorg put a pretty good post up on Facebook the other week regarding this. It was just lisitng a few things that has been good for the UK.



  • Two years ago with the Scots it was all about "Better Together"...



  • I voted for the Brexit.. partly because I want to see the fall out.



  • As seems it seems customary I will wait until the result before voting in this thread.



  • I didn't vote as I truly have no idea if it is a good idea or not



  • I voted to remain as I earned myself a British passport and I like the idea that I can work in most of Europe.



  • If they leave, the EU should totally relegate the UK to rest-of-world status, with tariffs, restricted immigration etc.



  • Or it could be like Norway or Switzerland.



  • Or it could be like Norway or Switzerland.
    More likely I reckon .



  • Over here in the UK the speculation has yet to reach fever pitch, in fact it's yet to reach simmering point even. There are many polls which give the result as a narrow stay in vote but the bookies have it as a pretty clear cut result for staying in. Anything but a narrow result. The thing is that many of the polls are online which, when you think about it are elective polls, you really only get the people that are already invested voting. There have been a few more random polls, telephone, on the street type of thing and these chime much more closely with the bookies. But of course the career politicians that we are landed with these days only ever listen to their own echo chambers and consequently are on tenterhooks as to the result.
     
    As has been seen just recently - the NZ flag referendum, the Scottish independence referendum, people dislike and are wary of change. Various pollies point to the UKIP successes in by-elections as an indicator but in reality that is just a knee-jerk complaint about immigration or whatever the latest grouse about the EU is. When it came to the General Election the effect was quite different. Now a General Election allows a degree of acceptable change - after all you can change it back in five years time. A referendum is either a once off or maybe a 30 year decision and if things go as history would suggest the bulk of the undecided or un-committed will likely vote for no change. Funny thing is, if we were not in the EU and the referendum was called these people would likely vote to stay out IMO.



  • I'm pretty on the fence on this one, I think anyone trying to make an economic argument for or against is basically guessing as there is no real way to know (and no control to test scientifically) - short term there will be some volatility/uncertainty for business, long term the UK will still be a large, wealthy, broadly well-educated modern economy and doing fine.
    The real issue is sovereignty and Britain's willingness to devolve powers to Brussels. Having lived here for 10.5 years on various types of visa I've born the brunt of the ever-tightening and shifting Byzantine immigration rules, and the absurdity of how much it all costs. From a purely selfish point of view I am eligible to become a naturalised UK citizen in November and would like to have the right to work anywhere in Europe, so will probably vote Remain. That said, the one and only thing all the political parties could agree on at the last general election was that they're all fairly anti immigration. Because EU migration makes up most of the net inflows, and they can't do anything about that, the laws get tougher and tougher on non-EU migrants, just so politicians can be seen to be doing something. So you get these absurd situations where:
     
    PhD students get detained when visiting the university they are studying at
    http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2016/01/26/arrested-humiliated-detained-how-britain-treats-foreign-stud
     
    Unlucky users of a particular English language testing center get deported
    http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2016/03/23/disaster-for-theresa-may-as-legal-ruling-brings-student-depo
     
    A 71 year old who has lived here 50 years gets deported for being outside the UK too long for health reasons
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/american-grandad-deported-uk-after-7264500
     
    This is seriously unjust behaviour by the Home Office which has been cornered btwn the UK people being anti-immigration (a viewpoint I don't agree with, but that's not the point) and EU membership which means they can do very little about it - so they hammer the non-EU minority. So I find myself thinking perhaps the UK would be better off leaving the EU and taking proper control over who they do and do not let in, since it clearly is such an important issue.
     
    The irony of this is that by leaving the EU the UK could better control migration via visa etc, but would have less control over refugees / asylum seekers (an even more emotive issue). This is because by leaving the EU they could no longer have refugee processing centers outside UK soil (in Calais). Once asylum seekers make it onto UK soil they have more rights and there is much less the UK can do about deciding who to let in and in what numbers. So by solving one issue you open up another - I think this principle of unintended consequences can be applied to almost any issue in the Brexit debate, which is why its so complicated, and why (probably) people will ultimately go with the "safe" status quo.



  • Or it could be like Norway or Switzerland.

    Only issue there is don't they have to comply with most EU laws to get access? So the arguement is "we wont have to comply! we can be like Switzerland... which has to mostly comply, and has no say in anything"
     
    Its a massive cluster fuck.
     
    The In guys aren't able to clearly express the upsides of being in & the hard reality of being out. The out guys are just going "we'll be out & it'll all be good" without any actual explanation of anything. In any sane world an adult would go "you know what, no vote till you idiots can exactly say what we get when we vote"
     
    Plus if its out it'll take 10 years to unwind, by which time we'll be back in again. This isn't something that'll switch overnight. Or even within a year.
     
    The people I've spoken to that are most passionate one way or the other seem to have zero actual idea what happens. Its actually worse than the electoral reform vote in NZ back in the early 90's when people vermently supported PPR & then when they got it went "WTF is this?!"
     
    I'm actually of the opinion that half of it on the tory side is to do with who gets to be next leader & the Brexit thing is almost collateral damage



  • The scary thing is that this will probably come down to the employed masses complaining about all the EU foreigners coming over to scrounge benefits (which doesn't really happen). And the unemployed masses complaining about the EU foreigners coming over to steal their jobs. Which jobs don't actually exist because they've all been outsourced to somewhere outside of the EU. And it will have nothing at all to do with having free access to the world's largest trading bloc.



  • I would rather stay in the EU if it could be reformed to something different but I don't think that is possible. I think the EU would agree to do free trade deals with the UK were they to leave.



  • Only issue there is don't they have to comply with most EU laws to get access? So the arguement is "we wont have to comply! we can be like Switzerland... which has to mostly comply, and has no say in anything"
     
    Its a massive cluster fuck.
     
    The In guys aren't able to clearly express the upsides of being in & the hard reality of being out. The out guys are just going "we'll be out & it'll all be good" without any actual explanation of anything. In any sane world an adult would go "you know what, no vote till you idiots can exactly say what we get when we vote"
     
    Plus if its out it'll take 10 years to unwind, by which time we'll be back in again. This isn't something that'll switch overnight. Or even within a year.
     
    The people I've spoken to that are most passionate one way or the other seem to have zero actual idea what happens. Its actually worse than the electoral reform vote in NZ back in the early 90's when people vermently supported PPR & then when they got it went "WTF is this?!"
     
    I'm actually of the opinion that half of it on the tory side is to do with who gets to be next leader & the Brexit thing is almost collateral damage

    No they don't. The UK could stay in the free trade market and be more selective (like Norway) implementing EU laws and regulations. Now they have to implement the majority. Only a small % are optional
     
    The EU is not democratic. The elected parliament only has rubber stamp powers. Laws and regulations are mainly either decided by international bodies. Or by lobbyists and bureaucrats. Parliament pushes a red or green button to vote as a last resort (if show on hands etc is close) But have almost no power to form a Govt or change or introduce new laws.
     
    One of its main driving factors (and almost has been from the start) is ever closer union. Where a new US of Europe will be set up. With the current countries would be split into regions that has one main purpose. To introduce the rules from the center
     
    So this vote is really about UK sovereignty / independence /  democracy. Or being in the slow lane to join a new country. Ruled by an appointed elite. But no one will talk about this. The inners will focus on scare stories. And leave is just a shambles.



  • The scary thing is that this will probably come down to the employed masses complaining about all the EU foreigners coming over to scrounge benefits (which doesn't really happen). And the unemployed masses complaining about the EU foreigners coming over to steal their jobs. Which jobs don't actually exist because they've all been outsourced to somewhere outside of the EU. And it will have nothing at all to do with having free access to the world's largest trading bloc.

    It does happen. Esp in London. They are good, hard workers too. But it must push wages down for the low paid. this a jobs being sent overseas makes life tough for those who haven't got the right skill set
     
    And this is a good document (a shorter version of a longer one) On how to leave the EU
     
    But the papers would sooner focus on scare stories

    http://eureferendum.com/themarketsolution.pdf

    THE
    Flexible Exit and Continuous Development
    THE MARKET SOLUTION
    THE DEFINITIVE EU EXIT PLAN FOR BRITAIN
    First Published 2016
    by Bretwalda Books,
    Unit 8, Fir Tree Close, Epsom, Surrey, KT17 3LD
    Copyright © 2016 Dr Richard AE North & Robert Oulds
    All rights reserved. No reproduction of any part of this publication
    is permitted without the prior written permission of the publisher:
    Bretwalda Books
    Unit 8, Fir Tree Close, Epsom,
    Surrey KT17 3LD
    info@BretwaldaBooks.com / www.BretwaldaBooks.com
    Cover design and typesetting:
    dkb creative limited / www.dkbcreative.com
    5
    Contents
    Our vision
    6
    Introduction 8
    The six stages
    Stage 1: Leaving the EU
    13
    Stage 2: Free movement, immigration and asylum
    17
    Stage 3: Creating a genuine European Single Market
    22
    Stage 4: Restoring independent policies
    26
    Stage 5: Trading with the rest of the world
    39
    Stage 6: Domestic reform
    44
    Conclusion 47
    13
    6
    Our vision
    Our vision is for a United Kingdom as a self-governing, self-confident, free trading
    nation state, releasing the potential of its citizens through direct democratic
    control of both national and local government and providing maximum freedom
    and responsibility for its people.
    The history of Britain for a thousand years has been as a merchant and maritime
    power playing its full role in European and world affairs while living under its
    own laws. It is our view that the UK can flourish again as an independent state
    trading both with our friends in the EU and the rest of Europe, while developing
    other relationships throughout the world as trading patterns evolve.



  • So this vote is really about UK sovereignty / independence /  democracy. Or being in the slow lane to join a new country. Ruled by an appointed elite. But no one will talk about this. The inners will focus on scare stories. And leave is just a shambles.

    That is some classic Winger right there.



  • That is some classic Winger right there.

    But its true. People pretend otherwise and bury their head in the sand. But ever closer union is a key driving force of the EU. And the EU regions have already been decided on
     
    Have a look at Greece. The people voted for change but the EU ruling elite just said go to hell. And turned off the money tap. Once countries are in the Eu and Euro its too late. Democracy is as good as dead. Once this ever closer union is finished it is dead. Ruled by an appointed commission, lobbyists (who sit on committees to write the laws) and bureaucrats.
     
    Some do support the death of the UK as a sovereign, democratic nation. Most are asleep
     
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3489802/Jeremy-Clarkson-announces-wants-Britain-remain-EU-help-create-United-States-Europe.html Jeremy Clarkson announces he wants Britain to stay IN the EU to help create a 'United States of Europe' - and cheekily reveals he fancies David Cameron's wife
     
     
    Mr Clarkson, 55, admitted the EU had its problems but said they could be solved if leaders were held to account by the press in Britain, where 'an MP cannot even put a cup of coffee on expenses without being torn to pieces'.
    'Isn't it better to stay in and try to make the damn thing work properly?' he asks. 'To create a United States of Europe that functions as well as the United States of America? With one army and one currency and one unifying set of values?'



  • But ever closer union is a key driving force of the EU.

    Well done. You've uncovered the conspiracy that's expressly stated in the preamble to the treaty that established the EU. "European Union" - there's a clue in the name. Brits understand perfectly well that the EU is about achieving a political and economic union and that federalism requires the surrender of part of their sovereignty. Many are concerned however about the limits of this. Saying that the Brits are 'asleep' is condescending rubbish.
     
    Brexit is about whether or not the UK wants to continue to be part of the union and subscribe to the values that go along with it.  Many have a view that EU values no longer reflect UK values and want out. Others want to continue with the EU project as they recognize benefits in staying in. They are all getting their say. That all sounds like democracy is working.

    Have a look at Greece. The people voted for change but the EU ruling elite just said go to hell. And turned off the money tap.

    So I was down at the local last night and I said to my mate, 'Barry, you won't believe it. I called my bank manager and told him that my family and I had met up at the pub for a chinwag, and we've changed our mind and we don't want to pay our mortgage bills any more. Yeah, that one, the mortgage that I rescheduled last year because I didn't want to pay it then either. Yeah, the one I took out to do all the renos and build the croquet court and the fire pit out back. Yeah, the one where you told me to put all that shit on the mortgage application form. Oh, and then I told him that me and the family have told everyone we know that him and his bank are all fluffybunnys. And then I asked him for another loan. Do you know what the fucker said? He said he wouldn't give me any more money. What a prick.'