Coronavirus - New Zealand



  • @Bovidae prety pathetic they need to do that really



  • @taniwharugby And it would be an 1 h+ drive to get there from Auckland/Waikato so I am happy if the idiots are inconvenienced for breaking the lockdown rules.



  • @Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Wife travels to work with her "papers" allowing her to travel. Fun times.

    Our legal team have apparently drafted "essential services" letters to permit us to continue travelling. A friend came up with the term Covstapo.

    alt text



  • @taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Bovidae prety pathetic they need to do that really

    Anyone that thinks that all NZers can be trusted to do the right thing can guess again. I have no problem with it, because if I am not allowed to return to work just because a small group of shit bags couldn't climb aboard and do what was asked, I will be fucken pissed



  • https://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/news/120909496/man-charged-after-spitting-at-cop-during-routine-traffic-stop-in-south-canterbury

    I hope they throw the book at this fuck stick. Spitting is a dog act at the best of times



  • I ma almost to the point of thinking this whole thing has been a pile of shite.

    We have stuffed our economy for 12 people in hospital,4 in ICU and 1 death?

    Lets assume we didnt lock down and it was 10 times worse...

    120 in hospital, 40 in ICU and 10 deaths? Big deal.

    I think a limited lockdown of at risk people plus strong border controls would have been perfect balance. This govt just panicked once university experts told them disaster scenarios. Gutless.
    And before anyone (most likely Hawkes supporters) have a cry about me getting political. I think a National govt would have done EXACTLY the same.



  • @canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    I think if the world borders remain tight for a sustained period, most of the tourist dollars NZers spent outside NZ will end up being spent in NZ, one reason many dont holiday here is the cost, so if the industry wants to get back on it's feet, appealing to the average NZer that would typically go to Fiji, Gold Coast, Bali etc is going to be key.

    I'm already considering where in NZ to take the family in the Winter holidays now that all planned overseas trips are canned. I think the NZ tourist industry is set to have a strong middle and second half of the year because I suspect I'm not alone

    I probably won't add much more than normal but that's because we travel and spend domestically in winter anyway, usually heading to the snow.
    We already have a Queenstown trip booked and have until the end of this month to cancel flights and get a credit. Also have a credit already from tickets that were meant to be in May for a visit but have been cancelled.
    Some of this depends on whether we can claim those credits (Jetstar) but I'd say we will end up going down there anyway.
    Also have season passes for Ruapehu so will be hopefully making use of those.
    Luckily for them, most tourism bucks are in winter in places like Ohakune.



  • @Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    We already have a Queenstown trip booked and have until the end of this month to cancel flights and get a credit.

    Don't cancel, come visit! We'll still be in lockdown here at this rate , we can all walk to the top of the mountain together..😁



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    I ma almost to the point of thinking this whole thing has been a pile of shite.

    We have stuffed our economy for 12 people in hospital,4 in ICU and 1 death?

    Lets assume we didnt lock down and it was 10 times worse...

    120 in hospital, 40 in ICU and 10 deaths? Big deal.

    I think a limited lockdown of at risk people plus strong border controls would have been perfect balance. This govt just panicked once university experts told them disaster scenarios. Gutless.
    And before anyone (most likely Hawkes supporters) have a cry about me getting political. I think a National govt would have done EXACTLY the same.

    10 x worse doesn't mean a simple 10x the numbers.
    Let the virus spread and the numbers would have been doubling every couple of days until it got worn out. That is conservative and backed up by the numbers in countries like the US.
    Now consider the very small numbers of ICU beds that we have and we would have been overwhelmed quite quickly.



  • @Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    I ma almost to the point of thinking this whole thing has been a pile of shite.

    We have stuffed our economy for 12 people in hospital,4 in ICU and 1 death?

    Lets assume we didnt lock down and it was 10 times worse...

    120 in hospital, 40 in ICU and 10 deaths? Big deal.

    I think a limited lockdown of at risk people plus strong border controls would have been perfect balance. This govt just panicked once university experts told them disaster scenarios. Gutless.
    And before anyone (most likely Hawkes supporters) have a cry about me getting political. I think a National govt would have done EXACTLY the same.

    10 x worse doesn't mean a simple 10x the numbers.
    Let the virus spread and the numbers would have been doubling every couple of days until it got worn out. That is conservative and backed up by the numbers in countries like the US.
    Now consider the very small numbers of ICU beds that we have and we would have been overwhelmed quite quickly.

    I think it does if you take the precautions. NZ has lower numbers because we have kept it away from risk groups. We could have done that without a lockdown of nearly all business.

    Our numbers would have been way better than the US without a full lockdown. We took a sledgehammer to what turned out to be a nut.

    The models have all massively over predicted deaths and cases.

    Riddle me this then.... what is the reasoning for locking down the economy and wrecking it.. BEFORE you properly lock down the border. I have no issue with locking down a border and quarantining all arrivals for 14 days in govt run facilities. That's logical. I am not against measures, but smart measures, not panic



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    I ma almost to the point of thinking this whole thing has been a pile of shite.

    We have stuffed our economy for 12 people in hospital,4 in ICU and 1 death?

    Lets assume we didnt lock down and it was 10 times worse...

    120 in hospital, 40 in ICU and 10 deaths? Big deal.

    I think a limited lockdown of at risk people plus strong border controls would have been perfect balance. This govt just panicked once university experts told them disaster scenarios. Gutless.
    And before anyone (most likely Hawkes supporters) have a cry about me getting political. I think a National govt would have done EXACTLY the same.

    10 x worse doesn't mean a simple 10x the numbers.
    Let the virus spread and the numbers would have been doubling every couple of days until it got worn out. That is conservative and backed up by the numbers in countries like the US.
    Now consider the very small numbers of ICU beds that we have and we would have been overwhelmed quite quickly.

    I think it does if you take the precautions. NZ has lower numbers because we have kept it away at risk groups. We could have done that without a lockdown of nearly all business.

    Our numbers would have been way better than the US without a full lockdown. We took a sledgehammer to what turned out to be a nut.

    The models have all massively over predicted deaths and cases.

    How on earth can you work out what would have happened without the shutdown and claim that a good result is evidence of over reaction?
    I'm simply amazed that the government didn't think to call you up in the crisis for your expert advice.

    We may have taken a heavy handed approach but the concept is short and sharp then rebuild. I'd much prefer that than have lingering restrictions in a hallway house. To me it's certainly worth a try to eradicate within our borders.

    Plenty of opportunity coming out of this for those that are smart and want want to work hard.



  • @Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    I ma almost to the point of thinking this whole thing has been a pile of shite.

    We have stuffed our economy for 12 people in hospital,4 in ICU and 1 death?

    Lets assume we didnt lock down and it was 10 times worse...

    120 in hospital, 40 in ICU and 10 deaths? Big deal.

    I think a limited lockdown of at risk people plus strong border controls would have been perfect balance. This govt just panicked once university experts told them disaster scenarios. Gutless.
    And before anyone (most likely Hawkes supporters) have a cry about me getting political. I think a National govt would have done EXACTLY the same.

    10 x worse doesn't mean a simple 10x the numbers.
    Let the virus spread and the numbers would have been doubling every couple of days until it got worn out. That is conservative and backed up by the numbers in countries like the US.
    Now consider the very small numbers of ICU beds that we have and we would have been overwhelmed quite quickly.

    I think it does if you take the precautions. NZ has lower numbers because we have kept it away at risk groups. We could have done that without a lockdown of nearly all business.

    Our numbers would have been way better than the US without a full lockdown. We took a sledgehammer to what turned out to be a nut.

    The models have all massively over predicted deaths and cases.

    How on earth can you work out what would have happened without the shutdown and claim that a good result is evidence of over reaction?
    I'm simply amazed that the government didn't think to call you up in the crisis for your expert advice.

    We may have taken a heavy handed approach but the concept is short and sharp then rebuild. I'd much prefer that than have lingering restrictions in a hallway house. To me it's certainly worth a try to eradicate within our borders.

    Plenty of opportunity coming out of this for those that are smart and want want to work hard.

    Oh 'plenty of opportunities for those who are smart and work hard'.,.... what a quaint white middle class patronizing pile of shite. Tell some of the guys who work for me that story as they struggle to pay rent.. you would get a deserved earful and told to fuck off. I am willing to bet they work harder than you have in your entire life.. I know they have worked harder than me. They arent worried about your patronizing nonsense, they just want to feed their kids next week. I have had 2 guys this week basically in tears on the phone to me this week. maybe you need to field a few of those sorts of calls. I have learnt alot (I thought I already knew) in the last few years about poverty and how fucking useless every govt has been about actually helping the most vulnerable. And I repeat.. National would have done exactly the same IMO.

    And you can blindly listen to the govt and the public purse paid health consultants (who will pay zero price for being wrong), but I am allowed my own opinion, and I wont be shut down by your logical fallacy (appealing to authority) https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/Appeal-to-Authority
    I dont think the evidence they presented is persuasive to the damage their result has caused.

    And I admit I edited my posts, but I would like an answer on how it was acceptable to ruin the economy for many, BEFORE locking down the border properly.



  • Good to see some visitors to our shores experiencing a common NZ issue...

    e1bc0bb9-d63d-4f15-a072-9e7772819662-image.png



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    I ma almost to the point of thinking this whole thing has been a pile of shite.

    We have stuffed our economy for 12 people in hospital,4 in ICU and 1 death?

    Lets assume we didnt lock down and it was 10 times worse...

    120 in hospital, 40 in ICU and 10 deaths? Big deal.

    I think a limited lockdown of at risk people plus strong border controls would have been perfect balance. This govt just panicked once university experts told them disaster scenarios. Gutless.
    And before anyone (most likely Hawkes supporters) have a cry about me getting political. I think a National govt would have done EXACTLY the same.

    10 x worse doesn't mean a simple 10x the numbers.
    Let the virus spread and the numbers would have been doubling every couple of days until it got worn out. That is conservative and backed up by the numbers in countries like the US.
    Now consider the very small numbers of ICU beds that we have and we would have been overwhelmed quite quickly.

    And I admit I edited my posts, but I would like an answer on how it was acceptable to ruin the economy for many, BEFORE locking down the border properly.

    Because it was a work in progress and they didn't have hindsight. They have made and changed decisions as this has evolved.

    We have a truckload to lose by these decisions made but I still support them for the most as they won't get it all right. But if Mum lives a few more years because we took these decisions seriously, I'm ok with that.

    I can live with less money and work hard again to build something up.



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback had a mare quoting your post. Was only supposed to quote the last line.



  • @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    I ma almost to the point of thinking this whole thing has been a pile of shite.

    We have stuffed our economy for 12 people in hospital,4 in ICU and 1 death?

    Lets assume we didnt lock down and it was 10 times worse...

    120 in hospital, 40 in ICU and 10 deaths? Big deal.

    I think a limited lockdown of at risk people plus strong border controls would have been perfect balance. This govt just panicked once university experts told them disaster scenarios. Gutless.
    And before anyone (most likely Hawkes supporters) have a cry about me getting political. I think a National govt would have done EXACTLY the same.

    10 x worse doesn't mean a simple 10x the numbers.
    Let the virus spread and the numbers would have been doubling every couple of days until it got worn out. That is conservative and backed up by the numbers in countries like the US.
    Now consider the very small numbers of ICU beds that we have and we would have been overwhelmed quite quickly.

    And I admit I edited my posts, but I would like an answer on how it was acceptable to ruin the economy for many, BEFORE locking down the border properly.

    Because it was a work in progress and they didn't have hindsight. They have made and changed decisions as this has evolved.

    We have a truckload to lose by these decisions made but I still support them for the most as they won't get it all right. But if Mum lives a few more years because we took these decisions seriously, I'm ok with that.

    I can live with less money and work hard again to build something up.

    It didnt require hindsight though, other countries were already doing it. We were one of the last to implement it In fact we still havent) and one odf the first (and only) to have a full lock down.
    I want my parents to be protecte, but that can be done without a full lockdown.

    IMO NZ'ers are being waaaay to passive and the media playing soft with the govt.



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    I ma almost to the point of thinking this whole thing has been a pile of shite.

    We have stuffed our economy for 12 people in hospital,4 in ICU and 1 death?

    Lets assume we didnt lock down and it was 10 times worse...

    120 in hospital, 40 in ICU and 10 deaths? Big deal.

    I think a limited lockdown of at risk people plus strong border controls would have been perfect balance. This govt just panicked once university experts told them disaster scenarios. Gutless.
    And before anyone (most likely Hawkes supporters) have a cry about me getting political. I think a National govt would have done EXACTLY the same.

    10 x worse doesn't mean a simple 10x the numbers.
    Let the virus spread and the numbers would have been doubling every couple of days until it got worn out. That is conservative and backed up by the numbers in countries like the US.
    Now consider the very small numbers of ICU beds that we have and we would have been overwhelmed quite quickly.

    And I admit I edited my posts, but I would like an answer on how it was acceptable to ruin the economy for many, BEFORE locking down the border properly.

    Because it was a work in progress and they didn't have hindsight. They have made and changed decisions as this has evolved.

    We have a truckload to lose by these decisions made but I still support them for the most as they won't get it all right. But if Mum lives a few more years because we took these decisions seriously, I'm ok with that.

    I can live with less money and work hard again to build something up.

    It didnt require hindsight though, other countries were already doing it. We were one of the last to implement it In fact we still havent) and one odf the first (and only) to have a full lock down.
    I want my parents to be protecte, but that can be done without a full lockdown.

    IMO NZ'ers are being waaaay to passive and the media playing soft with the govt.

    I don't know the results of this pandemic without a lockdown so can't speculate



  • @Stockcar86 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Good to see some visitors to our shores experiencing a common NZ issue...

    e1bc0bb9-d63d-4f15-a072-9e7772819662-image.png

    A place we lived in a few years back had a Feijoa tree which we were initially stoked about. I'd never encountered one before, and fuck me every single bloody Feijoa fell off the tree within the space of a couple of weeks. Had hundreds of the bloody things all at once and struggled to give them away. Was actually really annoying as it was a mission picking them all up every day.



  • The lack of border control is what shits me the most, given basically all of our cases are from people returning overseas. I just assumed that'd be the first thing we target, but it seems to have been an afterthought which is crazy given we shut the whole country down.

    Oh and masks... but I won't go there again!



  • I'm probably quibbling around the margins of the economic impact, but two things that surprised me as the first announcements about level 4 evolved:

    • I hadn't anticipated the closures being so narrow that supermarkets and dairies could open, but fruit shops and butchers could not. i.e. we could have helped keep a couple of smaller shops near us running rather than queuing for an hour at New World this morning with a ton of other people...

    • There has been a lack of imagination around any exception process. e.g. you can run a meat works chain, but not (non-urgent) roadworks in the open air where there's usually plenty of separation between workers (certainly on the large project near us there usually was).

    Social media went feral back when the Warehouse briefly decided it was an essential service, I wonder if that became an additional yardstick of what would be tolerated economically.



  • @No-Quarter said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    The lack of border control is what shits me the most, given basically all of our cases are from people returning overseas. I just assumed that'd be the first thing we target, but it seems to have been an afterthought which is crazy given we shut the whole country down.

    Oh and masks... but I won't go there again!

    This combined with the chaos about what was deemed essential shows the panic I keep referring to. Still no golf course and lawn bowls maintenance for example ? Really? Show some common sense!





  • @Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    I'm probably quibbling around the margins of the economic impact, but two things that surprised me as the first announcements about level 4 evolved:

    • I hadn't anticipated the closures being so narrow that supermarkets and dairies could open, but fruit shops and butchers could not. i.e. we could have helped keep a couple of smaller shops near us running rather than queuing for an hour at New World this morning with a ton of other people...

    • There has been a lack of imagination around any exception process. e.g. you can run a meat works chain, but not (non-urgent) roadworks in the open air where there's usually plenty of separation between workers (certainly on the large project near us there usually was).

    Social media went feral back when the Warehouse briefly decided it was an essential service, I wonder if that became an additional yardstick of what would be tolerated economically.

    You ain't quibbling, this stuff had a very real impact on very real people.



  • @Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    I'm probably quibbling around the margins of the economic impact, but two things that surprised me as the first announcements about level 4 evolved:

    • I hadn't anticipated the closures being so narrow that supermarkets and dairies could open, but fruit shops and butchers could not. i.e. we could have helped keep a couple of smaller shops near us running rather than queuing for an hour at New World this morning with a ton of other people...

    • There has been a lack of imagination around any exception process. e.g. you can run a meat works chain, but not (non-urgent) roadworks in the open air where there's usually plenty of separation between workers (certainly on the large project near us there usually was).

    Social media went feral back when the Warehouse briefly decided it was an essential service, I wonder if that became an additional yardstick of what would be tolerated economically.

    Agree. Made this point to the wife earlier. What a massive boon for the supermarkets, they now get so their regular business, but also that of the local butcher, baker and bottle store. Should they be forced to repatriate some of this income given it's all Gov directed?



  • @voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    I'm probably quibbling around the margins of the economic impact, but two things that surprised me as the first announcements about level 4 evolved:

    • I hadn't anticipated the closures being so narrow that supermarkets and dairies could open, but fruit shops and butchers could not. i.e. we could have helped keep a couple of smaller shops near us running rather than queuing for an hour at New World this morning with a ton of other people...

    • There has been a lack of imagination around any exception process. e.g. you can run a meat works chain, but not (non-urgent) roadworks in the open air where there's usually plenty of separation between workers (certainly on the large project near us there usually was).

    Social media went feral back when the Warehouse briefly decided it was an essential service, I wonder if that became an additional yardstick of what would be tolerated economically.

    Agree. Made this point to the wife earlier. What a massive boon for the supermarkets, they now get so their regular business, but also that of the local butcher, baker and bottle store. Should they be forced to repatriate some of this income given it's all Gov directed?

    Govt choosing winners and losers to the ultimate degree. Most of the winners are public servants and Australian mega retailers and banks. Losers - NZ small business and employees.



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    I'm probably quibbling around the margins of the economic impact, but two things that surprised me as the first announcements about level 4 evolved:

    • I hadn't anticipated the closures being so narrow that supermarkets and dairies could open, but fruit shops and butchers could not. i.e. we could have helped keep a couple of smaller shops near us running rather than queuing for an hour at New World this morning with a ton of other people...

    • There has been a lack of imagination around any exception process. e.g. you can run a meat works chain, but not (non-urgent) roadworks in the open air where there's usually plenty of separation between workers (certainly on the large project near us there usually was).

    Social media went feral back when the Warehouse briefly decided it was an essential service, I wonder if that became an additional yardstick of what would be tolerated economically.

    You ain't quibbling, this stuff had a very real impact on very real people.

    I figured it wouldn't have saved all the job losses so far, but it would have still made a massive difference to a quite a few people. Biking around the local neighbourhood there's some curious things operating and not operating.



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    I'm probably quibbling around the margins of the economic impact, but two things that surprised me as the first announcements about level 4 evolved:

    • I hadn't anticipated the closures being so narrow that supermarkets and dairies could open, but fruit shops and butchers could not. i.e. we could have helped keep a couple of smaller shops near us running rather than queuing for an hour at New World this morning with a ton of other people...

    • There has been a lack of imagination around any exception process. e.g. you can run a meat works chain, but not (non-urgent) roadworks in the open air where there's usually plenty of separation between workers (certainly on the large project near us there usually was).

    Social media went feral back when the Warehouse briefly decided it was an essential service, I wonder if that became an additional yardstick of what would be tolerated economically.

    Agree. Made this point to the wife earlier. What a massive boon for the supermarkets, they now get so their regular business, but also that of the local butcher, baker and bottle store. Should they be forced to repatriate some of this income given it's all Gov directed?

    Govt choosing winners and losers to the ultimate degree. Most of the winners are public servants and Australian mega retailers and banks. Losers - NZ small business and employees.

    Yes, thats exactly it. Supermarkets / supply chains to supermarket / Amazon are all absolutely killing it.

    Others, nothing at all. The lockdown here is exactly the same.



  • @Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    I'm probably quibbling around the margins of the economic impact, but two things that surprised me as the first announcements about level 4 evolved:

    • I hadn't anticipated the closures being so narrow that supermarkets and dairies could open, but fruit shops and butchers could not. i.e. we could have helped keep a couple of smaller shops near us running rather than queuing for an hour at New World this morning with a ton of other people...

    • There has been a lack of imagination around any exception process. e.g. you can run a meat works chain, but not (non-urgent) roadworks in the open air where there's usually plenty of separation between workers (certainly on the large project near us there usually was).

    Social media went feral back when the Warehouse briefly decided it was an essential service, I wonder if that became an additional yardstick of what would be tolerated economically.

    A limited view but, in South Australia at least, pretty much all retail shops ( butchers, fruit shops, actually there're examples of all shops still operating - just not bars cafes and gyms really) have the option to stay open and people are simply behaving in them the same as chemists and supermarkets.
    It's a pretty cruisy time around the town in the public sphere all up and lots of individual and pairs people out strolling.

    Conversations seldom feature what people are doing wrong and there's a lot of goodwill. I've been bloody impressed by the Aussie response in that it's allowed people to retain a lot of regular life and it seems to have fulfilled objective #1, slow the spread right now! We all talked about going full lockdown 10 days ago, everyone was sure of it. Now we can't really see how we'd need it.

    I've been a bit vexed by the vitriol coming off the fern about fellow citizens being fuckwits and deserving violence as retribution. I'm pretty sure I've read youse fullas getting uncharacteristically snarky to those you believe have endangered you. Yet the actual mortal combatant has only been found in the body of one person.

    You guys have changed in lockdown (understandably) and a basic lack of phatic communion with fellow kiwis may be all that's missing.

    Put me in the "did you really have to lockdown so severely?" camp - from my ignorant position thousands of miles away.



  • It's pretty early to try to draw conclusions in all of this.

    If you take the Baron's initial case of us without the stringent lockdown being 10x as bad - then that's surely also got to encompass us currently having 10,000 cv cases. What does that mean for where things go from here?

    Well, who knows.

    If you look at six of the worst-affected European countries - Italy, Spain , UK, France, Belgium and Netherlands - they're basically running at a 1/10 death rate for confirmed cases. And Boris - the most protected of protected - is intensive care. He'd be among NZ's 5 worst cases.

    And then the scale pretty much de-escalates to us at 1/1000.

    What's the difference?

    I'm fucked if I know. I can see modicums of difference, but not 1/10 vs 1/1000 - unless it's summer vs winter.



  • @Chris-B said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    It's pretty early to try to draw conclusions in all of this.

    If you take the Baron's initial case of us without the stringent lockdown being 10x as bad - then that's surely also got to encompass us currently having 10,000 cv cases. What does that mean for where things go from here?

    Well, who knows.

    If you look at six of the worst-affected European countries - Italy, Spain , UK, France, Belgium and Netherlands - they're basically running at a 1/10 death rate for confirmed cases. And Boris - the most protected of protected - is intensive care. He'd be among NZ's 5 worst cases.

    And then the scale pretty much de-escalates to us at 1/1000.

    What's the difference?

    I'm fucked if I know. I can see modicums of difference, but not 1/10 vs 1/1000 - unless it's summer vs winter.

    Why would look at the 6 worst when we had the opportunity to limit without knockdown?
    Australia is a closer example and we could have done a lot more than them and still gone full lockdown.

    The difference is in age of infected. And we could have taken measures to protect the "at risk" without full lock down



  • One I'm equivocal on; UberEats and meal deliveries.

    Domino's was advertising in their shop window right up until that Wednesday morning that they'd deliver during lockdown. I think the health risks of food deliveries probably were too high in the first stages. But ultimately pizza outlets and UberEats keeping a couple of local restaurant kitchens alive is even more business that has effectively ended up in Foodstuffs/Progressive's lap.

    Not sure if there was a realistic alternative to that one though.



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback You've got to look at all of the data. I haven't tried to develop a model - but, eyeballing the data is baffling.

    To be honest, I don't think age of infection comes close to explaining it.

    If you look at that NZ individual cases database on the MoH site, we've got lots of people over the age of 70 infected (89) that haven't died - another 149 over 60. We've got a couple of clusters in rest homes.

    That's about 1/5th of our cases. Why aren't about half of them dying?



  • @Chris-B said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @nzzp That surprises the hell out of me, as well.

    So when that guy is given the all clear and is "recovered" - both he and his wife will be in the clear to go to the supermarket - even though there's a fair probability she's going to have contracted it at some time during their self isolation - even if not yet showing symptoms?

    Surely they aren't that silly?

    @dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @nzzp Not quite accurate. He said that at the time protocols were followed but this did not include testing those who weren't close contacts or sympotomatic. Nevertheless all staff and students were isolated as soon as the cluster was identified. Under new protocols anyone with CV symptoms will be tested and from now even those with no symptoms will be tested if they have been in contact with a cluster.

    OK, so I did some digging. Turns out that response I thought I heard from Dr Bloomfield was spot on.

    as of 1 April:
    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/413135/covid-19-numbers-expected-to-rise-as-new-case-definition-issued

    The new guidelines say those with respiratory symptoms consistent with Covid-19 should be considered for testing, "regardless of travel history or contact with a confirmed case".

    So, if you live with someone who has C19, you do NOT get tested unless you present with respiratory symptoms consistent with C19. That absolutely blows my tiny little brain up. I'm going to sleep on this, can't figure it out right now.



  • @Chris-B said in Lockdown Check In:

    It's shit for a lot of people.

    That's what annoys me so much about all the people I see flouting the lockdown rules in bigger or smaller ways.

    People, today, who were wandering though the supermarket without even a fucking basket - their shopping was so small.

    One fuck-up by one person could end up costing us all billions of dollars.

    I'm of the opinion that the lockdown is a necessary evil, and that if we do well the country can emerge in a couple of weeks and get back to business. I'm sure there are many cases like the Baron has described, people facing major hardship, domestic violence and mental degradation. It was always going to be a bad deal all round, and like you it pisses me off when people don't follow the rules. Don't people understand that the reward for everyone doing their part will hopefully be relative normalcy in 14 days? And the punishment if too many people flout the rules and something goes wrong is extended lockdown? I am not sure if it is a state wide thing, but speaking to me sister earlier she said her kids' schools in Melbourne have all been closed for term 2 as well now. Anyone who risks mine and everyone else in the country's welfare just to satisfy a personal want should be fucking thrown in jail for the whole lockdown. If they don't give a shit about what is going on they don't deserve to have the tiny bit of freedom we have left. Not understanding is not a valid excuse



  • @canefan said in Lockdown Check In:

    @Chris-B said in Lockdown Check In:

    It's shit for a lot of people.

    That's what annoys me so much about all the people I see flouting the lockdown rules in bigger or smaller ways.

    People, today, who were wandering though the supermarket without even a fucking basket - their shopping was so small.

    One fuck-up by one person could end up costing us all billions of dollars.

    I'm of the opinion that the lockdown is a necessary evil, and that if we do well the country can emerge in a couple of weeks and get back to business. I'm sure there are many cases like the Baron has described, people facing major hardship, domestic violence and mental degradation. It was always going to be a bad deal all round, and like you it pisses me off when people don't follow the rules. Don't people understand that the reward for everyone doing their part will hopefully be relative normalcy in 14 days? And the punishment if too many people flout the rules and something goes wrong is extended lockdown? I am not sure if it is a state wide thing, but speaking to me sister earlier she said her kids' schools in Melbourne have all been closed for term 2 as well now. Anyone who risks mine and everyone else in the country's welfare just to satisfy a personal want should be fucking thrown in jail for the whole lockdown. If they don't give a shit about what is going on they don't deserve to have the tiny bit of freedom we have left. Not understanding is not a valid excuse

    Will it though? Wouldn't that just delay the curve instead of flatten it?



  • @Bones said in Lockdown Check In:

    @canefan said in Lockdown Check In:

    @Chris-B said in Lockdown Check In:

    It's shit for a lot of people.

    That's what annoys me so much about all the people I see flouting the lockdown rules in bigger or smaller ways.

    People, today, who were wandering though the supermarket without even a fucking basket - their shopping was so small.

    One fuck-up by one person could end up costing us all billions of dollars.

    I'm of the opinion that the lockdown is a necessary evil, and that if we do well the country can emerge in a couple of weeks and get back to business. I'm sure there are many cases like the Baron has described, people facing major hardship, domestic violence and mental degradation. It was always going to be a bad deal all round, and like you it pisses me off when people don't follow the rules. Don't people understand that the reward for everyone doing their part will hopefully be relative normalcy in 14 days? And the punishment if too many people flout the rules and something goes wrong is extended lockdown? I am not sure if it is a state wide thing, but speaking to me sister earlier she said her kids' schools in Melbourne have all been closed for term 2 as well now. Anyone who risks mine and everyone else in the country's welfare just to satisfy a personal want should be fucking thrown in jail for the whole lockdown. If they don't give a shit about what is going on they don't deserve to have the tiny bit of freedom we have left. Not understanding is not a valid excuse

    Will it though? Wouldn't that just delay the curve instead of flatten it?

    That is the objective in NZ.

    We eradicate the disease within our borders and then we focus on keeping it out - until there is a vaccine or viable treatment..



  • @Bones said in Lockdown Check In:

    @canefan said in Lockdown Check In:

    @Chris-B said in Lockdown Check In:

    It's shit for a lot of people.

    That's what annoys me so much about all the people I see flouting the lockdown rules in bigger or smaller ways.

    People, today, who were wandering though the supermarket without even a fucking basket - their shopping was so small.

    One fuck-up by one person could end up costing us all billions of dollars.

    I'm of the opinion that the lockdown is a necessary evil, and that if we do well the country can emerge in a couple of weeks and get back to business. I'm sure there are many cases like the Baron has described, people facing major hardship, domestic violence and mental degradation. It was always going to be a bad deal all round, and like you it pisses me off when people don't follow the rules. Don't people understand that the reward for everyone doing their part will hopefully be relative normalcy in 14 days? And the punishment if too many people flout the rules and something goes wrong is extended lockdown? I am not sure if it is a state wide thing, but speaking to me sister earlier she said her kids' schools in Melbourne have all been closed for term 2 as well now. Anyone who risks mine and everyone else in the country's welfare just to satisfy a personal want should be fucking thrown in jail for the whole lockdown. If they don't give a shit about what is going on they don't deserve to have the tiny bit of freedom we have left. Not understanding is not a valid excuse

    Will it though? Wouldn't that just delay the curve instead of flatten it?

    Relative normalcy means we can start going back to work for starters



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Lockdown Check In:

    I was enjoying myself until today. Then within one hour had two different grown men on the phone in tears about their situation. Fucking sucked , put one on to lifeline as was clearly looking for that sort of thing, the other prob needs it but would not accept it.
    Those calls made me evaluate this situation in a whole new light. This lockdown is taking a massive toll, that is mostly unseen inside bubbles.

    See this is why I think the UK has taken the strategy it has.

    The government have taken unbelievable levels of criticism about not being entirely clear on what is locked down / what isn't and why can people still go to work if they aren't essential etc. And I think the above is why. There are so many unseen statistics / inferences that the government will use to devise their strategy. Things like crime rates / mental distress / suicides etc on the back of telling the whole country that you can't go to work. You have to weigh that up against a full-on lock down.

    How do you decide between 20,000 (mainly elderly / sick) passing and 5,000 young, healthy people who can't take the mental issues of a lockdown and find themselves as an horrific statistic. You just can't.

    I am no 100% pro everything the govt does, quite far from it. But in a pandemic, every single thing is a risk. Not just a risk of catching the virus. You gotta weigh them all up.



  • @MajorRage And that is at least partly why economics is labeled the dismal science. 🙂



  • @canefan said in Lockdown Check In:

    @Bones said in Lockdown Check In:

    @canefan said in Lockdown Check In:

    @Chris-B said in Lockdown Check In:

    It's shit for a lot of people.

    That's what annoys me so much about all the people I see flouting the lockdown rules in bigger or smaller ways.

    People, today, who were wandering though the supermarket without even a fucking basket - their shopping was so small.

    One fuck-up by one person could end up costing us all billions of dollars.

    I'm of the opinion that the lockdown is a necessary evil, and that if we do well the country can emerge in a couple of weeks and get back to business. I'm sure there are many cases like the Baron has described, people facing major hardship, domestic violence and mental degradation. It was always going to be a bad deal all round, and like you it pisses me off when people don't follow the rules. Don't people understand that the reward for everyone doing their part will hopefully be relative normalcy in 14 days? And the punishment if too many people flout the rules and something goes wrong is extended lockdown? I am not sure if it is a state wide thing, but speaking to me sister earlier she said her kids' schools in Melbourne have all been closed for term 2 as well now. Anyone who risks mine and everyone else in the country's welfare just to satisfy a personal want should be fucking thrown in jail for the whole lockdown. If they don't give a shit about what is going on they don't deserve to have the tiny bit of freedom we have left. Not understanding is not a valid excuse

    Will it though? Wouldn't that just delay the curve instead of flatten it?

    Relative normalcy means we can start going back to work for starters

    Minus many of the 230,000 people employed in tourism alone plus the flow on effects from that loss of income/spending in local communities. Overall it's a difficult situation whichever way we turn, but I fear we won't see relative normalcy in NZ for quite a while.


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