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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in US Politics:
The bif indicators were all tracking in great directions, you seem to think it is a fluke, or legacy of Obama, I think that is ludicrous.
Unemployment has followed the same trend line for a decade. GDP has hovered around 2% for a while.
The trend line of the Dow Jones has been consistent for a long time apart from a pause around the last presidential election (I'd be weary of reading too much into a share market though)I don't see a big change in these indicators? As for the credit? I don't think Presidents are as important as partisans make them out to be (positive and negative)
Obama fans in the last couple of years of his Presidency were taking victory laps about the share market and unemployment rate. Republicans were complaining about the budget deficit.
Trump fans have been making the same argument about the share market and unemployment... but unfortunately fuckall people have been complaining about the fiscal policy (because both parties want to spend a crazy amount of money)The low unemployment rate has hidden a few things IMO. First of all unemployment counts the number of people searching for work.. not the people who drop out of the system. Remember there is a cap on how much unemployment benefit you can collect in the US. Also some unemployed get hidden on other benefits.
My concern is that the workforce participation rate has been strangely low in the USThe 'diseases of despair' deaths (suicide, opiates, alcoholism) don't seem to match the unemployment trend line. Maybe there is another reason for that.. Personally I'm not convinced the unemployment rate means the same thing they did a generation ago.
It's a lot more murky than a binary good/bad rating.
The deregulation has been good. Then's been some good reforms on executive power that Paul has squeezed in too.
The tax cuts were well designed, they were the basic plan that Republicans have been pushing for years... however they should have come with a matching spending cut IMO (yes, yes I'm sure someone will mention the Laffer curve)One thing that I'm sure you'll agree on is that it's a real fuckup to allow the deficit to increase to a trillion dollars
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@Duluth I'd like that post twice if I could.
Given the trend line post the GFC, I'm not sure how US employment data can be used to show either Obama or Trump as notably better than the other for employment growth. The growth trend is broadly the same for both going back to 2011. On the whole, both administrations have been good for US employment growth.
(To preempt: I'd blame Obama for the GFC-impact on employment numbers at the beginning of his term as much as I'd blame Trump for the performance of the Dow Jones in the last little while - i.e. not at all.)
The US labour market participation rate is curiously and stubbornly low.
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Regardless of your opinions of him, the odds on Trump's re-election have to be getting longer. He's still the favourite but it's a lot closer than it was a month ago.
The playbook for first-term Presidents getting the shaft looks very similar to this - they hum along OK and then get hit by an event that's beyond their control, and are perceived to respond poorly to it (a very simplistic analysis, of course, but you get my drift).
HW Bush had the recession, and Carter had the Iran hostage crisis. Coronavirus looms as the equivalent for Trump, and the big question is can he keep the disease in check and the economy alive.
The complete shambles that is the US medical system certainly doesn't seem to be helping him, but I can't say I know too much about the specifics of the situation over there.
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@Rembrandt said in US Politics:
@Crucial said in US Politics:
Thankfully creating a war as diversion doesn't look to be an option at the moment.
Hope Erdogan gets that memo, lots of unstability currently.
Instability yes. And bound to get more.
Not saying nothing will happen just that it is unlikely to be instigated by the US. -
A Biden presidency would be freaking hilarious.
I wonder if Trump would run again in 2024? -
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in US Politics:
A Biden presidency would be freaking hilarious.
I wonder if Trump would run again in 2024?I can't see US citizens voting in a dementia patient, even during or after a disaster.
The most reasonable course of action would be thus:
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@barbarian said in US Politics:
HW Bush had the recession, and Carter had the Iran hostage crisis. Coronavirus looms as the equivalent for Trump, and the big question is can he keep the disease in check and the economy alive.
McCain by all polls had Obama covered before the GFC too.
I think this one is a bit different. My inclination is that it will play more like a war than an economic meltdown - but who knows.
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@Duluth said in US Politics:
The low unemployment rate has hidden a few things IMO. First of all unemployment counts the number of people searching for work.. not the people who drop out of the system. Remember there is a cap on how much unemployment benefit you can collect in the US. Also some unemployed get hidden on other benefits.
My concern is that the workforce participation rate has been strangely low in the USThe 'diseases of despair' deaths (suicide, opiates, alcoholism) don't seem to match the unemployment trend line. Maybe there is another reason for that.. Personally I'm not convinced the unemployment rate means the same thing they did a generation ago.
It's a lot more murky than a binary good/bad rating.
Agree 100%. Also underemployment is obviously a major issue and zero hours contracts excacerbate it further.
When you get any metric like which is so widely used and has political cut through the natural urge is going to be to game it. Same thing with the budget - after the bushfires but before coronavirus there were multiple articles outlining the loopholes the coalition could use to present a budget surplus on paper while ramping up capital spending in response.
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Interesting.
Trump's approval rating is going up.
44% to 49%
(Gallup is not a pro-Republican poll)However, as the article notes, the poll was conducted March 13–22, and opinions could change significantly given how quickly the COVID-19 crisis is developing.
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Only thing with more buffoonery than an Orange Man is a Buffoon infected with Trump Derangement Syndrome.
Some of the stuff his political opponents have come up with in the last few weeks has been, in political terms, truly idiotic
Politics and media, both have come up with incredible idiocy over recent times.
I really dislike Trump as a person. I'd like to have thought that Americans would dislike having such a man as their leader, but it wasn't to be. So be it. On the flipside, I do not disagree with everything he has done in the last 4 years. I agree with some of the things he says right now. And I'm happy to say when I do.
But I wholeheartedly reserve the right to criticise an action or comment he makes or says in its own right, and I totally resent (not accusing you of accusing me) being called a hater or a sufferer of some derangement syndrome when I'm critical.
It's just so typical of where we are these days that you can't opine on a single event or action without getting cast as a radical hater one way or the other.
Interesting. I think it is because the media and culture is so stronng outside of the US that Trump is hopeless, that os really only sociably acceptable to criticise him. I just imagine th reaction at a social gathering if the subject came up and somneone sai how they think Trump is horrendous, most people wouldnt bat an eye. If on the other hand someone said how they htought he was doing great, the reaction would be either 1) telling you not to discuss politics, or b) soundly berated and beaten down about it.
I have no reason to not believe you about you thinking Trump has good ideas, but I dont remember you ever actually coming out with praise for the man. I do remember you lambasting him though.
This isnt a charge at you specifically, but debate and conversation is at its core, stumped and defeated by complete and utter intolerance of different ideas. The people who hate Trump never ever let anyone in their presence get away with praising him. I genuinely think people are scared to praise Trump in public, because they know how intolerant his detractors are. Even your post couldnt just say he has done good things.. you had to through in the usual and very common caveat of him being a horrible person. I used to do that as well, then I realized I was doing it for no real good reason.
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