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@Rembrandt said in US Politics:
Trump certainly has a style of his own. So far he has been pretty successful. My money is on China backing down here.
The economist chappy also felt that the trade war was unlikely to happen, his (inferred) view was that neither country wants it or can afford it. He likened it to the weigh in before a boxing match with much posturing but in this instance a complete reluctance for either party to step into the ring. The tariffs imposed though would suggest Trump is prepared. Time will tell I guess, but the thing here is that he doesn't have to be prepared to get in the ring, he only has to appear that he's prepared to do so.
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@Catogrande said in US Politics:
@Rembrandt said in US Politics:
Trump certainly has a style of his own. So far he has been pretty successful. My money is on China backing down here.
The economist chappy also felt that the trade war was unlikely to happen, his (inferred) view was that neither country wants it or can afford it. He likened it to the weigh in before a boxing match with much posturing but in this instance a complete reluctance for either party to step into the ring. The tariffs imposed though would suggest Trump is prepared. Time will tell I guess, but the thing here is that he doesn't have to be prepared to get in the ring, he only has to appear that he's prepared to do so.
The economist chappy sounds like most economists.. a fucking idiot who is closer to have an arts degree than anything actually useful. The vast majority of economists are either partisal political hacks or dishonest hacks for hire. They use statistics to undermine/promote to instruction. That isnt my opinion, that is a fact. The amount of times there predictions go REALLY wrong is staggering, not a little but wrong, but REALLY wrong. There only real skills are
1/ Manipulatng actual data but selectively to paint a picture as required. Lies damn lies and statistics
2/ Getting away with being drastically wrong time and time an time and time again and still having many think they are credible. No other field.. except journalists get away with that... and that similarity isnt a co-incidence.
As for this clown economists analysis of the tariffs, it fails the very first smell test.
The US will win this trade war, it is over before it has even started. The US is the customer, they are Chinas biggest customer. Consumer countries always win in situations like this, look at how NZ bends over and takes it up the ass for China over trade. China can buy our stuff elsewhere.. we cannot conjure up more customers easily.
The US can and will find alternate suppliers easily, nothing much China produces can not be found elsewhere. Developing countries with an appetite for more customer for generally cheap shite are not rare in the world.
The idea that the US consumers will pay for these tariffs in any meaningful way is laughable. The US suppliers who export to China will pay a price, but not consumers in any real way.
And this revisionist bullshit that Trump is somehow responsible in any way for the agreement falling over shows a complete and utter lack of understanding over what happened.. and just more orange man bad lazy analysis/propoganda. -
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in US Politics:
The US can and will find alternate suppliers easily, nothing much China produces can not be found elsewhere. Developing countries with an appetite for more customer for generally cheap shite are not rare in the world.
The idea that the US consumers will pay for these tariffs in any meaningful way is laughable.The same price, at an adequate volume, with the necessary shipping infrastructure? I have strong doubts about that. If any of those are not true the cost will be passed on to the consumer.
Even if your assertion is true, there would be a period of time for a changeover to occur. In the meantime the cost would be passed on to the consumer -
@Duluth said in US Politics:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in US Politics:
The US can and will find alternate suppliers easily, nothing much China produces can not be found elsewhere. Developing countries with an appetite for more customer for generally cheap shite are not rare in the world.
The idea that the US consumers will pay for these tariffs in any meaningful way is laughable.The same price, at an adequate volume, with the necessary shipping infrastructure? I have strong doubts about that. If any of those are not true the cost will be passed on to the consumer.
Even if your assertion is true, there would be a period of time for a changeover to occur. In the meantime the cost would be passed on to the consumerNope, the infrastructure is already in place for most of this. Shipping in particular will walk in the park with it. Can you think of things that China produces that other countries cannot easily cover and produce for? And even if you get some resellers that want to pass it on to consumers, how will they when other options exist and will be much cheaper already on the shelves.
Lets talk some specifics. How about t-shirts? You think a consumer is going to pay 25% more for a made in China t-shirt instead of a made in India t-shirt? You think re sellers are just going to on charge this? Seriously? Put yourself in Walmarts shoes... would you add the cost to consumer or change suppliers? You would charge a 25% premium for something made in China? Or just change suppliers? No offence but I dont think you realise how mobile these industries are in regards to supply and what massive capacity exists outside of China.There will obviously be some impact on consumers, but nothing that will really be noticed, and def not compared to the hurt China will feel.
But I am happy to have a wager and just wait and see. China will back down before we ever really get to see. But that will be proof in itself. Chinas problem is the the election is not until the end of 2020, they needed this November and hope that he lost and Biden won.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in US Politics:
Can you think of things that China produces that other countries cannot easily cover and produce for?
Of course not.. but at what price and how much cost/time is involved in changing suppliers
It's certainly not a 'laughable' idea that there will be costs to US consumers. The zero cost claim has been made about tariffs before and the lessons get learnt again every generation
Now maybe the claim is a softer "the cost will be relatively small and will be offset by the gain". Well, I am sceptical of a Government making that call accurately
It's also worth noting the type of consumer that will be affected. It may not have a huge affect on the economy.. But poor people buy cheap consumer goods from China and they are very sensitive to price changes.
From a purely political calculation, it is risky 1.5years out from an election if Trump wants to repeat his successes in the rust belt -
@Duluth said in US Politics:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in US Politics:
Can you think of things that China produces that other countries cannot easily cover and produce for?
Of course not.. but at what price and how much cost/time is involved in changing suppliers
It's certainly not a 'laughable' idea that there will be costs to US consumers. The zero cost claim has been made about tariffs before and the lessons get learnt again every generation
Now maybe the claim is a softer "the cost will be relatively small and will be offset by the gain". Well, I am skeptical of a Government making that call accurately
It's also worth noting the type of consumer that will be affected. It may not have a huge affect on the economy.. But poor people buy cheap consumer goods from China and they are very sensitive to price changes.
From a purely political calculation, it is risky 1.5years out from an election if Trump wants to repeat his successes in the rust beltWell clearly we are taking a macro view, and the macro view is pretty clear that with today logistics infrastructure, it is easy to change suppliers. I think the chicken little nonsense is being worn thin with most people. The poor in the rust belt wont even notice these tariffs and any small increase in price.
And who said anyitnhg abut zero cost??? There is a cost, a not insignificant one... but that will be paid by suppliers. -
Trump has been talking about Chinese predatory Chinese mercantilism long before he was elected. He (in his megaphone style) has pretty much
single-handedly changed US perceptions of the threat posed by them.Could it be that this the threat of China wasn't pushed before because Trump isn't owned by Wall Street but Obama, Bush etc. were in bed with them ???????????????
This article (sent to me by a friend) does a great job of outlining the Chinese strategy and threat.
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@Duluth said in US Politics:
@Frank said in US Politics:
Could it be that this the threat of China wasn't pushed before because Trump isn't owned by Wall Street but Obama, Bush etc. were in bed with them ???????????????
Romney pushed it hard in 2012
But would Chamber of Commerce Mitt have actually done anything about it ??
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Saw this on another forum ....
**A nation that doesn't even know what it wants to be on the world stage has no business telling other nations what to do.
You're worried about extreme economic disparity? Wait till you get a load of the hours that Chinese people work and the amount they're paid. They're truly corporate serfs and the government is totally complicit in this because they are the corporations.
You're worried about government surveillance? Enjoy being gulag'd for having opinions that aren't harmonious.
It's ironic given that this forum is full of skeptics when it comes to things like the Western intellectual/Military Supremacy, The Holocaust and Racism but they blindly believe:
- China is absolutely going to surpass the West despite a lot of evidence to the contrary
- China and Russia are totally gonna team-up
- China not saying anything about the tariffs is evidence that the tariffs don't matter
- This one belt, one road thing is totally gonna work
- Somehow China will be a force for global good simply because they're not us.
Where do you think these ideas of Chinese exceptionalism come from? Chinese propaganda. They have a rather dedicated international apparatus that seeks to undermine Western values while trumpeting the greatness of China. They try to do this in Western universities through things like the Confucius Institute. Beware any overly optimistic predictions you get about any country, especially China.
They're currently going HAM on capital controls because they're so obsessed with keeping money inside and keeping their best and brightest from siphoning off their wealth and getting passports to other countries. Does this sound like the move of an economically secure country? They want to spread Chinese influence and wealth, but they don't even let their own people take money out of the country to actually go be a shining example to the rest of the world. Not to mention, they create insecurity (through currency manipulation) in the populace which causes them to find ways to siphon off their wealth in an ever-escalating financial arms race within their own country.**
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Mods - should I make a separate "Spygate" thread???
Various Obama intel officials are pointing fingers at one another, because they have come to realize that their prior criminality may not be rewarded but rather prosecuted.
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Comey, Brennan and Clapper are accusing one another as to who insisted in the unverified dossier be included in the presidential intelligence assessment.
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McCabe says Comey authorized him to leak, Comey denies it.
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McCabe testified the dossier was the anchoring evidence that the FBI presented to the FISA court. Comey denies it.
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McCabe says Rosenstein was serious about wearing a wire to record the President. Rosenstein says that is a lie.
Expect more and more contradictions to surface.
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Did sumbuddy really say “all” their “sexual fantasies involve handcuffs”...?
Folk-hero and savior of the Republic is about to have his dreams come true... awwwwww.
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"IC leaders aren’t used to being held to account by the Justice Department, and their oversight by Congress generally is mild. Theirs is a comfortable world, obfuscated and kept mysterious by the liberal use of their classified-information shield. The demonization of Attorney General Barr has begun — a sign that he is probably on the right track. And the IC leaders are on notice."
https://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/444802-ag-barr-puts-former-intel-bosses-on-notice
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Take a seat, put your feet up and get ready to have a big ol' drink of cray-cray.
You can see why the AOC satire account had to be banned on twitter..satire and the real thing are literally indistinguishable. Let her explain how gardens are racist all the while making the argument for gardening which has historically led to mass starvation.
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@Rembrandt Meh, I'd still do her.
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