Brexit



  • @Rembrandt said in Brexit:

    @pakman Haven't read it yet but considering it's only a Blair era institution and reading this recent article it sounds incredibly disturbing of something that is supposed to be a 'supreme court'.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1186546/Brexit-news-lady-hale-boris-johnson-baroness-hale-brexit-supreme-court

    Sad day for British Law, which has historically been held in very high regard.



  • Forget all the Irish nonsense. This is the real problem we will face with a no deal.

    https://uk.yahoo.com/news/no-deal-brexit-dogging-rise-minister-085810758.html



  • @pakman said in Brexit:

    Would love to see EU position IF it had to face up to No Deal actually happening!

    I think you got a taste of that in the Cameron renegotiation.



  • @rotated said in Brexit:

    @pakman said in Brexit:

    Would love to see EU position IF it had to face up to No Deal actually happening!

    I think you got a taste of that in the Cameron renegotiation.

    Expect to see 100% blaming the UK and not much else honestly.



  • @Catogrande said in Brexit:

    Forget all the Irish nonsense. This is the real problem we will face with a no deal.

    https://uk.yahoo.com/news/no-deal-brexit-dogging-rise-minister-085810758.html

    Jesus H Christ



  • @MiketheSnow said in Brexit:

    @Catogrande said in Brexit:

    Forget all the Irish nonsense. This is the real problem we will face with a no deal.

    https://uk.yahoo.com/news/no-deal-brexit-dogging-rise-minister-085810758.html

    Jesus H Christ

    Don’t tell me you’re not interested



  • @Catogrande said in Brexit:

    @MiketheSnow said in Brexit:

    @Catogrande said in Brexit:

    Forget all the Irish nonsense. This is the real problem we will face with a no deal.

    https://uk.yahoo.com/news/no-deal-brexit-dogging-rise-minister-085810758.html

    Jesus H Christ

    Don’t tell me you’re not interested

    Don't have my HGV licence



  • So Merkel has told BoJo basically a deal ain't happening under the terms / ideas he's proposed.

    Still breaking, so tough to come up with what this exactly means. UK leaves without a deal? Corbyn and co get their way?



  • @MiketheSnow said in Brexit:

    @Catogrande said in Brexit:

    @MiketheSnow said in Brexit:

    @Catogrande said in Brexit:

    Forget all the Irish nonsense. This is the real problem we will face with a no deal.

    https://uk.yahoo.com/news/no-deal-brexit-dogging-rise-minister-085810758.html

    Jesus H Christ

    Don’t tell me you’re not interested

    Don't have my HGV licence

    I dont think HGV driver was the role you would play in that scenario....



  • @MajorRage said in Brexit:

    So Merkel has told BoJo basically a deal ain't happening under the terms / ideas he's proposed.

    Still breaking, so tough to come up with what this exactly means. UK leaves without a deal? Corbyn and co get their way?

    If nothing else It means that Bojo has more ammunition to blame others for no deal.
    I just cannot see how he loses the PR war after winning so many PR battles.



  • @MajorRage said in Brexit:

    So Merkel has told BoJo basically a deal ain't happening under the terms / ideas he's proposed.

    Still breaking, so tough to come up with what this exactly means. UK leaves without a deal? Corbyn and co get their way?

    Well, No10 say that Merkel says etc. Who knows? But @Baron-Silas-Greenback is right, if true, this gives Boris some serious ammo to go down the no deal route.



  • Indeed. Although if he officially moves his position to "no-deal" then we know that the rest of parliament is going to move heaven and earth to disrupt and ensure this doesn't happen.

    Which means likely another delay.
    Which means likely stuck in this never ending loop for much longer yet.



  • @MajorRage I just don't know what the answer is or what the outcome will be. Everyone says we're going out but no-one wants us to go (parliament that is). Good deal, shit deal, no deal. It doesn't seem to make much difference.

    Groundhog Day.



  • I can see what Britain is doing to avoid a no deal, I can see the compromises they have made, I can see the ideas they have.
    I havent seen any ideas or compromises from the eu or opposition.
    Ireland also seem to be acting like it isn't their problem



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:

    I can see what Britain is doing to avoid a no deal, I can see the compromises they have made, I can see the ideas they have.
    I havent seen any ideas or compromises from the eu or opposition.
    Ireland also seem to be acting like it isn't their problem

    I can see where the EU are coming from thought. They don’t want to make it an easy transition out in case it encourages any others to leave. Ireland I’m not so sure about. I don’t know enough about Varadkar to understand his motivation.



  • @Catogrande said in Brexit:

    I can see where the EU are coming from thought. They don’t want to make it an easy transition out in case it encourages any others to leave.

    This point hasn't been driven home well enough by the conservatives, specifically May when she kept going back for MV after MV.

    Europe and Britain come to the negotiating table with very different motivations. A win-win economic scenario for both parties is actually a win-lose scenario for Europe if it emboldens other countries to strive toward independence.

    While I wouldn't go so far as to say it is negotiating in good faith there is no doubt that the EU want to make an example out of them.

    Ironically, Cameron had he stayed was in the best position to prosecute that argument having already gone through two high-profile negotations with the EU.



  • @Catogrande said in Brexit:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:

    I can see what Britain is doing to avoid a no deal, I can see the compromises they have made, I can see the ideas they have.
    I havent seen any ideas or compromises from the eu or opposition.
    Ireland also seem to be acting like it isn't their problem

    I can see where the EU are coming from thought. They don’t want to make it an easy transition out in case it encourages any others to leave. Ireland I’m not so sure about. I don’t know enough about Varadkar to understand his motivation.

    Oh absolutely, I dont even know if the British ideas are good!
    But I know that theyare trying. It just seems like all you hear form the EU and Opposition is that is 'unworkable' , well if you are going to take that line.... you have to at least try yourself to find something yourself that is workable. At the moment they are just standing back 'poo pooing' everything. Its like Bojo is trying to build a fence between him and his neighbors and the neighbor just watches and then goes that is shit never going to work.. and that is it.
    At some point you just say fuck it you pompous objectionable twunt and you put up a fence that looks sweet from your side and all the sawn timber ends, rough cuts and nails are on his side. And anyone watching would think... yeah he deserved that.



  • Does Britain have any laws about PM's not having a criminal record? What if Boris at the last minute simply refuses to be forced to write a letter begging for an extension? That would break the law, possibly result in his arrest and even imprisonment. Not sure that will quell his popularity..If anything he might take on a bit of a 'freedom fighter' image.



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:

    I can see what Britain is doing to avoid a no deal, I can see the compromises they have made, I can see the ideas they have.
    I havent seen any ideas or compromises from the eu or opposition.
    Ireland also seem to be acting like it isn't their problem

    I, like most others, have absolutely no clue what game Varadkar is playing.

    Now just because Britain voted to leave the EU, that doesn't mean the Irish should suffer at all - and I totally get that. We've already seen a few companies move headquarters etc to Ireland since the vote, and hence if they play their cards right, they can do very well out of this.

    However, the reality is that they have the only land border with the UK & a large amount of their economy is based on trade with the UK. A few months ago I saw that the number of Irish living in the UK is > 500k. This may have changed now, but I doubt it. Varadkar should be coming across as the mediator, but instead is coming across the the most against.

    It seems that the EU is saying to Varadkar, we've got your back no problems and hence his position is to just rubbish every single thing that Boris says. It seems that saying something won't work is the default, as opposed to trying to work things through.

    I've still no idea how this is going to unfold. But my overall position remains unchanged, and frankly, unchallenged. An agreement which takes 27 countries 12 minutes to sign, aginst one country which cannot get it through parliament in 3 attempts, is not a good deal.

    Tusk's blame game tweet was just ridiculous, although that's something he has form in already. It does seem like the EU position is now "no-deal but blame Britain". I wonder which way this sort of approach is going to push UK voters ....



  • @MajorRage said in Brexit:

    Now just because Britain voted to leave the EU, that doesn't mean the Irish should suffer at all - and I totally get that.

    Suffer? No. But they need to face up to the reality that previous conveniences and luxuries that were once there no longer will be (as must the UK).

    Just because the UK is choosing to withdraw from the customs union and common market doesn't mean they have to be responsible for all the ramifications.



  • https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-news-guy-verhofstadt-eu-brexiteers-traitors-deal-a9149316.html

    "The real reason why this is happening is very simply: it's a blame game against everybody. A blame game against the European Union, against Ireland, against Mrs Merkel, against the British judicial system, against Labour, against the Lib Dems, even against Mrs May," he said.

    "The only one who is not to be blamed is Mr Johnson himself, apparently. But all the rest are the source of our problems. That is what is happening today. All those who are not playing his game are 'traitors' or a 'collaborator', or 'surrenderers'.

    "Well in my opinion, dear colleagues the real traitor is he or she who risks bringing disaster upon his country, its economy, and its citizens, by pushing Britain out of the European Union. That is in my opinion, a traitor."

    Between Sassoli saying he was now bypassing the executive and going to Bercow (??) and now this the EU are massively misplaying their hand.

    Why on earth would you interject the EU into national politics this close to the deadline and then use the same language against Boris than Labor clutched their pearls over last week?



  • Well well. Leo and Boris spent a nice day together, and both have come out saying they can see a path.

    I think this is hopefully a significant step. I guess whether or not it holds water, we shall see - I wouldn't say I'm overly optimistic, but it's nice to see UK / Ireland co-operating and being realistic about things.

    But then, of course .. Tusk has to go and say this:

    Donald Tusk
    The UK has still not come forward with a workable, realistic proposal. But I have received promising signals from Taoiseach @LeoVaradkar that a deal is possible. Even the slightest chance must be used. A no deal #Brexit will never be the choice of the EU.

    Is he actively trying to create a divide? Seriously.

    I'm an avid (not active, avid) Remainer and I'm starting to move away ... why on earth would he tweet that?????







  • @Tim Next step - getting those twats in Parliament to pass it.
    not.holding.breath.



  • https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_19_6120

    The revised Protocol provides a legally operational solution that avoids a hard border on the island of Ireland, protects the all-island economy and the Good Friday (Belfast) Agreement in all its dimensions and safeguards the integrity of the Single Market. This solution responds to the unique circumstances on the island of Ireland with the aim of protecting peace and stability.

    All other elements of the Withdrawal Agreement remain unchanged in substance, as per the agreement reached on 14 November 2018. The Withdrawal Agreement brings legal certainty where the UK's withdrawal from the EU created uncertainty: citizens' rights, the financial settlement, a transition period at least until the end of 2020, governance, Protocols on Gibraltar and Cyprus, as well as a range of other separation issues.



  • @Tim said in Brexit:

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_19_6120

    The revised Protocol provides a legally operational solution that avoids a hard border on the island of Ireland, protects the all-island economy and the Good Friday (Belfast) Agreement in all its dimensions and safeguards the integrity of the Single Market. This solution responds to the unique circumstances on the island of Ireland with the aim of protecting peace and stability.

    All other elements of the Withdrawal Agreement remain unchanged in substance, as per the agreement reached on 14 November 2018. The Withdrawal Agreement brings legal certainty where the UK's withdrawal from the EU created uncertainty: citizens' rights, the financial settlement, a transition period at least until the end of 2020, governance, Protocols on Gibraltar and Cyprus, as well as a range of other separation issues.

    It's been a while since I looked into that agreement..from memory there were some other big issues, might need to do a refresher.

    Going to be an interesting few days. What will Farage do? Will Labour and Lib Dem's still vote it down?..I'm guessing they probably would and as a result give Boris another win.



  • @Rembrandt said in Brexit:

    @Tim said in Brexit:

    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_19_6120

    The revised Protocol provides a legally operational solution that avoids a hard border on the island of Ireland, protects the all-island economy and the Good Friday (Belfast) Agreement in all its dimensions and safeguards the integrity of the Single Market. This solution responds to the unique circumstances on the island of Ireland with the aim of protecting peace and stability.

    All other elements of the Withdrawal Agreement remain unchanged in substance, as per the agreement reached on 14 November 2018. The Withdrawal Agreement brings legal certainty where the UK's withdrawal from the EU created uncertainty: citizens' rights, the financial settlement, a transition period at least until the end of 2020, governance, Protocols on Gibraltar and Cyprus, as well as a range of other separation issues.

    It's been a while since I looked into that agreement..from memory there were some other big issues, might need to do a refresher.

    Going to be an interesting few days. What will Farage do? Will Labour and Lib Dem's still vote it down?..I'm guessing they probably would and as a result give Boris another win.

    I haven't kept too close to this over the last couple of weeks, so this comment is based on instinct more than anything else... But if BJ has done a deal acceptable to the EU, after clearly favouring just crashing out, then a lack of Labour support (or anyone else for that matter) I suggest would play into Johnson's hand for a general election. I think most of the UK just want to move on and I suspect parliamentary bickering is starting to get on people's nerves.

    But as i said. The above view is based on nada...



  • Been following it closely. The fact the EU have moved on the withdrawal agreement (for Ireland) after stating so many times they wouldn't is a big win for Boris.

    Govt have calculated they can split the DUP and ERG, just keeping support of the latter, and get it through parliament by picking up the 19 or so Pro-Brexit Labour MPs and a big enough chunk of the expelled 21 Tory MPs. It will be very tight, and decided on Saturday (hopefully after the rugby).



  • Laura Kuenssberg
    @bbclaurak
    Barnier spells out that they have replaced the backstop - so while DUP still has concerns, the backstop was the biggest problem and it’s gone - that is a persuasive argument for brexiteers



  • Being out of the customs union is far from just a persuasive argument, it's the whole enchilada.

    Without hyperbole I don't believe I've seen a western politician so horribly wedged as Corbyn on an issue. He is left arguing against Brexit solely on the need for workers rights and environmental protection - the two key areas that tangentally drove the revolt in the first place.

    Better yet he is arguing entirely against his own convictions.



  • @rotated said in Brexit:

    ....... Without hyperbole I don't believe I've seen a western politician so horribly wedged as Corbyn on an issue. He is left arguing against Brexit solely on the need for workers rights and environmental protection - the two key areas that tangentally drove the revolt in the first place.

    Better yet he is arguing entirely against his own convictions.

    That's what you get when someone is more interested in their own lust for power and getting one over on the opposition than their actual political convictions or principles.



  • @Catogrande said in Brexit:

    That's what you get when someone is more interested in their own lust for power and getting one over on the opposition than their actual political convictions or principles.

    Some would argue lack of actual political convictions as been a major asset for Johnson!



  • @rotated said in Brexit:

    @Catogrande said in Brexit:

    That's what you get when someone is more interested in their own lust for power and getting one over on the opposition than their actual political convictions or principles.

    Some would argue lack of actual political convictions as been a major asset for Johnson!

    Indeed but made up for by an over-abundance of political ambition!



  • Disappointing to see what politicians have come out with since this came out.

    DUP - can't back it, doesn't give every single thing we want and more
    SNP - can't back it, revoke article 50
    Corbyn - can't back it, puts NHS at risk of US privatisation
    Lib Dems - can't back it, comment not relevant as they are now a Remain party.
    Brexit Party - can't back it, not a hard enough Brexit.

    I get that people are entrenched, but I firmly believe people are no longer voting in country's interest. Here's my prediction:

    Parliament doesn't back it, general election gets called.
    Boris & Co go to every single constituent who voted leave and the MP voted against the deal (this is likely to be 150+)
    Conservatives win around 48% of what's required.
    Conservatives go around all parties and say, only prepared to team up with anybody who agrees to vote for this deal.

    Somebody caves. Most likely the Brexit party.

    Done.



  • @MajorRage said in Brexit:

    Somebody caves. Most likely the Brexit party.

    Pretty much go along with your analysis although I hold out a 10% chance that enough Labour members will vote this deal through on Saturday. If they do it will be as a group en mass, so wouldn't come together until the final 24 hours.

    If there is a new election I think Boris has done enough to regain the Brexit vote over the past few months. There is no deal to be had simply say "we will deal with anyone commited to get Brexit done" and if Brexit do manage a 10-20 seat contingent it should be easy enough to have them capitulate.



  • Good summary ahead of the vote on Saturday:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-16/will-u-k-parliament-back-a-boris-johnson-brexit-we-do-the-math

    Boris Johnson has delivered the first part of his Brexit policy: He’s struck a deal with the European Union. Now, does he have the numbers to get it past Parliament?

    That hurdle tripped up his predecessor, Theresa May. Yet while British negotiators haggled with their European Union counterparts this week, another set of talks took place in London, where members of Parliament trooped into Johnson’s office to discuss whether they would support him.

    But can it be done? Here’s how the numbers break down.

    Target: 320
    Once non-voting MPs are accounted for, Johnson needs 320 MPs on his side to win any vote in the House of Commons.

    Baseline: 259
    The last time Theresa May tried to get her deal through, in March, she had the support of 279 Conservatives. They’re mostly likely to back a Johnson deal too, but there are some problems.

    Johnson expelled a group of MPs from the party in September after they backed legislation blocking a no-deal Brexit. They were joined by Amber Rudd, who resigned in sympathy. Also out of the party is Nick Boles, who quit the Conservatives earlier this year in frustration at the Brexit deadlock.

    As a result there are question marks against 19 former Tories who previously backed May’s deal. On top of that number, one deal-backing Conservative, Chris Davies, lost his seat to a Liberal Democrat in a recall election.

    That leaves Johnson 61 votes short. Where can he go?

    ‘Gaukeward Squad’: 19
    The expelled Tories, who take their name from former Justice Secretary David Gauke, are temperamentally loyalists -- some had never voted against their party before September. Many of them are looking for a way back in. Given that their objection to Johnson’s strategy was the fear he was pursuing a no-deal divorce, they may be happy to get back into line if he reaches an agreement.

    But it’s not certain. Gauke has questioned whether Johnson’s promises can be trusted, while former Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond has warned of the economic dangers of not having a close relationship with the EU. Several of them, including Antoinette Sandbach, have suggested the U.K. needs to hold another referendum.

    Johnson would be doing very well if he got all of them on side.

    Democratic Unionist Party: 10
    Johnson worked hard to try to keep Northern Ireland’s DUP engaged, but they have come out firmly against the new deal. They have deep reservations about anything that creates any kind of border between Britain and Northern Ireland, such as customs checks in the Irish Sea, and want a stronger consent mechanism that hands greater say to the regional assembly.

    The DUP were the big prize, because they would unlock...

    The Spartans: 28
    The self-titled “Spartans” are Conservative MPs who refused to vote for May’s deal. They chose their name to recall the fearsome Ancient Greek warriors who held off a numerically superior Persian force at the Battle of Thermopylae.

    When Johnson became prime minister, the Spartans were adamant they opposed any but the most minimal Brexit agreement. But in recent weeks they have begun to see the virtues of compromise. This is the result of the Benn Act, legislation that aims to prevent the U.K. leaving on Oct. 31 unless Johnson has reached a deal. It’s made the Spartans fear losing Brexit altogether.

    The leader of the Spartans, Steve Baker, twice described emerging deal as “tolerable” before it was unveiled. But another, former Northern Ireland Secretary Owen Paterson, was more critical. If the DUP were to get on board, most of the Spartans would fall into line. But even without the DUP, many are desperate to get Brexit over the line.

    Two Spartans, at least, are fairly sure to back a deal: Priti Patel and Theresa Villiers are both in Johnson’s Cabinet.

    Labour: 21
    May pinned her hopes on winning the support of a significant minority of MPs from the opposition Labour Party who believe the 2016 referendum result must be honored.

    She struggled to get more than five to vote with her, but 15 who didn’t back her last time joined some who did in signing a letter this month urging the EU to do a deal. That might imply a commitment to actually vote for such an agreement. There’s also Kate Hoey, a fierce supporter of Brexit, who’s likely to vote the same way as the Spartans.

    Against that is the fear of retribution from their party if they do so. Leader Jeremy Corbyn and his team sense that defeating Johnson’s deal is a key step on their route to beating him at an election. Others in the party see defeating a deal as essential to securing another referendum.

    Any Labour MP voting with the government risks expulsion, though a handful are retiring at the next election anyway so might not see that as an effective threat.

    Independents: 5
    Four independent MPs backed May’s deal in March. A fifth, John Woodcock, might also be tempted.

    Other MPs: 2
    Two possible supporters defy categorization. Liberal Democrat Norman Lamb, who is stepping down at the next election, represents a seat that voted to leave the EU and has been critical of his party’s anti-Brexit stance. And Jo Johnson, brother of the prime minister, voted against the deal in March, agreed to join his brother’s Cabinet, then resigned. Both could potentially back a deal to settle the issue.

    So, Johnson Needs 61 of 85 Available Votes

    It’s tight, but feasible. In charge of wooing MPs is Johnson’s political secretary, Danny Kruger, who has been speaking not just to Conservatives but to opposition lawmakers who might be tempted to support a deal. The opposite of his more famous and abrasive colleague Dominic Cummings, Kruger is a gentle and thoughtful former political speech-writer who has set up two charities to help people on the margins of society.

    The Risks
    There is a question, however, of whether the prime minister might lose some support, for example among those Tories who voted for a deal in March and regretted doing so afterward.

    There’s also another intriguing possibility. When Theresa May was prime minister, she said a Brexit deal that split Northern Ireland from Great Britain was one that no prime minister could accept. Now she’s a former prime minister and if that’s the path Johnson takes, could she live with it?

    She’ll almost certainly stay loyal, but then Johnson did make her life very difficult, so it’s hard to be sure.



  • Reading that, I give Boris zero chance.



  • @MajorRage Yeah. Maybe not zero, but low.Whoever said 10% earlier probably about right.

    The fact both sides seem to dislike the deal probably means its pretty good, and in the middle, as there's no perfect way out of this mess 🤷♂



  • @TeWaio said in Brexit:

    @MajorRage Yeah. Maybe not zero, but low.Whoever said 10% earlier probably about right.

    The fact both sides seem to dislike the deal probably means its pretty good, and in the middle, as there's no perfect way out of this mess 🤷♂

    The right leaning me still blames Corbyn for everything.


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