Coronavirus - New Zealand
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@taniwharugby said in Lockdown Check In:
@Baron-Silas-Greenback I had a networking meeting this morning, and many of them are clients of mine, and you can see the strain on the faces of a few of them, but I have other clients who I know had a shit ton of work on prior to the lock down, I know some of it will be there after, but the world will be different, even if they due go back to level 3 and 2 in the next 2-4 weeks.
One also mentioend 2 Dr's that have lost thier job too, although one of them has picked up work elsewhere...
Does not compute
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As well as tourism, now international education begins:
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@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
So, if you live with someone who has C19, you do NOT get tested unless you present with respiratory symptoms consistent with C19. That absolutely blows my tiny little brain up. I'm going to sleep on this, can't figure it out right now.
I assume it has to do with the fact that members of the same household and other close contacts of those who have tested positive are automatically considered a probable case and must isolate and will be monitored the same way as people who have tested positive.
The risk of getting false negatives may also play a role.
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This guy Hendy is starting to really annoy me, classic academic with no skin in the game, and even worse he is just a complex modeler.... grandoise term for a not grandoise role.. Now he is saying we could need 6-8 weeks full lockdown and then possibly going back into Lockdown as a country or in regions again and again if any new flare ups occur. Fuck. Off. Hendy I will take him seriously when he volunteers to lose his job and not work for the next 12 months id we extend the lockdown, let him feel some of the pain he is so keen to inflict. You can just tell he is loving his time in the spotlight that the media is giving him.
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@Donsteppa said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I'm probably quibbling around the margins of the economic impact, but two things that surprised me as the first announcements about level 4 evolved:
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I hadn't anticipated the closures being so narrow that supermarkets and dairies could open, but fruit shops and butchers could not. i.e. we could have helped keep a couple of smaller shops near us running rather than queuing for an hour at New World this morning with a ton of other people...
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There has been a lack of imagination around any exception process. e.g. you can run a meat works chain, but not (non-urgent) roadworks in the open air where there's usually plenty of separation between workers (certainly on the large project near us there usually was).
Social media went feral back when the Warehouse briefly decided it was an essential service, I wonder if that became an additional yardstick of what would be tolerated economically.
I think there has been inconsistency in the approach of most of the nations we monitor closely. In fact, people in many of those countries, such as the USA, England and Australia have complained about restrictions either being too harsh or too relaxed. Almost every country has had a different response to the pandemic threat, and many (including us and the other 3 named as examples) have at times altered their strategies at least daily. I think it illustrates how difficult managing the crisis has proven to be. Some of the sharpest minds in the world are trying to solve this challenge and no one appears to have all the answers
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@Stargazer said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
So, if you live with someone who has C19, you do NOT get tested unless you present with respiratory symptoms consistent with C19. That absolutely blows my tiny little brain up. I'm going to sleep on this, can't figure it out right now.
I assume it has to do with the fact that members of the same household and other close contacts of those who have tested positive are automatically considered a probable case and must isolate and will be monitored the same way as people who have tested positive.
The risk of getting false negatives may also play a role.
Righto, so the Stuff article at the bottom says a probable case is:
This is a person who has returned a negative laboratory test result but the clinician looking after the person has diagnosed them as a probable case due to their exposure history and their clinical symptoms. These cases are actually treated as if they were a positive laboratory confirmed case and the actions taken are the same as for a confirmed case. That is self-isolation and active contact tracing."
so a number of false negatives already, for people presenting with symptoms.
Here's the thing I'm trying to get my head around. We know that this virus has a long incubation period. We know that a number of people are asymptomatic (and it sounds like people can have it without symptoms). This makes me wonder how reliable the cases are - basically to be counted as a 'case', you are showing symptoms and either test positive, or be in contact with someone who tested positive.
If you can have it and be asymptomatic, then we have no ideahow many people are carrying the virus, but not showing symptoms.
Presumably this also means that the false negative rate in testing is not good.
If we can't eradicate this during the lockdown (and I presume it can't be lifted early given the lack of information), then we're into these flare up situations. If we do get flare ups in locations where people weren't tested, then I am going to be pretty disappointed.
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@Baron-Silas-Greenback couldn't like your post more. Your post about your employees has been circling in my head, and I'm getting tired of the likes of Jacinda and Trudeau talking about worring about the economy later.
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@Kirwan @Baron-Silas-Greenback - I see no evidence that the government isn't incredibly concerned about the economy. They're spending billions to support it.
I didn't think that the article that so triggered the Baron said anything other than common sense. He starts by saying that the results of the lockdown have been really encouraging but then goes on (presumably prompted by the journalist) to talk of other scenario's. Like if it flares up again, if people don't do what they're told. Again basic common sense - the worst affected (per head) nation on earth, has had fewer than 150K cases. Even if you said they had 10 times as many as reported that's still only 2.5% of their overall population. It stands to reason that you have to remain vigilant after the initial outbreak. Right up until a vaccine.
It's why pandemic modelling always has successive waves of cases.
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@Virgil
Level 3 Restrict
Heightened risk that disease is not contained.
Risk assessment
Community transmission occurring OR
Multiple clusters break out.
Range of measures
These can all be applied locally or nationally:
travel in areas with clusters or community transmission limited
affected educational facilities closed
mass gatherings cancelled
public venues closed (eg libraries, museums, cinemas, food courts, gyms, pools, amusement parks)
alternative ways of working required and some non-essential businesses should close
non face-to-face primary care consultations
non acute (elective) services and procedures in hospitals deferred and healthcare staff reprioritised.My guess as of today is country moves to Lvl 3 but anywhere that looks like it may have an incipient outbreak goes back to lvl 4. Wage subsidy continues. Hospo industry still shut down. Companies encouraged to have as many as possible work from home and have to record everyone on their premises even for a couple of minutes (couriers excepted) Schools remain closed for another two weeks Travel between regions banned except for essential.... whatever that means
I think the key to a relaxation is a better form of contact tracing
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@dogmeat said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I think the key to a relaxation is a better form of contact tracing
yes, and potential eradication in the community.
If we eradicate in the community, then a faster turnaround test and contact tracing lets people get back towards normality. Limit socialisation, but record it - basically you'd be expected to (through and App?) idenitfy everyone you have had close contact with in the past X days.
We still seem to be largely flying blind though, and don't have good answers to a heap of questions.
- How long after you get infected do symptoms start?
- Can you infect people before symptoms start, and what's the infection risks at different stages of the disease?
- Can you have C19, be asymptomatic and still transmit the disease?
As we understand this better (and I"m sure it's close), the shape of a post-L4 starts to clarify. If people are only an infection risk for 48 hours before symptoms show, then that's a whole different risk level to being 7 days infectious.
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@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Kirwan Truedeau is irrelevant for me but is that what Jacinda has said? That they will worry about it later, despite pumping money back into business to help them stay afloat where possible?
Worry about it later is a direct Trudeau quote. Jacinda has said that she will not put the economy before peoples lives, admittedly early in the crisis.
IMO, that's in the same boat, as we routinely put the ecomomy before people's lives. We have a rationed health system (we don't provide life saving drugs to some people if it's too expensive, for example).
I just get concerned when I hear people like Dr Bloomfield talk about eradicating the virus. At what cost?
At the moment if we get just two suicides for a hopeless outlook thanks to job losses, then we have double the death rate of the virus. I want to know they have a line in the sand where, as Antipodean keeps stating, the cure is worse than the disease.
I'm not seeing it, I see a pretty dogmatic, almost blinkered approach at the moment. As if cratering the economy can be fixed later.
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@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@Kirwan Truedeau is irrelevant for me but is that what Jacinda has said? That they will worry about it later, despite pumping money back into business to help them stay afloat where possible?
Worry about it later is a direct Trudeau quote. Jacinda has said that she will not put the economy before peoples lives, admittedly early in the crisis.
IMO, that's in the same boat, as we routinely put the ecomomy before people's lives. We have a rationed health system (we don't provide life saving drugs to some people if it's too expensive, for example).
I just get concerned when I hear people like Dr Bloomfield talk about eradicating the virus. At what cost?
At the moment if we get just two suicides for a hopeless outlook thanks to job losses, then we have double the death rate of the virus. I want to know they have a line in the sand where, as Antipodean keeps stating, the cure is worse than the disease.
I'm not seeing it, I see a pretty dogmatic, almost blinkered approach at the moment. As if cratering the economy can be fixed later.
I don't have that downbeat look to this. That is part of what we will go through and not a reason to change anything in my view. People are going to die and some will kill themselves and that is a sad outcome but not one that I think we need to be doing anything different because.
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@Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
I'm not seeing it, I see a pretty dogmatic, almost blinkered approach at the moment. As if cratering the economy can be fixed later.
I'm not convinced that the Govt will really understand how the economy works. There's some real risks with all governments wanting to borrow at the same time to stimulate. I can't see a way for the economy to really restart by increasing taxes and increased wages, combined with stimulus , but I suspect that's the route that we'll see taken.
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@Kirwan We also put peoples lives ahead of the economy every single day of the year - terminal cancer patients Alzheimer sufferers. The list is a very long one and as a society it is what we expect our governments to do.
I've said before - it is not a binary choice - the trick is to get the balance right, but that's an impossible task. At the moment with caveats I think the govt is doing OK.
The argument we've only had x cases or y deaths doesn't really wash for me - exactly. It's working.
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@dogmeat
Everyone knows and says it isn't a binary choice, but the govt isn't acting much like that. People love saying that the virus transmits exponentially, but so does an economic collapse. And we are about to experience one. -
@Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:
@dogmeat
Everyone knows and says it isn't a binary choice, but the govt isn't acting much like that. People love saying that the virus transmits exponentially, but so does an economic collapse. And we are about to experience one.Auckland Council have suspended almost all of their works.https://ourauckland.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/articles/news/2020/04/auckland-council-managing-the-financial-cost-of-covid-19/
Folk in councils seem to be getting really mixed messages about expanding their workload to stimulate the economy and keep people employed, and yet being told to stop spending money.