Hong Kong
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Looks like things are about to escalate into something pretty horrific
.That's the thing with freedom you only really appreciate it when it's being taken away. If the Sydney stabber is an argument against the 2nd amendment then HK could very well be an argument for it.
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@Rembrandt said in Hong Kong:
Looks like things are about to escalate into something pretty horrific
.That's the thing with freedom you only really appreciate it when it's being taken away. If the Sydney stabber is an argument against the 2nd amendment then HK could very well be an argument for it.
I'm wondering what you thing the something horrific is going to be? Surely the military will just squash the protesters out?
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Despite the best rhetoric of the NRA, I'm not sure how the second amendment really enables citizens to stand up to the modern US military/government, nor how the right to arms would enable Hong Kong residents in any confrontation with a modern day army.
I do have that sinking feeling about what may happen though.
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@Hooroo Something like this:
I can't remember the figure exactly but the amount of pro-democracy people protesting amounted to most of the country. That will take quite some quashing and I'm not sure anyone will want to risk coming to their aid.
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@Rembrandt said in Hong Kong:
@Hooroo Something like this:
I can't remember the figure exactly but the amount of pro-democracy people protesting amounted to most of the country. That will take quite some quashing and I'm not sure anyone will want to risk coming to their aid.
Yeah but it isn't a democratic process. They are under China rule so they need to bear the consequences if they don't obey? Surely?
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@Rembrandt said in Hong Kong:
@Hooroo Something like this:
I can't remember the figure exactly but the amount of pro-democracy people protesting amounted to most of the country.
7.5 Million protesting? That is quite the army of people
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@Donsteppa said in Hong Kong:
Despite the best rhetoric of the NRA, I'm not sure how the second amendment really enables citizens to stand up to the modern US military/government, nor how the right to arms would enable Hong Kong residents in any confrontation with a modern day army.
Probably should be on a thread of its own but I'm not so sure. If it were a case of simply destroying a location then sure military will win every time, but if its a case of occupation against resistance it could be very different. Compare the volume of hunters by State in the US vs country army sizes. At the very least an invading force would have to think very carefully about what they are doing, its an expensive business and could leave them vulnerable on other fronts especially with potential modern day independent media optics.
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@Rembrandt said in Hong Kong:
@Hooroo Yeah that does seem off, they had some method of working it out on the report but I can't find it, they were pretty massive though.
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So it has happened before with a similar volume? I don't see this lasting very long.
China can and will play the long game
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The whole thing saddens me deeply. Hong Kong is my second home and I still have many friends there. I gave up my right to vote a couple of months ago as I haven't been there for 2 years now. It seems timely as a vote is worthless now anyway. I also lost might right to run for legislative council, also a pointless exercise it seems.
I have to say that I thought it would come to a head much earlier - just a few years after the handover - but Beijing have been gently, gently about it all. I suppose complete autonomy / democratic process was never likely and shouldn't have been expected. Just a shame and HK people are generally a passive apolitical group.
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So it has happened before with a similar volume? I don't see this lasting very long.
China can and will play the long gameYes happened before but not on this scale, I was living there at the time.
It is also much deeper than extradition. Democracy and self governance come into play. China will not allow another Taiwan. Hong Kong people don't want their chief executive to be Beijing appointed either, so going to take an awful lot of diplomacy to fix it, or it will go horribly wrong.
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So it has happened before with a similar volume? I don't see this lasting very long.
China can and will play the long gameYes happened before but not on this scale, I was living there at the time.
It is also much deeper than extradition. Democracy and self governance come into play. China will not allow another Taiwan. Hong Kong people don't want their chief executive to be Beijing appointed either, so going to take an awful lot of diplomacy to fix it, or it will go horribly wrong.
Realistically, what is "Horribly Wrong"?
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So it has happened before with a similar volume? I don't see this lasting very long.
China can and will play the long gameYes happened before but not on this scale, I was living there at the time.
It is also much deeper than extradition. Democracy and self governance come into play. China will not allow another Taiwan. Hong Kong people don't want their chief executive to be Beijing appointed either, so going to take an awful lot of diplomacy to fix it, or it will go horribly wrong.
Realistically, what is "Horribly Wrong"?
Complete Beijing control through military power. Remember Tiananmen Square was a very similar democratic protest?1989? "Official" figures at around 300 dead (read into that what you will).
That, to me, is horribly wrong.
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So it has happened before with a similar volume? I don't see this lasting very long.
China can and will play the long gameYes happened before but not on this scale, I was living there at the time.
It is also much deeper than extradition. Democracy and self governance come into play. China will not allow another Taiwan. Hong Kong people don't want their chief executive to be Beijing appointed either, so going to take an awful lot of diplomacy to fix it, or it will go horribly wrong.
Realistically, what is "Horribly Wrong"?
Complete Beijing control through military power. Remember Tiananmen Square was a very similar democratic protest?1989? "Official" figures at around 300 dead (read into that what you will).
That, to me, is horribly wrong.
Can you see that happening in this day in age? I can't. Sure, they maybe casualties that should have been prevented but I don't see 100's dead sort of thing
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Lam’s press conference yesterday was very telling of the predicament HK find themselves. From a political perspective going into that presser knowing the protests have been going on for almost 3 months and not being able to provide any answers was always going to be carnage.
She has no authority and her position is largely symbolic now. China can’t get rid of her because whether they appreciate it or not, that would inflame and escalate the protests. On the other hand she can’t do anything about the legislation.
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So it has happened before with a similar volume? I don't see this lasting very long.
China can and will play the long gameYes happened before but not on this scale, I was living there at the time.
It is also much deeper than extradition. Democracy and self governance come into play. China will not allow another Taiwan. Hong Kong people don't want their chief executive to be Beijing appointed either, so going to take an awful lot of diplomacy to fix it, or it will go horribly wrong.
Realistically, what is "Horribly Wrong"?
Complete Beijing control through military power. Remember Tiananmen Square was a very similar democratic protest?1989? "Official" figures at around 300 dead (read into that what you will).
That, to me, is horribly wrong.
Can you see that happening in this day in age? I can't. Sure, they maybe casualties that should have been prevented but I don't see 100's dead sort of thing
Really? It wasn't expected in 1989 either. Things escalate and it will depend on the protesters as well.
Beijing will do whatever they see fit to retain control of Hong Kong. I just hope that it doesn't happen.
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So it has happened before with a similar volume? I don't see this lasting very long.
China can and will play the long gameYes happened before but not on this scale, I was living there at the time.
It is also much deeper than extradition. Democracy and self governance come into play. China will not allow another Taiwan. Hong Kong people don't want their chief executive to be Beijing appointed either, so going to take an awful lot of diplomacy to fix it, or it will go horribly wrong.
Realistically, what is "Horribly Wrong"?
Complete Beijing control through military power. Remember Tiananmen Square was a very similar democratic protest?1989? "Official" figures at around 300 dead (read into that what you will).
That, to me, is horribly wrong.
Can you see that happening in this day in age? I can't. Sure, they maybe casualties that should have been prevented but I don't see 100's dead sort of thing
Really? It wasn't expected in 1989 either. Things escalate and it will depend on the protesters as well.
Beijing will do whatever they see fit to retain control of Hong Kong. I just hope that it doesn't happen.
I think the difference between now and 30 years ago is that China won't want all the footage of carnage being televised throughout the world. That won't help things in their favour.
I also need to say that I am fairly ignorant around this but I don't see this turning into a small massacre.
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So it has happened before with a similar volume? I don't see this lasting very long.
China can and will play the long gameYes happened before but not on this scale, I was living there at the time.
It is also much deeper than extradition. Democracy and self governance come into play. China will not allow another Taiwan. Hong Kong people don't want their chief executive to be Beijing appointed either, so going to take an awful lot of diplomacy to fix it, or it will go horribly wrong.
Realistically, what is "Horribly Wrong"?
Complete Beijing control through military power. Remember Tiananmen Square was a very similar democratic protest?1989? "Official" figures at around 300 dead (read into that what you will).
That, to me, is horribly wrong.
Can you see that happening in this day in age? I can't. Sure, they maybe casualties that should have been prevented but I don't see 100's dead sort of thing
Really? It wasn't expected in 1989 either. Things escalate and it will depend on the protesters as well.
Beijing will do whatever they see fit to retain control of Hong Kong. I just hope that it doesn't happen.
I think the difference between now and 30 years ago is that China won't want all the footage of carnage being televised throughout the world. That won't help things in their favour.
I also need to say that I am fairly ignorant around this but I don't see this turning into a small massacre.
Hope that you are correct and yes you are coming across as slightly naive. 30 years ago Beijing were made to look bad politically, so they quashed it. Beijing are generally pretty passive but if this makes them look bad - like 1989- who knows? Already using rubber bullets, tear gas, etc, some pretty strong tactics to break up protests and that is just HK police. Let the PLA in there...
"Beijing’s condemnation has become more ominous, with warnings that those who play with fire will “perish by it.” Was one quote that I read from a spokesperson. Hopefully it is all bluff, but they know how to wield the sword.
I am obviously more emotionally invested in this than most, but I also have some experience.
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The upside to these protests is the world is seeing the true nature of China more clearly.
Due to its economic power and totalitarian ways, it looms as by far the most dangerous threat to Western civilization.
Would love to see it take a hard tumble or for Europe and America to unite against it, pulling their money and companies out. -
So it has happened before with a similar volume? I don't see this lasting very long.
China can and will play the long gameYes happened before but not on this scale, I was living there at the time.
It is also much deeper than extradition. Democracy and self governance come into play. China will not allow another Taiwan. Hong Kong people don't want their chief executive to be Beijing appointed either, so going to take an awful lot of diplomacy to fix it, or it will go horribly wrong.
Realistically, what is "Horribly Wrong"?
Complete Beijing control through military power. Remember Tiananmen Square was a very similar democratic protest?1989? "Official" figures at around 300 dead (read into that what you will).
That, to me, is horribly wrong.
Can you see that happening in this day in age? I can't. Sure, they maybe casualties that should have been prevented but I don't see 100's dead sort of thing
Really? It wasn't expected in 1989 either. Things escalate and it will depend on the protesters as well.
Beijing will do whatever they see fit to retain control of Hong Kong. I just hope that it doesn't happen.
I think the difference between now and 30 years ago is that China won't want all the footage of carnage being televised throughout the world. That won't help things in their favour.
I also need to say that I am fairly ignorant around this but I don't see this turning into a small massacre.
I don’t think they give a fuck what the world thinks , they don’t care what anyone thinks about this
How China Turned a City Into a Prison (Published 2019)
Children are interrogated. Neighbors become informants. Mosques are monitored. Cameras are everywhere.
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So it has happened before with a similar volume? I don't see this lasting very long.
China can and will play the long gameYes happened before but not on this scale, I was living there at the time.
It is also much deeper than extradition. Democracy and self governance come into play. China will not allow another Taiwan. Hong Kong people don't want their chief executive to be Beijing appointed either, so going to take an awful lot of diplomacy to fix it, or it will go horribly wrong.
Realistically, what is "Horribly Wrong"?
Complete Beijing control through military power. Remember Tiananmen Square was a very similar democratic protest?1989? "Official" figures at around 300 dead (read into that what you will).
That, to me, is horribly wrong.
Can you see that happening in this day in age? I can't. Sure, they maybe casualties that should have been prevented but I don't see 100's dead sort of thing
Really? It wasn't expected in 1989 either. Things escalate and it will depend on the protesters as well.
Beijing will do whatever they see fit to retain control of Hong Kong. I just hope that it doesn't happen.
I think the difference between now and 30 years ago is that China won't want all the footage of carnage being televised throughout the world. That won't help things in their favour.
I also need to say that I am fairly ignorant around this but I don't see this turning into a small massacre.
I don’t think they give a fuck what the world thinks , they don’t care what anyone thinks about this
How China Turned a City Into a Prison (Published 2019)
Children are interrogated. Neighbors become informants. Mosques are monitored. Cameras are everywhere.
I think they are smart enough to know that if there is a massacre in Hong Kong led by the mainland, the economic impact would be substantial enough to potentially cripple them.
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@Snowy I think they will do whatever they feel they need too to get the desired outcome. As you mentioned they've already been applying pressure through strong arm tactics, and I'd expect that will escalate into broader violence which is tragic. I know a couple of old school mates who have set their lives up over there and have absolutely loved the place - really sad that that HK is being swept away.
Weren't all those white shirted hoods from a 'gang'? I'd expect their numbers to grow substantially and for them to look much fitter and more 'militant' if China takes a non-uniformed approach.@Frank what the international community will do around HK as a trade and business hub is interesting. Will it be a shadow of it's former self under tighter Chinese rule? will everyone gap it? where do they go!? crazy stuff.
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@Snowy from the people you know in HK, are they pretty informed on how dangerous China is to them?
I have a mate originally from a Chinese coastal city whose pretty woke to it all mainly due to the HK influence in his city. Has some pretty incredible stories, the government reach is pretty long and there are approaches from government types even in foreign countries (had one such occurrence when we were at a movie together). He writes about it but all under an assumed name due to the danger to his family. Reading stories like the below doesn't surprise me in the least, add in huge re-education camps and organ harvesting from political prisoners and you can see why HK folk need to stand up hard right now regardless of consequences.
A student attended a protest at an Australian uni. Days later Chinese officials visited his family
Apparent intimidation tactics suggest the Chinese government carried out surveillance during the demonstration at the University of Queensland.
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@Rembrandt said in Hong Kong:
@Snowy from the people you know in HK, are they pretty informed on how dangerous China is to them?
Yes. That is why they are protesting and that is why they are worried. It was also why Britain gave so many BNO passports during the handover, and Beijing agreed to a special HKSAR passport - so that people could leave. It was actually done reasonably well by comparison to Brexit (low bar I know).
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@Rembrandt said in Hong Kong:
@Snowy from the people you know in HK, are they pretty informed on how dangerous China is to them?
I have a mate originally from a Chinese coastal city whose pretty woke to it all mainly due to the HK influence in his city. Has some pretty incredible stories, the government reach is pretty long and there are approaches from government types even in foreign countries (had one such occurrence when we were at a movie together). He writes about it but all under an assumed name due to the danger to his family. Reading stories like the below doesn't surprise me in the least, add in huge re-education camps and organ harvesting from political prisoners and you can see why HK folk need to stand up hard right now regardless of consequences.
Apparent intimidation tactics suggest the Chinese government carried out surveillance during the demonstration at the University of Queensland.
regardless OF CONSEQUENCE? (sTUPID CAPSLOCK)
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@Hooroo if this sort of stuff can happen as far away as New Zealand... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/23/im-being-watched-anne-marie-brady-the-china-critic-living-in-fear-of-beijing
“Beginning in late 2017, Brady has had her home burgled and her office broken into twice. Her family car has been tampered with, she has received a threatening letter (“You are the next”) and answered numerous, anonymous phone calls in the middle of the night, despite having an unlisted number. The latest came at 3am on the day her family returned home after a Christmas break. “I’m being watched”, she says."
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Ah yes One country; two systems i.e. Our system and the one we pretend to let you have.
And therein lies the truth, unfortunately. It has taken them a while to get to it.
It's bloody awful though for the people. They have had colonialism - twice. Their own preference for capitalism or socialism is ignored and they did ignore it all for along time until...
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@Snowy yep. Plus Hong Kong is nowhere near as important to China in relative terms as it was in 97.
I work for a HK headquartered company. Always had very strong relationship with Beijing (Chair was on the Organising Committee for the 10th anniversary of the handback etc).
The internal reports we are getting and the warnings about staff remote working etc are the type we normally see from Africa
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I guess the test will be to see how much the protesters are willing to sacrifice. If sufficient numbers are willing to die and shed blood then I can't see it ending well.
I don't think Beijing gives a shit about the optics. They are an economic superpower in their own right and have plenty of countries in their pocket (Australia amongst them). The outrage will probably only last a week until people get distracted by Twitter or something a Kardashian has done. Beijing will probably happily take the short-term negative publicity if it means subduing HK permanently. They couldn't get away with it in 97 but they could now.
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@Rancid-Schnitzel given the existing tensions with the US, I don’t think it will boil over quickly because if this issue escalates with the world watching (many countries citizenry are being affected by the airport strikes for example), then any lack of action by Beijing or any hardline action by Beijing will get entangled.
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@ACT-Crusader said in Hong Kong:
@Rancid-Schnitzel given the existing tensions with the US, I don’t think it will boil over quickly because if this issue escalates with the world watching (many countries citizenry are being affected by the airport strikes for example), then any lack of action by Beijing or any hardline action by Beijing will get entangled.
For sure, but so many countries have hitched their wagons to China and are dependent on them. Furthermore, no country is willing to go to war with China over this.
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Another media item this morning in the 'if that can happen here, what could happen across a small land border' files:
Cameron said these types of approaches by CCP representatives in New Zealand was nothing new, but the nature of the requests had changed over time.
“They’ve become more brazen as time moved on. The more funding and international students, the more confident they are that they can tell universities what to do.”
Cameron said the average New Zealander did not know this type of influence was a reality, “and I don’t think they want to know about it”.
Chinese interference in Dalai Lama visits
Attempts to block events attended by the Dalai Lama in NZ are further examples of Chinese interference.
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@Donsteppa said in Hong Kong:
'if that can happen here, what could happen across a small land border' files
Yeah, they can bring a fair bit of pressure to bear.
"The Civil Aviation Administration of China’s demands also included the airline submitting aircrew lists for Cathay flights entering Chinese airspace for pre-approval. Flights which did not go through the procedure would be barred from its airspace.
As a result of the threat of losing the right to fly to and over Chinese airspace, Cathay has cracked down hard on staff. On Monday, the company threatened to sack any employee who actively supported the protest movement, including taking part in the illegal airport demonstrations."Two pilots sacked so far and two other staff members.
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@Rembrandt
Trump wants the world to know about China's HK problem. -
@Frank The master of 5D chess. Lead story on BBC now. He is the biggest hope for the HK people. Can't see anyone else standing up.
Hong Kong protests: Trump urges Xi to meet demonstrators
He says a meeting would lead to a "happy and enlightened ending" after weeks of unrest.
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@Rembrandt said in Hong Kong:
He is the biggest hope for the HK people. Can't see anyone else standing up.
There actually isn't anyone else. Who else has the clout?
Yep, and even then it's a big ask for a small area of land right on the Chinese border. Interesting times...
Huge Chinese military build-up filmed on Hong Kong border amid airport clashes
1989 Tiananmen Square protests and massacre - Wikipedia
Where to Find the Hunters, State by State | Realtree B2B
List of countries by number of military and paramilitary personnel - Wikipedia
