-
Biden. His time - better late than never.
-
@Frank said in US Politics:
@Crucial
What is your polling site saying with a couple of days to go?
I searched for the link you posted to it earlier in this thread but couldn't find it.Just double checked and Iowa has flipped with a tiny % lead to Trump and Nevada has become a 'toss up'
The second Maine vote (they are one of the odd states) has also slipped below 5%Biden still polls as not requiring any of the toss ups (ie Trump has to win all of them)
The bad news for Trump is that Wisc, Penn, Minn and Mich have all firmed over a 5% margin for Biden.
Trumps support is well locked in. He only has one red state not firmly in his camp and that is one he is unlikely to lose (Texas) .
Convincing the swing states and flipping a blue one is his focus while Biden can afford to lose some swing ones.Still not something you can call on polls but they are pretty steady and there would need to be alot of mind changing at the last moment, hidden voters and/or a mess with postal votes (quite possible) for things to change much.
The biggest question is whether Biden can show a strong enough win in the early counts for Trump to back off and not fight the results.
-
-
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@canefan said in US Politics:
I can't wait for this to be over
post of the year?
That post can be repurposed into the covid19 threads as well
-
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@canefan ...could also use it in the AB's v Australia series of games.....
The aussies could use it at least.....
-
@Kiwiwomble said in US Politics:
@Crucial this site you use, what did it say about 2016, did it predict Trump winning?
It didn't but then it doesn't aim to predict a winner. It provides a view of the data weighted over time so you can observe how the polls are looking.
I did a bit of looking back because I wanted to understand 'what went wrong' last time and found that nothing really went wrong except that (like this time) the reporting took the polls at face value.
If you were to take this year at face value you would state (as some outlets are) a landslide to Biden with 369 electoral college votes.
When you take away those votes who have polls within a margin of error then the situation is different.
From memory it was only Michigan that flipped on the polls from being 'leaning' (ie 5-10% margin) one way to a result the other, and as we know that was by the tiniest amount.
Trump basically has to have 2016 all over again to win. Have all of the minimal margin states go his way and sneak one other. -
@Frank said in US Politics:
538 is a very highly followed site for aggregating polls.
They currently give Biden an 89% chance of winning the election.
(though he was wrong last time)
@Frank I don't think you understand stats - in 2016, 538's last forecast model gave Trump a 29% chance. So basically they said 1 time in 3 Trump would win. A big ingenuous to day they were wrong - they never said Hillary was gong to win, just that she had more chance, based on their model, fed by others polls.
See here for an analysis on that
-
@Rembrandt said in US Politics:
Polls and betting agencies are definitely saying Biden...but then this keeps happening
and Trump's doing 5 of these a day...
Now that's a Super Spreader!! At least they will get out to vote before they get really sick
-
@Stockcar86 said in US Politics:
@Frank said in US Politics:
538 is a very highly followed site for aggregating polls.
They currently give Biden an 89% chance of winning the election.
(though he was wrong last time)
@Frank I don't think you understand stats - in 2016, 538's last forecast model gave Trump a 29% chance. So basically they said 1 time in 3 Trump would win. A big ingenuous to day they were wrong - they never said Hillary was gong to win, just that she had more chance, based on their model, fed by others polls.
See here for an analysis on that
Okay they were "inaccurate"
They gave Hillary a 2 in 3 chance of victory.
She lost.This time they give Biden a 89% of victory.
Let's see if they are right. -
@Frank said in US Politics:
@Stockcar86 said in US Politics:
@Frank said in US Politics:
538 is a very highly followed site for aggregating polls.
They currently give Biden an 89% chance of winning the election.
(though he was wrong last time)
@Frank I don't think you understand stats - in 2016, 538's last forecast model gave Trump a 29% chance. So basically they said 1 time in 3 Trump would win. A big ingenuous to day they were wrong - they never said Hillary was gong to win, just that she had more chance, based on their model, fed by others polls.
See here for an analysis on that
Okay they were "inaccurate"
They gave Hillary a 2 in 3 chance of victory.
She lost.This time they give Biden a 89% of victory.
Let's see if they are right.I still don't think you understand. They can't be 'right' or 'wrong' here.
-
@Kiwiwomble
I gotta say, the polling firms have it covered.They are never wrong.
US Politics