Coronavirus - New Zealand
-
How are they going to keep up the policy of removing people who test positive from their homes and putting them into
concentration campsquarantine facilities if the pandemic grows larger in numbers and locations?That is the most authoritarian part of this. At least in the UK when I got covid I could self isolate at home. Imagine being locked up like a criminal?
-
@tewaio said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
How are they going to keep up the policy of removing people who test positive from their homes and putting them into
concentration campsquarantine facilities if the pandemic grows larger in numbers and locations?That is the most authoritarian part of this. At least in the UK when I got covid I could self isolate at home. Imagine being locked up like a criminal?
Yep makes me not want to get tested
-
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp so NPC is gone at L3...
Pretty much, yep.
You could have a Southland/Canterbury/ Ta$man mini tourney, unless they extend lockdown to exclude Wellington (Which makes some sense). Possibly include Wellington in there at L2, with a border at the Rimutakas and the Kapiti somewhere.
-
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Just goes to prove elimination just won't work.
I hate re-entering this discussion, but goddamn. Shitty timing on new cases outside Auckland.
NZZP's prediction:
L3 for Auckland
L3 for North Island (can't isolate the Waikato)and then cross our fingers and hope.
Thing is, if 5 weeks at L4 can't stop the spread, then will 6 or 7 really do it, with a population that is increasingly being less compliant? I think that's going to be the trigger to move down to L3, and go back to where we started: flattening the curve. But - get ready for a summer or two of restrictions. Delta's going to be in the community, and it's going to be out there fore a while.
At least I can still get takeaways at level 3
-
@mn5 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
At least I can still get takeaways at level 3
Takeaways, business can partially reopen with click/collect, building sites restart, everything starts to move again. It's really importnat - takeaways are a small part of it. The framing in the media of L4+takeaways ignores the effect on the economy and the opportunity for people and small businesses to actually not go bankrupt
-
I see the Herald is running a 90% Project. The push for NZ to become the most vaccinated on earth, by some distance.
Putting aside this lofty goal for a second, how do they come up with the number of 4.21m elegible? Is that over 12's? Must be right, because that's c. 85% of total population depending on what estimate you use?
Or is it over 14? I see there are estimated to be 835k in that cohort, which would make up that gap above 4.21m?
Anyway, it looks like NZ has now pinned its path to this 90% figure. 90% of 4.21m. So only 10% allowed for the medically challenged, the group not wanting to jab their kids, the general sceptics, and the anti-vaxers.
Good luck Team New Zealand, stay kind.
-
@voodoo fuck you.
Dont tell Cindy I wasnt being kind.
I recall one expert 6 months back saying NZ needed 90% vaccination to return to normality...I cannot see us getting there without mandatory vaccinations, which will then bring its own set of issues.
LIttle saying he doesnt think we would drop to L4 again...Cindy saying plan still on target to allow self isolations...Hipkins saying it isnt...
-
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo fuck you.
Dont tell Cindy I wasnt being kind.
I recall one expert 6 months back saying NZ needed 90% vaccination to return to normality...I cannot see us getting there without mandatory vaccinations, which will then bring its own set of issues.
LIttle saying he doesnt think we would drop to L4 again...Cindy saying plan still on target to allow self isolations...Hipkins saying it isnt...
No harm in a newspaper driving a high target. If they can persuade people that's what is need to get out of having lockdowns and it drives more vaxxing then good. It doesn't seem to be based on any official target.
In fact the govt have avoided giving a target because the assessment is far more complex than an overall percentage eg the % of at risk people, the % in densely populated areas etc. -
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo fuck you.
Dont tell Cindy I wasnt being kind.
I recall one expert 6 months back saying NZ needed 90% vaccination to return to normality...I cannot see us getting there without mandatory vaccinations, which will then bring its own set of issues.
LIttle saying he doesnt think we would drop to L4 again...Cindy saying plan still on target to allow self isolations...Hipkins saying it isnt...
They can't seem to get their stories straight....
-
@crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo fuck you.
Dont tell Cindy I wasnt being kind.
I recall one expert 6 months back saying NZ needed 90% vaccination to return to normality...I cannot see us getting there without mandatory vaccinations, which will then bring its own set of issues.
LIttle saying he doesnt think we would drop to L4 again...Cindy saying plan still on target to allow self isolations...Hipkins saying it isnt...
No harm in a newspaper driving a high target. If they can persuade people that's what is need to get out of having lockdowns and it drives more vaxxing then good. It doesn't seem to be based on any official target.
In fact the govt have avoided giving a target because the assessment is far more complex than an overall percentage eg the % of at risk people, the % in densely populated areas etc.The government should absolutely be sharing what targets they have in mind, even if broken down by demographics. It's crazy they haven't said anything yet given that is the key to getting out of lockdowns. Our media needs to go to town on them over that, the government is there to serve us, not the other way around.
-
@no-quarter said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo fuck you.
Dont tell Cindy I wasnt being kind.
I recall one expert 6 months back saying NZ needed 90% vaccination to return to normality...I cannot see us getting there without mandatory vaccinations, which will then bring its own set of issues.
LIttle saying he doesnt think we would drop to L4 again...Cindy saying plan still on target to allow self isolations...Hipkins saying it isnt...
No harm in a newspaper driving a high target. If they can persuade people that's what is need to get out of having lockdowns and it drives more vaxxing then good. It doesn't seem to be based on any official target.
In fact the govt have avoided giving a target because the assessment is far more complex than an overall percentage eg the % of at risk people, the % in densely populated areas etc.The government should absolutely be sharing what targets they have in mind, even if broken down by demographics. It's crazy they haven't said anything yet given that is the key to getting out of lockdowns. Our media needs to go to town on them over that, the government is there to serve us, not the other way around.
I can see why they aren't, and why it isn't sensible.
For one thing there are too many variables, two they need to make the call based on other factors as well, then you have the issue that people can be really stupid and will stop getting vaxxed, once the target is close.Look at the UK. The rate has stalled big time since 'freedom day'. Even the rate of second Vax implies that many haven't gone back for a second shot.
So if your driver is to get as many as possible double-done you wouldn't want to 'open up' until the rate has slowed to the point that the balance is now counter productive.
I also think that they are letting the rest of the world provide the stats to see effectiveness of certain levels
IMO we now need to follow through on the efforts made with the Auckland outbreak and use it as impetus as much as possible.
Once we are back at L2 everywhere then targets can be talked about as you then have both the carrot and the stick -
@l_n_p said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Te Punaha Matatini modelling
If you read this, you may see why the NZ government is being quiet and just telling everying to get vaxed. I need to re-read, it's hard going but from what I can glean, key points and a few sections ...
With Delta, population (herd) immunity appears to require 80%-97%+ vaccination depending on infectiousness of Delta. It may well be unreachable, the modelling seems to contradict itself tbh but looks unreachable in real world terms assuming a Delta R0 infectiousness of 6.5 (modelled) - 7.0 (current UK assumption).
"If 𝑅 = 6 (which could represent a highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant such as Delta), population immunity would require approximately 97% of the population, something which is unlikely to be achievable in practice."
The modelling (to me) looks conservative as it compares three models of infectiuosness with R0 (uncontrolled) rates of 3.0, 4.5 and 6.0 as the worst case modelled ... but (big BUT) in the UK Delta is being estimated at 5-8, normal UK assumption based obviously on real world experience seems to be 7 now.
Looks like no matter what there will be cases and outbreaks and need for ongoing controls needed in NZ.
Basically, if 5-10 internationally introduced cases a day get through NZ borders and spreads, NZ i.e. NZ healthcare system is (politely) f*cked ... my personal conclusion being that MIQ might exist through much of 2022 tbh though the report is VERY cautious on this.
"Together these results suggest that, until we get close to the population immunity threshold, a major public health response that included significant interventions would still be required to control any resurgent outbreaks and prevent a major epidemic. Nonetheless, as vaccination coverage increases, it may be possible for the requirement for 14 day government-managed isolation period to be replaced with a combination of testing, shorter quarantine periods or home isolation for arrivals from low-risk countries. Future work will model the risk from different border policies and different traveller risk profiles. However, strong border restrictions designed to keep COVID-19 out of the community are likely to be required until very high vaccination coverage is achieved nationally. "
The problem is the same modelling pretty much also says population immunity would require an unachievable 98% vaccination for a Delta R0 of 6.0, right?
Happy if anyone else want's to read through the modelling/stats and can paint a rosier picture than I can do ... because I want to get back at some point, without MIQ and all the costs.
The REAL questions journos and kiwis should be asking (imho) are about NZ healthcare capacity, both ICU and hospitalization, and how come other countries can cope. But that's another story.
-
@no-quarter said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo fuck you.
Dont tell Cindy I wasnt being kind.
I recall one expert 6 months back saying NZ needed 90% vaccination to return to normality...I cannot see us getting there without mandatory vaccinations, which will then bring its own set of issues.
LIttle saying he doesnt think we would drop to L4 again...Cindy saying plan still on target to allow self isolations...Hipkins saying it isnt...
No harm in a newspaper driving a high target. If they can persuade people that's what is need to get out of having lockdowns and it drives more vaxxing then good. It doesn't seem to be based on any official target.
In fact the govt have avoided giving a target because the assessment is far more complex than an overall percentage eg the % of at risk people, the % in densely populated areas etc.The government should absolutely be sharing what targets they have in mind, even if broken down by demographics. It's crazy they haven't said anything yet given that is the key to getting out of lockdowns. Our media needs to go to town on them over that, the government is there to serve us, not the other way around.
While I agree the government needs to tell us more about their plan, I don't know if there's actually much benefit to targets in our current situation. The most important thing about other countries targets is that they are in the form: "when we reach X%, then you can do Y". Without ending the elimination strategy, what would happen once we reach the target?
We had a huge boost to the demand for vaccinations due to the outbreak, due to the fact people were scared they were going to become infected. But by trying to eliminate the outbreak, you're actually removing the biggest motivator for people to get the vaccine.
If we're wanting to motivate the people who are putting off getting vaccinated, then we need something like "Once we reach X% or Y date then we're no longer continuing with our elimination strategy." The only problem is, you can't really announce that while currently trying to eliminate it, can you? So instead we're buying time to get vaccinated while also slowing down the rate that we do them.
-
@l_n_p thing is, we need to build an immunity naturally too, but cant through lockdowns, but obviously needs to be done gradually so as to not put the burden on the health system, a controlled Delta Spread...start in the South Island
-
A vaccination target is pretty irrelevant IMO, therefore I am fairly sanguine about it.
NZ won't meet a target and then open up. It won't be our decision .
The virus will break out. Either from this outbreak or the next one. And our vax rates will then feed into a modelling scenario.
-
So... on results so far the Foodstuff truck driver hasn't resulted in any infections elsewhere in 'the golden triangle' it seems. So far the silence appears to be good news.
Edit, just seen on the Stuff newsfeed:
2 hours ago
Here's a bit more info on wastewater
Following confirmation of the three cases in northern Hauraki, ESR is currently sampling from Kawakawa Bay and Pukekohe. Samples are being collected from three sites in the region. In addition, new samples are being collected from Cambridge, Ngatea, and Paeroa. Results are expected later in the week.
-
@anonymous said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
If we're wanting to motivate the people who are putting off getting vaccinated, then we need something like "Once we reach X% or Y date then we're no longer continuing with our elimination strategy." The only problem is, you can't really announce that while currently trying to eliminate it, can you? So instead we're buying time to get vaccinated while also slowing down the rate that we do them.
"When we reach 90% you can have a picnic", like NSW? Sorry, I agree with you totally. Or like the UK you can say ... "we're opening up on Date X when everyone will have had an opportunity to be vaccinated. At your own risk now folks! ..."
UK is looking stable, cases starting to drop but schools now are just back, Universities soon.
Will be interesting to track hospitalisations over the next month. Case numbers are far less the point now.It's weird some reason hotspots are all in Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland now. England relatively good. Vaccination rates and prior immunity is all pretty comparable across the regions, so why?
Sometimes it's really hard to see how/why Covid ebbs and flows at a macro level, and the experts I trust are the ones who say "well, we also don't really understand yet, it can be a bit random"