Coronavirus - Overall
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@catogrande TBF thier numbers must surely be significantly higher than they are reporting, not because they are hiding anything, more they dont have the capacity to test and report sufficiently?
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@taniwharugby I would think you’re right in that and I’m sure there are gaps in the reporting all around the world too. But yeah the sheer numbers and the infrastructure would make accurate reporting difficult over there. But still, given those numbers there is a long way to go for them to match some of the European countries, UK included. I’ll search out the relevant data to compare.
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OK. So according to Worldometers the stats for cases per 1M population and deaths for per 1M population for India and the UK are:
India
Cases 11,396
Deaths 136UK
Cases 64,556
Deaths 1,869 -
@catogrande although id guess the margin for error for uk would be say +/- 3% whereas India likely +/- an awful lot.
Must be huge swathes of India where there is no testing, similarly parts of other densely populated nations....'cept China of course.
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@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@catogrande although id guess the margin for error for uk would be say +/- 3% whereas India likely +/- an awful lot.
Must be huge swathes of India where there is no testing, similarly parts of other densely populated nations....'cept China of course.
For sure re India but there's still a log way to go for them. Without wishing to be too callous though, they have plenty of people, on a wider scale deaths are not the issue. Health infrastructure is.
Re China, hmm, do we trust the governance...?
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@catogrande oh yea I dont think INdia is under reporting, I just dont think they could probably keep up due to the sheer numbers for testing the living or dead.
Quite worrying really
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@rapido said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Current surge mostly Mumbai and Delhi at the moment. So national numbers wont look as bad at moment as it will likely get. Unless they can do an Italy/Lombardy first wave and contain it.
I just fear the numbers here. So many people. So little order.
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Thoughts please
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@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Thoughts please
The mutation rate might be expected to be fairly constant. Most mutations, though, are disastrous and therefore not replicated.
The major variable is the amount of virus in the community. More virus means more mutations and a higher probability that one would be viable.
So do lockdowns lead to more or less virus in the community?
In the early days I’d say much less — that’s the idea. Which means less chance of mutation.
But could also be argued that over longer term getting to level of herd immunity minimises the long term level of virus and lowers chance of ‘successful’ mutations.
My instinct is vaccinate the vulnerable and then let the virus rip in summer. In other words, end lockdown whilst continuing to vaccinate.
That seems to hold for a land locked nation. International travel strikes me as requiring judgement as to which travellers can enter freely , and which need to be quarantined.
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@catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
OK. So according to Worldometers the stats for cases per 1M population and deaths for per 1M population for India and the UK are:
India
Cases 11,396
Deaths 136UK
Cases 64,556
Deaths 1,869I presume those stats are go to whoa.
Right now the numbers for 2021 only are much more relevant.
And increasingly only the last month.
It used to be that being skinny was a big advantage when facing virus. Indian outbreak may suggest that no longer applies.
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@pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
OK. So according to Worldometers the stats for cases per 1M population and deaths for per 1M population for India and the UK are:
India
Cases 11,396
Deaths 136UK
Cases 64,556
Deaths 1,869I presume those stats are go to whoa.
Right now the numbers for 2021 only are much more relevant.
And increasingly only the last month.
It used to be that being skinny was a big advantage when facing virus. Indian outbreak may suggest that no longer applies.
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@catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@pakman Definitely on an horrendous trend but a long way to go. However was not really my initial point, which was despite the relative to UK low percentages, their health system is in crisis.
India is not a place to not be wealthy.
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Interesting how low per 100k India's numbers have been so far, and still are at the monet.
Hungary was pre-selected in that graph. So I looked up numbers in worldometers. According to the worldometers chart. Hungary currently has the worst global death rate so far at 2,799 deaths per million after 2 waves (almost). By my maths, if worse case and the entire world was to have Hungary's death rate that would result in 19.5 million deaths?
Not likely though, based on Hungary's population age pyramid compared to global.
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@rapido said in Coronavirus - Overall:
By my maths, if worse case and the entire world was to have Hungary's death rate that would result in 19.5 million deaths?
I haven't checked them but while the number sounds like a lot, that's about 0.26% of the world's population.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@rapido said in Coronavirus - Overall:
By my maths, if worse case and the entire world was to have Hungary's death rate that would result in 19.5 million deaths?
I haven't checked them but while the number sounds like a lot, that's about 0.26% of the world's population.
Yes. I'm trying to work out if that would particularly stand out even in the annual global death rate fluctuations. (Even if assuming no displacement)
2020, pandemic year, had a 0.440% 'worse' death rate than the year before. But that year (2019) also had a 0.440% 'worse' death rate than the year before that. So, no it wouldn't.
But. The last 2 and a bit years is the first time in 70 years that global death rates have gotten worse. But looks like they've been projected to get worse anyway on UN projections (I assume global ageing)