Coronavirus - New Zealand
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I ma almost to the point of thinking this whole thing has been a pile of shite.
We have stuffed our economy for 12 people in hospital,4 in ICU and 1 death?
Lets assume we didnt lock down and it was 10 times worse...
120 in hospital, 40 in ICU and 10 deaths? Big deal.
I think a limited lockdown of at risk people plus strong border controls would have been perfect balance. This govt just panicked once university experts told them disaster scenarios. Gutless.
And before anyone (most likely Hawkes supporters) have a cry about me getting political. I think a National govt would have done EXACTLY the same.10 x worse doesn't mean a simple 10x the numbers.
Let the virus spread and the numbers would have been doubling every couple of days until it got worn out. That is conservative and backed up by the numbers in countries like the US.
Now consider the very small numbers of ICU beds that we have and we would have been overwhelmed quite quickly.I think it does if you take the precautions. NZ has lower numbers because we have kept it away at risk groups. We could have done that without a lockdown of nearly all business.
Our numbers would have been way better than the US without a full lockdown. We took a sledgehammer to what turned out to be a nut.
The models have all massively over predicted deaths and cases.
How on earth can you work out what would have happened without the shutdown and claim that a good result is evidence of over reaction?
I'm simply amazed that the government didn't think to call you up in the crisis for your expert advice.We may have taken a heavy handed approach but the concept is short and sharp then rebuild. I'd much prefer that than have lingering restrictions in a hallway house. To me it's certainly worth a try to eradicate within our borders.
Plenty of opportunity coming out of this for those that are smart and want want to work hard.
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@Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I ma almost to the point of thinking this whole thing has been a pile of shite.
We have stuffed our economy for 12 people in hospital,4 in ICU and 1 death?
Lets assume we didnt lock down and it was 10 times worse...
120 in hospital, 40 in ICU and 10 deaths? Big deal.
I think a limited lockdown of at risk people plus strong border controls would have been perfect balance. This govt just panicked once university experts told them disaster scenarios. Gutless.
And before anyone (most likely Hawkes supporters) have a cry about me getting political. I think a National govt would have done EXACTLY the same.10 x worse doesn't mean a simple 10x the numbers.
Let the virus spread and the numbers would have been doubling every couple of days until it got worn out. That is conservative and backed up by the numbers in countries like the US.
Now consider the very small numbers of ICU beds that we have and we would have been overwhelmed quite quickly.I think it does if you take the precautions. NZ has lower numbers because we have kept it away at risk groups. We could have done that without a lockdown of nearly all business.
Our numbers would have been way better than the US without a full lockdown. We took a sledgehammer to what turned out to be a nut.
The models have all massively over predicted deaths and cases.
How on earth can you work out what would have happened without the shutdown and claim that a good result is evidence of over reaction?
I'm simply amazed that the government didn't think to call you up in the crisis for your expert advice.We may have taken a heavy handed approach but the concept is short and sharp then rebuild. I'd much prefer that than have lingering restrictions in a hallway house. To me it's certainly worth a try to eradicate within our borders.
Plenty of opportunity coming out of this for those that are smart and want want to work hard.
Oh 'plenty of opportunities for those who are smart and work hard'.,.... what a quaint white middle class patronizing pile of shite. Tell some of the guys who work for me that story as they struggle to pay rent.. you would get a deserved earful and told to fuck off. I am willing to bet they work harder than you have in your entire life.. I know they have worked harder than me. They arent worried about your patronizing nonsense, they just want to feed their kids next week. I have had 2 guys this week basically in tears on the phone to me this week. maybe you need to field a few of those sorts of calls. I have learnt alot (I thought I already knew) in the last few years about poverty and how fucking useless every govt has been about actually helping the most vulnerable. And I repeat.. National would have done exactly the same IMO.
And you can blindly listen to the govt and the public purse paid health consultants (who will pay zero price for being wrong), but I am allowed my own opinion, and I wont be shut down by your logical fallacy (appealing to authority) https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/logicalfallacies/Appeal-to-Authority
I dont think the evidence they presented is persuasive to the damage their result has caused.And I admit I edited my posts, but I would like an answer on how it was acceptable to ruin the economy for many, BEFORE locking down the border properly.
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Good to see some visitors to our shores experiencing a common NZ issue...
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I ma almost to the point of thinking this whole thing has been a pile of shite.
We have stuffed our economy for 12 people in hospital,4 in ICU and 1 death?
Lets assume we didnt lock down and it was 10 times worse...
120 in hospital, 40 in ICU and 10 deaths? Big deal.
I think a limited lockdown of at risk people plus strong border controls would have been perfect balance. This govt just panicked once university experts told them disaster scenarios. Gutless.
And before anyone (most likely Hawkes supporters) have a cry about me getting political. I think a National govt would have done EXACTLY the same.10 x worse doesn't mean a simple 10x the numbers.
Let the virus spread and the numbers would have been doubling every couple of days until it got worn out. That is conservative and backed up by the numbers in countries like the US.
Now consider the very small numbers of ICU beds that we have and we would have been overwhelmed quite quickly.And I admit I edited my posts, but I would like an answer on how it was acceptable to ruin the economy for many, BEFORE locking down the border properly.
Because it was a work in progress and they didn't have hindsight. They have made and changed decisions as this has evolved.
We have a truckload to lose by these decisions made but I still support them for the most as they won't get it all right. But if Mum lives a few more years because we took these decisions seriously, I'm ok with that.
I can live with less money and work hard again to build something up.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback had a mare quoting your post. Was only supposed to quote the last line.
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@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I ma almost to the point of thinking this whole thing has been a pile of shite.
We have stuffed our economy for 12 people in hospital,4 in ICU and 1 death?
Lets assume we didnt lock down and it was 10 times worse...
120 in hospital, 40 in ICU and 10 deaths? Big deal.
I think a limited lockdown of at risk people plus strong border controls would have been perfect balance. This govt just panicked once university experts told them disaster scenarios. Gutless.
And before anyone (most likely Hawkes supporters) have a cry about me getting political. I think a National govt would have done EXACTLY the same.10 x worse doesn't mean a simple 10x the numbers.
Let the virus spread and the numbers would have been doubling every couple of days until it got worn out. That is conservative and backed up by the numbers in countries like the US.
Now consider the very small numbers of ICU beds that we have and we would have been overwhelmed quite quickly.And I admit I edited my posts, but I would like an answer on how it was acceptable to ruin the economy for many, BEFORE locking down the border properly.
Because it was a work in progress and they didn't have hindsight. They have made and changed decisions as this has evolved.
We have a truckload to lose by these decisions made but I still support them for the most as they won't get it all right. But if Mum lives a few more years because we took these decisions seriously, I'm ok with that.
I can live with less money and work hard again to build something up.
It didnt require hindsight though, other countries were already doing it. We were one of the last to implement it In fact we still havent) and one odf the first (and only) to have a full lock down.
I want my parents to be protecte, but that can be done without a full lockdown.IMO NZ'ers are being waaaay to passive and the media playing soft with the govt.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Crucial said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I ma almost to the point of thinking this whole thing has been a pile of shite.
We have stuffed our economy for 12 people in hospital,4 in ICU and 1 death?
Lets assume we didnt lock down and it was 10 times worse...
120 in hospital, 40 in ICU and 10 deaths? Big deal.
I think a limited lockdown of at risk people plus strong border controls would have been perfect balance. This govt just panicked once university experts told them disaster scenarios. Gutless.
And before anyone (most likely Hawkes supporters) have a cry about me getting political. I think a National govt would have done EXACTLY the same.10 x worse doesn't mean a simple 10x the numbers.
Let the virus spread and the numbers would have been doubling every couple of days until it got worn out. That is conservative and backed up by the numbers in countries like the US.
Now consider the very small numbers of ICU beds that we have and we would have been overwhelmed quite quickly.And I admit I edited my posts, but I would like an answer on how it was acceptable to ruin the economy for many, BEFORE locking down the border properly.
Because it was a work in progress and they didn't have hindsight. They have made and changed decisions as this has evolved.
We have a truckload to lose by these decisions made but I still support them for the most as they won't get it all right. But if Mum lives a few more years because we took these decisions seriously, I'm ok with that.
I can live with less money and work hard again to build something up.
It didnt require hindsight though, other countries were already doing it. We were one of the last to implement it In fact we still havent) and one odf the first (and only) to have a full lock down.
I want my parents to be protecte, but that can be done without a full lockdown.IMO NZ'ers are being waaaay to passive and the media playing soft with the govt.
I don't know the results of this pandemic without a lockdown so can't speculate
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@Stockcar86 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
Good to see some visitors to our shores experiencing a common NZ issue...
A place we lived in a few years back had a Feijoa tree which we were initially stoked about. I'd never encountered one before, and fuck me every single bloody Feijoa fell off the tree within the space of a couple of weeks. Had hundreds of the bloody things all at once and struggled to give them away. Was actually really annoying as it was a mission picking them all up every day.
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The lack of border control is what shits me the most, given basically all of our cases are from people returning overseas. I just assumed that'd be the first thing we target, but it seems to have been an afterthought which is crazy given we shut the whole country down.
Oh and masks... but I won't go there again!
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I'm probably quibbling around the margins of the economic impact, but two things that surprised me as the first announcements about level 4 evolved:
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I hadn't anticipated the closures being so narrow that supermarkets and dairies could open, but fruit shops and butchers could not. i.e. we could have helped keep a couple of smaller shops near us running rather than queuing for an hour at New World this morning with a ton of other people...
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There has been a lack of imagination around any exception process. e.g. you can run a meat works chain, but not (non-urgent) roadworks in the open air where there's usually plenty of separation between workers (certainly on the large project near us there usually was).
Social media went feral back when the Warehouse briefly decided it was an essential service, I wonder if that became an additional yardstick of what would be tolerated economically.
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@No-Quarter said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
The lack of border control is what shits me the most, given basically all of our cases are from people returning overseas. I just assumed that'd be the first thing we target, but it seems to have been an afterthought which is crazy given we shut the whole country down.
Oh and masks... but I won't go there again!
This combined with the chaos about what was deemed essential shows the panic I keep referring to. Still no golf course and lawn bowls maintenance for example ? Really? Show some common sense!
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Not surprising, a few muppets out there...
Interesting article by a Kiwi reporter who has recently returned to NZ from the USA.
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@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I'm probably quibbling around the margins of the economic impact, but two things that surprised me as the first announcements about level 4 evolved:
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I hadn't anticipated the closures being so narrow that supermarkets and dairies could open, but fruit shops and butchers could not. i.e. we could have helped keep a couple of smaller shops near us running rather than queuing for an hour at New World this morning with a ton of other people...
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There has been a lack of imagination around any exception process. e.g. you can run a meat works chain, but not (non-urgent) roadworks in the open air where there's usually plenty of separation between workers (certainly on the large project near us there usually was).
Social media went feral back when the Warehouse briefly decided it was an essential service, I wonder if that became an additional yardstick of what would be tolerated economically.
You ain't quibbling, this stuff had a very real impact on very real people.
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@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I'm probably quibbling around the margins of the economic impact, but two things that surprised me as the first announcements about level 4 evolved:
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I hadn't anticipated the closures being so narrow that supermarkets and dairies could open, but fruit shops and butchers could not. i.e. we could have helped keep a couple of smaller shops near us running rather than queuing for an hour at New World this morning with a ton of other people...
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There has been a lack of imagination around any exception process. e.g. you can run a meat works chain, but not (non-urgent) roadworks in the open air where there's usually plenty of separation between workers (certainly on the large project near us there usually was).
Social media went feral back when the Warehouse briefly decided it was an essential service, I wonder if that became an additional yardstick of what would be tolerated economically.
Agree. Made this point to the wife earlier. What a massive boon for the supermarkets, they now get so their regular business, but also that of the local butcher, baker and bottle store. Should they be forced to repatriate some of this income given it's all Gov directed?
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@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I'm probably quibbling around the margins of the economic impact, but two things that surprised me as the first announcements about level 4 evolved:
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I hadn't anticipated the closures being so narrow that supermarkets and dairies could open, but fruit shops and butchers could not. i.e. we could have helped keep a couple of smaller shops near us running rather than queuing for an hour at New World this morning with a ton of other people...
-
There has been a lack of imagination around any exception process. e.g. you can run a meat works chain, but not (non-urgent) roadworks in the open air where there's usually plenty of separation between workers (certainly on the large project near us there usually was).
Social media went feral back when the Warehouse briefly decided it was an essential service, I wonder if that became an additional yardstick of what would be tolerated economically.
Agree. Made this point to the wife earlier. What a massive boon for the supermarkets, they now get so their regular business, but also that of the local butcher, baker and bottle store. Should they be forced to repatriate some of this income given it's all Gov directed?
Govt choosing winners and losers to the ultimate degree. Most of the winners are public servants and Australian mega retailers and banks. Losers - NZ small business and employees.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I'm probably quibbling around the margins of the economic impact, but two things that surprised me as the first announcements about level 4 evolved:
-
I hadn't anticipated the closures being so narrow that supermarkets and dairies could open, but fruit shops and butchers could not. i.e. we could have helped keep a couple of smaller shops near us running rather than queuing for an hour at New World this morning with a ton of other people...
-
There has been a lack of imagination around any exception process. e.g. you can run a meat works chain, but not (non-urgent) roadworks in the open air where there's usually plenty of separation between workers (certainly on the large project near us there usually was).
Social media went feral back when the Warehouse briefly decided it was an essential service, I wonder if that became an additional yardstick of what would be tolerated economically.
You ain't quibbling, this stuff had a very real impact on very real people.
I figured it wouldn't have saved all the job losses so far, but it would have still made a massive difference to a quite a few people. Biking around the local neighbourhood there's some curious things operating and not operating.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@voodoo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I'm probably quibbling around the margins of the economic impact, but two things that surprised me as the first announcements about level 4 evolved:
-
I hadn't anticipated the closures being so narrow that supermarkets and dairies could open, but fruit shops and butchers could not. i.e. we could have helped keep a couple of smaller shops near us running rather than queuing for an hour at New World this morning with a ton of other people...
-
There has been a lack of imagination around any exception process. e.g. you can run a meat works chain, but not (non-urgent) roadworks in the open air where there's usually plenty of separation between workers (certainly on the large project near us there usually was).
Social media went feral back when the Warehouse briefly decided it was an essential service, I wonder if that became an additional yardstick of what would be tolerated economically.
Agree. Made this point to the wife earlier. What a massive boon for the supermarkets, they now get so their regular business, but also that of the local butcher, baker and bottle store. Should they be forced to repatriate some of this income given it's all Gov directed?
Govt choosing winners and losers to the ultimate degree. Most of the winners are public servants and Australian mega retailers and banks. Losers - NZ small business and employees.
Yes, thats exactly it. Supermarkets / supply chains to supermarket / Amazon are all absolutely killing it.
Others, nothing at all. The lockdown here is exactly the same.
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@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I'm probably quibbling around the margins of the economic impact, but two things that surprised me as the first announcements about level 4 evolved:
-
I hadn't anticipated the closures being so narrow that supermarkets and dairies could open, but fruit shops and butchers could not. i.e. we could have helped keep a couple of smaller shops near us running rather than queuing for an hour at New World this morning with a ton of other people...
-
There has been a lack of imagination around any exception process. e.g. you can run a meat works chain, but not (non-urgent) roadworks in the open air where there's usually plenty of separation between workers (certainly on the large project near us there usually was).
Social media went feral back when the Warehouse briefly decided it was an essential service, I wonder if that became an additional yardstick of what would be tolerated economically.
A limited view but, in South Australia at least, pretty much all retail shops ( butchers, fruit shops, actually there're examples of all shops still operating - just not bars cafes and gyms really) have the option to stay open and people are simply behaving in them the same as chemists and supermarkets.
It's a pretty cruisy time around the town in the public sphere all up and lots of individual and pairs people out strolling.Conversations seldom feature what people are doing wrong and there's a lot of goodwill. I've been bloody impressed by the Aussie response in that it's allowed people to retain a lot of regular life and it seems to have fulfilled objective #1, slow the spread right now! We all talked about going full lockdown 10 days ago, everyone was sure of it. Now we can't really see how we'd need it.
I've been a bit vexed by the vitriol coming off the fern about fellow citizens being fuckwits and deserving violence as retribution. I'm pretty sure I've read youse fullas getting uncharacteristically snarky to those you believe have endangered you. Yet the actual mortal combatant has only been found in the body of one person.
You guys have changed in lockdown (understandably) and a basic lack of phatic communion with fellow kiwis may be all that's missing.
Put me in the "did you really have to lockdown so severely?" camp - from my ignorant position thousands of miles away.
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It's pretty early to try to draw conclusions in all of this.
If you take the Baron's initial case of us without the stringent lockdown being 10x as bad - then that's surely also got to encompass us currently having 10,000 cv cases. What does that mean for where things go from here?
Well, who knows.
If you look at six of the worst-affected European countries - Italy, Spain , UK, France, Belgium and Netherlands - they're basically running at a 1/10 death rate for confirmed cases. And Boris - the most protected of protected - is intensive care. He'd be among NZ's 5 worst cases.
And then the scale pretty much de-escalates to us at 1/1000.
What's the difference?
I'm fucked if I know. I can see modicums of difference, but not 1/10 vs 1/1000 - unless it's summer vs winter.
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@Chris-B said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
It's pretty early to try to draw conclusions in all of this.
If you take the Baron's initial case of us without the stringent lockdown being 10x as bad - then that's surely also got to encompass us currently having 10,000 cv cases. What does that mean for where things go from here?
Well, who knows.
If you look at six of the worst-affected European countries - Italy, Spain , UK, France, Belgium and Netherlands - they're basically running at a 1/10 death rate for confirmed cases. And Boris - the most protected of protected - is intensive care. He'd be among NZ's 5 worst cases.
And then the scale pretty much de-escalates to us at 1/1000.
What's the difference?
I'm fucked if I know. I can see modicums of difference, but not 1/10 vs 1/1000 - unless it's summer vs winter.
Why would look at the 6 worst when we had the opportunity to limit without knockdown?
Australia is a closer example and we could have done a lot more than them and still gone full lockdown.The difference is in age of infected. And we could have taken measures to protect the "at risk" without full lock down