Coronavirus - Australia
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@Nepia said in Coronavirus - Australia:
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian just had a press announcement where she stated the police will issue on the spot fines people who ignore the rules (people who gather in more than two, unless they're a family group). These will be enforced from midnight tonight.
And people used to laugh at Queensland under Joh.
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@booboo said in Coronavirus - Australia:
We're effectively in lock down.
Went for drive this arvo:
- Ms Boo Jr (Leaner driver) needed to get books out of her locker at school
- Mrs Boo needed to drop in to work to set up her new Acting GM's office.
(Mrs Boo is EA to GM at local private hospital. Have suggested to Mrs Boo that they will be swamped with the non-COVID cases from across the road, and that she's on the front line.)
Anyways, so little traffic. Went to Coles (No loo paper) and for veges and stuff. And there's nobody there.
I really don't see much difference to NZ's situation to what is happening here.
There's a massive difference between NZ and what you describe. Here you couldn't do any of the things you describe.
This thread is full of descriptions of people at the shops in the parks getting together in groups.
In NZ you stay at home unless you are in an essential industry. You can go to the supermarket. Where you queue 2 metres apart and they let 1 in - 1 out. You can go to the pharmacy where one person is in the shop at a time and you can't wait for your scrip. When you enter and leave you sanitise.
You can go for a walk in your local neighbourhood - only with the people you are living with and you have to keep 2 metres away from everyone else at all times. You can go for a bike ride with the people you live with - you can ride a little further but not across the city.
I went for a ride yesterday. All along major thoroughfares. In 20kms I was passed by 7 cars and 3 buses. There were plenty of people out walking but they were giving each other wide berths - like crossing the road wide.
The rest of the tie your at home.
That sounds nothing like Oz. From this side of the ditch the impression we get is you guys are not treating this seriously and are losing control. Hope that's wrong but it's how it feels.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@Nepia said in Coronavirus - Australia:
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian just had a press announcement where she stated the police will issue on the spot fines people who ignore the rules (people who gather in more than two, unless they're a family group). These will be enforced from midnight tonight.
And people used to laugh at Queensland under Joh.
I think all the states are doing this, not just NSW,:
Queensland: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-28/coronavirus-queensland-police-fines-and-expanded-telehealth/12089558
I have a mate in Seattle, they've had lockdown with fines and proper distancing (he has to stand in line outside a supermarket with the the proper distance observed, their playgrounds have been closed for over a week now) for a while now, so it's pretty much happening everywhere including Murica.
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@rotated said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Anecdotally the goose is already cooked in most of these industries. Even if they are still technically open people are going to delay oil changes and routine maintenance as they have no interest in sitting in a waiting area or taking a courtesy shuttle. People who had planned renovations have little interest in contractors coming in and out of their home for two weeks.
I suppose I'm seeing it from the perspective of being stuck in a small town on the south coast. It's not bustling by any stretch, but there are still a few homes being built, some roadworks going on, and various other signs of life in and around the town.
All are very low risk activities, especially when you consider the nearest case is 100km away.
These are the types of people I think a lockout would adversely effect, and for what end? You could of course limit it to Sydney but that creates its own problems, and might send a raft of Sydneysiders down/up the coast en masse.
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@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
send a raft of Sydneysiders down/up the coast en masse.
Prepare a bed for me. I hope you're well stocked with TP!
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@Nepia said in Coronavirus - Australia:
I think all the states are doing this, not just NSW,:
I didn't mean to imply the lunacy was restricted to NSW.
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - Australia:
That sounds nothing like Oz. From this side of the ditch the impression we get is you guys are not treating this seriously and are losing control. Hope that's wrong but it's how it feels.
I think the numbers from this week are showing that the rate of growth is slowing and it is being brought under some sort of control.
We will only be able to judge the relative merits of the Australian solution vs the NZ solution 6-12 months after this has all finished. Even then you aren't really comparing apples with apples given the relative size of both countries and the different levers both countries have the ability to pull.
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - Australia:
That sounds nothing like Oz. From this side of the ditch the impression we get is you guys are not treating this seriously and are losing control. Hope that's wrong but it's how it feels.
As at 3:00pm on 29 March 2020, there have been 3,966 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Or 0.0159% of Australia.
And our new cases aren't increasing exponentially:
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@antipodean I think a key issue is if the numbers overwhelm the ICU (and the wider health system) ability to cope, the health system has to triage more unpleasantly. In Italy, the numbers of cases saw them having to make decisions to limit admissions to younger people, basically leaving older Italians to die. People also start to die from other causes because ICU and other areas of the health system are full.
The tsunami analogy has some merit - keep the wave waist high and most people will survive, but if it gets too much higher, a lot of people die.
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@Godder said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean I think a key issue is if the numbers overwhelm the ICU (and the wider health system) ability to cope, the health system has to triage more unpleasantly. In Italy, the numbers of cases saw them having to make decisions to limit admissions to younger people, basically leaving older Italians to die. People also start to die from other causes because ICU and other areas of the health system are full.
I'm well aware of that argument. So how long are you prepared to be locked up in your own home?
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@Godder said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean I think a key issue is if the numbers overwhelm the ICU (and the wider health system) ability to cope, the health system has to triage more unpleasantly. In Italy, the numbers of cases saw them having to make decisions to limit admissions to younger people, basically leaving older Italians to die.
I think it's clear enough at this point in time that Australia is not experiencing the same level of crisis as Italy, Spain or the US.
The Chief Medical Officer was at pains to point that out last night, where he stressed our early response and high level of testing was very different to that of other countries.
I don't have the stats at hand, but I'd assume Australia at 16 deaths compares far better than those other countries at the same point in the outbreak.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@Godder said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean I think a key issue is if the numbers overwhelm the ICU (and the wider health system) ability to cope, the health system has to triage more unpleasantly. In Italy, the numbers of cases saw them having to make decisions to limit admissions to younger people, basically leaving older Italians to die. People also start to die from other causes because ICU and other areas of the health system are full.
I'm well aware of that argument. So how long are you prepared to be locked up in your own home?
It's the absolute crux of the issue, all other arguments are just noise. We can't shut down the economy to stop old people getting sick and dying, that's just a fact of life. The only reason we're shutting down is because of the fear of our health system getting overwhelmed like has happened in Italy - that affects anyone needing care, not just people with Coronavirus.
So to answer your question, I'd say once we are confident our health system can cope with the increased demand we can then start re-opening. It's an infectious virus that will likely spread through the majority of the population at some point no matter what we do.
I'd also say I don't know what the right approach is - a complete shutdown, some restrictions, or no change at all. I don't envy those making decisions, as there is no immediate right/wrong - we'll only know down the track if what we did was the correct course of action, and by that stage it's too late to change. So I can understand why many governments are choosing to err on the side of caution to protect the health system.
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@No-Quarter those numbers in Italy are just scary now...
10,779 deaths and 97,689 cases...thats a mortality rate of just over 11%
If everyone plays ball and we come out of lock down in 4 or 5 weeks, I expect our borders have to stay closed.
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@No-Quarter said in Coronavirus - Australia:
So to answer your question, I'd say once we are confident our health system can cope with the increased demand we can then start re-opening.
Which I think you'll acknowledge isn't actually an answer...
What is missing on this side of the ditch is a clear indication to Australians that we need to x for this long in order to achieve the desired end-state.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Australia:
If everyone plays ball and we come out of lock down in 4 or 5 weeks, I expect our borders have to stay closed.
Definitely, otherwise we'll be opening up to people who could be travelling asymptomatically and the whole process has to start again.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@No-Quarter those numbers in Italy are just scary now...
10,779 deaths and 97,689 cases...thats a mortality rate of just over 11%
If everyone plays ball and we come out of lock down in 4 or 5 weeks, I expect our borders have to stay closed.
Test everyone as they come off planes, rigorous self isolation measures for all incoming passengers. Asian countries have used various methods such as downloadable apps, or issuing burner phones to make sure people observe the conditions. It is vital to the economy and the people that this is done
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@Tim although post-Covid that will look different to previous seasons I'd expect. Where many of the at risk folks might have already passed due to Corona? Flu deaths may actually be lower due to heightened vigilance about hygiene and the (positive) hangover of isolation.