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@Catogrande said in Brexit:
That's what you get when someone is more interested in their own lust for power and getting one over on the opposition than their actual political convictions or principles.
Some would argue lack of actual political convictions as been a major asset for Johnson!
Indeed but made up for by an over-abundance of political ambition!
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Disappointing to see what politicians have come out with since this came out.
DUP - can't back it, doesn't give every single thing we want and more
SNP - can't back it, revoke article 50
Corbyn - can't back it, puts NHS at risk of US privatisation
Lib Dems - can't back it, comment not relevant as they are now a Remain party.
Brexit Party - can't back it, not a hard enough Brexit.I get that people are entrenched, but I firmly believe people are no longer voting in country's interest. Here's my prediction:
Parliament doesn't back it, general election gets called.
Boris & Co go to every single constituent who voted leave and the MP voted against the deal (this is likely to be 150+)
Conservatives win around 48% of what's required.
Conservatives go around all parties and say, only prepared to team up with anybody who agrees to vote for this deal.Somebody caves. Most likely the Brexit party.
Done.
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
Somebody caves. Most likely the Brexit party.
Pretty much go along with your analysis although I hold out a 10% chance that enough Labour members will vote this deal through on Saturday. If they do it will be as a group en mass, so wouldn't come together until the final 24 hours.
If there is a new election I think Boris has done enough to regain the Brexit vote over the past few months. There is no deal to be had simply say "we will deal with anyone commited to get Brexit done" and if Brexit do manage a 10-20 seat contingent it should be easy enough to have them capitulate.
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Good summary ahead of the vote on Saturday:
Boris Johnson has delivered the first part of his Brexit policy: He’s struck a deal with the European Union. Now, does he have the numbers to get it past Parliament?
That hurdle tripped up his predecessor, Theresa May. Yet while British negotiators haggled with their European Union counterparts this week, another set of talks took place in London, where members of Parliament trooped into Johnson’s office to discuss whether they would support him.
But can it be done? Here’s how the numbers break down.
Target: 320
Once non-voting MPs are accounted for, Johnson needs 320 MPs on his side to win any vote in the House of Commons.Baseline: 259
The last time Theresa May tried to get her deal through, in March, she had the support of 279 Conservatives. They’re mostly likely to back a Johnson deal too, but there are some problems.Johnson expelled a group of MPs from the party in September after they backed legislation blocking a no-deal Brexit. They were joined by Amber Rudd, who resigned in sympathy. Also out of the party is Nick Boles, who quit the Conservatives earlier this year in frustration at the Brexit deadlock.
As a result there are question marks against 19 former Tories who previously backed May’s deal. On top of that number, one deal-backing Conservative, Chris Davies, lost his seat to a Liberal Democrat in a recall election.
That leaves Johnson 61 votes short. Where can he go?
‘Gaukeward Squad’: 19
The expelled Tories, who take their name from former Justice Secretary David Gauke, are temperamentally loyalists -- some had never voted against their party before September. Many of them are looking for a way back in. Given that their objection to Johnson’s strategy was the fear he was pursuing a no-deal divorce, they may be happy to get back into line if he reaches an agreement.But it’s not certain. Gauke has questioned whether Johnson’s promises can be trusted, while former Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond has warned of the economic dangers of not having a close relationship with the EU. Several of them, including Antoinette Sandbach, have suggested the U.K. needs to hold another referendum.
Johnson would be doing very well if he got all of them on side.
Democratic Unionist Party: 10
Johnson worked hard to try to keep Northern Ireland’s DUP engaged, but they have come out firmly against the new deal. They have deep reservations about anything that creates any kind of border between Britain and Northern Ireland, such as customs checks in the Irish Sea, and want a stronger consent mechanism that hands greater say to the regional assembly.The DUP were the big prize, because they would unlock...
The Spartans: 28
The self-titled “Spartans” are Conservative MPs who refused to vote for May’s deal. They chose their name to recall the fearsome Ancient Greek warriors who held off a numerically superior Persian force at the Battle of Thermopylae.When Johnson became prime minister, the Spartans were adamant they opposed any but the most minimal Brexit agreement. But in recent weeks they have begun to see the virtues of compromise. This is the result of the Benn Act, legislation that aims to prevent the U.K. leaving on Oct. 31 unless Johnson has reached a deal. It’s made the Spartans fear losing Brexit altogether.
The leader of the Spartans, Steve Baker, twice described emerging deal as “tolerable” before it was unveiled. But another, former Northern Ireland Secretary Owen Paterson, was more critical. If the DUP were to get on board, most of the Spartans would fall into line. But even without the DUP, many are desperate to get Brexit over the line.
Two Spartans, at least, are fairly sure to back a deal: Priti Patel and Theresa Villiers are both in Johnson’s Cabinet.
Labour: 21
May pinned her hopes on winning the support of a significant minority of MPs from the opposition Labour Party who believe the 2016 referendum result must be honored.She struggled to get more than five to vote with her, but 15 who didn’t back her last time joined some who did in signing a letter this month urging the EU to do a deal. That might imply a commitment to actually vote for such an agreement. There’s also Kate Hoey, a fierce supporter of Brexit, who’s likely to vote the same way as the Spartans.
Against that is the fear of retribution from their party if they do so. Leader Jeremy Corbyn and his team sense that defeating Johnson’s deal is a key step on their route to beating him at an election. Others in the party see defeating a deal as essential to securing another referendum.
Any Labour MP voting with the government risks expulsion, though a handful are retiring at the next election anyway so might not see that as an effective threat.
Independents: 5
Four independent MPs backed May’s deal in March. A fifth, John Woodcock, might also be tempted.Other MPs: 2
Two possible supporters defy categorization. Liberal Democrat Norman Lamb, who is stepping down at the next election, represents a seat that voted to leave the EU and has been critical of his party’s anti-Brexit stance. And Jo Johnson, brother of the prime minister, voted against the deal in March, agreed to join his brother’s Cabinet, then resigned. Both could potentially back a deal to settle the issue.So, Johnson Needs 61 of 85 Available Votes
It’s tight, but feasible. In charge of wooing MPs is Johnson’s political secretary, Danny Kruger, who has been speaking not just to Conservatives but to opposition lawmakers who might be tempted to support a deal. The opposite of his more famous and abrasive colleague Dominic Cummings, Kruger is a gentle and thoughtful former political speech-writer who has set up two charities to help people on the margins of society.
The Risks
There is a question, however, of whether the prime minister might lose some support, for example among those Tories who voted for a deal in March and regretted doing so afterward.There’s also another intriguing possibility. When Theresa May was prime minister, she said a Brexit deal that split Northern Ireland from Great Britain was one that no prime minister could accept. Now she’s a former prime minister and if that’s the path Johnson takes, could she live with it?
She’ll almost certainly stay loyal, but then Johnson did make her life very difficult, so it’s hard to be sure.
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@MajorRage Yeah. Maybe not zero, but low.Whoever said 10% earlier probably about right.
The fact both sides seem to dislike the deal probably means its pretty good, and in the middle, as there's no perfect way out of this mess
The right leaning me still blames Corbyn for everything.
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
Reading that, I give Boris zero chance.
Not if the EU refuse another extension and it's a straight choice between the BoJo deal and No Deal. Juncker has just indicated that is the EU Commission's view - though it's up to EU leaders to finally decide and not Juncker.
Either way, BoJo gets his deal thru, there's an election and we move on OR the deal is rejected, there's an extension, an election, and a straight choice between ending this shit by re-electing BoJo or carrying on with more deals, hung parliaments. more referendums and ongoing chaos.
I sense BoJo has actually thought this through.
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Brilliantly ironic tweet from Farage on Juncker ruling out another extension.
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I have no idea what the opposition are trying to do.
If they vote this down I just don't see where it all goes. -
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
I have no idea what the opposition are trying to do.
If they vote this down I just don't see where it all goes.I suspect there are going to be quite a few from opposition parties who vote for it. But I still think it will lose. And then ...
@MajorRage said in Brexit:
I get that people are entrenched, but I firmly believe people are no longer voting in country's interest. Here's my prediction:
Parliament doesn't back it, general election gets called.
Boris & Co go to every single constituent who voted leave and the MP voted against the deal (this is likely to be 150+)
Conservatives win around 48% of what's required.
Conservatives go around all parties and say, only prepared to team up with anybody who agrees to vote for this deal.Somebody caves. Most likely the Brexit party.
Done.
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
Can anybody wade on here and smash my opinions and thoughts to pieces?
I need a contrarian. I've just had 45 mins discussion with colleagues .. and we essentially all agree. Worrying.
London centric.
Commute to London centric. But there's all walks here.
Apart from Corbyn supporters.
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
@MajorRage said in Brexit:
Can anybody wade on here and smash my opinions and thoughts to pieces?
I need a contrarian. I've just had 45 mins discussion with colleagues .. and we essentially all agree. Worrying.
London centric.
Commute to London centric. But there's all walks here.
Apart from Corbyn supporters.
I tried.
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@MajorRage said in Brexit:
Can anybody wade on here and smash my opinions and thoughts to pieces?
I need a contrarian. I've just had 45 mins discussion with colleagues .. and we essentially all agree. Worrying.
I'd like to try but sadly I think you're on the money. The deal, such as it is, seems to be essentially May's deal but instead of a hard border between NI and the republic, there is a semi-hard border in the Irish Sea. Now I can see how this sits a little better on the island of Ireland but not sure that it's a solution in re the UK and I'm not sure there IS a solution either.
However, I am beginning to think, that apart from the DUP and Sein Fein, the Irish problem is just a hook to hang the coat on. The real, underlying issue is a reluctance to leave the EU and party politics. Neither of which are being dealt with in Boris' deal. So sadly I fear your predicted outcome is highly likely. Where this takes us aside from becoming even more divided I don't know.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Brexit:
If they vote this down I just don't see where it all goes.
Extension then a General Election.
Parliament v People. BoJo wins. Brexit done
Bojo loses. Brexit chaos for another year, then 2nd Referendum.
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@Catogrande said in Brexit:
However, I am beginning to think, that apart from the DUP and Sein Fein, the Irish problem is just a hook to hang the coat on. The real, underlying issue is a reluctance to leave the EU and party politics
Pretty much on the nail. Some MPs were calling for a 2nd referendum or saying it was "advisory only" within hours of the 2016 result. They are now calling for another vote as "we didn't know it was going to be so difficult" or "to confirm the deal". Strange they didn't say that before the referendum result they expected to win. Even stranger that they don't see how transparent they are.
I used to think the Eurosceptics were nuts (still do) but the Remain side have become crazier. The Lib Dem's position appears to be to have another referendum and if Leave win again, to refuse to implement the result.
Labour's position is to get another deal, put that to a public vote and campaign against the deal they have just negotiated. Yes, really.
Brexit