@Machpants Aside from the disappointment of not being able to actually attend, this isn't a terrible outcome for NZ. Any Covid related risk is born by NSW but NZRU still get a slice of the gate receipts.

@NTA This makes perfect sense from a Kiwi perspective but little to none from an Australian perspective.

Many Australian fans at this stage want to ditch SR altogether and start from scratch (verging on a majority). So any proposed TT comp is already starting at a low base of support. We are then required to cut two teams (presumably excluding Twiggy's Force over cutting one of the more traditional franchises) to be allowed to participate in what will effectively be an exercise in All Black production. I'm failing to see the incentive.

Most people argue that one of the biggest contributing factors to the decline of SR in Aus is the lack of local derbies/home games and local content. A 5/3 split will represent a marginal improvement over the current format - but will cut 2/5ths of the Australian market from the comp. A poor trade off.

It's no sure thing that cutting two teams will magically make the other three stronger, either. Plenty of players will simply leave for Japan or Europe and the financial and marketing damage done in the process would, in my opinion, be a terminal move for the remaining Australian teams - before a ball is even kicked.

The inconsistency of suggesting that we must cut two teams but the comp must also include a PI team is also pretty frustrating. What are the odds of a PI team (after the majority of the funds get siphoned off by the likes of Killer Keane) actually being competitive?

Finally, Twiggy has regularly expressed an interest in pumping considerable investment into a competition with a single management body that is run in it's own interests (rather than being primarily run for the purposes of Wallaby and AB production). There have also been expressions of interest from PE firms in the US. McLellan has expressed an interest in releasing control of the second tier of Australian rugby to private equity. Given the rather enormous trade-offs involved in us participating in an 8 (or 9) team TT comp - why wouldn't we pursue this option?

Word is a NZ only comp is not financially viable so i don't get why a string of senior NZ figures are trying to strong arm Aus into a format that makes absolutely no sense to them?

@nzzp the reality is NZ need teams to play and in a Covid fucked world Australia is the most likely (and probably the only realistic) source of those teams. This gives Australia some leverage, though Australia need NZ just as much.

The 'competitiveness' argument is bullshit as evidenced by NZRU's posturing for a Japanese/Pasifika team. Yep, those teams will really bring the high quality NZ so desire.

It's all bullshit posturing and ego. The reality is both countries need each other and the simplest solution (at least for next year) is to incorporate the 10 already existing teams most likely to be able to play each other into a single competition.

Financial limitations and travel restrictions make anything else highly unlikely to be viable. It's worth keeping in mind that 2021 is just going to be another stop-gap, regardless of what is agreed.

If ego stops a TT going ahead, well both nations deserve what they get.

@shark I agree with this. I think there are loads of latent fans that just switched off because Rugby management in Aus couldnt run a piss up in a brothel and it's been run into the ground. If we could:

a) get our best players back;
b) get the bigger games on FTA with effective marketing;
c) win the occasional thing; and
d) deport Phil Kearns

the crowds would come back, and quickly.

Only 20 years ago that the Bled was played in front of 110k.

@Chris-B It was post the 2015 WC which saw our biggest player exodus. To premise the future of an entire competition on a bad patch of about 2 years seems ridiculous, though our results and performance were terrible in that period.

Our next crop of players look far more promising, outperforming their NZ counterparts so far. Raelene put a lot of work into securing our talent before it got poached by loig and results had looked to be improving this season.

@Snowy My point is that the dip in form post RWC15 was due to the player drain and that prior to that results had been reasonable. Following that, RC did work to secure talent pathways which is already reaping dividends and results had been improving. Hell, even the much derided Rebels beat the Highlanders away this year. The Brumbies also knocking off the in-form Chiefs.

To predicate the structure of the entire competition on the lack of performance post RWC15 would be silly, IMO. Particularly when the other 4 NZ teams have themselves not demonstrated that they can compete with the Crusaders on a regular basis anyway.

Im basically pointing out that the prevailing assumption that 'Aussie teams are all garbage' and 'NZ teams are amazing and constantly competitive' is pretty flawed.

@booboo NRZ seemed to conclude pretty early that a 5 team comp is not sustainable - so they need some additional teams. Obviously they just want the Tahs/Brumbies/Reds without having to worry about the Rebels or Force.

Issue is, it would be suicide for RA to exclude both those teams again. So they won't budge on the 5 team minimum. Hence the deadlock.

Both countries need each other in some capacity and both unions have ego's the size of celestial bodies.

In terms of market size - yeah the Australian market is currently smaller. But NZ is at saturation. It can't get any bigger. Rugby has previously been bigger in Australia and clearly has the capacity to improve with some half decent management (good luck finding that though).

@Kiwiwomble Yeah but then you are limiting your audience and any potential growth. It was tremendously damaging to the game in Australia to cut the Force. They were the fastest growing area of rugby in terms of viewership and grassroots and boast the only billionaire benefactor around in the Southern Hemisphere. Sure they hadnt achieved anything particularly amazing yet but, as you say, these things take decades not years.

@Billy-Tell Australia won the comp twice with 5 teams.

@Stargazer I doubt they'd manufacture direct quotes though. That's treading into defamation territory.

@shark cant you cross the border if your residence is in Qld? . Just have to quarantine.

All squads will do two weeks quarantine in a 'bubble' - the same thing the AFL and NRL have been doing.

The border is likely to be open by the time the RC kicks off.

As for public sentiment? They lost that months ago.

As if NZ have the patience to make a Blues duplicate work. It's a 20 year+ exercise. You lot are already throwing your toys out the pram at having to play the Rebels and Force.

@Machpants Aside from the disappointment of not being able to actually attend, this isn't a terrible outcome for NZ. Any Covid related risk is born by NSW but NZRU still get a slice of the gate receipts.

@mariner4life righto buddy. I have been trying to engage meaningfully, and you are in fact acting like an arrogant kiwi.

@shark I didn't mean to delete it.

I said that i don't think that not being able to be the top team in a city means that the sport is not worth pursuing at all in that area. Just have to accept it's going to be small.

But, regardless, it still does not contradict the reasons that i gave as to why RA would never agree to cut another team. I mean, how could a sport with 5 teams averaging 50k a game x 2 a week cut one of the teams contributing to it? madness. RA would not survive another cut. Hell you could argue that RA going bankrupt might be better for rugby in the long long run. But RA itself would never facilitate it.

@shark nah - they'll never be the biggest team in Melbourne. Doesn't mean they arent worthwhile.

But even if they should be cut, this doesnt contradict any of the reasons I gave as to why they wont.

@KiwiMurph That's a way higher percentage streaming than i had heard previously, which is interesting.

It will be interesting to see how the semi-final and final of SRAu compare with those figures.

And, yes, i believe following Covid the TV deal for A-league was renegotiated from 50 odd to 25 odd million PA.

@KiwiMurph It's not misleading when talking about the value to Fox - which is what we are discussing.

What do Fox care about FTA figures?

@mariner4life fucken hell, i never said anything like that? There's loads wrong - the majority of it self inflicted by RA. I've never said anything other than this. Fox are being dicks though, and cutting a team won't fix the underlying issues.

@Kiwiwomble Just as an example: 'OzTam reported the A-League’s season restart saw just 12,000 viewers on Fox Sports for the Friday night matchup, followed by 9,000 the next day for the second matchup on Fox Sports.'

https://ministryofsport.com.au/a-league-ratings-are-disappointing/

Even the Rebels have been pulling 40-50k plus an additional (rumoured, no official figures) 25% -40% on Kayo.

I think the Semi-final attendance figure will be telling. It's reportedly open to 25k people. TV figures for the final will also be interesting. A-league final got about 84k supposedly.