Coronavirus - New Zealand



  • @Kirwan fair comment, but that’s not really possible IMHO.

    Closing borders and publishing stories of arresting surfers, road blocks etc is still one hell of a statement.



  • @nzzp yeah for me, I reckon when we went into lockdown, they needed to lock the borders up to all non-NZ citizens/residents and those returning into a GOvt facility for testing and iso.

    Or, there are some that will argue, stay at L3 and lockdown our borders would have been sufficient...

    Obviously the >taken with large spoon of salt< figures out of China are encouraging, similarly the numbers coming out of Italy the past 4 or 5 days are encouraging, but the toll there is huge, so things seem to have a way of levelling out, but its the human cost vs the economic cost that has been discussed as well...there will be a lingering human cost as the economic cost bites too.

    I cant see how we dont come out after 4 weeks, but how they manage this will be interesting, I expect I will have to keep working from home (cos I can) with my kids being home schooled...I might bring back the cane!



  • @MajorRage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Kirwan fair comment, but that’s not really possible IMHO.

    Closing borders and publishing stories of arresting surfers, road blocks etc is still one hell of a statement.

    Why not? Once they made the decision to restrict entry, individual honesty wasn't going to cut it. They could have locked down all entrants for the full period, or done a Taiwan and used burner phones or apps to make sure people didn't break their self isolation. And no tourists



  • @canefan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @MajorRage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Kirwan fair comment, but that’s not really possible IMHO.

    Closing borders and publishing stories of arresting surfers, road blocks etc is still one hell of a statement.

    Why not? Once they made the decision to restrict entry, individual honesty wasn't going to cut it. They could have locked down all entrants for the full period, or done a Taiwan and used burner phones or apps to make sure people didn't break their self isolation. And no tourists

    And this could have let us trial level 3 for a few weeks



  • @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Kirwan I need to elaborate as my post doesn't look right. I do care about BSG, just not the people he speaks of. (In the same way in that I read about people dying that I have never known before, I don't care about that)

    If that makes sense

    I'm afraid it doesn't.

    To my mind you if you don't care about those people who you've never met you wouldn't abide by the lockdown.

    Because I'm pretty sure you do care about everybody affected by this you DO abide by the lockdown.

    It's finding the balance between lives and life that I'm not sure we've got 100% right yet.



  • @booboo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Kirwan I need to elaborate as my post doesn't look right. I do care about BSG, just not the people he speaks of. (In the same way in that I read about people dying that I have never known before, I don't care about that)

    If that makes sense

    I'm afraid it doesn't.

    To my mind you if you don't care about those people who you've never met you wouldn't abide by the lockdown.

    Because I'm pretty sure you do care about everybody affected by this you DO abide by the lockdown.

    I'd suggest that is a false dichotomy. I don't care about people I don't know, but for the greater good I'm prepared to continue with the current restrictions. In much the same way I'd hope others would make a small sacrifice to spare the lives of people I do care about.

    It's finding the balance between lives and life that I'm not sure we've got 100% right yet.

    Absolutely.



  • @Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @MajorRage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Despite my open skepticism of the NZ response and the effusive praise from the Ardern PR machine I loved the decisiveness of it.

    It’s always been the best way to get shit done. Nothing half assed.

    Decisive in how they present it, sure. Like closing the borders, but then not keeping track of people once they land.

    Does that even matter. The only people who have been able to arrive are NZ citizens who are returning to a country in which everyone is in lockdown. So what is worst case scenario? They join an already in progress bubble with 4 weeks to 'quarantine' any spread to within that bubble.

    Now that the end of lockdown is less than 2 weeks away, the need for a govt quarantine has arisen.

    Not been a problem. For 99.9 %. Only downside is wowsers taking to social media to report how a amazed they are no authorities have tracked their isolation plan.

    How many NZers have returned? 20k, 50k? I have no idea. It's not a couple of hundred evacuees from Wuhan to put at Whangaparoa for a fortnight.



  • @Rapido think the number I heard was near 50k

    The money invested to sustain lockdown could have gone into monitoring or quarantining all those while the rest of NZ largely went about thier lives?

    As I said before, I don't think there is a right or wrong way to do this, history will judge how it could have been done better.



  • @Rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @MajorRage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Despite my open skepticism of the NZ response and the effusive praise from the Ardern PR machine I loved the decisiveness of it.

    It’s always been the best way to get shit done. Nothing half assed.

    Decisive in how they present it, sure. Like closing the borders, but then not keeping track of people once they land.

    Does that even matter. The only people who have been able to arrive are NZ citizens who are returning to a country in which everyone is in lockdown. So what is worst case scenario? They join an already in progress bubble with 4 weeks to 'quarantine' any spread to within that bubble.

    Isn't the reasonw e're in lockdown is because of the start of community transmission, due to the people who came back from overseas and didn't self isolate?



  • @nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @MajorRage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Despite my open skepticism of the NZ response and the effusive praise from the Ardern PR machine I loved the decisiveness of it.

    It’s always been the best way to get shit done. Nothing half assed.

    Decisive in how they present it, sure. Like closing the borders, but then not keeping track of people once they land.

    Does that even matter. The only people who have been able to arrive are NZ citizens who are returning to a country in which everyone is in lockdown. So what is worst case scenario? They join an already in progress bubble with 4 weeks to 'quarantine' any spread to within that bubble.

    Isn't the reasonw e're in lockdown is because of the start of community transmission, due to the people who came back from overseas and didn't self isolate?

    One thing which seems to being missed here is that no one knew with any degree of certainty how many cases there were in NZ. Hard not to feel that if in doubt play safe. The answer to ask after the event isn't, 'What would we have done then had we known then what we now now?', but rather, 'Was there anything we COULD HAVE KNOWN/did know which made it plainly safe not to lockdown?'.



  • @nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @MajorRage said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Despite my open skepticism of the NZ response and the effusive praise from the Ardern PR machine I loved the decisiveness of it.

    It’s always been the best way to get shit done. Nothing half assed.

    Decisive in how they present it, sure. Like closing the borders, but then not keeping track of people once they land.

    Does that even matter. The only people who have been able to arrive are NZ citizens who are returning to a country in which everyone is in lockdown. So what is worst case scenario? They join an already in progress bubble with 4 weeks to 'quarantine' any spread to within that bubble.

    Isn't the reasonw e're in lockdown is because of the start of community transmission, due to the people who came back from overseas and didn't self isolate?

    No I dont think so. Lockdown was as soon as evidence of progression from imported to community transmission. I think that was sourced from earlier returnees.

    Just my interpretation. I dont know what the earliest was? Matamata bar or Marist college or sheep conference?



  • They “locked” the border to prevent the spread in the community before all the lockdown levels.

    At that time the PM was denying we would even do lockdown as the rumours were spreading, that’s when she did her spin of no plans for a lockdown but prepare.

    They then let people into the community from international travel on the honour system, and they promptly continued living normally. Particularly some tourists.

    If they had done the quarantine system they have now it’s possible we could have slowed this all down dramatically. And let’s be clear, that’s likely all we can do, give ourselves time to prevent the health system from being overwhelmed.

    This approach wouldn’t have ruined the economy, ironically likely to lead to more deaths and poor health outcomes.



  • It would have ruined the economy because we're so reliant on international tourism (10% of our economy, 100,000 direct jobs), and any form of isolation is the end of that.



  • They could have quarantined tourists and returnees a week or 2 earlier, but I still doubt that was feasible, but then the outside world was still going to hell in a handbasket , and 50k citizens were still going to start returning a week after those potential changes . Then what?

    I still think having every returnee arriving back into a country in lockdown, or in lockdown a week or 2 after they arrived, is the best method. Whether that has been by design or by accident.

    The country is going into a huge recession regardless .

    Whether by lockdown or death by a thousand drawn out cuts.

    I'm still in 2 minds, maybe Australia's method has been better, maybe after 28 days we'll find it wasn't. I dont think there will be much difference in the end, my hunch.



  • @Rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    They could have quarantined tourists and returnees a week or 2 earlier, but I still doubt that was feasible, but then the outside world was still going to hell in a handbasket , and 50k citizens were still going to start returning a week after those potential changes . Then what?

    I still think having every returnee arriving back into a country in lockdown, or in lockdown a week or 2 after they arrived, is the best method. Whether that has been by design or by accident.

    The country is going into a huge recession regardless .

    Whether by lockdown or death by a thousand drawn out cuts.

    I'm still in 2 minds, maybe Australia's method has been better, maybe after 28 days we'll find it wasn't. I dont think there will be much difference in the end, my hunch.

    Australia's method has still seen the economy take a whack, even if the barbers remain open, there's still been massive job losses, and then you can add confusion on top of that of what can and can't be done.

    In Sydney there appears to be no restrictions enforced aside from groups of 3 or more, and quite frankly that is barely enforced. Victoria is apparently much stricter, but with loopholes, same too with Queensland.

    I don't think there is a nation in the world who couldn't have handled this a bit better than what they actually did. But we all have the benefit of hindsight and in six months time we'll have even more hindsight.



  • @Godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    It would have ruined the economy because we're so reliant on international tourism (10% of our economy, 100,000 direct jobs), and any form of isolation is the end of that.

    Umm, so tourism is fucked so we should get as many people to join then as possible? Of course isolation is going be a big problem, but our approach is damaging many more businesses.

    Particularly small businesses that have very little breathing room.

    I just hope that they are considering that with enough weight on the 20th. I’m concerned they have an unrealistic target of eradicating the virus.

    That target would be “at all costs”



  • @Kirwan said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    I just hope that they are considering that with enough weight on the 20th. I’m concerned they have an unrealistic target of eradicating the virus. That target would be “at all costs”

    It would be well named in that case.



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Absolutely sick death of the govt propaganda being repeated by the media that NZ was on the same trajectory as Italy and Spain, that is just bullshit.

    Are you? You poor thing, of all the things to make you sick. You seem to be taking this harder than most I have seen or heard of.

    The doom and gloom around everything is kind of funny to watch unravel

    Oh you seem to have misunderstood, I will be personally fine regardless. If my business fails I have separated my properties and other business from the at risk business.

    I am not that stressed out for myself, I am stressed out for some people who work for me, they are good men who have hard lives and tough childhoods. I used to think I understood that as I grew up very working class.... but I didn't really, I still don't, ...but I am closer. When I read your post it didn't fire me up, it just reminded me of many people I know, good people, but completely and utterly out of touch with the struggling and incredibly spoilt by years of advantage. And I am sure I am taking it harder than most you know, but likely says more about the people you know. As I get older I appreciate 2 things more and more, 1) personal liberty and freedom 2) A proper safety net to help the struggling. So yeah the govt actions attack both those things that I cherish. I think becoming a Dad also changed my attitude as our generation is squandering so many basic freedoms at break neck speed... and whilst I will be fine because I will be able to finance my own future, my kids are growing up in a different and less free world , so if all a middle age middle class guy can do is argue his case on the internet, I will, and I won't let some other middle aged middle class guy being an obnoxious ostrich deter me. I know I am in the minority, and your attitude is the majority. But I don't care as I believe what I believe. And the majority usually have no idea what the heck they talking about. Of course you take that to the next level by not only having little idea, but you mock others for caring. And this isn't political, both parties would have done this.

    I just need to clarify that when I say unravel, I certainly didn't mean you or your business! God no. I meant the situation at hand.

    I am hoping we all get through this unscathed. (To me unscathed means still have a going concern to keep building)



  • @booboo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Kirwan I need to elaborate as my post doesn't look right. I do care about BSG, just not the people he speaks of. (In the same way in that I read about people dying that I have never known before, I don't care about that)

    If that makes sense

    I'm afraid it doesn't.

    To my mind you if you don't care about those people who you've never met you wouldn't abide by the lockdown.

    Because I'm pretty sure you do care about everybody affected by this you DO abide by the lockdown.

    It's finding the balance between lives and life that I'm not sure we've got 100% right yet.

    Yeah it does as I don't want to catch the damn thing, so I am sticking to the rules as it were.



  • My hunch is 28 days short sharp pain will do less damage to the economy than a drawn out half arsed approach.

    28 days which includes school holidays, plus 2 stat holidays. 18 working/trading days for many.

    Let a hairdresser or dentist stay open but with desultory turnover but still all the costs? Or shut stuff down , reduce all costs, subsidise wages, defer mortgages. Shift the pain to the commercial landlords who shift it to the banks.

    Wont work for all, for some time is money. Can't save everyone, let the 'creative destruction' begin as the textbooks say.



  • 29 cases today, 2 more deaths.





  • @Godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    29 cases today, 2 more deaths.

    and more than that recovered - so the total infected is consistently on the way down.

    'infected' here means 'showed symptoms' of course, but it's great news.



  • Great news.

    Ok the negative side, noticeable increase in people out and about here today, at the park and in their cars. Wonder if it's just the cracking weather or people starting to relax?



  • @voodoo I think bit of both...dumb arses and warm weather

    Some shitty weather gonna hit the south island and bottom of north from tomorrow night, might keep a few more indoors.



  • @Rapido I think that's what everyone is banking on. I look forward to a decent announcement from our Finance Minister on Tuesday or Wednesday with more support for businesses and affected sectors.

    Speaking of affected sectors, I was looking at Stats NZ figures here: https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/tourism-satellite-account-2019

    There are 229,566 directly and 163,713 indirectly employed in/by tourism (total 393,279 - this includes working owners). Total spend is $40.9 billion, being $17.2 billion for international tourists and $23.7 billion for domestic tourists.

    From that, just over 42% of tourism spending is international, suggesting approx. 165,000 jobs on the line if international tourism dries up completely. Obviously there may be reductions in hours instead of job losses in some cases, but it's still a lot of lost work.

    I had written a lot more, but it won't display which is annoying. Maybe tomorrow.



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  • @Godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    I had written a lot more, but it won't display which is annoying. Maybe tomorrow.

    Try adding a space after the <

    I think that is where the software is getting confused



  • @taniwharugby said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @nzzp yeah for me, I reckon when we went into lockdown, they needed to lock the borders up to all non-NZ citizens/residents and those returning into a GOvt facility for testing and iso.

    Or, there are some that will argue, stay at L3 and lockdown our borders would have been sufficient...

    Obviously the >taken with large spoon of salt< figures out of China are encouraging, similarly the numbers coming out of Italy the past 4 or 5 days are encouraging, but the toll there is huge, so things seem to have a way of levelling out, but its the human cost vs the economic cost that has been discussed as well...there will be a lingering human cost as the economic cost bites too.

    I cant see how we dont come out after 4 weeks, but how they manage this will be interesting, I expect I will have to keep working from home (cos I can) with my kids being home schooled...I might bring back the cane!

    In the UK this morning it is reported that social distancing will remain for the foreseeable future. The populace is simply too large to adopt and eradicate and trace strategy. Schools likely to reopen in mid-May.

    Will be interesting to see how NZ addresses the post tourism world...



  • @pakman said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Will be interesting to see how NZ addresses the post tourism world...

    Not just tourism - business travel is massive. Hotels, flights, entertainment/food - makes up a big proportion of spending



  • @nzzp said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @pakman said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Will be interesting to see how NZ addresses the post tourism world...

    Not just tourism - business travel is massive. Hotels, flights, entertainment/food - makes up a big proportion of spending

    Overseas students, etc.. Big slug GDP.



  • @Godder said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    suggesting approx. 165,000 jobs on the line if international tourism dries up completely

    I wonder how many of those jobs were filled by overseas people themselves? Obviously will be many Kiwis but in the major tourist destinations a lot of the hospitality staff are from overseas. They still earn and spend money here, so still has an effect, but might change the job loss numbers a bit for New Zealanders.

    Accor hotels are a prime example - don't think many of their staff are locals. As they closed down a hotel the day of the shut down in Queenstown, I spoke to an Italian guy and a Spanish girl behind the counter. Room service was by a Phillipina, cleaner was from eastern Europe somewhere judging by the accent. It has been similar in all of their hotels that I have stayed in.



  • Looking at most of the rest of the world, this is appropriate for the times. A very young looking @Gibbit in this classic...



  • @Stockcar86 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Looking at most of the rest of the world, this is appropriate for the times. A very young looking @Gibbit in this classic...

    No. I think we are very unlucky to have our economy wrecked by a govt that panicked



  • @Rapido said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    My hunch is 28 days short sharp pain will do less damage to the economy than a drawn out half arsed approach.

    28 days which includes school holidays, plus 2 stat holidays. 18 working/trading days for many.

    Let a hairdresser or dentist stay open but with desultory turnover but still all the costs? Or shut stuff down , reduce all costs, subsidise wages, defer mortgages. Shift the pain to the commercial landlords who shift it to the banks.

    Wont work for all, for some time is money. Can't save everyone, let the 'creative destruction' begin as the textbooks say.

    Can’t agree. “Creative destruction” is pretty offensive really. The majority of businesses that go to the wall represent the sweat, dreams and livelihoods of individuals and families all over the country. They will not recover. Many will have guaranteed their debts with their personal assets and they will lose their homes, in many cases their families, and in some cases their lives. They will not be able to borrow any more money to start again. They will fail to pay their debts, often to other small businesses, leading to more of the same. Recession, too, is a virus. What most small and medium sized businesses want is to be in control of their own destiny, not have failure forced on them by someone who has no idea of what is needed to keep a business afloat in good times and bad, or empathy with the sense of helplessness when you see the hurt felt by your family, your employees and their families, and the community who depends on you to deliver your services and pay your debts. And it doesn’t matter how smart you are or how honourable your intentions are, you can’t do anything about it. Because you have been ordered not to.

    BTW, shifting the pain to the banks? Like that actually ever happens... The banks will do fine. And if they don’t, the squeeze will go onto their customers, and there’s nothing the government can do to stop them.



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Stockcar86 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Looking at most of the rest of the world, this is appropriate for the times. A very young looking @Gibbit in this classic...

    No. I think we are very unlucky to have our economy wrecked by a govt that panicked

    Can you define wrecked? I don't see it being wrecked right now. I see it paused



  • @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Stockcar86 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Looking at most of the rest of the world, this is appropriate for the times. A very young looking @Gibbit in this classic...

    No. I think we are very unlucky to have our economy wrecked by a govt that panicked

    Can you define wrecked? I don't see it being wrecked right now. I see it paused

    A paused economy is a wrecked economy.

    And refer to the post above yours.



  • @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Hooroo said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Baron-Silas-Greenback said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    @Stockcar86 said in Coronavirus - New Zealand:

    Looking at most of the rest of the world, this is appropriate for the times. A very young looking @Gibbit in this classic...

    No. I think we are very unlucky to have our economy wrecked by a govt that panicked

    Can you define wrecked? I don't see it being wrecked right now. I see it paused

    A paused economy is a wrecked economy.

    Sorry, I still don't see what is wrecked? What is a wrecked economy in your eyes?



  • @Hooroo Read JC's post


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