Super Rugby - Who's it going to be?



  • Three rounds left and month of internationals for key players to get injured and scupper their teams chances. But, leaving all that aside - how's it likely to stack up?
     
    Very tight and you can choose whichever grubby metaphor you want to go with that.
     
    Here's a set of calculations on how the table might pan out.
     
    To avoid some accusations of bias, where games between contenders are concerned I've allocated the home team 4 points for winning and the away team 1 point for getting within seven points. Other games I've used my good judgement as to whether bonus points are earned or not. It's sort of a "par" assessment, so you can work out what your team needs to do better, to do better.
     
    Overall very small changes can make a very big difference.
     
    Conference winners
     
    Lions 42+4+5+5 = 56    (Sharks (H), Kings (H), Jaguares (A))
    Crusaders 45+1+5+4 = 55  (Chiefs (A), Rebels (H), Canes (H))
    Waratahs 34+5+4+4 = 47  (Sunwolves (A), Hurricanes (H), Blues (A))
    Stormers 36+1+4+5 = 46  (Rebels (A), Force (A), Kings (H))
     
    Wildcards
     
    Highlanders 38+5+5+4 = 52  (Kings (A), Jaguares (A), Chiefs (H))
    Chiefs 42+4+5+1 = 52 (Crusaders (H), Reds (A), Highlanders (A))
    Sharks 35+1+5+5 = 46 (Lions (A), Cheetahs (H), Sunwolves (H))
    Hurricanes 40+4+1+1 = 46 (Blues (H), Waratahs (A), Crusaders (A))
     
    Others
    Brumbies 34+5+1+5 = 45 (Reds (H), Blues (A), Force (H))
    Bulls 32+4+5+4 = 45 (Jaguares (A), Sunwolves (H), Cheetahs (A))
     
    I've backed the Highlanders with two shithouse teams to play to overturn the modest points difference advantage the Chiefs presently hold over them.
     
    I've picked the Waratahs to beat the Blues, but the Brumbies to lose to the Blues, based on my assessment that the Waratahs are actually a significantly better team than the Brumbies.
     
    Play-off matchups
     
    Lions vs Hurricanes
    Crusaders vs Sharks
    Waratahs vs Chiefs
    Stormers vs Highlanders
     
    Canes might back themselves to tip over the Lions again (who have found some rich form but will be travelling back from Argentina)
    I'd be happy to see Crusaders playing an SA team at home.
    Chiefs probably won't be that pleased to go to Sydney again.
    Highlanders will have already done a lot of recent travel, but they'd be good enough to beat the shithouse Stormers.
     
    Crusaders - Canes
    Tahs - Highlanders
     
    Crusaders - Tahs
     
    CRUSADERS
     
    You Bewdy!!!!  🙂



  • Can't argue with that chris! You're a wise man



  • Waratahs 34+5+4+4 = 47  (Sunwolves (A), Hurricanes (H), Blues (A))
    ...
    Brumbies 34+5+1+5 = 45 (Reds (H), Blues (A), Force (H))

    I don't think these two things can come together, TBH. If the Tahs have the game to win at Eden Park, sure as shit the Ponies do as well.
     
    Number of wins sees the Brumbies finish ahead of the Tahs if they're equal on points. Think the Ponies will sneak the conference win, the Tahs might make it into wildcards.



  • It would be tough if a New Zealand team doesn't finish first overall. That Crusaders vs Chiefs game in Fiji is going to end up being huge.
     
    I reckon the Hurricanes could go to South Africa and knock out the ions but I think that would be our final. Winning 3 tough games in a row, all away, would be too much for us.



  • I believe any of the top 4 N.Z teams can take it out but whoever holds that top spot will have a big advantage and will be favourites. Massive month of July ahead. Looking forward to it.



  • Still very open indeed and difficult to pick a winner yet. Waratahs are looking like the most serious challenges to the top 4 NZ teams for the title, but don't write off the Lions or the Sharks yet. Lots of twist and turns to come in this one.



  • Lions must be pretty firm for top spot now (with Crusaders falling over in Suva).



  • ok so the conference system looks a bit flawed with 3 of the 4 nz teams having to play all games away in the playoffs yet the justification for this geographic based system is that it is supposed to reduce teams' travel burden?
     
    BS. take the Highlanders for example: they have to fly to South Africa this week, then next week fly across the globe to Argentina, then the following week fly back to NZ for their final regular game. Then the week after that they get to fly back to South Africa for a QF then fly back to Australasia where they would still have to win an away SF and away final to retain the title. pretty tall order methinks.
     
    i miss the simple round robin super 14. time to change this to a 2 tier comp that everyone understands with promotion-relegation. there is going to be mega travel anyway so get rid of these lopsided games and playing some teams twice and others not at all, and stopping the whole comp for a month. this needs fixing.



  • Lions are now on 47 pts so should finish at the top. The Jags in BA could be a potential banana skin game but I doubt it.
     
    The NZ conference is really tight:
    Chiefs            46
    Crusaders      45
    Hurricanes     44
    Highlanders   43



  • the Jaguares are up 15-6 over the Bulls at the break in pissing rain, maybe the Jaguares might be better off after the break from the time in camp with the Pumas?
     
    I have them 12 and under to finish my multi



  • the Jaguares are up 15-6 over the Bulls at the break in pissing rain, maybe the Jaguares might be better off after the break from the time in camp with the Pumas?
     
    I have them 12 and under to finish my multi

    ... and win 29-11 sorry TR



  • yeah I know I saw....:( 
     
    woulda got even better odds had I gone 13+, Bulls were pretty clueless, Creevy was superb



  • Lions are now on 47 pts so should finish at the top. The Jags in BA could be a potential banana skin game but I doubt it.
     
    The NZ conference is really tight:
    Chiefs            46
    Crusaders      45
    Hurricanes     44
    Highlanders   43

    It still means that the Lions will have to travel back to South Africa for their playoff game from Argentina.



  • Possibly been discussed and also not sure where to put this so this thread as good as any.
    I was looking into this "thing" that Auckland are the closest home game for the Jagulars. Couldn't see it as surely Africa is closer. Well yes it is. 6,500km to Cape Town as the crow flies as opposed to 10,000 to Auckland.
    But the planes don't fly as the crow flies. They fly via Sao Paulo which means flights are 17 hours against 13 to Auckland.
    It's probably been discussed (I recall some drama for the Chiefs getting to BA from SA) but it's the first time I've bothered to work it out.



  • But the planes don't fly as the crow flies. They fly via Sao Paulo which means flights are 17 hours against 13 to Auckland.

    But less jetlag
     
    Argentina GMT -3
    NZ GMT +12
    SA GMT +2
     
    So only 5 hours difference SA Arg, but 9 hours NZ ARG.  That's why the trip is easier - it ain't just the travel
     
    Edit; and also why the ABs don't lose as much - TRC is now set up so SA ARG is the only back to back weekend.  When we lost to Deans, we played in consecutive weekends Hamiltron, Joburg and then Melbourne.  Surprise, we lost the last game.



  • If the play-offs started next weekend and the current table determined who plays who:
     
    Lions v Sharks
    Chiefs v Highlanders
    Stormers v Hurricanes
    Brumbies v Crusaders



  • If the play-offs started next weekend and the current table determined who plays who:
     
    Lions v Sharks
    Chiefs v Highlanders
    Stormers v Hurricanes
    Brumbies v Crusaders

    A single home game for NZ teams? Absolutely ridiculous :mocking:



  • It still means that the Lions will have to travel back to South Africa for their playoff game from Argentina.

    Maybe offset by the team they would play also having to travel to Jo'burg if it isn't the Sharks.



  • Lions held serve this morning and went back top. Chiefs are locked into the playoffs along with the lions. Chiefs can finish 1, 2, 5, 6 or 7. Canes probably the biggest risk of losing amongst nz teams tonight and tomorrow but I'm not holding my breath.



  • Of course saders locked in too when ponies lost last night. Celebrated by annihilating it in that training run against the rebels.