Coronavirus - New Zealand



  • @Kirwan I have some sympathy for the view that we need to re-examine our tourism focus. Maybe he was taken out of context. Certainly now's not the time for the quoted comments



  • I think if the world borders remain tight for a sustained period, most of the tourist dollars NZers spent outside NZ will end up being spent in NZ, one reason many dont holiday here is the cost, so if the industry wants to get back on it's feet, appealing to the average NZer that would typically go to Fiji, Gold Coast, Bali etc is going to be key.



  • @dogmeat countries that have coped well with the pandemic generally have one of two characteristics, or sometimes both. Strong government guidance and leadership, and a compliant population. Population density and degree of isolation could be extenuating circumstances. There is no one blueprint to success (assuming that the Scandinavian experiment works out).



  • @canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Strong government guidance and leadership, and a compliant population.

    4 weeks ago I would have said we have none of those....



  • @Crucial I didn't say he was claiming expertise - if he was doing that he'd have to be posting here...

    As i said to @Kirwan we don't know the context of his comments and I agree we need to think about the mix of tourists and the overall numbers. The fault is with the journo (again) They tell you Shamubeel Eaqub is an expert and then quote Ron Bull inferring he also has expertise - but more on titi than tourism



  • @taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    I think if the world borders remain tight for a sustained period, most of the tourist dollars NZers spent outside NZ will end up being spent in NZ, one reason many dont holiday here is the cost, so if the industry wants to get back on it's feet, appealing to the average NZer that would typically go to Fiji, Gold Coast, Bali etc is going to be key.

    Absolutely. We are a bit of a stingy, spendthrift lot when it comes to internal tourism. We tend to think that the prices are set for 'rich overseas tourists' and there's no way we are going near 'tourist traps'.
    The industry will have to work hard to turn that thinking around but balance it with not undercutting themselves when external tourism starts up again.
    Many operations will go under as they are setup solely for wealthy overseas tourists and their model won't adjust to a local clientele, but also many are in a position to cut prices to stay afloat.
    As an example, operators like those doing the Dart River Jetboats targeted the Chinese tourist market with package deals. Casual local tourists were priced out. They may have to rethink their model.
    Rental Cars and Campervans may have to slash prices as well.



  • @Crucial i get pretty sick of the "tourism only targets rich overseas customers, and has priced locals out of the market" argument that comes up all the bloody time, and was raring its head a couple of months ago when we already knew tourism was fucked.

    These types of comments have no idea the margins that tourism businesses operate at, especially when, for many, the biggest cost is labour, which gets more expensive every year (typically in front of CPI). Our pricing is market driven, especially in a competitive environment (like Cairns, or Rotorua), we generally don't get to move prices very much, as the ITOs just move elsewhere.

    Add in the fact almost every operation i know has a local's discount of at least 20%, and i find the argument rarely holds water.



  • @Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    As an example, operators like those doing the Dart River Jetboats targeted the Chinese tourist market with package deals. Casual local tourists were priced out. They may have to rethink their model.

    Agree. We were near Huka Falls last year, and thought about doing a jet boat ride. At $139/adult, I wasn't super keen. Would rather eat a fantastic meal somewhere; seemed quite pricy for a ride that's less than an hour or so



  • @dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback
    Meanwhile the US is in the middle of an absolute shit storm. I get you are triggered by the C word but it's not nonsense to suggest that, compared to more laissez faire western democracies, tightly controlled East Asian governments have an advantage in the fight against CV because they have more obedient populations.

    Clearly not as triggered as you think as it took a bit to figure out what the C stood for. I would argue that they dont so much have obedient populations as obedient journalists, police, army and judicial system. Big difference, most countries have obedient populations, but hose populations are obedient because they have a variety of news, an honest police force and a fair judiciary. Obedience through trust in the system. Those ruled by communism are obedient through fear of the system.

    The important point I think is that this is not a binary discussion. It's much more nuanced than deaths vs the economy. Striking the balance of protecting as many as possible while not destroying the economy is the delicate balancing act every government around the world is trying to perform.

    We already "waste" multi millions of dollars every year on people who are going to die anyway and I don't think anyone begrudges that expense. This is simply an extrapolation, that I think the majority support - at this time.

    Agree, and whilst I think the NZ govt is making more and more mistakes, I try not to judge via hindsight to much. One of the reasons I got annoyed with the min wage increase is that the impact is predictable and a competent govt would have spotted it. I think the wage subsidy was done brilliantly and many countries copied. So it isnt just partisan brick bat throwing.

    What I would like to see is the source data for Cindy's repeated assertion that 100 years ago those countries that locked down most severely came out better off economically in the medium term.

    That would be reassuring.
    I am also losing faith in 'modeled data' as they all seem to be very different and very wrong.



  • We thought about doing this before we got locked down, but at $850 for the family (admittedly for 2.5hrs) jusy couldn't justify it.

    https://ziptrek.junction6travel.com/products/all/5958/buy?_ga=2.235379457.1490854229.1586214665-427595501.1586214665



  • @dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    What I would like to see is the source data for Cindy's repeated assertion that 100 years ago those countries that locked down most severely came out better off economically in the medium term.

    she didn't say that, did she? that's, well, an astounding thing to say in her position.



  • @mariner4life I thought she'd been pretty good on any statements like that - but may have missed this one. If she did say that I'd definitely be interested in how they can possibly know at this stage!



  • @voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    We thought about doing this before we got locked down, but at $850 for the family (admittedly for 2.5hrs) jusy couldn't justify it.

    https://ziptrek.junction6travel.com/products/all/5958/buy?_ga=2.235379457.1490854229.1586214665-427595501.1586214665

    We did a family holiday to Fiji and we did a jet ski safari, cost us $1200, I woinced but did it as it seemed like a really cool trip.
    Would never spend $1200 on any local tourism venture like that.
    Double standards, no logical justification and frankly a bit of a dick attitude as helping local business should be important. I am going to work hard to change my attitude.



  • @mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Crucial i get pretty sick of the "tourism only targets rich overseas customers, and has priced locals out of the market" argument that comes up all the bloody time, and was raring its head a couple of months ago when we already knew tourism was fucked.

    These types of comments have no idea the margins that tourism businesses operate at, especially when, for many, the biggest cost is labour, which gets more expensive every year (typically in front of CPI). Our pricing is market driven, especially in a competitive environment (like Cairns, or Rotorua), we generally don't get to move prices very much, as the ITOs just move elsewhere.

    Add in the fact almost every operation i know has a local's discount of at least 20%, and i find the argument rarely holds water.

    Hang on. I'm not saying that companies are overcharging for their market or what they offer. I'm saying that if they have a model that only works when overseas tourists pay high prices then they need to have a re-think. It may mean that they can't operate, but there will be plenty that could run a light version at lower prices for a domestic market.
    When you travel a good distance you do tend to be more willing to cough up more as there is a factor of maybe not having another chance to do/see something. Domestically you tend to be a little tighter. It is a psychological thing. It's not that locals are priced out, just that there perception of value is different than when they travel.
    It's the same everywhere. Locals don't spend money in touristy areas as the prices are higher.
    Tourism does target willing spenders (overseas tourists). There's no getting around that fact. That doesn't mean that they are ripping people off, just that their business model offers value to that market. If they want to pull through on a domestic market there will need to be some clever thinking.
    Take something like bungy jumping down south. They have very big setup costs and a lot of H&S and training costs. However, they also employ enough people to be able to process a bus load quickly. I'm fairly sure they will run a leaner operation for a while and pull through. Domestic tourists are also more likely to want to drive themselves to the sites so places like Nevis may offer a parking option at the bottom of the hill rather than only a shuttle from town/Kawarau Bridge.

    Not great on the jobs front but if the businesses adjust for a while they could stay afloat domestically.



  • I think sometimes it just comes down to a holiday being an overseas thing as a getaway.

    I did a holiday back to NZ last year with some mates as a tourist and spent a bucketload doing touristy stuff in the North/BoP/HB.

    I likely wouldn't have done the same if I still lived in NZ and my holiday would have been to Asia or the Islands (for examples). But I would probably do odd weekend trips to touristy areas in NZ when hosting visitors from overseas.



  • David Clark went to the beach with his family, I get he is the health minster, I get it was wrong. But I am sooo bloody sick of this nonsense. He made a mistake, apologized, there was no spite no malice, no dishonesty, now apparently his career is over. Bullshit.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/120863459/jacinda-ardern-should-fire-david-clark-as-soon-as-this-is-over



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback I dont think we are are alone, I know when I was in the UK it was more costly to do local holidays than to pop to Europe or slightly further afield...always recall a few conversaitons I had on a constructions site I worked on in London, 2 or 3 Brits there had seen more of NZ than me, yet I had seen more of the UK than them....

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback those media gimps would only ask questions about that yesterday, not the actual issues



  • Stupid move on his part for sure but, I agree, he is more important to stay in place at the moment.
    He has been demoted, copped a pay cut and lost an associate portfolio. No doubt also got one hell of an ear-bashing.

    I'm sure that this media stuff is a product of the hacks that were desperately looking for a scandalous story and were shut down from diverting the message at the presser the other day. A small group kept harping on about it after being told it was being taken seriously but they weren't going to get their little victory. Now they are pissy because they were exposed as click bait writers and are doubling down. It's like a whole group of Ratpoo's after being ignored by the NZRU.



  • https://www.facebook.com/honnicksmith/posts/812629655894433

    And here we go, Labour using the lockdown to get through their idelogy with parliament operating under lockdown. Absolutely no need to rush this in as they are trying to do.

    What else are they going to try and sneak in?



  • @Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    I'm sure that this media stuff is a product of the hacks that were desperately looking for a scandalous story and were shut down from diverting the message at the presser the other day. A small group kept harping on about it after being told it was being taken seriously but they weren't going to get their little victory. Now they are pissy because they were exposed as click bait writers and are doubling down. It's like a whole group of Ratpoo's after being ignored by the NZRU.

    I think there's a boredom element creeping into the coverage. With no shocking pandemic on the horizon locally, reporters have turned to uncovering 'scandal' and prosecuting the argument as hard as they can.

    Because it's more interesting to read and report on than 'case numbers are steady for another day'.

    We've had the same issue in Aus with the Ruby Princess cruise ship. Sure it was a costly blunder but the coverage its getting makes you think its our version of Watergate. But what else is there to talk about?



  • Based on little more than the Minister of Health's relative invisibility over the last two months, I wonder if Clark has been biking towards final straw territory for a while now...



  • @Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    https://www.facebook.com/honnicksmith/posts/812629655894433

    And here we go, Labour using the lockdown to get through their idelogy with parliament operating under lockdown. Absolutely no need to rush this in as they are trying to do.

    What else are they going to try and sneak in?

    I very much disagree with the content of the Bill but I have to say that Nick Smith is either very dumb or shit stirring when in that long post he totally fails to address the quite likely possibility that the Bill needs to move through in order for actions stemming from it to be implemented prior to the election.
    So, if there is genuine reason to highlight select committee concerns that haven't been addressed then do so, but trying to paint a picture that this bill is more important to the govt than ones addressing violence for reasons other than timing is mischievous.



  • @Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    https://www.facebook.com/honnicksmith/posts/812629655894433

    And here we go, Labour using the lockdown to get through their idelogy with parliament operating under lockdown. Absolutely no need to rush this in as they are trying to do.

    What else are they going to try and sneak in?

    I very much disagree with the content of the Bill but I have to say that Nick Smith is either very dumb or shit stirring when in that long post he totally fails to address the quite likely possibility that the Bill needs to move through in order for actions stemming from it to be implemented prior to the election.
    So, if there is genuine reason to highlight select committee concerns that haven't been addressed then do so, but trying to paint a picture that this bill is more important to the govt than ones addressing violence for reasons other than timing is mischievous.

    Is Seymour shit shirring as well?

    https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2003/S00147/govt-rushing-prisoner-voting-law-during-covid-19-crisis.htm

    Or are we seeing a pattern here of Labour not wanting to waste a crisis?



  • @barbarian said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    But what else is there to talk about?

    Well, now we have George Pell...



  • @Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    https://www.facebook.com/honnicksmith/posts/812629655894433

    And here we go, Labour using the lockdown to get through their idelogy with parliament operating under lockdown. Absolutely no need to rush this in as they are trying to do.

    What else are they going to try and sneak in?

    I very much disagree with the content of the Bill but I have to say that Nick Smith is either very dumb or shit stirring when in that long post he totally fails to address the quite likely possibility that the Bill needs to move through in order for actions stemming from it to be implemented prior to the election.
    So, if there is genuine reason to highlight select committee concerns that haven't been addressed then do so, but trying to paint a picture that this bill is more important to the govt than ones addressing violence for reasons other than timing is mischievous.

    Is Seymour shit shirring as well?

    https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2003/S00147/govt-rushing-prisoner-voting-law-during-covid-19-crisis.htm

    Or are we seeing a pattern here of Labour not wanting to waste a crisis?

    No. And I agree that (as he explains it) maybe someone needs to have a rethink about the legislative programme.
    My argument isn't with that point, it was with the explanation and motive of Nick Smith who failed to mention basic facts.

    I might have a look to see what the original timeframes on these were before coming to a conclusion. If, for example, they have had a long time in committee already and are under tactical 'delay' leading to an election then the matter changes somewhat. Most Govt try to cram things through toward the end of the term. I think it is a common gripe.
    There is a difference between cramming and shortcutting though.



  • @Kirwan I don't think it's a case of trying to rush it through as some sort of secret agenda. It's been well telegraphed as policy and they have the numbers so while I don't agree with it I'm not losing sleep.

    Interestingly Matthew Hooton (hardy a leftie) thinks they should keep the current Committee overview structure post lockdown. Thinks it gives the opposition a better chance to scrutinise legislation and does away with the farcical Question Time pantomime. He said it had encouraged proper debate but singled out Seymour as being a bit of a dick.



  • Personally, I don't think they should be continuing any new legislation during a lockdown with parliament basically suspended, certainly not speeding up the process and avoiding public involvement.

    At best it looks slimy and dishonest.

    I don't have strong opinions on the prisoner voting law, not sure that needs to change, but if they try to sneak through the hate speech stuff we are losing basic freedoms.



  • @Crucial i don't see the benefit.

    Of course our most heavily overseas market dependent operation could run differently. We cut down our days open, and we severely reduce the staff, and look at every aspect of the business. Survive? yes. But there are probably 50 people who don't get their jobs back. A bunch of local suppliers who lose a wedge of trade. Will we charge less? No, because that's not how it works. THe price stays the same, we adjust our costs to meet the greatly reduced turnover.

    I mean, maybe you charge less. And run a worse product with no service. And then no one comes anyway.

    So i don't exactly get your point to be honest. No one with half a brain is going to ramp straight in to full capacity straight away. But i very much doubt there will be a long period of cheap deals, as just trying to generate volume for volume's sake is a short term proposition.



  • @Kirwan if it isn't essential I don't understand why they could have a good reason to do it



  • Another 54 new and probable cases today, 12 in Hospital, 4 in ICU with 1 in critical condition, still 12 clusters.

    241 recovered of the 1160 total

    Think JA was asked 3 times if she would sack Clark when things return to normal...



  • @mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Crucial i don't see the benefit.

    Of course our most heavily overseas market dependent operation could run differently. We cut down our days open, and we severely reduce the staff, and look at every aspect of the business. Survive? yes. But there are probably 50 people who don't get their jobs back. A bunch of local suppliers who lose a wedge of trade. Will we charge less? No, because that's not how it works. THe price stays the same, we adjust our costs to meet the greatly reduced turnover.

    I mean, maybe you charge less. And run a worse product with no service. And then no one comes anyway.

    So i don't exactly get your point to be honest. No one with half a brain is going to ramp straight in to full capacity straight away. But i very much doubt there will be a long period of cheap deals, as just trying to generate volume for volume's sake is a short term proposition.

    Every operation will be different, of course, and I am sorry if yours can only operate with overseas tourist business.
    I maintain, though that some will look at things differently and ride things out while waiting for that market to return. That could obviously require adjustment and very likely job losses.
    The OP here was that people may look to travel domestically and spend their travel funds as such. Some businesses will be able to adjust and take advantage of that while others won't.
    Domestic tourists tend to be more self sufficient and unpredictable. They aren't going to be captured markets on a coach. For some businesses transferring tour group discounts to walk up customers may be enough to attract them in.



  • @taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Another 54 new and probable cases today, 12 in Hospital, 4 in ICU with 1 in critical condition, still 12 clusters.

    241 recovered of the 1160 total

    Think JA was asked 3 times if she would sack Clark when things return to normal...

    It was embarrassing. She clearly explained his punishment and how, in a normal time, he would have been sacked. Explained his punishment in detail as well. Still wasn't enough for the feral press who kept harping on.



  • @Crucial Media probably getting frustrated as the Minister of Health he was avoiding the press. Not the best time to be doing that.

    You know, the opposite of open and transparent.



  • @taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Another 54 new and probable cases today, 12 in Hospital, 4 in ICU with 1 in critical condition, still 12 clusters.

    241 recovered of the 1160 total

    Think JA was asked 3 times if she would sack Clark when things return to normal...

    She said he will be demoted did she? I think that is probably what John Key would have done, and it's a darn sight more than she did to Curran(?). He's been a dick and will sit on the sidelines for the foreseeable future. But there's always a way back, just ask Crusher



  • @Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Another 54 new and probable cases today, 12 in Hospital, 4 in ICU with 1 in critical condition, still 12 clusters.

    241 recovered of the 1160 total

    Think JA was asked 3 times if she would sack Clark when things return to normal...

    It was embarrassing. She clearly explained his punishment and how, in a normal time, he would have been sacked. Explained his punishment in detail as well. Still wasn't enough for the feral press who kept harping on.

    What I thought was unusual was that she kept entertaining that line of questioning. I'm sure I've heard her default to versions of "I've already answered that" much sooner in her press conferences over the years.



  • @Kirwan TBF, despite being MOH, he has been rarely seen anyway, Bloomfield has taken the lead, confidently.



  • @Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Every operation will be different, of course, and I am sorry if yours can only operate with overseas tourist business.

    no one said that

    Your original point was the operations are set up to charge premiums to overseas tourists, and will have to drop their prices for domestic tourists, which isn't correct in my experience. There isn't some Chinese premium added to the top, most especially because, if they can get it cheaper, they will go down the road in a heartbeat.



  • @taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Kirwan TBF, despite being MOH, he has been rarely seen anyway, Bloomfield has taken the lead, confidently.

    Makes sense. He may be the Health Minister, but on these matters he isn't the smartest person in the room



  • @mariner4life said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Every operation will be different, of course, and I am sorry if yours can only operate with overseas tourist business.

    no one said that

    Your original point was the operations are set up to charge premiums to overseas tourists, and will have to drop their prices for domestic tourists, which isn't correct in my experience. There isn't some Chinese premium added to the top, most especially because, if they can get it cheaper, they will go down the road in a heartbeat.

    I think in many places in the world it's just cheaper because the labour is cheaper. NZ is not a cheap country



  • @canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    I think in many places in the world it's just cheaper because the labour is cheaper. NZ is not a cheap country

    We're not, and we'll never compete direclty with low cost labour countries.

    The cost of living here though seems much higher than (say) Australia, or even the USA. I can't always get my head around why that is. A mate returned from Aus a year or so ago, and wound up going back - cost of living was one of the major factors in that decision


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