Coronavirus - Overall
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@mariner4life who is denying that the geography made things easier or amplified the success of the travel/lockdown approaches?
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@paekakboyz said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@mariner4life who is denying that the geography made things easier or amplified the success of the travel/lockdown approaches?
i don't really understand the question
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@gt12 said in Coronavirus - Overall:
BBC segment on right now explaining that some countries which have pursued an elimination strategy will now pursue a ‘live with the virus’ strategy. Countries mentioned were Singapore, Taiwan, NZ, and Australia.
Anyone heard anything about this? Jacinda’s overstuffed PR team will be working hard on that one.
Nothing new from NZ. They have said, months ago, that NZ will change from elimination strategy as they re-open after vaccination role out reaches x point. That was the first softening up from the elimination strategy comms from the government, haven't said much on it since then - that I have seen.
NZ Vaccination has only reached 10% 1 dose, 5% fully vaccianated. So, I'd say start of a (deliberate) live with it strategy is still 6 months away, at least.
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@gt12 said in Coronavirus - Overall:
BBC segment on right now explaining that some countries which have pursued an elimination strategy will now pursue a ‘live with the virus’ strategy. Countries mentioned were Singapore, Taiwan, NZ, and Australia.
Anyone heard anything about this? Jacinda’s overstuffed PR team will be working hard on that one.
Well the options are live with it, or keep the borders shut permanently.
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On India.
As it is so big, and relatively 'un-documented', it will be the snippets of info from various states or other institutions that give a glimpse at how bad it may have truely been.
Madhya-Pradesh state released official data on all-cause mortality. Mortality up 3 times on normal levels during April and May. (It has a population of 73 million)
The news cycle seemed to move on, and the nationwide official numbers have come down (and no doubting the official numbers in terms of showing the trends), but it seems to have only really been northern Indian states & cities with the acute wave? So, I don't think the reports that extrapolate the numbers accross the entire country will end up being accurate. It will be somewhere in the middle.
Officially, Madhya Pradesh reported just 4,461 Covid deaths between January 1 and May 31, 2021. The excess deaths seen in the same period are 42 times the reported Covid death toll, yet it isn’t possible to attribute the entire excess death toll to Covid. States across the country including Madhya Pradesh witnessed significant disruptions to routine health services when the second wave hit, activists say.
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Yeah, so googled Southern India covid wave
and most recent news article titled : India’s southern states show resilience amid Covid catastrophe
Article is not pay-walled, btw.
But in summary - way more hospital beds per capita in south.
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@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
First Trevor Noah and now this. He certainly knows how to destroy a legacy.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
First Trevor Noah and now this. He certainly knows how to destroy a legacy.
Yep.
Edit: I wrote that halfway through the video.
Holy shit.... he's gone cocaine and crazy.
Like.... SUPER cocaine and crazy. -
Interesting to hear Singapore seriously and publicly talking about living with Covid. Pretty much changing to endemic rather than pandemic. No reporting of case numbers, no border controls, no quarantine. Get people vaccinated and live with it.
Stark contrast to Australasia that seek convinced this is a thing you can wait out and it will magically disappear.
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@mariner4life said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Interesting to hear Singapore seriously and publicly talking about living with Covid. Pretty much changing to endemic rather than pandemic. No reporting of case numbers, no border controls, no quarantine. Get people vaccinated and live with it.
Stark contrast to Australasia that seek convinced this is a thing you can wait out and it will magically disappear.
We'll have vaccine passports soon and will be able to go everywhere except home.
After bitching for a long time about how shit Japan has been, things are suddenly changing on the vaccine front - all around me everyone is getting their vouchers and there are hundreds of places where you can get your shot.
I'll get mine on July 6th (if not before, I'm on the left-over list too) and even if I didn't my wife's work is putting them on for employees and family, starting early August.
They might even just about get away with holding the Olympics and not starting a huge bubble - although we are still getting about 500 cases a day in Tokyo so I'll be shocked if we don' have a sudden surge.
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@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
First Trevor Noah and now this. He certainly knows how to destroy a legacy.
Sorry, what do you mean? That he floated the idea the Covid began in a lab in China?
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@mariner4life surely this event in Wellington leans toward the vaccines reducing the infectiousness of the virus, particularly if this was the delta variant (has that been confirmed yet?)
I mean this dude has gone to so many places where transmission was very likely and so far seems nz has dodged another bullet, we can't be this lucky.
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@taniwharugby yep, this one was confirmed as a delta case.
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@frank said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@antipodean said in Coronavirus - Overall:
@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
First Trevor Noah and now this. He certainly knows how to destroy a legacy.
Sorry, what do you mean? That he floated the idea the Covid began in a lab in China?
HIs anti-science rant.
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Sunday Musings
Interesting graphic from a ski forum I frequent
Always had a problem with the nomenclature and subsequent interpretation of 'herd immunity'
Am I correct in thinking
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Fully vaccinated doesn't make you immune
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Fully vaccinated significantly reduces the risk of contracting the virus
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If virus is contracted, fully vaccinated significantly reduces the severity of the virus.
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You can still become seriously ill and/or die if fully vaccinated
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Fully vaccinated you can still pass on the virus even if you are exhibiting no signs, symptoms, or ill health
I think most of the population think that once they're double jabbed they can do what the fuck they like.
Yes? No? Maybe?
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@mikethesnow said in Coronavirus - Overall:
Sunday Musings
Interesting graphic from a ski forum I frequent
Always had a problem with the nomenclature and subsequent interpretation of 'herd immunity'
Am I correct in thinking
-
Fully vaccinated doesn't make you immune
-
Fully vaccinated significantly reduces the risk of contracting the virus
-
If virus is contracted, fully vaccinated significantly reduces the severity of the virus.
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You can still become seriously ill and/or die if fully vaccinated
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Fully vaccinated you can still pass on the virus even if you are exhibiting no signs, symptoms, or ill health
I think most of the population think that once they're double jabbed they can do what the fuck they like.
Yes? No? Maybe?
Sounds about right to me.
As for "most of the population think that once they're double jabbed they can do what the fuck they like" , I think with a small adjustment to "most of the population think that once they're double jabbed, and the rest of the population has had the opportunity to do the same, they can do what the fuck they like", it's a perfectly fine perspective to have.
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Good explainer in this article.
@MiketheSnowWhy most people who now die with Covid in England have been vaccinated
David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters
Don’t think of this as a bad sign, it’s exactly what’s expected from an effective but imperfect jab
Sun 27 Jun 2021 08.00 BST
AMailOnline headline on 13 June read: “Study shows 29% of the 42 people who have died after catching the new strain had BOTH vaccinations.” In Public Health England’s technical briefing on 25 June, that figure had risen to 43% (50 of 117), with the majority (60%) having received at least one dose.
It could sound worrying that the majority of people dying in England with the now-dominant Delta (B.1.617.2) variant have been vaccinated. Does this mean the vaccines are ineffective? Far from it, it’s what we would expect from an effective but imperfect vaccine, a risk profile that varies hugely by age and the way the vaccines have been rolled out.
Consider the hypothetical world where absolutely everyone had received a less than perfect vaccine. Although the death rate would be low, everyone who died would have been fully vaccinated.
The vaccines are not perfect. PHE estimates two-dose effectiveness against hospital admission with the Delta infections at around 94%. We can perhaps assume there is at least 95% protection against Covid-19 death, which means the lethal risk is reduced to less than a twentieth of its usual value.
But the risk of dying from Covid-19 is extraordinarily dependent on age: it halves for each six to seven year age gap. This means that someone aged 80 who is fully vaccinated essentially takes on the risk of an unvaccinated person of around 50 – much lower, but still not nothing, and so we can expect some deaths.