Coronavirus - Overall
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@mikethesnow I've done a bit of research as when I heard it on the radio I was a very surprised. My best guess is I misheard it as it appears the mortality rate for over 70's is around 16%.
Apparently mortality rate increases are pretty linear across all age groups if you remove people in rest homes - presumably because they are only there because they are so frail. It also appears that cardio pulmonary disease is a bigger risk factor than age, but of course old bastards are much more likely to have CPD
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I posted a link to an article about this a few days ago, but can understand why nobody would want to click on a Newshub link... https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2021/02/coronavirus-the-average-covid-19-victim-had-16-years-of-life-left-in-them-study-finds.html
It's across 81 countries and 1.28 million deaths, notes that the average age of death is 72.9, but 75% are under 75, and that life expectancy increases as people get older, so life expectancy for someone who has reached 70 is in their 80s, but also uses life expectancy data for each country to avoid skewing the outcomes.
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Couldn’t open the link, so might be talking out of my arse but...
Looking at the assumptions implied in the headlines it seems to me that it might not take into account that a large proportion of those deaths already had comorbidities and would thus have statistically been among those that didn’t have those extra 16 years.
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From the study:
This study’s sample presents an average age-at-death of 72.9 years; yet only a fraction of the YLL can be attributed to the individuals in the oldest age brackets. Globally, 44.9% of the total YLL can be attributed to the deaths of individuals between 55 and 75 years old, 30.2% to younger than 55, and 25% to those older than 75. That is, the average figure of 16 YLL includes the years lost from individuals close to the end of their expected lives, but the majority of those years are from individuals with significant remaining life expectancy. Across countries, a substantial proportion of YLL can be traced back to the 55–75 age interval, however there remain stark differences in the relative contribution of the oldest and youngest age groups (Fig. 2, Panel A). These patterns account for the proportion of YLL for each age group out of the global YLL (see Table S7). In higher income countries, a larger proportion of the YLL is borne by the oldest group compared to the youngest age groups. The opposite pattern appears in low and mid-income countries, where a large fraction of the YLL are from individuals dying at ages 55 or younger.
The wealthier the country, the longer old people generally live. Stunning insight again from a study of no worth. Paper doesn't make the effort to explain those dying at 55 are likely to have considerably contributed to their own demise.
Here's a better idea for the authors; YLL by BMI for younger cohort.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:
From the study:
This study’s sample presents an average age-at-death of 72.9 years; yet only a fraction of the YLL can be attributed to the individuals in the oldest age brackets. Globally, 44.9% of the total YLL can be attributed to the deaths of individuals between 55 and 75 years old, 30.2% to younger than 55, and 25% to those older than 75. That is, the average figure of 16 YLL includes the years lost from individuals close to the end of their expected lives, but the majority of those years are from individuals with significant remaining life expectancy. Across countries, a substantial proportion of YLL can be traced back to the 55–75 age interval, however there remain stark differences in the relative contribution of the oldest and youngest age groups (Fig. 2, Panel A). These patterns account for the proportion of YLL for each age group out of the global YLL (see Table S7). In higher income countries, a larger proportion of the YLL is borne by the oldest group compared to the youngest age groups. The opposite pattern appears in low and mid-income countries, where a large fraction of the YLL are from individuals dying at ages 55 or younger.
The wealthier the country, the longer old people generally live. Stunning insight again from a study of no worth. Paper doesn't make the effort to explain those dying at 55 are likely to have considerably contributed to their own demise.
Here's a better idea for the authors; YLL by BMI for younger cohort.
Does it take in to consideration how hard those years are too?
A 55-70 year old living in the UK has it so much easier than a 55-70 year old in Kenya for example
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@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:
From the study:
This study’s sample presents an average age-at-death of 72.9 years; yet only a fraction of the YLL can be attributed to the individuals in the oldest age brackets. Globally, 44.9% of the total YLL can be attributed to the deaths of individuals between 55 and 75 years old, 30.2% to younger than 55, and 25% to those older than 75. That is, the average figure of 16 YLL includes the years lost from individuals close to the end of their expected lives, but the majority of those years are from individuals with significant remaining life expectancy. Across countries, a substantial proportion of YLL can be traced back to the 55–75 age interval, however there remain stark differences in the relative contribution of the oldest and youngest age groups (Fig. 2, Panel A). These patterns account for the proportion of YLL for each age group out of the global YLL (see Table S7). In higher income countries, a larger proportion of the YLL is borne by the oldest group compared to the youngest age groups. The opposite pattern appears in low and mid-income countries, where a large fraction of the YLL are from individuals dying at ages 55 or younger.
The wealthier the country, the longer old people generally live. Stunning insight again from a study of no worth. Paper doesn't make the effort to explain those dying at 55 are likely to have considerably contributed to their own demise.
Here's a better idea for the authors; YLL by BMI for younger cohort.
Does it take in to consideration how hard those years are too?
A 55-70 year old living in the UK has it so much easier than a 55-70 year old in Kenya for example
Not sure about the specifics, but it did take into account different life expectancies.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
No surprises: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-obesity-idUSKBN2AW1X0
Certainly goes a long way to explaining the USA and UK
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@canefan said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
No surprises: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-obesity-idUSKBN2AW1X0
Certainly goes a long way to explaining the USA and UK
About time the UK messaging changed to include
Move more, eat less
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Definitely one of the pieces of the puzzle (obesity) along with age, public response to authority, government competence, public health competence, global interconnectivity etc etc.
Of course, most obese region of the world is our neck of the woods, South Pacific.
Dont know where that Reuters article on that study gets UK as 4th most obese country in world? Seem to be ranked in the 30s.
Regions with more obesity than UK, South Pacific and Caribbean. Can explain low impact by ability to close off islands. But other region with high obesity is Gulf Arabia, which include areas extremely globally interconnect as global airline hubs.
It would be interesting to see a study that deep dived into Fench Polynesia, Bermuda, UAE, Kuwait, Hong Kong, Guam, Saudi. Places with high obesity rates that also got reasonably exposed to covid outbreaks.
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@rapido said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Definitely one of the pieces of the puzzle (obesity) along with age, public response to authority, government competence, public health competence, global interconnectivity etc etc.
Of course, most obese region of the world is our neck of the woods, South Pacific.
Dont know where that Reuters article on that study gets UK as 4th most obese country in world? Seem to be ranked in the 30s.
Regions with more obesity than UK, South Pacific and Caribbean. Can explain low impact by ability to close off islands. But other region with high obesity is Gulf Arabia, which include areas extremely globally interconnect as global airline hubs.
It would be interesting to see a study that deep dived into Fench Polynesia, Bermuda, UAE, Kuwait, Hong Kong, Guam, Saudi. Places with high obesity rates that also got reasonably exposed to covid outbreaks.
Saudi has an extraordinary proportion of its population under 30.
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@majorrage said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@rapido UAE is an emerging and developing economy? Not sure that's right .... guess it depends on your view what that means.
agreed, stupid classification of UAE.
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@snowy said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@rapido said in Coronavirus - Overall:
agreed, stupid classification of UAE.
The second graph was clearly drawn by an Israeli. They aren't usually too fond of the UAE.
Didn't they sign a treaty recently? I remember Trump being there