Coronavirus - Overall
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@taniwharugby Begs the question, if they're freeing things up, of where the newly found resistance is coming from? Or are they able rigorously to enforce the 2m gap, rendering lockdown redundant?
Study in The Lancet suggests, based on Wuhan, that reintroducing workforce over four weeks and schools only at end keeps infection rate at manageable levels.
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Latest Dutch: https://www.rivm.nl/nieuws/actuele-informatie-over-coronavirus/data Starting to look like coming down the bell curve. Peak seems to be three and a half weeks after first death. This would put UK peak at around 31 March. N.B. Dutch relying on social distancing, without the need for lockdown because residents seem to have used common sense to judge what 2m distancing means.
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Priorities
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@Victor-Meldrew said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Priorities
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - Overall:
I think China and the WHO are lying through their teeth.
Like motherfuckers
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Keep safe out there everyone, especially the UK ferners and those on the front line.
Have loved the the way we have kept this (mostly) amicable so far, let’s keep the humour up and watching out for each other’s mental health. We have a long long way to go yet..
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - Overall:
I think China and the WHO are lying through their teeth.
Looking at The updated stats on world wide infections, NZ has more cases per million then China does.... yeah...
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Surely an expired N95 mask is better than no N95 mask? I'd be interested to hear from 3M what constitutes an expired mask. Sounds like they have been stored in optimal conditions so should be fine. If one or two of them are failed, just grab another
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The goon from WHO featured in that video reminded me that three of our four worst, world's best practice incompetent prime ministers, when voted out or knifed by their honorable colleagues, made a beeline for UN-WHO type organisations for their ongoing incomes and manic need for fame.
Those political forces are infested with the likes of that sheila Rudd who are determined to lead the ignorant proletariat. This bloke and our
smartestpudgiest and most effeminate bloke in the room would be firm friends. -
Thought this was a pretty good article around the commentary from doctors both here and overseas:
My fellow doctors should zip it and let the experts fight this virus
*Do you have questions about COVID-19? Please, don’t ask your doctor. When it comes to coronavirus, most of us have no idea what we’re talking about.
I’m a general and infectious disease paediatrician in Sydney. I’m caring for kids hospitalised with suspected or proven COVID-19, so I want to call out some colleagues contributing to the confusion.
There are two types of doctors. Those who see patients (clinicians) and those who look after the population (public health doctors). Clinicians are the doctors to see if you have COVID-19; but the vast majority of us have never managed a pandemic in our lives. In fact, the first time most of us heard of "flattening the curve" was March 2020.*
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Do you have questions about COVID-19? Please, don’t ask your doctor. When it comes to coronavirus, most of us have no idea what we’re talking about.
I’m a general and infectious disease paediatrician in Sydney. I’m caring for kids hospitalised with suspected or proven COVID-19, so I want to call out some colleagues contributing to the confusion.
There are two types of doctors. Those who see patients (clinicians) and those who look after the population (public health doctors). Clinicians are the doctors to see if you have COVID-19; but the vast majority of us have never managed a pandemic in our lives. In fact, the first time most of us heard of "flattening the curve" was March 2020.
Some public health doctors, however, model and manage outbreaks for a living. Many have done so for decades. These women and men advise the body of chief medical officers chaired by Professor Brendan Murphy, the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee. Its recommendations are made public every time they meet and the national cabinet is bound by them.
Enormous credit is due to the AHPPC and Scott Morrison. At a time when the World Health Organisation felt it unnecessary, Australia was among the first countries in the world to impose travel restrictions on China. It cannot be overstated how brave this decision was: Murphy acted before most of his international counterparts and Morrison enacted the advice verbatim, despite the enormous economic impact. We are not Italy, but we might have been if not for this foresight.
Unfortunately, Morrison and Murphy’s education campaign has been woeful. They have created an information vacuum, and my colleagues scramble to fill it. King of the castle is journalist and physician Dr Normal Swan.
Swan claims he is holding decision-makers to account, but where tough questions need asking, he prescribes answers instead. This is particularly evident in his longstanding call for more testing. It’s a strawman argument, of course. Everybody would like to do more testing but there are not enough tests. So, the real-world question is: how to best use a small number of tests for a population of 23 million people? It’s hard to answer that – because it takes several specialised professionals to do so.
Another pet peeve are his back-of-the-envelope extrapolations of "the curve". It can feel as if we are perpetually at the point of no return. But of course, if interpreting an epidemic curve was a matter of simple arithmetic, expert advisers to the AHPPC, Professors Jodie McVernon and Vanessa Johnston, would be out of a job.
During their National Press Club address they explained what really matters: the rate of uncontrolled transmission of COVID-19 within Australia’s borders. This remains a small but growing proportion of total cases. They explain comparisons with other countries is confounded by testing regimens, demographics and many other variables. Interpretation takes supercomputers, not eyeballs.
Perhaps the most momentous push has been for an immediate national lockdown, including closing all schools. Swan is not alone on this. There are outbreak professionals breaking ranks, such as professors Raina MacIntyre and Brendan Crabb. Their objections are understandable. MacIntyre was a member of an external review panel advising the AHPPC; their majority recommendation of a lockdown was rejected.
But as the chair of that review, Dr Shitij Kapur, points out, there is more for the government to consider than numbers of COVID-19 cases. Morrison tactlessly pits this as lives against the economy, but the real concern is that prolonged isolation and a deep recession will kill people, too.
Make no mistake: the situation we face is dire. Many Australians will die from COVID-19 and many deaths will not be preventable. But the decision-makers can manage two big causes of preventable death.
First, hospital failure. If our hospitals fail, anybody needing help during that time could die. A mother with a difficult labour. A brother with an asthma attack. A daughter in a car accident.
But second, poorly timed and disproportionate public health measures will kill people, too. Consider this: the highest rate of male suicide ever recorded in Australia was during the Great Depression. Studies during the SARS outbreak demonstrate significant rates of mental illness years after people were in isolation.
Rampant suicide and mental illness. Might this be Australia’s fate if we get the macabre balance wrong? Who do you think is in the best position to navigate the way? Outbreak experts with all the data? Or twitter’s take on a graph? Perhaps it’s time we all zip it, and let the professionals do the talking.
Ben Smith is a general and infectious disease paediatrician in Sydney.