Hang on a sec
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<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Rancid Schnitzel" data-cid="551235" data-time="1452142485">
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<p>It's pretty insane, but I think Merkel saw it as a unique opportunity to finally rehabilitate Germany from the WW2 atrocities. I suspect she also had an eye on demographics and saw this as a chance to import a young labour force.<br><br>
As we can see, that's worked out real well.</p>
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<p>They'd already learnt that lesson from importing Turks.</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="antipodean" data-cid="551264" data-time="1452145302">
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<p>They'd already learnt that lesson from importing Turks.</p>
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<p>of course, the import of Turks has resulted in the ability to get a fucking unreal kebab while walking home bent up after Oktoberfest in Munich. </p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Donsteppa" data-cid="551251" data-time="1452143895">
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<p>
Mid-run, if German demographics are as 'bad' as some of the other Western European nations/Japan, and if (a big if) they've got their numbers and timing right (setting aside settlement and integration for the moment) at worst it'll keep wages the same/avoid upward wage inflation.<br><br>
.</p>
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<p>Re that arguement, what you REALLY want to import is breeding age women - ideally ones who are a bit submissive & buy the idea that they should not have careers & should stay home & raise 4 kids. And kids who are young enough to educate & become productive. So in that regard there are a LOT of Syrians you could bring in & it'd be great. You'd have a short term drain as they don't earn, but a long term positive as the population gets a boost.</p>
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<p>You very much dont want the old, or men.</p>
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<p>The "we are aging so need imigrants!" arguement only really works if the immigrants either earn enough to pay good amounts of tax or breed heavily and assimilate to provide a boost to future tax payers. The last thing you want are single low skilled men who pay almost no tax and send what money they do make home to their family.</p>
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<p>The Turks sort of worked in that Germany was in a building boom so needed low skilled labourl & more or less intergrated - plus the demographic issue was not on the radar, tho' a lot of cash was sent home. But now with robotics & so on there aren't thousands of low paid unskilled labouring jobs, or if there are the Romanians & Bulgarians are already doing them. </p> -
And/or,<br>
- highly skilled (younger) men in key labour market areas, or<br>
- wealthy (younger) individuals likely to invest in job/wealth creation activities, or<br>
- students studying higher end courses, ideally in areas of current/future skill shortage<br><br>
I haven't dug into the trends yet, but they were never going to get many in the latter two categories, and have lucked out on the former if comments so far in the thread are on the mark. <br><br>
I hadn't realised this about their status in Germany though: <a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/11/06/report-german-government-downgrade-syrians-can-stay-2-years-no-family-reunions/'>http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/11/06/report-german-government-downgrade-syrians-can-stay-2-years-no-family-reunions/</a> - many more instances like Cologne, and things will get tighter again. They seem to have given themselves some wriggle room (or at least more than I'd realised...)
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By contrast, the NZ refugee intake get permanent residence on arrival: <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.refugeehealth.govt.nz/about-us/refugees-and-asylum-seekers-in-new-zealand">http://www.refugeehealth.govt.nz/about-us/refugees-and-asylum-seekers-in-new-zealand</a> though based on smaller numbers <a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.immigration.govt.nz/migrant/general/generalinformation/refugee-protection/">http://www.immigration.govt.nz/migrant/general/generalinformation/refugee-protection/</a>
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<p>The volte-face of the Germans in downgrading the status of the Syrian refugees will likely turn out to be irrelevant. So they have to leave after two years instead of three? Where are they going to go? How are they going to be transported? (Please no-one say cattle trucks). How will they all be found and identified? The logistics are enormous. It took an awful lot of organisation in letting them in when both sides were working to the same aim - what chance do you give it when one side are dead set against it?</p>
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<p>Three years was bollocks anyway, 2 years is just further bollocks with a sugar coating for the German electorate. The family reunion thing might (small might) have some traction, but you can bet your last penny that any attempts to block such things will be held up as a transgression of their human rights etc etc.</p>
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<p>Nope. They are fucked on this one.</p> -
<p>UK has (apparently) 40,000 failed asylym seekers that were told to leave but haven't & now no one actually knows where they are... once you are in you are in.</p>
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<p>Plus if you fail you just go try knock someone up, then you cannot be deported due to EU humans rights laws.</p>
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<p>I guess that is an upside sort of. Sure 40,000 very dodgey asylum seekers are loose in the UK not working nor paying taxes, but 40,000 fatties & 39 year old chicks are getting that shot at a baby they'd never normally have. So silver lining there. </p> -
<p>On a personal, selfish level I see NO silver lining.</p>
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<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Rancid Schnitzel" data-cid="551256" data-time="1452144506"><p>
Nick have you ever wondered why these people are galloping right through Eastern Europe and even Denmark and going straight for countries like Germany, Sweden and Norway that: (a)will let them stay (2) give them free shit? Actually I just answered that for you. As the Indonesia President once said, "Take the sugar off the table".<br><br>
With regard to work, the big question is what work these young men can actually do. They don't speak German and you have to study for years to be qualified for anything in Germany. They could do the shit jobs, but will they want to when the unemployment benefits are so generous? I've also read that even Syrians in Syria aren't keen to do the shit jobs. So I guess while you have a potential pool of labour, it appears to be largely composed of unskilled men who don't speak the language. Not exactly ideal.</p></blockquote>
<br><blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Rancid Schnitzel" data-cid="551258" data-time="1452144808"><p>
Apologies Nick, I misread your post. Disregard.</p></blockquote>
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:D<br><br>
I'm not really pro-refugee in order to fix a problem of the MidEast's making. I was just thinking out loud about what it means economically for Germany.<br><br>
The benefits - with one eyebrow raised at jegga's fixation with white burds being raped by camel-fuckers fresh out of the desert :fishing: - are there for all to see in terms of welfare etc.<br><br>
Mostly, I'm kind of shocked the krauts didn't have minimum wage as part of federal law. -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="gollum" data-cid="551316" data-time="1452159739">
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<p>But now with robotics & so on there aren't thousands of low paid unskilled labouring jobs, or if there are the Romanians & Bulgarians are already doing them. </p>
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<p>Automation is going to make Western populations less employable as time goes by. Once robots do our cleaning for us, were do the unwashed masses turn?</p>
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<p>Finland's experiment with basic wage for all will be interesting:</p>
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<p><a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33977636'>http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33977636</a></p> -
Immigration is hard - most people clearly know very little about it. Studies show that immigration is a net positive economically, but it's a small impact unless numbers are cranked right up. Generally, the jobs taken by migrants are balanced by jobs created by their existence e.g. food, clothing, transport, housing, general consumption. It's a common misconception that allowing migrants to get visas as lowskilled workers undercuts locals, but most tertiary institutions are reliant on foreign students to stay afloat, and a number of regional towns and industries are dependent on migrant workers because NZers are less than keen to move there permanently, or take on that kind of work (e.g. farming, rest homes). Cutting back on that type of immigration will cause issues for those places and industries. However, too much of it depresses wages, and prevents unskilled locals from finding work, and can create an underclass of low skilled migrants. <br><br>
The flipside of that is the major issue with the concept of skilled migrants is that it cuts out opportunities for locals and interferes with their ability to study or retrain to fill those roles. Imagine doing career planning at high school 5 years ago and deciding to study accounting because there was a shortage at that time. You get a degree in accounting after 5 years of planning and study (2 at high school, 3 at university or polytech), and then discover you can't get a job in NZ because a stack of skilled migrants have filled most of the jobs, and the pay rates haven't moved in 5 years because the wave of migrants has repressed wage growth. That said, some skilled migrants are still needed as locals don't always stay in NZ... <br><br>
The point of the waffling above is that a mix of low and high skilled migrants is best as too much weight one way or the other creates its own issues. -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="NTA" data-cid="551336" data-time="1452172136">
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<p>Automation is going to make Western populations less employable as time goes by. Once robots do our cleaning for us, were do the unwashed masses turn?</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Finland's experiment with basic wage for all will be interesting:</p>
<p> </p>
<p><a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33977636'>http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33977636</a></p>
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<p>Indeed. There will be an issue where a very small chunk of the population own the companies that make all the automated systems. So the jobs go, and the money is concentrated with only a few people.</p>
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<p>EG Tesla teams up with Uber. 500,000 taxi drivers lose their jobs. And the profits go to 10,000 employees at Tesla/Uber.</p>
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<p>Now repeat that for everything.</p>
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<p>A company like Google has 50k employees in the US averaging 100k a year. So $5bn is being distributed. 50 years ago the top companies in the US were distributing $5bn (equivelant) in wages, but to <em><strong>350,000 </strong></em>staff. Its why the middle class in the US has been evicerated.</p>
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<p>Hence there is a school of thought that governments should own a chunk of all of the new disruptive tech's. IE if the US government own 10% of Google, when Google make $100bn from destroying a stack of jobs the government pockets $10bn as shareholders & uses it to pay a uiniversal wage to the 90% of the population that have no jobs & don't own shares in Google, Uber, Tesla, Lyft, Amazon, Microsoft, Intel etc. </p> -
<p><a data-ipb='nomediaparse' href='http://www.dw.com/en/reports-cologne-nye-assaulters-were-largely-asylum-seekers/a-18966406'>Reports: Cologne NYE assaulters were largely asylum-seekers</a></p>
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<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote">A majority of men who sexually harassed women in Cologne on New Year's Eve were asylum seekers, German media reports. City police reportedly did not want to publicize this because of its "politically awkward" nature.
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I smell a big fat German cover up
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<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Tim" data-cid="551401" data-time="1452210326"><p><a class="bbc_url" href="http://www.dw.com/en/reports-cologne-nye-assaulters-were-largely-asylum-seekers/a-18966406">Reports: Cologne NYE assaulters were largely asylum-seekers</a></p></blockquote>
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I just saw the Amy Winehouse doco , I was more surprised about her dying at the end than I am about reading that. <br><br>
On the plus side, we could be experiencing an influx of cashed up Europeans wanting to move here to get away from the idiocy of Merkel etc . -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="Virgil" data-cid="551412" data-time="1452216073">
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<p>I smell a big fat German cover up</p>
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<p>Kim.com?</p> -
<blockquote class="ipsBlockquote" data-author="reprobate" data-cid="550922" data-time="1452039325">
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<p>so if a topic is locked, some people (mods?) can still post in it?</p>
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<p>hypothetically speaking for example, in a global warming thread - someone could post an article from one point of view after it's locked so nobody would be able to rebut it?</p>
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<p>now there's a conspiracy</p>
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<p>Stop your whining buttercups.</p> -
<p>That article is pretty short on facts, beyond this:</p>
<p> </p>
<p></p><p></p><blockquote class="ipsBlockquote"><span style="color:rgb(62,62,62);font-family:Georgia, Times, serif;font-size:15px;">According to the newspapers' reports, citing officers on duty on New Year's Eve, officials checked the IDs of at least 100 people present at Cologne's central station on December 31 after their behavior became conspicuous. Seventy-one people were identified, 11 people were remanded into custody and 32 criminal complaints were registered, according to the Welt am Sonntag (WamS) report.</span>
<p style="color:rgb(62,62,62);font-size:15px;font-family:Georgia, Times, serif;">"There were, quite to the contrary of what was said publicly, identity checks on numerous people," the WamS quoted an unnamed officer as saying. "Most of them were recently-arrived asylum-seekers."</p>
<p style="color:rgb(62,62,62);font-size:15px;font-family:Georgia, Times, serif;">The first internal police report on the event - a so-called "wichtige Ereignis Meldung" ("important event announcement") - spoke of a crowd mainly of "North African and Arab" origin. According to the Kölner Stadt-anzeiger, the officer leading the team at the station wanted the report to include mention of the Syrians and asylum seekers, but the senior officer writing the "WE-Meldung" decided not to, saying it would be "politically awkward."</p>
<p><span style="color:rgb(62,62,62);font-family:Georgia, Times, serif;font-size:15px;">It is still unclear whether the same persons were involved in the assaults.</span><span style="color:rgb(62,62,62);font-family:Georgia, Times, serif;font-size:15px;"></span></p></blockquote>
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<p>Other than that, two unnamed officers reporting the same guys were in on the sexual assault stuff.</p>
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<p>The chief of police should lose his job for putting out bullshit statements about peaceful conduct, but unless you've got this "thousand" men of "North African and Arab origin" all lined up and can prove they're asylum seekers, you're distilling the bits you want out of Chinese whispers.</p>
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<p>At night on NYE I'll bet most men tend to look foreign - and what if they're second- or third-gen immigrants who happen to be a bit swarthy?</p>
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<p>And, regardless of who the fuck they are and where they come from, its disgusting and they should get deported if they're asylum seekers, or serious jail time and fines if they're citizens.</p>