Another World War imminent?



  • https://medium.com/@theonlytoby/history-tells-us-what-will-happen-next-with-brexit-trump-a3fefd154714#.8cqhpyxgi
     
    Not behind a paywall so I won't bother quoting it all here. Just the bits I found most interesting:
     
    So zooming out, we humans have a habit of going into phases of mass destruction, generally self imposed to some extent or another. This handy list shows all the wars over time. Wars are actually the norm for humans, but every now and then something big comes along. I am interested in the Black Death, which devastated Europe. The opening of Boccaccio’s Decameron describes Florence in the grips of the Plague. It is as beyond imagination as the Somme, Hiroshima, or the Holocaust. I mean, you quite literally can’t put yourself there and imagine what it was like. For those in the midst of the Plague it must have felt like the end of the world.
     
    But a defining feature of humans is their resilience. To us now it seems obvious that we survived the Plague, but to people at the time it must have seemed incredible that their society continued afterwards. Indeed, many takes on the effects of the Black Death are that it had a positive impact in the long term. Well summed up here: “By targeting frail people of all ages, and killing them by the hundreds of thousands within an extremely short period of time, the Black Death might have represented a strong force of natural selection and removed the weakest individuals on a very broad scale within Europe,“ â€¦In addition, the Black Death significantly changed the social structure of some European regions. Tragic depopulation created the shortage of working people. This shortage caused wages to rise. Products prices fell too. Consequently, standards of living increased. For instance, people started to consume more food of higher quality.”
     
     
    Never really thought about it like that - survival of the fittest... or luckiest, maybe...
     
     
    My point is that this is a cycle. It happens again and again, but as most people only have a 50–100 year historical perspective they don’t see that it’s happening again. As the events that led to the First World War unfolded, there were a few brilliant minds who started to warn that something big was wrong, that the web of treaties across Europe could lead to a war, but they were dismissed as hysterical, mad, or fools, as is always the way, and as people who worry about Putin, Brexit, and Trump are dismissed now.
     
    Then after the War to end all Wars, we went and had another one. Again, for a historian it was quite predictable. Lead people to feel they have lost control of their country and destiny, people look for scapegoats, a charismatic leader captures the popular mood, and singles out that scapegoat. He talks in rhetoric that has no detail, and drums up anger and hatred. Soon the masses start to move as one, without any logic driving their actions, and the whole becomes unstoppable.
     
    That was Hitler, but it was also Mussolini, Stalin, Putin, Mugabe, and so many more. Mugabe is a very good case in point. ...
     
    Goes on to talk about Mugabe's rise, the subsequent ousting of white farmers, and destruction of economy, and relates it to the Communist regimes in both the USSR and China in regards to their starvation metrics.
     
    There is a long section on a theoretical start to another world war in the wake of Brexit, leading to destabilisation in Europe as Italy and France also leave. A fractured EU = fractured NATO and Putin makes his move in the Baltic states through funding far-right activism etc.
     
    Within that was another thing I'd not thought about before:
     
    The EU, for all its many awful faults, has prevented a war in Europe for longer than ever before. 
     
    Correlation/Causation aside, is that right? It has been 71 years since the end of WW2 but do we count the Yugoslav Wars in that?
     
    The last paragraph is fairly layered, but has some chilling thoughts in it:
     
    What can we do? Well, again, looking back, probably not much. The liberal intellectuals are always in the minority. See Clay Shirky’s Twitter Storm on this point. The people who see that open societies, being nice to other people, not being racist, not fighting wars, is a better way to live, they generally end up losing these fights. They don’t fight dirty. They are terrible at appealing to the populace. They are less violent, so end up in prisons, camps, and graves. We need to beware not to become divided (see: Labour party), we need to avoid getting lost in arguing through facts and logic, and counter the populist messages of passion and anger with our own similar messages. We need to understand and use social media. We need to harness a different fear. Fear of another World War nearly stopped World War 2, but didn’t. We need to avoid our own echo chambers. Trump and Putin supporters don’t read the Guardian, so writing there is just reassuring our friends. We need to find a way to bridge from our closed groups to other closed groups, try to cross the ever widening social divides.
     
     
    And he's a little self-deprecating 🙂
     
    (Perhaps I’m just writing this so I can be remembered by history as one of the people who saw it coming.)



  • LOL dammit! You bastards!!! :lol:



  • The eu prevented wars? FFs.
     
    We've been outsourcing our wars since ww2 and will probably continue to do so.



  • I think it is very difficult to gauge to what extent the EU has been responsible for maintaining peace and stability in Europe since WW2 and to what extent it can attributed to other factors:  western Europe having a common enemy in the Soviet Union, NATO, lack of will amongst Europeans for more bloodshed, unfettered nationalism being discredited, the disarmament of Germany, post war prosperity and so on.



  • That piece seems to ignore the current causes of resentment completely. I am sure a World War could happen, but it is simplistic nonsense to blame those who don't want to be subjugated. If there is a world war I predict it will be caused not by Brexit, but by thoseon the west who have followed a policy of appeasement and surrender for decades building up a powder keg. Some of us have been predicting a disaster in Europe for a long time, we are being proven right on nearly a daily basis.
    So I guess to will able to post 'I told you so'?
    And what has Trump specifically got to do with causing a war? US presidents have overseen wars in very recent times. 
     
    As for Europe, the theme seems to be that the way to avoid war is to simply allow the strong or determined to do whatever they want to be in control. Appeasement by very definition.
     
    If Britain wanting to control its own borders and be an independent country like Canada, US , NZ and Australia... causes a world war... blaiming Britain and those who supported Brexit seems a bit unfair.. What are the rules here? Stay as part of the European empire or there will be war? There is a word for the situation...



  • Not sure he was really looking at the underlying issues as his main point, just framing a discussion around how conflict arises, and quickly, from events that are a series of small triggers.
    I took his angle as examining a possible scenario, from an anthropological view point. Not stating that it is the most likely outcome or even looking at what the root causes were.
    Brexit vote has happened - so what if it goes to the next step? And then other EU nations start thinking about it?



  • The West has no stomach for war. People would freak if they lost their WiFi connection for a couple of hours.
    Most European countries are now also so broke that they wouldn't be able to fight for more than a couple of days.
    If war does come it will be because of overreach by Russia and China not fucking Brexit.



  • If war does come it will be because of overreach by Russia and China not fucking Brexit.

    Which I think was mostly his point. Brexit alone wouldn't do this. It might simply be one point in a series of events - both before and after Brexit, including overreach by Putin to boost his own popularity - that leads to this.



  • You must be doing him a disservice surely? I dont think saying that the right collection of small things lead to war could possibly be the point?
     
    And why did he mention Trump? Brexit specifically... but nothing about Islamic appeasement,mass immigration,  the flawed EU model? etc  Unless he did... I didnt read the link, just your snippets.
     
    From my readings, it is just another left wing beat up of people disagreeing with them.



  • we need to avoid getting lost in arguing through facts and logic, and counter the populist messages of passion and anger with our own similar messages.

    Holy shit balls....
     
    And I don't think anyone is an intellectual liberal that wants to avoid using logic and facts in a debate. In fact I would argue that the author is not an intellectual liberal at all, but a regressive leftie.



  • The eu prevented wars? FFs.
     
    We've been outsourcing our wars since ww2 and will probably continue to do so.

    i wouldn't say it has prevented wars, but closer trade relations and freedom of movement do lead to people from different countries knowing more about each other and consequently being less likely to be able to be convinced of 'us vs them'.



  • Never really thought about it like that - survival of the fittest... or luckiest, maybe...

    this is related to one of my pet hates nick, so imma have a wee rant.
     
    for humans, the fittest and best of us are not those with the strongest immune systems, but those with the best brains. the plague, and anything else like that, does not discriminate on that basis, so it is a disaster from an evolutionary point of view.
    the thing that shits me is that you occasionally hear people making the argument that treating diseases / health problems is making the human species weaker, which is totally specious. i think it's pretty clear that humanity would not be in better shape if einstein, newton, jenner, the curies, faraday, darwin, pasteur, tesla, edison, hawking et al had died as children from something like asthma.



  • this is related to one of my pet hates nick, so imma have a wee rant.
     
    for humans, the fittest and best of us are not those with the strongest immune systems, but those with the best brains. the plague, and anything else like that, does not discriminate on that basis, so it is a disaster from an evolutionary point of view.
    the thing that shits me is that you occasionally hear people making the argument that treating diseases / health problems is making the human species weaker, which is totally specious. i think it's pretty clear that humanity would not be in better shape if einstein, newton, jenner, the curies, faraday, darwin, pasteur, tesla, edison, hawking et al had died as children from something like asthma.

    Actually you make a good point - so I'lls ay "luckiest" in that case. Pandemics are shit. EDIT and non-discriminatory.



  • Fascinating article Nick, interesting how you can find cycles everywhere. One of my family works in venture capital stuff, his boss saw the last collapse coming and got their team to batten down the hatches ready. All his younger staff thought he was just being paranoid but within the year shit happened and they were cashed up and ready to capitalise



  • Fascinating article Nick, interesting how you can find cycles everywhere. One of my family works in venture capital stuff, his boss saw the last collapse coming and got their team to batten down the hatches ready. All his younger staff thought he was just being paranoid but within the year shit happened and they were cashed up and ready to capitalise

    Would be interesting to see what happens if one of those pieces doesn't fall into place e.g. Article 50 is executed byt then somehow withdrawn. Trump doesn't win - though that doesn't necessarily mean Clinton is any better... just less of a fucking cuntstack I supposed.
     
    I'm just sick of the fucking hatred and pigeon holing and bullshit. Stop being fluffybunnys and just start being good fluffybunnys.



  • I read the full piece on-line.  TBH it sounded a bit like Winger.  The guys what a philosophy professor or something? Can't remember but whatever his background has no relevance, so I was a bit bemused as to why it was published.
     
    To me it was pompous and a bit grasping at straws to try and prove his point(s).
     
    Canefan - I wonder how often your rellies boss battened down the hatches and nothing happened...



  • I'm just sick of the fucking hatred and pigeon holing and bullshit. Stop being fluffybunnys and just start being good fluffybunnys.

    A good step towards that goal then would be for people to stop attacking Trump supporters, Brexit supporters etc etc. It seems nowadays tolerance is preached but not actually actioned. Your article is a great example, the pomposity and self righteousness is incredibly confrontational, the whole article is just one long 'Fuck You' to anyone who does not agree with the political leanings of the author. In fact to use your words the article was pigeon holing and bullshit and the author being a fluffy bunny.
     
    And for the record, I think tolerance is a bit of a fools gold, the reality is that that you are not going to be very tolerant of people who treat you like shit, do things you dont like or who are just twats.



  • Canefan - I wonder how often your rellies boss battened down the hatches and nothing happened...

    Considering his investors are a who's who in NZ business circles I'd say he knows a bit about what he is doing



  • A good step towards that goal then would be for people to stop attacking Trump supporters, Brexit supporters etc etc. It seems nowadays tolerance is preached but not actually actioned. Your article is a great example, the pomposity and self righteousness is incredibly confrontational, the whole article is just one long 'Fuck You' to anyone who does not agree with the political leanings of the author. In fact to use your words the article was pigeon holing and bullshit and the author being a fluffy bunny.
     
    And for the record, I think tolerance is a bit of a fools gold, the reality is that that you are not going to be very tolerant of people who treat you like shit, do things you dont like or who are just twats.

    Sorry are you trying to preach tolerance?  I read your posts and most people who do not subscribe to your world view are "apologists" or your favourite "regressive leftie" or regressive liberal fluffybunnies



  • Holy shit balls....
     
    And I don't think anyone is an intellectual liberal that wants to avoid using logic and facts in a debate. In fact I would argue that the author is not an intellectual liberal at all, but a regressive leftie.



  • Sorry are you trying to preach tolerance?  I read your posts and most people who do not subscribe to your world view are "apologists" or your favourite "regressive leftie" or regressive liberal fluffybunnies

    Read my post again. The last sentence in particular might assist you.



  • Considering his investors are a who's who in NZ business circles I'd say he knows a bit about what he is doing

    Wasn't suggesting he doesn't but no one ever gets it right every time and for every story about someone with a premonition about getting off the doomed flight there's 100 embarrassed fools who didn't get away on their holiday



  • Holy shit balls....
     
    And I don't think anyone is an intellectual liberal that wants to avoid using logic and facts in a debate. In fact I would argue that the author is not an intellectual liberal at all, but a regressive lefti

    And I stand by that, saying that logic and facts should not be used in a debate of ideas is indicative....



  • Wasn't suggesting he doesn't but no one ever gets it right every time and for every story about someone with a premonition about getting off the doomed flight there's 100 embarrassed fools who didn't get away on their holiday

    And plenty of people predicted the last crash.. not a huge number.. but the next challenge was getting the actual timing right.



  • Wasn't suggesting he doesn't but no one ever gets it right every time and for every story about someone with a premonition about getting off the doomed flight there's 100 embarrassed fools who didn't get away on their holidayOh for sure. Experience just gives you the ability to potentially learn from more mistakes. But it doesn't stop you from making new ones 😉



  • A good step towards that goal then would be for people to stop attacking Trump supporters, Brexit supporters etc etc. It seems nowadays tolerance is preached but not actually actioned. Your article is a great example, the pomposity and self righteousness is incredibly confrontational, the whole article is just one long 'Fuck You' to anyone who does not agree with the political leanings of the author. In fact to use your words the article was pigeon holing and bullshit and the author being a fluffy bunny.
     
    And for the record, I think tolerance is a bit of a fools gold, the reality is that that you are not going to be very tolerant of people who treat you like shit, do things you dont like or who are just twats.

    You must be kidding right... I'm sure this was meant as a joke.
     
    This statement is so much like the Christian Fundies in the US who keep talking about a "war on christianity".
     
    You surely must see that the instigators of most of the attacks have been the Trump and Brexit supporters who saw the debate as an excuse to let lose all of their ignorance and prejudices. They see that behavior from Trump and the leaders of the Exit movement and they saw it is a mandate to let lose their own bile and venom.
     
    Then when people call them out on their bullshit, they act like the victim.



  • Was watching this a few nights ago. Also dam interesting...
     
     

    Putin is not a madman, he is a smart so-and-so, but his interests are in opposition to the US.  So it would make me nervous that he is keen for Trump to win the election



  • And I stand by that, saying that logic and facts should not be used in a debate of ideas is indicative....

    have you actually read it now then? because if so then you are not understanding that point. it is pretty clear from the context that that statement is saying that the rhetoric of people like trump - scaremongering, and generally not using facts or logic - isn't being defeated by the use of facts and logic. i.e. 'his' side needs to fight the same way.
     
    it's fine to disagree with the points in the article, there's lots i disagree with - but you're just taking a soundbite out of context to make a specious point.



  • You must be kidding right... I'm sure this was meant as a joke.
     
    This statement is so much like the Christian Fundies in the US who keep talking about a "war on christianity".
     
    You surely must see that the instigators of most of the attacks have been the Trump and Brexit supporters who saw the debate as an excuse to let lose all of their ignorance and prejudices. They see that behavior from Trump and the leaders of the Exit movement and they saw it is a mandate to let lose their own bile and venom.
     
    Then when people call them out on their bullshit, they act like the victim.

    Not at all. It is all a matter of perspective.  I think there is very little tolerance from any side nowadays. 
    You seriously think that there is tolerance towards people who support Trump? You just called them ignorant and prejudiced... people who loosed vile and venom... and who spoke bullshit. if that is what yuo think.. fair enough.. and your views are held by many others. But it is the very opposite of tolerance. And indeed those whom you attack probably see it as the prejudiced ignorance... bile and venom.. bullshit even. But of course you would deny that as you consider yourself correct. But so do they.



  • have you actually read it now then? because if so then you are not understanding that point. it is pretty clear from the context that that statement is saying that the rhetoric of people like trump - scaremongering, and generally not using facts or logic - isn't being defeated by the use of facts and logic. i.e. 'his' side needs to fight the same way.
     
    it's fine to disagree with the points in the article, there's lots i disagree with - but you're just taking a soundbite out of context to make a specious point.

    I have read it yes. And yes I understand the point thanks.  And I still think it is a slanted argument using slanted points of reference. Maybe facts and logic are not winning the argument because those facts and logic are not correct? And are in fact just ideology?
     
    But ok... you can think that the way to defeat bad ideas is to avoid facts and logic. 
     
    Scaremongering? Every side is scaremongering! have seen the comments by Clinton and her supporters about what would happen if Trump won?



  • I have moved posts to US election thread.





  • The thing is if we are talking about a world war, I get how that can start in 2 places - the South China Sea, and the Baltic states.
     
    Its a very short join the dots to get from either of those to WW3
     
    What I don't get is how you go from appeasemernt of ISIS to world war? World war against who? Russia and the US are co-ordinating in Syria against IS, China has zero involvement. Europe & the US are not threatened at all, nor is Russia, certainly not in a "we could all be destroyed" point of view as in WW1 & WW2. Even in the middle East Israel is currently co-operating with Jordan, Egypt & Saudi (!)
     
    The actual threat posted by radical islam is tiny. Spectacular, but tiny.
     
    In contrast its incredibly easy to go from Trump presidency - recognise the annexing of Crimea - announce US will only support Nato if Nato spends the 2% on defence it commited to - Nato very much does not - Putin does to Estonia what he did to Ukraine - UK jet shoots down Russian jet in Lithuanian airspace etc... to major geopolitical conflict
     
    Same in the South China Sea with China attacking the Phillipines. Can anyone step from "appease Islam a bit" to "Nukes in the air!"?
     
    Both world wars kicked off because a country thought it could get away with a limited attack but treaty cascades broadened it. So anything that makes treaties look shakey is a bad thing. IE Germany calculated that the UK would not actually honor its treaty obligations, as it had backed away from conflict over German rearmament, the Rhineland, Austria etc. If China or Russia believe the US or Western europe will not honor its treatly obligations those threaties become a potential flashpoint.



  • Back to this:

    Russian Ambassador to Turkey shot and killed in Ankara at some kind of exhibition. Early translations of the shooter's last rant (shot and killed by security forces) relate to Aleppo. Not sure beyond that.

    Peep was a policeman in a suit. Not sure if he was there on duty, or just turned up randomly.



  • Turkeys been slowly going feral Muslim since the goat fucker took over.

    In other news a truck has crashed into a market in Germany killing nine people.



  • @jegga said in Another World War "imminent"?:

    Turkeys been slowly going feral Muslim since the goat fucker took over.

    In other news a truck has crashed into a market in Germany killing nine people.

    Yeah some interesting messages coming out about this as the media scramble to be first with the breaking news.

    The Guardian is reporting the passenger in the truck was killed at the scene, but its unclear how. Also listed this:

    The lorry was registered to a company in Stettin, Poland. It was on its way back to Poland, having started its journey in Italy. It was due to unload in Berlin where the driver was due to have a break.
    The head of the company has said the registered driver was his cousin. He’s said he’d put his hand in the fire that his cousin would not have been behind this attack. The strong suspicion is that the vehicle was hijacked at some point during its journey.

    Hijacking would surely have raised some alarm bells? As for putting his hand in the fire: you might think they were never like that but then find out their apartment is drowning in ISIS posters.



  • Putin will probably be offering support to the Gulanists after this if he isn't already doing it .

    Has Merkel said something to dismiss the truck crash as an isolated incident from a lone wolf yet?



  • @jegga said in Another World War imminent?:

    Putin will probably be offering support to the Gulanists after this if he isn't already doing it .

    Has Merkel said something to dismiss the truck crash as an isolated incident from a lone wolf yet?

    She needs to say something ASAP before anyone links this to Islam.



  • LOL



  • Out on a limb prediction:

    This was a lone wolf with mental issues. The fact that he's Muslim is purely coincidental and it could just as easily have been a Buddhist.


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