Coronavirus - Australia
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@Frank said in Coronavirus - Australia:
x increase in unemployment claims, x number of businesses filed for bankruptcy, x increase in mental health call-outs
expect those ones have so many variables it would be difficult to quantify, I mean we already have some deaths attributed to Covid, when in reality a stiff southerly breeze would likely have had same end result with some.
Some businesses have used Covid as a reason to re-structure, whereas some (in NZ) that supposedly fell over in the first week of lockdown, were clearly in trouble anyway, but could attribute Covid to the final nail??
True.And I think the Covid numbers are being inflated in some cases for political gain or the securing of more funding. But I am saying also publish jobs lost, bankruptcy filings. Those are quantifiable. Much more so than whether or not someone's death was caused by Covid.
I worry that the damage being done to economies will not be repairable for a long time.
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@Frank said in Coronavirus - Australia:
True.And I think the Covid numbers are being inflated in some cases for political gain or the securing of more funding. But I am saying also publish jobs lost, bankruptcy filings. Those are quantifiable. Much more so than whether or not someone's death was caused by Covid.
The issue is we've kicked that can down the road. Once legal protection from trading insolvent disappears, we'll see a heap of businesses winding up. Same with personal bankruptcies as newly unemployed people realise they've just been given a repayment grace period but their loan is still accumulating interest.
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But those statistics are just as misleading as deaths. Some old bloke riddled with chronic illness is as much a Covid death as a business well in the red to begin with is a Covid bankrupcy.
Unemployment and underemployment figures are the most reliable macro indicators I'd think.
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@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
But those statistics are just as misleading as deaths. Some old bloke riddled with chronic illness is as much a Covid death as a business well in the red to begin with is a Covid bankrupcy.
Unemployment and underemployment figures are the most reliable macro indicators I'd think.
But even those are affected by JobKeeper.
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@antipodean Yes, but Jobkeeper numbers are public, plus I seem to recall Morrison citing unemployment figures including jobkeeper (13% from memory).
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@barbarian said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@antipodean Yes, but Jobkeeper numbers are public, plus I seem to recall Morrison citing unemployment figures including jobkeeper (13% from memory).
There’s an official unemployment rate based on the ABS labour force collection (currently 7.5%) and then there’s an “effective unemployment rate” that accounts for those officially unemployed plus the increase in those that are not in the labour force as a result of COVID (estimated around 11.5% - 12%).
There’s some other data that show a bit more of a real time picture that the ABS are releasing more frequently than the monthly labour force data that shows PAYG tax withheld which shows how many workers are having income tax paid etc.
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Queensland to close borders to NSW and ACT as state records another coronavirus case
Queensland will close its border to all of New South Wales and the ACT from 1:00am on Saturday.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Queensland to close borders to NSW and ACT as state records another coronavirus case
Queensland will close its border to all of New South Wales and the ACT from 1:00am on Saturday.
I'm shocked
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"it's to protect the Qld economy". Not sure she understands how these things work.
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700+ cases in Vic today
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Australia:
"it's to protect the Qld economy". Not sure she understands how these things work.
to be fair, not having tourists is less worse than having everything shut down
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Ha! There are some great Simpsons political memes out there.
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Really strange sort of a time in Tourism.
The first shutdown we were racing around shutting down, sorting out financiers, trying to help employees, trying to wrap our heads around JobKeeper. Then it was all about how to keep people at least a little bit busy, and perform some maintenance and polish on the parks. Then it was how to re-open before we knew it.
We have had an interim bit where we have been open, but not many through the doors, but with optimism that it should continue to get better as the southern states came on line. Talk of travel bubbles with NZ, Japan, and Korea were glimmers of hope, especially if Aus continued to be a safe looking destination.
Then Victoria. And we just knew what was coming. Victoria being blocked was inevitable. Sydney was a proper blow, and after that the closing of the borders to the whole of NSW was both unsurprising, and in a small way a positive (people from the South East can't pop down to Byron).
Now? We sat in a meeting today and spelled it out. There will not be a domestic boom for us in 2020 at all, in fact we will barely see a tourist from down South. The next positive we could see is maybe Easter next year. But more likely this time next year.
That's 11 months from now. 11 months before we will see any meaningful turnover. 11 months where our remaining 180 staff have to muddle along at ever-reducing JobKeeper amounts. 11 months where we open because it is better to scrape a few hundred a day than nothing.
The way the rest of the World is looking, International tourism is still 18 months away, at the earliest. So we are looking at 2022 before we start to see any "normal" activity. And even then, what does it look like?
And there is nothing we can do about any of it. Nothing we do makes one iota of a difference to our situation. We've done all the slashing and burning it's possible to do. We survive as long as the Government keeps paying our bills.
And with 1 in 5 jobs in Cairns being either in, or supporting, Tourism it's not like all of these people can go and do something else.
Strange, and very depressing times.
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@mariner4life Yeah it really sucks, a couple of mates and I were firming up some Cairns travel plans for September ... looks like we'll be road tripping in NSW instead.
I hope you're able to ride out the downturn, sounds like you're in a tough spot.
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Strange, and very depressing times.
Mate that is fucking horrid.
Queenslanders need to do what is happening here and support the locals. I do think that it is going to get worse though. The more people out of work will remove any spending, even locally. A long road out for most of us.
Enjoy the time with your kids and the new puppy (she/ he will cheer you up too).
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@NTA said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Just got a COVID test after being symptomatic overnight. The nurse was cute behind the mask (nice eyes) but she fucking reamed my brainstem with that fucking swab...
I think I'm in love.
To lighten the mood- she might have fancied you. They are mostly doing oral (yes) now I believe so the "insertions" aren't quite as bad. Good that you enjoyed it though.
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@Snowy said in Coronavirus - Australia:
@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Australia:
Strange, and very depressing times.
Mate that is fucking horrid.
Queenslanders need to do what is happening here and support the locals. I do think that it is going to get worse though. The more people out of work will remove any spending, even locally. A long road out for most of us.
Enjoy the time with your kids and the new puppy (she/ he will cheer you up too).
I'm still actually really busy, and the wife is in the middle of her busy season. So there isn't even more time for that other stuff.
I'm monitoring costs and wages. Applying for Government assistance. Sitting in depressing meetings. Keeping the Bank in the loop.
We have a saving grace, in that our bus wholesale business is still going ahead, and the Electric city buses are starting to kick some goals. It's what is keeping us from throwing our hands in the air and saying "fuck it"
Oh, and i am still trying to get money out of debtors, and dealing with agents who seem to think there won't be any changes to the terms of business. That's always fun.
Consequently, my personal financial situation continues unchanged for now, which i realise is a massive massive blessing. And makes me feel like a piece of shit with some of the decisions i am forced to make.
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as to your "support locals" bit, that has definitely happened. Most of our visitors are locals, or from the broader North Qld area. But to get any serious income, we need Brisbane-ites to get on a plane. That's still a tough sell. We are a long way from anywhere.