Still wondering about the polling industry? Beginning to think they’re next to useless
Australia has become less homogeneous. Given the massive demographic changes in the past twenties years polling has become more challenging. Also let's not forget the vintage Newspoll is called the Two Party Preferred model and preference flow has become more strategic and complicated by independents in recent times.
Outside of Labor's (somewhat) underperformance in Victoria is there any aspect of the result that in isolation is surprising? Between Adnani and the franking credits policies almost all the Coalition overperformance is explained.