Coronavirus - Overall



  • @pakman I hear Coventry is lovely this time of year.



  • @Bones said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    @pakman I hear Coventry is lovely this time of year.

    You stepping in to Baron's shoes?!



  • @pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    @Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    @Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    @pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    IMO Sweden has got it right.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/24/sweden-remains-face-mask-free-world/

    Don’t think anyone in EU-14 got care homes sorted, in part because contemporary systems have evolved without consideration of the possibility of pandemics...

    Can't access the article but I'd be interested to know why you think Sweden has got it right?

    Firstly an as has been said on here numerous times, it is still far too early to say which country has got it right or wrong, there is still much to come out yet.

    Secondly and whilst acknowledging that comparisons between different countries are problematical due to various issues such as population density, travel hub level, demographics etc we can look at Sweden's nearer neighbours that share much of the same levels of impacting issues:-

    Sweden deaths per 1M population 568
    Finalnd deaths per 1M population 59
    Norway deaths per 1M population 47

    Source:Worldometers 30/7/2020

    Sweden is very much the outlier here. There are some issues that may be partly the cause, their population is higher within roughly the same area but in truth that is open to debate on causation as in all these countries the population density is quite small with a significant amount of the population amassed in cities with around 20% of the population in the capitals in each case. Sweden having more large population cities than Norway and Finland, in keeping with their larger population. So a possible cause for a slightly higher death rate within the population but not, in the case of Norway 10 times the death rate.

    Having said all that I am not arguing that they have got it wrong, I am arguing that you cannot really suggest that they have got it right in any meaningful or measurable way.

    Yet.

    Edit: Also Sweden has around 8 times the number of cases as Norway and Finland with pretty much the same level of testing taking place. 2 times the number would be expected, 3 times would not be unrealistic.

    The comparison with other Nordics is heavily skewed by care home numbers. For EU-14 types it is clear they all need to reform the care systems as a result of lessons learned.>

    I guess that is the gist of the article?.

    But take that out and I doubt other Nordics much better. AND Sweden much if not all way to herd immunity, no no masks and no real fears of second wave. >

    TBC!

    Other Nordics have no such luxury.>

    As above

    And Sweden has fared no worse than other EU-14 countries which implemented lock down.>

    Marginally better than UK, Spain and Italy (much better than Belgium) but with very different population densities to these others. On a par with France and the Netherlands. Much worse than Germany, Portugal, Austria, Ireland - most again with much higher population densities.

    Life in Sweden seems back almost to normal.>

    Did it really change much? But that really is not the issue at present. The issue is whether or not this is a good thing - unproven in my book.

    They stuck to science, and by law were required to let health scientists make the decisions.>

    This makes sense to me and I can see how this would help form an overall opinion.

    Most other countries are labouring with confused and often contradictory policy making.>

    No argument!

    Can post text of article later, but off to town...>

    Would be grateful thanks. Oh and I hope you're wearing your mask and keeping your distance!



  • @pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    IMO Sweden has got it right.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/24/sweden-remains-face-mask-free-world/

    Don’t think anyone in EU-14 got care homes sorted, in part because contemporary systems have evolved without consideration of the possibility of pandemics.

    At other end of scale, it will be interesting to see how successfully NZ can refocus economy on domestic demand. I suspect it will come out stronger in long run, even if new normal may not involve as much conspicuous spending.

    Masks may only have been mandatory in British shops since yesterday, and British airports for a couple of months, but what I saw as I arrived in Sweden this past week already felt oddly transgressive, almost indecent.

    At no point on the journey does anyone tell you that you can remove your face mask, so when we landed in Stockholm, my fellow passengers on the quarter-full SAS flight from Heathrow kept them on up the gangway and into the airport terminal. Then you notice that the customs officers aren’t wearing them as they check your passport, nor the airport staff swooshing around on silent scooters, but you keep it on just in case. Only when you finally emerge from the baggage hall and into the row of waiting taxis do you realise: nobody is wearing one. Not a single person. In Sweden, it’s a mask-free world.

    In central Stockholm the restaurants and shops are busy, even if less busy than they might normally be; there’s a table-service-only rule, so many bars have queues of patient Swedes outside to avoid any overcrowding inside. The outside watering holes of Stureplan and along the waterfront at Strandvägen are positively booming.

    There’s nothing reckless or denialist about the atmosphere here; nor anything of the grim experiment-gone-wrong that much of the international media would have you believe about a country which did not impose a national lockdown.

    People are behaving responsibly, social distancing where possible, but determined to continue the serious business of living their lives. In the warm sunshine of a Stockholm evening, I got a sense of a people for whom unencumbered enjoyment of their brief summer — those precious moments of beauty and levity and warmth on the skin — is not a “nice-to-have” that should be surrendered on an uncertain cautionary principle. It is something closer to a human right.

    I interviewed the architect of Sweden’s Covid-19 policy, Anders Tegnell, for UnHerd’s LockdownTV.

    It’s fair to say he’s feeling chipper — suntanned, back from his own summer break, and looking at a set of coronavirus figures that are going rapidly in the right direction. Case numbers, having first surged as they massively increased testing, are now coming down dramatically; admissions into ICU are now so low that for two days last week there were none at all (the first time that’s happened since early March); and deaths with Covid-19, despite being counted more stringently than almost anywhere in the world, are down to lower levels than ever since the peak.

    The uncomfortable fact remains that Sweden has had a much higher total mortality per capita than its Scandinavian neighbours (although still under that of the UK), but Tegnell insists that that was mainly the result of poor shielding of care homes, not their lack of lockdown. They’ve improved that and are now seeing the results. Certainly, whatever they are doing now seems to be working — and that doesn’t include wearing masks.

    Tegnell makes no secret of the fact that he is baffled by other countries’ rush to mandate face masks. “The evidence base for using masks in society is still very weak,” he tells me – despite lots of countries now mandating them in different ways “we haven’t seen any new evidence coming up, which is a little bit surprising I can say.” He believes that masks may be counter-productive as people then forget social distancing and even go out when they are ill, which ends up increasing the spread of the disease. And most importantly, things are going perfectly well without them. “At a time like right now, when we have extremely few admissions into hospitals and the total number of cases is rapidly falling, it is not the time to introduce something else.”

    All of which, of course, could be said of the UK as well.

    As a half-Swede I’ve been paying anxious attention to their more laissez-faire response to Covid-19. It seems fair to grant Tegnell his request of deferring full judgement until a year from now, once we know how other countries fare in the autumn and spring. But whatever the final outcome, there is something about the atmosphere of the discussion in Sweden that I wish we had a bit more of in the UK.

    Decisions are taken entirely by the health agency with almost no involvement from politicians, which lowers the temperature from the outset. Anders Tegnell is a physician and technocrat with no voters to please or polls to fret about. The prime minister has been keeping a distinctly low profile on the issue.

    There’s also a Swedish bloody-mindedness that in other scenarios can be maddening but in this context is a breath of fresh air. They will stick to their plan, make decisions based on their reading of the evidence, and not bow to social media furores or international condemnation, whether from their Nordic neighbours or the New York Times (who recently dubbed Sweden “the world’s cautionary tale”). At a time of such widespread insecurity and finger-pointing it feels like an oasis of calm.

    Most of all there’s a clarity about those aspects of life that are worth defending, even in the midst of a global pandemic. Swedish children have not missed a single day of education; and they have protected the open society they cherish.

    Perhaps a culture’s readiness to change on a sixpence to a “new normal” is inversely correlated to their affection for, and confidence in, the “old normal.” The Swedes like their way of life, and are enviably reluctant to give it up.

    Freddie Sayers is executive editor of Unherd



  • @pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    @pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    IMO Sweden has got it right.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/24/sweden-remains-face-mask-free-world/

    Don’t think anyone in EU-14 got care homes sorted, in part because contemporary systems have evolved without consideration of the possibility of pandemics.

    At other end of scale, it will be interesting to see how successfully NZ can refocus economy on domestic demand. I suspect it will come out stronger in long run, even if new normal may not involve as much conspicuous spending.

    Masks may only have been mandatory in British shops since yesterday, and British airports for a couple of months, but what I saw as I arrived in Sweden this past week already felt oddly transgressive, almost indecent.

    At no point on the journey does anyone tell you that you can remove your face mask, so when we landed in Stockholm, my fellow passengers on the quarter-full SAS flight from Heathrow kept them on up the gangway and into the airport terminal. Then you notice that the customs officers aren’t wearing them as they check your passport, nor the airport staff swooshing around on silent scooters, but you keep it on just in case. Only when you finally emerge from the baggage hall and into the row of waiting taxis do you realise: nobody is wearing one. Not a single person. In Sweden, it’s a mask-free world.

    In central Stockholm the restaurants and shops are busy, even if less busy than they might normally be; there’s a table-service-only rule, so many bars have queues of patient Swedes outside to avoid any overcrowding inside. The outside watering holes of Stureplan and along the waterfront at Strandvägen are positively booming.

    There’s nothing reckless or denialist about the atmosphere here; nor anything of the grim experiment-gone-wrong that much of the international media would have you believe about a country which did not impose a national lockdown.

    People are behaving responsibly, social distancing where possible, but determined to continue the serious business of living their lives. In the warm sunshine of a Stockholm evening, I got a sense of a people for whom unencumbered enjoyment of their brief summer — those precious moments of beauty and levity and warmth on the skin — is not a “nice-to-have” that should be surrendered on an uncertain cautionary principle. It is something closer to a human right.

    I interviewed the architect of Sweden’s Covid-19 policy, Anders Tegnell, for UnHerd’s LockdownTV.

    It’s fair to say he’s feeling chipper — suntanned, back from his own summer break, and looking at a set of coronavirus figures that are going rapidly in the right direction. Case numbers, having first surged as they massively increased testing, are now coming down dramatically; admissions into ICU are now so low that for two days last week there were none at all (the first time that’s happened since early March); and deaths with Covid-19, despite being counted more stringently than almost anywhere in the world, are down to lower levels than ever since the peak.

    The uncomfortable fact remains that Sweden has had a much higher total mortality per capita than its Scandinavian neighbours (although still under that of the UK), but Tegnell insists that that was mainly the result of poor shielding of care homes, not their lack of lockdown. They’ve improved that and are now seeing the results. Certainly, whatever they are doing now seems to be working — and that doesn’t include wearing masks.

    Tegnell makes no secret of the fact that he is baffled by other countries’ rush to mandate face masks. “The evidence base for using masks in society is still very weak,” he tells me – despite lots of countries now mandating them in different ways “we haven’t seen any new evidence coming up, which is a little bit surprising I can say.” He believes that masks may be counter-productive as people then forget social distancing and even go out when they are ill, which ends up increasing the spread of the disease. And most importantly, things are going perfectly well without them. “At a time like right now, when we have extremely few admissions into hospitals and the total number of cases is rapidly falling, it is not the time to introduce something else.”

    All of which, of course, could be said of the UK as well.

    As a half-Swede I’ve been paying anxious attention to their more laissez-faire response to Covid-19. It seems fair to grant Tegnell his request of deferring full judgement until a year from now, once we know how other countries fare in the autumn and spring. But whatever the final outcome, there is something about the atmosphere of the discussion in Sweden that I wish we had a bit more of in the UK.

    Decisions are taken entirely by the health agency with almost no involvement from politicians, which lowers the temperature from the outset. Anders Tegnell is a physician and technocrat with no voters to please or polls to fret about. The prime minister has been keeping a distinctly low profile on the issue.

    There’s also a Swedish bloody-mindedness that in other scenarios can be maddening but in this context is a breath of fresh air. They will stick to their plan, make decisions based on their reading of the evidence, and not bow to social media furores or international condemnation, whether from their Nordic neighbours or the New York Times (who recently dubbed Sweden “the world’s cautionary tale”). At a time of such widespread insecurity and finger-pointing it feels like an oasis of calm.

    Most of all there’s a clarity about those aspects of life that are worth defending, even in the midst of a global pandemic. Swedish children have not missed a single day of education; and they have protected the open society they cherish.

    Perhaps a culture’s readiness to change on a sixpence to a “new normal” is inversely correlated to their affection for, and confidence in, the “old normal.” The Swedes like their way of life, and are enviably reluctant to give it up.

    Freddie Sayers is executive editor of Unherd

    Great read



  • So Sweden did "better" if we exclude aged care facilities, sweet, let's all remove our aged care facility fatalities, because clearly they don't count.



  • And simply saying 'we should have got our aged care protection right' is one thing, actually doing it is another.

    The higher the number of infected citizens, the harder it is to wall off your nursing homes and hospitals. Nurses have to come in, and cleaners and doctors and other workers. And in Sweden they are at greater risk of catching the virus at the shops, or at a cafe than someone in a nearby country.



  • @pakman Thanks for that. An interesting read.



  • @Nepia said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    So Sweden did "better" if we exclude aged care facilities, sweet, let's all remove our aged care facility fatalities, because clearly they don't count.

    No one said that they don't count (but this sadly is the mindset of far too many esp those that have power that has lead to economies being destroyed) .

    But maybe locking everyone down (and destroying the economy) is not the smartest move when a fit and healthy (esp younger) person has only a very small chance of dying from covid 19 (as is the case with any yearly flu). Its about looking at risk and costs and being sensible and selective rather than a heavy handed lets panic and destroy the economy approach. Like protecting the vulnerable (don't just focus on the elderly). Maybe the sick must stay at home, temperature readings, vulnerable being advised to do likewise etc rather than a nanny state heavy handed approach.



  • This is interesting

    So actual doctors spoke about treating actual patient and face-book decided it was false information so removed it. After 17 million views

    https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2020/07/27/facebook-censors-viral-video-of-doctors-capitol-hill-coronavirus-press-conference/



  • @Winger tell that to Victoria. They couldn't be trusted to control it themselves so now they will head into level 4 lockdown



  • @canefan said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    @Winger tell that to Victoria. They couldn't be trusted to control it themselves so now they will head into level 4 lockdown

    I really didn't need to look it up.

    Daniel Michael Andrews is an Australian politician who is the 48th and incumbent Premier of Victoria, a post he has held since 2014. He has been the state leader of the Australian Labor Party since 2010, and from 2010 to 2014 was Leader of the Opposition.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/the-numbers-are-too-high-premier-poised-to-announce-further-restrictions-as-victoria-records-397-new-cases-three-deaths-20200801-p55hk3.html

    'The numbers are too high': Premier poised to announce further restrictions as Victoria records 397 new cases, three deaths
    For our free coronavirus pandemic coverage, learn more here.

    Victoria is on the brink of further lockdown measures as concern increases around the levels of community transmission of COVID-19 in the state.

    After reporting more than 1300 new cases in the past two days, Victoria recorded 397 new cases on Saturday and three deaths.
    A man in his 80s, and woman in her 80s, and a woman in her 90s died overnight, the Premier said.



  • Russia have their vaccination ready.
    Working for final approval by August 10.
    Mass vaccinations aim to begin in October.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53621708



  • @Frank said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    Russia have their vaccination ready.
    Working for final approval by August 10.
    Mass vaccinations aim to begin in October.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53621708

    I would have thought Bill Gates would have wanted to implant his chip in the Americans before the Russians. Maybe they're further along with their 5G control towers?



  • @Frank said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    Russia have their vaccination ready.
    Working for final approval by August 10.
    Mass vaccinations aim to begin in October.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53621708

    Putin probably isn't to fussed if their vaccine has a few unintended consequences and he loses a few citizens



  • @canefan
    Might be, might also be they beat the west in getting a vaccine by some distance.
    Hard pill for the anti-Russians to swallow.



  • @Frank said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    @canefan
    Might be, might also be they beat the west in getting a vaccine by some distance.
    Hard pill for the anti-Russians to swallow.

    I guess anyone can get a vaccine out quickly if testing for adverse side effects goes out the window.



  • @Winger
    You think they have not tested for adverse side effects and are risking the heath of their whole population? Why?
    Possible, but seems unlikely.



  • given they supposedly 'stole' the UK vaccine which was already well into trial stage...



  • @barbarian said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    And simply saying 'we should have got our aged care protection right' is one thing, actually doing it is another.

    Agreed, which is why I said in original post 'For EU-14 types it is clear they all need to reform the care systems as a result of lessons learned.'

    The higher the number of infected citizens, the harder it is to wall off your nursing homes and hospitals. Nurses have to come in, and cleaners and doctors and other workers. And in Sweden they are at greater risk of catching the virus at the shops, or at a cafe than someone in a nearby country.

    You're spot on to include cleaners and other workers, which are easily forgotten. That has been a particular problem with Covid, given (we NOW know) there are so many asymptomatic cases.

    Th 'improved Swedish model' would have diverted resources to ensuring that care homes were quarantined. That would have meant live-in nurses cleaners, etc. Possibily a month on, month off system, or whatever oil rigs do.

    The cost of that would have been a fraction of the cost of lockdown.

    Going forward, care homes everywhere ought to be configured to enable quarantining when a pandemic hits in future. That means in the UK an end to homes being reliant on sharing workers, in particular agency staff.

    Needless to say it will be a major exercise.

    I wonder which government will be first to address it.



  • There's a devilish irony that nursing homes are facilities built specifically for people to die in.



  • @Siam said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    There's a devilish irony that nursing homes are facilities built specifically for people to die in.

    I said much the same thing the last time I visited my grandmother who's mind was still sharp but her body was failing her. I called them death camps. Old people waiting to die. Really depressing environment.



  • @antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    @Siam said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    There's a devilish irony that nursing homes are facilities built specifically for people to die in.

    I said much the same thing the last time I visited my grandmother who's mind was still sharp but her body was failing her. I called them death camps. Old people waiting to die. Really depressing environment.

    have heard them called 'wrinkly farming'

    Edit: and there are good and bad versions. Good can be amazing; bad can be soul destroying



  • @antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    @Siam said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    There's a devilish irony that nursing homes are facilities built specifically for people to die in.

    I said much the same thing the last time I visited my grandmother who's mind was still sharp but her body was failing her. I called them death camps. Old people waiting to die. Really depressing environment.

    I dont know which is worse, your grandma or mine whose mind is gone but her body keeps going regardless 😞 if they want a cure to COVID just give it to Grandma....apparently her body can shake anything off



  • @pakman Tegnell would say that though wouldn't he.

    It's all worked incredibly well except for the bit that we fucked up - Not that Sweden is alone there.

    He's been incredibly defensive about the Swedish experiment to the extent of predicting dire things for NZ which is a bit ironic. You'd think he'd have more sympathy for the other outliers.

    Basically he decided it'll take years for a vaccine to be developed so you might as well try for herd immunity as quickly as possible as lockdowns will only delay the inevitable. He also predicted that the other Scandinavian countries would see cases soar as soon as they eased their lockdowns.

    He might well be proven right but at this point in time he's effectively traded 4 weeks out of lockdown for a much higher mortality rate. The other Scandi countries are now effectively as "open" as Sweden. The thinking that not going into lockdown would be better for the economy has been proven wrong.

    It'll be very interesting to see how it all pans out.



  • @pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    Going forward, care homes everywhere ought to be configured to enable quarantining when a pandemic hits in future. That means in the UK an end to homes being reliant on sharing workers, in particular agency staff.

    Needless to say it will be a major exercise.

    It's a nice idea but impossible to implement. There are thousands of nursing homes here in Aus, each with hundreds of staff. Given the nature of the work it would skew female (I'm guessing) and many of those nurses and carers would have families of their own.

    So some sort of quarantine for that many people for that length of time would be straight out impossible, IMO.







  • @Tim said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-53598965

    Afghan refugees fleeing back over the border to return back to Afghanistan never made sense with the official numbers.

    Assumed it was worse, but was still a 'believable ' amount of stats being released to make the obfuscation plausible. Almost well played.



  • @barbarian said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    @pakman said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    Going forward, care homes everywhere ought to be configured to enable quarantining when a pandemic hits in future. That means in the UK an end to homes being reliant on sharing workers, in particular agency staff.

    Needless to say it will be a major exercise.

    It's a nice idea but impossible to implement. There are thousands of nursing homes here in Aus, each with hundreds of staff. Given the nature of the work it would skew female (I'm guessing) and many of those nurses and carers would have families of their own.

    So some sort of quarantine for that many people for that length of time would be straight out impossible, IMO.

    I'm not sure we're really disagreeing.

    With the current haphazard methods of provision of elderly care, and a range of facilities from the hospital-like to B'n'B, prolonged quarantine would be near impossible for all (but possible for some).

    The lesson from all this should be that pandamics can and will happen despite all the wonderful medical advances over the last 100 years.

    Hence the need for EU-14 to regulate future care homes so that they can quarantive if and when required to in future.

    It's a massive undertaking, with very substantial cost implications.

    However, lockdown until vaccine is simply unaffordable in most scenarios.



  • alt text





  • He is/was 80, though.



  • That is laying on a guilt trip that my mother would have been proud of.



  • @Rapido said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    He is/was 80, though.

    I know lots of 80 year olds in fine health. Lots who aren't either....



  • This graph for Spain is very disheartening.
    Spain2nd.JPG

    I associate Spain and Italy with having similar experiences in first wave, but no sign of second wave in Italy.
    Italy2nd.JPG



  • For the potential signs of (Western) European second wave, Belgium seems to be the other bell-weather (along with Spain).
    Belgium2nd.JPG



  • @Rapido To get a truer picture I’d like to see the graph for number of tests administered overlaid on those figures.



  • @Catogrande said in Coronavirus - Overall:

    @Rapido To get a truer picture I’d like to see the graph for number of tests administered overlaid on those figures.

    righto Trumpy



  • Deaths should be the metric not cases.


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